Re: "Concentration of indoor particulate matter as a determinant of respiratory health in children".
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In recent years, a number of studies have applied generalized additive models to time series data to estimate associations between exposure to air pollution and cardiorespiratory morbidity and mortality. If concurvity, the nonparametric analogue of multicollinearity, is present in the data, statistical software such as S-plus can seriously underestimate the variance of fitted model parameters, leading to significance tests with inflated type 1 error. This paper uses computer simulation and analyses of actual epidemiologic data to explore this underestimation of standard errors. We provide a method for assessing concurvity in data and an alternate class of models that is unaffected by concurvity. We argue that some degree of concurvity is likely to be present in all epidemiologic time series datasets and we explore through the use of meta-analysis the possible impact of concurvity on the existing body of work relating ambient levels of sulfate particles to mortality.
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BACKGROUND: Numerous epidemiologic studies report associations between outdoor concentrations of particles and adverse health effects. Because personal exposure to particles is frequently dominated by exposure to nonambient particles (those originating from indoor sources), we present an approach to evaluate the relative impacts of ambient and nonambient exposures. METHODS: We developed separate estimates of exposures to ambient and nonambient particles of different size ranges (PM2.5, PM10-2.5 and PM10) based on time-activity data and the use of particle sulfate measurements as a tracer for indoor infiltration of ambient particles. To illustrate the application of these estimates, associations between cardiopulmonary health outcomes and the estimated exposures were compared with associations computed using measurements of personal exposures and outdoor concentrations for a repeated-measures panel study of 16 patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease conducted in the summer of 1998 in Vancouver. RESULTS: Total personal fine particle exposures were dominated by exposures to nonambient particles, which were not correlated with ambient fine particle exposures or ambient concentrations. Although total and nonambient particle exposures were not associated with any of the health outcomes, ambient exposures (and to a lesser extent ambient concentrations) were associated with decreased lung function, decreased systolic blood pressure, increased heart rate, and increased supraventricular ectopic heartbeats. Measures of heart rate variability showed less consistent relationships among the various exposure metrics. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate the usefulness of separating total personal particle exposures into their ambient and nonambient components. The results support previous epidemiologic findings using ambient concentrations by demonstrating an association between health outcomes and ambient (outdoor origin) particle exposures but not with nonambient (indoor origin) particle exposures.
This work studied the mutagenic potential and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) levels onto PM10 collected in diesel revision plants, in an urban area as well as in a rural area in Santiago, Chile. The PM10 average levels in diesel emission plants during working hours (there is no occupational PM10 Chilean standard) were significantly higher than the atmospheric Chilean PM10 standard and highly mutagenic and with high PAHs levels. Additionally, we evaluated the contribution of CYP1A1 and GSTM1 polymorphisms on 1-OH-pyrene urinary levels. The diesel-exposed workers carrying the CYP1A1*2A allele showed significantly higher 1-OH-P levels than the subjects from the rural area with the same genotype. The higher levels of 1-OH-P were found in individuals carrying the combined CYP1A1*2A and GSTM1 null genotype. This kind of information might be relevant to establish prevention, protection, and mitigation actions to protect public health.
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One of the common challenges for life cycle impact assessment and risk assessment is the need to estimate the population exposures associated with emissions. The concept of intake fraction (a unitless term representing the fraction of material or its precursor released from a source that is eventually inhaled or ingested) can be used when limited site data are available or the number of sources to model is large. Although studies have estimated intake fractions for some pollutant-source combinations, there is a need to quickly and accurately estimate intake fractions for sources and settings not previously evaluated. It would be expected that limited source or site information could be used to yield intake fraction estimates with reasonable accuracy. To test this theory, we developed regression models to predict intake fractions previously estimated for primary fine particles (PM2.5) and secondary sulfate and nitrate particles from power plants and mobile sources in the United States. Our regression models were able to predict pollutant-specific intake fractions with R2 between 0.53 and 0.86 and equations that reflected expected relationships (e.g., intake fraction increased with population density, stack height influenced the intake fraction of primary but not secondary particles). Further analysis would be needed to generalize beyond this case study and construct models applicable across source categories and settings, but our analysis demonstrates that inclusion of a limited number of parameters can significantly reduce the uncertainty in population-average exposure estimates.
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Fine particle (PM(2.5)) emissions from traffic have been associated with premature mortality. The current work compares PM(2.5)-induced mortality in alternative public bus transportation strategies as being considered by the Helsinki Metropolitan Area Council, Finland. The current bus fleet and transportation volume is compared to four alternative hypothetical bus fleet strategies for the year 2020: (1) the current bus fleet for 2020 traffic volume, (2) modern diesel buses without particle traps, (3) diesel buses with particle traps, and (4) buses using natural gas engines. The average population PM(2.5) exposure level attributable to the bus emissions was determined for the 1996-1997 situation using PM(2.5) exposure measurements including elemental composition from the EXPOLIS-Helsinki study and similar element-based source apportionment of ambient PM(2.5) concentrations observed in the ULTRA study. Average population exposure to particles originating from the bus traffic in the year 2020 is assumed to be proportional to the bus emissions in each strategy. Associated mortality was calculated using dose-response relationships from two large cohort studies on PM(2.5) mortality from the United States. Estimated number of deaths per year (90% confidence intervals in parenthesis) associated with primary PM(2.5) emissions from buses in Helsinki Metropolitan Area in 2020 were 18 (0-55), 9 (0-27), 4 (0-14), and 3 (0-8) for the strategies 1-4, respectively. The relative differences in the associated mortalities for the alternative strategies are substantial, but the number of deaths in the lowest alternative, the gas buses, is only marginally lower than what would be achieved by diesel engines equipped with particle trap technology. The dose-response relationship and the emission factors were identified as the main sources of uncertainty in the model.
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The distribution pattern of particle contamination in nine different types of LV parenteral solutions and the possibility of correlating the counts made with two official instruments (Coulter Counter and HIAC) were studied. Two hundred containers of LV parenteral solutions (corresponding to 40 batches) produced in Italy, were sampled. Each bottle was submitted to HIAC and Coulter Counter countings, for particle sizes ranging between 2 and 25 micron. For about 50% of the products, the two straight lines that represent the distribution of particle contamination obtained with the two methods did not cross-over within the studied size range, the Coulter Counter counts always proving higher than the HIAC ones. In the other cases, the cross-over point of the two lines occurred at varying size levels. Statistical analysis of the results pointed to a relationship between the contamination values obtained with the two counting methods for sizes ranging between 2 and 5 micron, but there was no correlation for sizes equal to, or higher than, 10 micron. From the maximum contamination levels established by the BP and the FU IX for the HIAC method, the corresponding values were calculated for the Coulter Counter method. Similarly the values were calculated the HIAC method based on the maximum values set for the Coulter Counter.