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At least 955 records · Page 53Linked to original sources
PubMed1992

Medical book collecting: a retrospect and a forecast.

Medical book collecting and historical research are complementary pursuits. The author summarizes the contributions of bibliophiles who used their collections as a source of inspiration for historical studies and addresses the challenges confronting medical book collectors.

Book Collecting↗
PubMed2003

Forecasting loss of ecosystem service value using a BP network: a case study of the impact of the South-to-north Water Transfer Project on the ecological environmental in Xiangfan, Hubei Province, China.

OBJECTIVE: To recognize and assess the impact of the South-to-north Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) on the ecological environment of Xiangfan, Hubei Province, situated in the water-out area, and develop sound scientific countermeasures. METHODS: A three-layer BP network was built to simulate topology and process of the eco-economy system of Xiangfan. Historical data of ecological environmental factors and socio-economic factors as inputs, and corresponding historical data of ecosystem service value (ESV) and GDP as target outputs, were presented to train and test the network. When predicted input data after 2001 were presented to trained network as generalization sets, ESVs and GDPs of 2002, 2003, 2004... till 2050 were simulated as output in succession. RESULTS: Up to 2050, the area would have suffered an accumulative total ESV loss of RMB104.9 billion, which accounted for 37.36% of the present ESV. The coinstantaneous GDP would change asynchronously with ESV, it would go through an up-to-down process and finally lose RMB89.3 billion, which accounted for 18.71% of 2001. CONCLUSIONS: The simulation indicates that ESV loss means damage to the capability of socio-economic sustainable development, and suggests that artificial neural networks (ANNs) provide a feasible and effective method and have an important potential in ESV modeling.

China↗
PubMed2004

Forecasting changes in physician services per capita in Minnesota through 2030.

As the population ages and the ratio of retirees increases, the likely supply of physicians and physician services over the next few decades is being closely scrutinized. In this article, we use simple regression models to predict the supply of physicians and physician-hours per capita in Minnesota through the year 2030. We present the results from two models. The first uses data on all practicing physicians in the years 1995 to 2000 and projections for the entire population. The second "adjusted" model uses data on physicians who were younger than 65 in the years 1995 to 2000 and projections for the population 65 and older. The adjusted model represents a "worst case scenario" that removes physicians who typically work fewer hours from the count of physicians and retains the population needing the most health care services.

Forecasting↗