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PubMed1995

[Forecast of international migration, 1994-2010].

"The estimated number of immigrants [in the Netherlands] for 1994 is 104 thousand, implying a decrease of some 15 thousand compared to the preceding year.... There were approximately 79 thousand emigrants, a slight increase (4 thousand) compared to 1993. The resulting net migration decreased from 44 thousand persons in 1993 to 25 thousand persons in 1994. In 1995 a temporary increase of (net) immigration is expected, due to the increase of the number of asylum seekers in 1994.... After 1995 projected net migration rapidly declines to 35 thousand." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Demography↗
PubMed2003

[Forecast of physician workforce in the 22 French regions (1998-2013)].

The first chapter provides detailed information on the methodology and data used. As were the other projections carried out in the past by the Centre de sociologie et de démographie médicales, the present work is basically a demographic projection. Whereas a projection of national workforce uses the total number of annual new graduates as inflow, a regional projection has to collect other types of data, as new graduates move freely from one region to another. This fundamental difference implies the use of more complex models for predicting the flows of newcomers at regional level. As concerns the outflow, a single table covering retirement and death is used for all regions. The medical profession is a homogeneous group and such a decision is not irrelevant. The second chapter presents briefly the results of the work as concerns one region. In the high variant, the regional number of physicians will continue to increase from 1998 to 2007 or 2008, then it will decrease. In the low variant, the growth will end in 2004 or 2005, followed by a stronger decreasing process. The decrease is caused by the "graduate boom" cohorts (doctors graduated during the 70's and 80's) reaching retirement age. Given the duration of medical training, the decrease will take place even if the numerous clausus (at the start of medical training) rises steadily right now. The decrease in the number of physicians will be accompanied by an aging process: the proportion of senior active doctors will raise and that of junior doctors will diminish. The third chapter evidences the diversity of the various regional trends.

Adult↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Forecasting the future of HIV epidemics: the impact of antiretroviral therapies & imperfect vaccines.

Mathematical models can be used as health policy tools and predictive tools. Here we review how mathematical models have been used both to predict the consequences of specific epidemic control strategies and to design epidemic control strategies. We review how models have been used to evaluate the potential impact on HIV epidemics of (i) combination antiretroviral therapies (ART) and (ii) imperfect vaccines. In particular, we discuss how models have been used to predict the potential effect of ART on incidence rates, and to predict the evolution of an epidemic of drug-resistant HIV. We also discuss, in detail, how mathematical models have been used to evaluate the potential impact of prophylactic, live-attenuated and therapeutic HIV vaccines. We show how HIV vaccine models can be used to evaluate the epidemic-level impact of vaccine efficacy, waning in vaccine-induced immunity, vaccination coverage level, and changes (increases or decreases) in risky behavior. We also discuss how mathematical models can be used to determine the levels of cross-immunity that vaccines will need to attain if they are to be used to control HIV epidemics in countries where more than one subtype is being transmitted.

AIDS Vaccines↗