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Forecasting the future of managed care.

Recently Uwe Reinhart, the noted Princeton University health economist, speaking at the Michigan Health Policy Forum, pointed out that the health care system in the United States has always been managed; how it is managed and by whom is what changes. The demand continues for a mechanism to coordinate the delivery and control of health care costs. Managed care isn't dead, but it is likely to change significantly in the future from what we understand it to be today.

Community Participation↗
PubMed2001

A model for forecasting emergency hospital admissions: effect of environmental variables.

This study modeled patterns and trends in emergency hospital admissions at a hospital in Madrid, Spain. The purpose was to quantify qualitative associations that have been detected between such admissions and a number of environmental variables. The following data were used: unscheduled daily emergency hospital admissions, Madrid air pollution data, and meteorological data. Time-series analysis was performed, with Box-Jenkins modeling. A multivariate model was constructed, incorporating the different causes of admissions and the respective environmental variables. Statistically significant associations were found between hospital admissions and other variables, indicating relationships with temperature, relative humidity, and mean daily tropospheric ozone concentrations. Whereas the effect of heat on admissions was short term, that of cold was in evidence from the second week. The association with ozone showed a seven-day lag and basically manifested itself as an influence on admissions for circulatory disease.

Cardiovascular Diseases↗
PubMed1992

On the improvement of demographic forecasting in Poland.

"In the paper attempts at improving demographic projections, undertaken in Poland in the late 1980s, are discussed." The focus is on the use of the LIPRO (LIfe-style PROjections) model, developed by the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute. The model is used "to project changes in marital composition of Poland's population by place of residence (urban/rural areas) till 2050.... In the paper, the brief description of the marital status version of the LIPRO model is given and the selected results of projections for the period 1985-2050 are discussed to illustrate the usefulness of that approach."

Demography↗