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PubMed2001

Heart failure and neuroendocrine activation: diagnostic, prognostic and therapeutic perspectives.

The important neuroendocrine systems involved in heart failure are reviewed with special emphasis on their possible role in pathophysiology and their relation to prognostic and diagnostic information. Plasma levels of noradrenaline (NA), renin, vasopressin, endothelin-1, atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP), brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and tumour necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) are all elevated in heart failure. Activity of the sympathetic nervous system as reflected by NA is correlated to mortality and seems to possess independent prognostic information. Several studies have now documented the beneficial effect of beta-blockade in chronic heart failure (CHF). Renin seems to be a poor prognostic marker in CHF possibly because of the interference with diuretic treatment, angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE)-inhibitors and angiotensin II antagonist, and probably also because of the significance of tissue renin-angiotensin system (RAS), poorly reflected by plasma renin. On the other hand, several large-scale trials with ACE-inhibitors and angiotensin II antagonists have demonstrated reduced mortality and morbidity in CHF. Plasma vasopressin does not seem to possess prognostic information but testing of non-peptide antagonists is ongoing. Endothelin-1 seems to have independent prognostic information and endothelin receptor antagonists may represent a therapeutic possibility. The natriuretic peptides ANP and BNP are correlated to prognosis and possess independent information. Brain natriuretic peptide and N-terminal ANP seem to increase early, i.e. in asymptomatic heart failure. Plasma BNP being more stable than ANP is therefore a promising measure of left ventricular dysfunction. Increase in ANP and BNP, potentially beneficial, may be achieved by administration of neutral endopeptidase inhibitors, at present an unsettled therapeutic possibility. Several cytokines are increased in heart failure and especially TNF-alpha has drawn attention. Experimental studies suggest that TNF-alpha is important in the pathophysiology of heart failure and preliminary studies indicate that inhibition of TNF-alpha seems to be a possible therapeutic approach. Thus, neuroendocrine markers seem to (i) have a role in diagnosis and classification of heart failure, (ii) be useful in providing a 'neuroendocrine profile' which enlightens different aspects of heart failure, and therefore (iii) in the future probably will be valuable in the choice of medical treatment of the individual patient. In addition to beta-blockers, ACE-inhibitors and angiotensin II antagonists several new drugs based on neuroendocrine modification are on their way and might become important in the future.

Aldosterone↗

PubMed2000

Prognostic factors in ovarian carcinosarcoma: a clinicopathological and immunohistochemical analysis of 23 cases.

UNLABELLED: Carcinosarcoma of the ovary is a rare, highly aggressive neoplasm comprising histologically of both epithelial and mesenchymal components. The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinicopathological prognostic factors in ovarian carcinosarcoma, including the immunohistochemical expression of p53 protein and Ki67. METHODS AND RESULTS: Twenty-three cases of carcinosarcoma of the ovary were studied retrospectively. The clinicopathological and immunohistochemical parameters including p53 and Ki67 staining were statistically analysed to investigate the prognostic significance of this tumour. The overall 5-year survival rate was 27.1%; 100% for stage I, 31.3% for stage II, 10.9% for stage III and 0% for stage IV. The low-stage group (stages I and II) was found to be a significant prognostic factor for patient survival (P = 0.0113). None of the other factors (tumour size, histological type of carcinomatous and sarcomatous components, mitotic count, vascular space invasion and immunoreactivity for p53 protein and Ki6 7) was found to be a statistically significant prognostic indicator. CONCLUSIONS: Ovarian carcinosarcoma is a rare malignancy with poor prognosis. In this study, advanced stage appears to be poor prognostic indicator of survival in patients with ovarian carcinosarcoma.

Adult↗

PubMed2003

Prognostic value of plasma C-reactive protein and fibrinogen determinations in patients with acute myocardial infarction treated with thrombolysis.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the prognostic value of plasma C-reactive protein (CRP) and fibrinogen determinations in patients with acute myocardial infarction treated with thrombolysis. DESIGN: Longitudinal study of morbidity and mortality. SETTING: Coronary care unit at Danderyd Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden. SUBJECTS: A total of 222 patients aged 75 years or below, treated with thrombolysis because of typical symptoms of myocardial infarction and electrocardiogram showing ST-segment elevation or bundle branch block were included in the study. The patients were followed for 24-60 months (mean 40 +/- 16 months). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cardiovascular death or new myocardial infarction. RESULTS: Concentrations of CRP were significantly higher at 48 h than at 3 months, whilst the levels of fibrinogen were similar. CRP and fibrinogen concentrations measured during the acute phase of myocardial infarction were associated with cardiovascular death or a new myocardial infarction during follow-up in univariate analysis. CRP levels measured 3 months after the acute event were not associated with subsequent events whereas fibrinogen concentrations showed a borderline prognostic significance (P = 0.05). When CRP and fibrinogen were entered into multivariate analysis together with the previously established prognostic factors in the patient group (age, diabetes mellitus and left ventricular function), these markers of inflammation did not add further prognostic information. CONCLUSION: C-reactive protein and fibrinogen do not carry the same independent prognostic information after acute myocardial infarction treated with thrombolysis as in studies previously reported for patients with unstable angina or non-Q-wave myocardial infarction.

Aged↗

PubMed2002

Prognostic factors in patients with small hepatocellular carcinoma treated by percutaneous ethanol injection.

BACKGROUND: Percutaneous ethanol injection (PEI) has been widely performed and is now accepted as a viable alternative to hepatic resection in patients with small hepatocellular carcinomas (HCC). However, only a few extensive investigations have been conducted regarding the prognostic factors for HCC patients treated with PEI. METHODS: We investigated the prognostic factors in 100 patients with small HCC who had undergone PEI. Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis with Cox's proportional hazards model were used to determine the factors potentially related to survival. For clinical application, a prognostic index was calculated based on the regression coefficients of the independent variables identified from the multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Median survival time and 1, 3 and 5 year survival rates were 71 months and 100, 84 and 62%, respectively. Among the 15 potential prognostic variables investigated, only three variables, namely a serum albumin level < or = 3.5 g/dL, the presence of tumor stain and a serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase level > 66 IU/L, were identified as factors independently associated with a shorter survival. A prognostic index based on the regression coefficients of these three factors was proposed to classify patients into three groups, those with a good (5 year survival rate 91%), intermediate (64%) and poor prognosis (22%). CONCLUSIONS: The results of the present study may be useful in predicting the survival of HCC patients treated with PEI and in the design and analysis of future clinical trials of PEI for HCC.

Carcinoma, Hepatocellular↗

PubMed1999

Prognostic clinicopathologic factors, including immunologic expression in diffuse large B-cell lymphomas.

The aim of this study was to assess the clinical significance and potential prognostic value of the expression of a panel of surface markers, proliferating, suppressor and oncogenic proteins in diffuse large B-cell lymphomas (DLBCL). Biopsies were collected from 158 patients with DLBCL and analyzed immunohistochemically for p53, p21/WAF1, bcl-2, cyclin-D1, bcl-6, mdr, CD5, CD30, epithelial membrane antigen (EMA), Ki-67 and c-myc positive tumor cells. Among these, 76 young and middle-aged patients (20-65 years) were selected to investigate the relationship between protein expression, clinical features, and survival. Survival analysis showed that advanced stage, high lactic dehydrogenase level, and high International Prognostic Index (IPI) were poor prognostic factors associated with a shorter overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) times. A high p53 expression and low bcl-6 expression were associated with a shorter DFS time. The histological variant type, cyclin-D1+ CD5+ DLBCL, positive epithelial membrane antigen (EMA+) CD30- DLBCL, high bcl-2 expression, and low Ki-67 proliferation activity tended to be associated with worse survival, but the correlations were not statistically significant. In the multivariate analysis, the most significant factors were age, followed by IPI and last p53. The expression of p21/WAF1, mdr, and c-myc proteins did not influence OS and DFS. The expression of p53 and bcl-6 proteins may be useful prognostic indicators in DLBCL. Cyclin-D1+ CD5+ or EMA+ CD30- DLBCL tended to predict a worse survival and may probably bear a significant prognostic value worthy of consideration. Overall, clinical factors appeared to be more important than biologic parameters in determining the prognosis of diffuse large B-cell lymphomas.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2003

Prognostic value of combined analysis of cyclin D1 and estrogen receptor status in breast cancer patients.

The amplification of cyclin D1, located on chromosome 11q13, in breast cancer patients has been found to be associated with reduced relapse-free and overall survival; however, there still exists strong controversy about these findings. In order to evaluate the prognostic value of cyclin D1 and other prognostic variables in human breast cancers, we have assessed estrogen receptor (ER) status, cyclin D1, c-erbB2 and p53 overexpression in 175 primary breast carcinomas, and investigated the relationships of prognostic variables to the patient clinical outcome and the association between cyclin D1 overexpression and other prognostic variables. There was some degree of variability in staining intensities and proportions within the same tumor. The overexpression of both cyclin D1 and ER revealed a significantly prolonged survival in univariate analysis (P = 0.020). Among the various prognostic variables, distant metastasis showed a statistically significant association with overall survival. A significant correlation was observed between cyclin D1 overexpression and small size of the primary tumor (P = 0.031), low Bloom and Richardson's histological grade (P = 0.001), and positive ER status (P = 0.000). In contrast to what was previously expected, the present study suggests that the overexpression of cyclin D1 has a tendency to have a positive clinical outcome and a potential role in identifying a subset of patients predicting a good prognosis, particularly when ER is coexpressed.

Biomarkers, Tumor↗

PubMed1998

The early clinical course of primary Ta and T1 bladder cancer: a proposed prognostic index.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a simple prognostic index for anticipating more precisely the early clinical course of primary superficial bladder cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The prognostic value of patient and tumour characteristics was examined in 333 patients with primary Ta or T1 bladder cancer who participated in a multicentre prospective study already completed. Primary tumour multiplicity, a diameter of > 3 cm, stage T1, and grade 2 or 3 were independent predictors of earlier recurrence in a multivariate analysis. A simplified prognostic index consisted of the number of adverse tumour characteristics (ATCs) initially present. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 35.3 months, the 60 patients free of ATCs (19%) had a recurrence-free probability at 12 and 24 months of 86% and 69%, respectively, and none experienced progression. Recurrence outcomes deteriorated consistently as the number of ATCs increased among the other three groups. In patients with 3-4 ATCs, the 12- and 24-month recurrence-free probability was as low as 30% and 19%, and recurrence and tumour rates were about 2.6 times higher than in patients free of ATCs; 7% of these patients experienced progression within 35 months of follow-up. CONCLUSION: A prognostic index based on the number of ATCs (primary tumour multiplicity, diameter > 3 cm, stage T1, and grade 2 or 3) is a strong indicator of the clinical course of superficial bladder cancer within 3 years of the first endoscopic resection. This proposal is suggested for discussion and for validation in future studies but if confirmed, this simple prognostic index may greatly help to identify indicators for adjuvant intravesical therapy and to determine the optimal periodicity of control cystoscopy regimens.

Adult↗

PubMed1999

Prognostic value of sarcomatoid histology and volume-weighted mean nuclear volume in renal cell carcinoma.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prognostic value of two histopathological factors, sarcomatoid histology and volume-weighted mean nuclear volume (MNV) in renal cell carcinoma (RCC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study included 106 patients (72 men and 34 women, mean age 63 years, range 32-83) with RCC, all of whom were surgically treated between 1985 and 1995. The presence of any sarcomatoid component was determined and MNV estimated using a stereological method in histological slides of tumour specimens from these patients. The prognostic significance of the two variables was evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses in comparison with other histopathological variables (T, N and M categories, nuclear grade, tumour size, tumour type), using the cause-specific and progression-free survival of the patients as the endpoints. RESULTS: Among the 106 RCC cases examined, a sarcomatoid component was detected in 34 (32%); the MNV was 90-627 micro3 (mean 225). By univariate and multivariate analysis, both variables were significant prognostic factors for cause-specific survival in all patients. In addition, multivariate analysis of the 74 patients with localized RCCs (T1-3, N0 M0) showed that sarcomatoid histology was a significant prognostic factor for disease progression. CONCLUSION: The presence of sarcomatoid histology and the MNV, both of which can be examined with no specialized laboratory procedures, seem to be useful tumour-related prognostic factors in RCC.

Adult↗

PubMed2001

The independent prognostic value of comorbidity among men aged < 75 years with localized prostate cancer: a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate which prognostic factors apply in patients with localized prostate cancer diagnosed after the introduction of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing, as comorbidity has significant prognostic value for patients who were diagnosed with localized prostate cancer in the 1970s. Patients and methods Using the Eindhoven Cancer Registry, we assessed a population-based cohort of patients aged < 75 years with localized (T1-T3M0) prostate cancer diagnosed between 1993 and 1995 in a defined area with 2 million inhabitants in the southern Netherlands (n = 894). After a mean follow-up of 2.9 years, overall survival was modelled by Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Comorbidity was the most important prognostic factor, especially for those aged < 70 years; at 60 years old, patients with one concomitant disease were twice as likely to die than those with no comorbidity (95% confidence interval, CI, 1.0-4.3), whereas the hazard ratio (HR) was 7.2 (3.1-16.6) for two or more diseases. This was not caused by a reduced use of curative treatment for these patients. At the age of 74 years, comorbidity was no longer a significant prognostic factor. Poor differentiation of the tumour was also an important prognostic factor at all ages; this became increasingly apparent 2 years after diagnosis (HR 3.4, CI 1.5-7.7). Conclusion Comorbidity had a decisive influence on the prognosis for patients with localized prostate cancer. Because this effect was stronger in younger patients the assessment of comorbidity seems most important when evaluating the risk of early death.

Aged↗

PubMed2002

Prognostic significance of the mode of detection in renal tumours.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the mode of detection of 400 renal tumours as a prognostic factor compared with the usual clinical and pathological prognostic variables. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The data were reviewed for 400 patients operated for a renal tumour at our institution between 1984 and 1999, analysing the prognostic value of age, sex, tumour size, stage, grade, vein invasion, adrenal gland invasion, lymph node invasion, metastasis, and mode of detection (incidental or not). The survival rates were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test, and the data evaluated using multivariate analysis with the Cox proportional-hazard model. RESULTS: In all, 151 (38%) renal tumours were discovered incidentally. There was no significant difference in the percentage of renal cell carcinoma found between the groups of patients discovered incidentally or not (94.4% vs 93.9%). Tumours were smaller in the incidental group (5.7 cm vs 8.7 cm, P < 0.001). In the incidental group, 15.2% of the tumours were treated with partial nephrectomy, against 1.2% in the symptomatic group (P < 0.001). The specific survival was significantly better in patients with renal tumours discovered incidentally (log-rank test, P < 0.001). The multivariate analysis showed that the mode of detection, stage, grade, metastasis (all P < 0.001), and lymphatic extension (P = 0.005) were independent prognostic factors. CONCLUSION: The incidental discovery of renal tumours gives a supplementary benefit to patients in terms of survival, and should be considered as a prognostic factor in addition to stage and grade.

Carcinoma, Renal Cell↗

PubMed1993

Preoperative CA-125 levels predict poor prognostic pathologic features in early stage, FIGO grade 1 and 2 endometrial adenocarcinoma.

Preoperative CA-125 levels were studied in patients with favorable histology and early clinical stage endometrial adenocarcinoma to determine its ability to predict the presence of poor pathologic prognostic features on final pathology. One hundred and one patients with clinical stage I (N = 65) or II (N = 19) or diagnosed by endometrial curettage (EMC) only (N-17) with grade 1 or 2 endometrial adenocarcinoma without gross cervical involvement underwent preoperative CA-125 levels. Final pathology was reviewed for five poor prognostic pathologic features: FIGO grade 3 histology, unfavorable histologic type (sarcoma, clear cell, or papillary serous), invasion into the outer third of the myometrium, extension to the cervix, and extra-uterine metastases. Fifteen patients (14.9%) had CA-125 levels greater than 30 IU ml-1. Of these 15 patients, 12 had one or more of the five poor prognostic pathologic features (positive predictive value 80.0%, specificity 95.8%, P < 0.0001). However, since 30 of the 101 patients were found to have one or more of these poor prognostic pathologic features the sensitivity was only 40.0%. When clinical stage I patients were analyzed separately three patients (4.6%) had CA-125 levels greater than 30 IU ml -1 (positive predictive value 100%, specificity of 100%, sensitivity of 21.4%, P = 0.008). For patients with clinical stage II carcinoma, CA-125 was not predictive of pathologic findings except as a negative predictor of disease in a subgroup of patients whose endocervical curettage (ECC) demonstrated carcinoma unattached to endocervical tissue. In patients diagnosed by EMC only, an elevated CA-125 level was associated with poor prognostic pathologic features (P = 0.001). An elevated preoperative CA-125 reliably predicts advanced disease even in patients with apparently favorable histology and clinical stage, however the sensitivity of this method remains low.

Journal Article↗

PubMed1994

The additional prognostic value of morphometric nuclear arrangement and DNA-ploidy to other morphometric and stereologic features in endometrial hyperplasias.

Earlier studies have shown that morphometric analysis of nuclear size and shape features and stereologic analysis of gland architecture in endometrial hyperplasia are useful to predict the risk of progression to cancer. A multivariate discriminatory D-score using these features has a higher sensitivity than qualitative microscopic characteristics (nuclear atypicality and glandular complexity) when an appropriate threshold is chosen. In the present study, the (additional) prognostic value of morphometric features related to the arrangement of nuclei in glands (distance of nuclear centroids to basal membrane, angle of longest nuclear axis with basal membrane) and DNA-ploidy (determined by flow cytometry) has been analyzed in 39 cases of endometrial hyperplasia, seven (18%) of which have progressed to cancer. Variation in stratification of nuclei has prognostic value, in contrast to DNA-ploidy. Multivariate analysis selects the outer surface density of the glands, mean distance, volume percentage of lumen and the coefficient of variation of nuclear axes as having separate and additional value. A multivariate rule called HYPER-score results from these features. With this score a high-risk (score value >/=0.20, nine cases, 78% progressed) and a low-risk group (score value <0.20, 30 cases, none progressed) can be discerned. The prognostic value, sensitivity and specificity of the hyper-score greatly exceeds that of any of the previously described prognostic factors in endometrial hyperplasias. An additional clinical advantage is that with the HYPER-score two groups (instead of four groups as with Kurman's method(1)) with a high sensitivity and specificity can be discerned. The morphometric and stereologic features agree well with the usual qualitative predictors but have much stronger prognostic value.

Journal Article↗

PubMed1995

The significance of differences in prognostic value of quantitative pathologic features in FIGO stage III and IV serous adenocarcinoma of the ovary between a group of Danish patients and other groups.

Previous studies have shown DNA cytometric, morphometric and stereologic features to be strong prognosticators in advanced ovarian cancer. However, in one Danish study a new stereologic parameter, the volume-weighted mean nuclear volume ( nuv), was not of prognostic significance. In that study, sampling was performed in the whole tumor section, contrary to that in other studies where measurements were performed in the worst differentiated area (the measurement area). The aim of the present investigation was, therefore, to confirm or reject the hypothesis that random estimates of nuclear {ovbar|nu}v over the whole tumor, rather than in the measurement area, are the cause for the lack of prognostic value in the Danish patients. Additionally, the mitotic activity index (MAI), volume percentage of epithelium (VPE), mean nuclear area (MNA) and standard deviation of the nuclear area (SDNA), which have proved to be of strong prognostic significance in advanced ovarian cancer, were assessed in the measurement area. The MAI, VPE, MNA, SDNA and nuclear {ovbar|nu}v were well reproducible, but prognostically not significant. This study thus excludes differences in microscopic sampling as an explanation for the contrasting findings in the Danish study and other ones. Possible remaining explanations are: (i) differences in sampling at the macroscopic level; (ii) fixation differences; (iii) patient selection bias; and (iv) geographic differences in the degree of malignancy of advanced ovarian cancer in Denmark and the Netherlands. As to the latter, in comparison with two Dutch studies the Danish ovarian cancers in this series had residual disease <2 cm (33% vs 50%) less often, were less often well differentiated (4% vs 19%), and less often had favorable morphometric characteristics (6% vs 15%). Further studies are required to analyze whether other Danish patient groups with advanced ovarian cancers differ from the Dutch.

Journal Article↗

PubMed1998

Prognostic significance of heat shock proteins HSP70 and HSP90 in endometrial carcinomas.

Heat shock proteins HSP70 and HSP90 are sex steroid receptor-associated proteins, and HSP90 expression has reportedly been correlated with sex steroid receptor status in endometrial carcinomas. HSP70 is also known to associate with several oncogene products such as p53 protein, and expression of HSP70 has been reported to be a prognostic factor in several malignant neoplasms. In endometrial carcinomas, however, little is known about the prognostic significance of these proteins. Therefore, we analyzed the survival of 44 endometrial carcinoma patients treated in our hospital with reference to the immunohistochemical expressions of HSP70 and HSP90, as well as the clinicopathological factors such as age, menstrual status, FIGO stage, histologic grade, p53 protein overexpression, and sex steroid receptor status. The expression of HSP70 was observed in 50% (22 cases), and strong HSP90 expression in 30% (13 cases) of the 44 carcinomas. The patients with HSP70-positive tumors showed significantly poorer survival than the patients with HSP70-negative tumors (p = 0.045), although multivariate analysis did not reveal HSP70 expression to be an independent prognostic factor. In contrast, the strong expression of HSP90 in the tumor was significantly correlated with a favorable prognosis of the patient (p = 0.026). Other prognostic indicators were FIGO stage (p = 0.0086) and the expression of progesterone receptor (p = 0.042). Accordingly, expressions of HSP70 and HSP90 each have different prognostic significance in endometrial carcinoma and may be useful for prediction of patient survival.

Adult↗

PubMed1999

Prognostic significance of flow cytometric deoxyribonucleic acid analysis for patients with superficial bladder cancers: a long-term follow-up study.

Flow cytometric DNA ploidy analysis for human bladder cancers may provide significant diagnostic and prognostic potential. We have previously reported that combined use of histologic and flow cytometric parameters may offer additional information regarding the clinical outcome for bladder cancer patients. However, the evaluation included both superficial and muscle-invasive tumors. In the present manuscript, we present our study on whether flow cytometric determination yields significant prognosticators beyond the classical histologic evaluation only in the patient with superficial bladder cancer. A total of 217 patients with untreated bladder cancer were evaluated, using fresh bladder tumor specimens. Tumor grading (grade 1, 2, and 3) and stage (pTa + pT1a and pT1b) served as the histologic prognostic parameters. Multiple flow cytometric parameters assessed included DNA index, percentage S-phase cells, percentage G2/M-phase cells, and hypertetraploid cell presence. Multivariate survival analysis was performed using the SAS proportional hazard regression procedure to study statistical individual prognostic values of both the histologic and the flow cytometric parameters. Clinical follow-up of more than 60 months was required, with the mean follow-up being 116.3 +/- 18.6 months. Hypertetraploid cell presence was the single most important prognostic factor (p < 0.01; risk ratio: 14.3), with the second being tumor grade (p < 0.05; risk ratio: 4.6). No other parameters, including tumor stage, the DNA index, and cell phase fractions, contributed to the model. These results indicate that hypertetraploid cell presence found by flow cytometric determination may provide additional information regarding the clinical outcome for superficial bladder cancer patients, and can be used as an indicator for decision making in treatment of superficial bladder cancer patients.

Aged↗

PubMed2000

Cardiopulmonary exercise testing for prognosis in chronic heart failure: continuous and independent prognostic value from VE/VCO(2)slope and peak VO(2).

BACKGROUND: Chronic heart failure carries a poor prognosis. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing is useful in predicting survival. We set out to establish the prognostic value of peak VO(2)and VE/VCO(2)slope across a range of threshold values. METHOD AND RESULTS: Three hundred and three consecutive patients with stable chronic heart failure underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing between 1992 and 1996. Their age was 59+/-11 years (mean+/-SD), peak VO(2)17. 8+/- 6.6 ml. kg(-1)min(-1), VE/VCO(2)slope 37+/-12. At the end of follow-up in January 1999, 91 patients had died (after a median of 7 months, interquartile range 3-16 months). The median follow-up for the survivors was 47 months (interquartile range 37-57 months). The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves for predicting mortality at 2 years were 0.77 for both peak VO(2)and VE/VCO(2)slope. With peak VO(2)and VE/VCO(2)slope viewed as continuous variables in the Cox proportional-hazards model, they were both highly significant prognostic indicators, both in univariate analysis and bivariate analysis (P<0.001 for VE/VCO(2)slope, P<0.003 for peak VO(2)). CONCLUSIONS: Lower peak VO(2)implies poorer prognosis across a range of values from 10 to 20 ml. kg(-1)min(-1), without a unique threshold. Gradations of elevation of the VE/VCO(2)slope also carry prognostic information over a wide range (30-55). The two parameters are comparable in terms of prognostic power, and contribute complementary prognostic information.

Adult↗

PubMed2000

Comparison of the prognostic value of left ventricular filling and peak oxygen uptake in patients with systolic heart failure.

AIM: The aim of this prospective study was to compare the prognostic value of the mitral inflow pattern and peak oxygen uptake in patients with systolic heart failure. BACKGROUND: Peak oxygen uptake is a major prognostic parameter in heart failure. It is not known whether a restrictive mitral inflow pattern has similar prognostic value. METHODS: One hundred heart failure patients (ejection fraction <45%) underwent exercise testing after Doppler evaluation; prognosis was assessed after a mean follow-up of 17 months. RESULTS: The ejection fraction was larger in group 1 (non-restrictive pattern: E/A mitral wave ratio <1 or between 1 and 2 with E wave deceleration time >/=140 ms, n=45) than in group 2 (restrictive pattern: E/A ratio >2 or between 1 and 2 with E deceleration time <140 ms, n=40) (29+/-9 vs 22+/-10%, P<0.05). Peak oxygen uptake was lower in group 2 (17+/-4 vs 22+/-5 ml. min(-1). kg(-1)57+/-11 vs 75+/-15% of predicted values;P<0.05 for both comparisons). Univariate analysis showed that the deceleration time (r=0.65), E/A ratio (r=-0.50) and heart rate increment (r=0.47) correlated best with peak oxygen uptake. A third group of patients with persistent fusion of the E and A waves (n=15) had exercise responses similar to those of group 2 patients. A short deceleration time (P=0.006), a restrictive or a fusion pattern (P=0.04) were associated with a poor outcome; the prognostic value of these Doppler variables was greater than that of ejection fraction, but remained less than peak oxygen uptake indexed by predicted values (P=0.0004). CONCLUSION: The left ventricular filling pattern is a strong predictor of exercise capacity, and outcome, in patients with systolic heart failure and is independent of the left ventricular ejection fraction. Peak oxygen uptake remains a more powerful prognostic variable.

Aged↗

PubMed2001

The incremental prognostic value of pharmacological stress echo over exercise electrocardiography in women with chest pain of unknown origin.

AIMS: The value of exercise electrocardiography in evaluating women with suspected coronary artery disease is limited. Conversely, stress echocardiography is effective for both diagnostic and prognostic purposes in females. The purpose of the study was to determine the relative prognostic value of exercise electrocardiography and pharmacological stress echocardiography in a cohort of women with chest pain of unknown origin, in order to verify whether criteria could be established for the daily non-invasive evaluation of such a low-risk profile population. METHODS AND RESULTS: Exercise electrocardiography and pharmacological stress echocardiography (171 dipyridamole, 73 dobutamine) were performed in 244 women (age 60+/-10 years) with chest pain and known coronary artery disease. A positive result of exercise electrocardiography (ST-segment shift > or =1 mm at 80 ms after the J point) was detected in 95 patients; a positive result of stress echocardiography (new regional wall motion abnormalities) was observed in 33 patients. During follow-up (36+/-18 months), two deaths, five infarctions, seven unstable anginas, and 11 coronary revascularizations occurred. Using Cox analysis, the positive result of stress echocardiography (odds ratio=40.1) alone, was independently related to hard cardiac events (death, infarction). With spontaneous cardiac events (death, infarction, and unstable angina) as end-points, the multivariate prognostic predictors were a positive result of stress echocardiography (odds ratio=37.0), a family history of coronary artery disease (odds ratio=4.1), typical chest pain (odds ratio=3.7), and a positive exercise electrocardiography result with a rate-pressure product < or =20 000 (odds ratio=3.5). By adopting an interactive stepwise procedure, the prognostic value of stress echocardiography was incremental to that of clinical and exercise electrocardiography data. Nevertheless, the negative result of exercise electrocardiography and pharmacological stress predicted a very high and comparable (P=ns) 24-month survival rate when both hard and spontaneous cardiac events were taken as end-points. CONCLUSIONS: In women with chest pain, stress echocardiography is a strong and independent prognostic indicator, incremental to that shown by exercise electrocardiography. However, the two tests have a similar high negative predictive value in this population. Therefore, exercise electrocardiography has to be considered the initial approach and the only test when the result is negative, whereas stress echocardiography is warranted in selected conditions, including those in women with uninterpretable electrocardiograms, those unable to exercise maximally, and those with an ambiguous or ischaemic response to exercise electrocardiography.

Aged↗