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Mitotic indexes as prognostic predictors in female breast cancer.

A series of 688 women with breast cancer were followed-up for a mean of 13 years. Tumour size, axillary lymph node status, histological grade, histological type and two mitotic indexes (M/V; MAI) were assessed and related to disease outcome. Primary tumour size (P less than 0.0001), the volume-corrected mitotic index (M/V) (P less than 0.0001), the mitotic activity index (MAI) (P = 0.0001), and histological grade (P = 0.0074) predicted axillary lymph node status. Recurrence as well as recurrence-free survival was significantly related to the axillary lymph node status (P less than 0.0001), M/V index (P less than 0.0001), MAI (P less than 0.0001), tumour size (P = 0.0031) and histological grade (P = 0.0208). Multivariate analyses disclosed the tumour size and M/V index as independent predictors of axillary metastasis at diagnosis. Recurrence was related independently to M/V index, axillary metastasis and tumour size. Independent predictors of recurrence-free survival in Cox's analysis were M/V index and axillary lymph node status. Axillary lymph node status (P less than 0.0001), tumour size (P less than 0.0001), M/V index (P less than 0.0001), MAI (P less than 0.0001) and histological grade (P = 0.0009) predicted survival in that order. Cox's analysis showed that axillary lymph node status was the most important independent predictor of survival followed by tumour size and M/V index. In a separate Cox's analysis of axillary-lymph-node-negative patients the M/V index and tumour size were independently related to survival. In conclusion the M/V index is an important prognostic factor in breast cancer and also in axillary-lymph-node-negative breast tumours.

Breast Neoplasms↗

[Predictors of early retirement and focused assignment to medical rehabilitation].

Previous work and results from the project "Identification of a high-risk profile for early retirement" were presented. The project is being supported by the LVA-Württemberg (pension insurance for blue collar workers). In this project, a two-step screening process to determine prospective early retirees and provide specific assignment for medical rehabilitation is being developed and tested, with the goal of adhering better to the basic principle of "rehabilitation before retirement". The foundations for the solution proposed in the two-step screening are predictors of early retirement, with which prospective retirees can be detected early on. On the basis of a cohort study on environmental effects and frequency of illness during the period 1974-85, we have identified predictors for early retirement and premature death. Early retirees complained of health problems even years before retirement. In particular, they complained of shortness of breath and respiratory tract ailments, general impairment of physical performance, and ailments of the skeletal and motor apparatus. Data for persons who died prematurely after 1974 were largely consistent with those for early retirees. Most prominent in this case were complaints indicating coronary risk or angina pectoris, chronic bronchitis, and peripheral circulation problems. We evaluated the significantly increased health problems in the risk groups from the 1974 inquiries as indicators or predictors for early retirement. We utilized them for a questionnaire which was designed to determine the predictive risk profile for early retirement, and may be therefore suitable as a screening instrument for identifying prospective early retirees among currently employed insured persons (screening stage 1).

Adult↗

Predictors and outcome of early- versus late-onset major bacterial infections in liver transplant recipients receiving tacrolimus (FK506) as primary immunosuppression.

Major bacterial infections and the predictors of early (within 100 days of transplantation) versus late onset (after 100 days post-transplant) bacterial infections were prospectively assessed in 130 consecutive liver transplant recipients receiving tacrolimus (FK506) as primary immunosuppression. The median follow-up period was 38 months. Overall, 35% (45/130) of the patients developed 67 episodes of major bacterial infections (0.52 episodes/patient). Sixty-three percent of the major bacterial infections occurred early, and 37% occurred in the late post-transplant period. Eighty-four percent of the abdominal infections occurred early, whereas 38% of the cases of pneumonia, 60% of the cases of primary bacteremia, and 50% of the biliary infections occurred late. By logistic regression analysis, portal vein thrombosis was the most significant independent risk factor for early-onset major bacterial infection (odds ratio 4.1; 95% CI 1.4-12.2), and recurrent hepatitis C was the most significant independent predictor of late-onset major bacterial infections (odds ratio 6.21; 95% CI 1.9-20.2). Thus, sources and risk factors differ for early versus late-onset bacterial infections after liver transplantation. Knowledge of the differences in the potential sources, the pathogens, and the predictors of early versus late-onset bacterial infections can be valuable in the evaluation and empiric treatment of liver transplant recipients with bacterial infections.

Adult↗

Clinical predictors of completed suicide and repeated self-poisoning in 8895 self-poisoning patients.

The diagnoses of 8895 patients who were admitted for intentional self-poisoning with psycho-active drugs were studied in order to find predictors for subsequent completed suicide and repeated self-poisoning. Automated record linkage by means of the Swedish personal identification numbers was performed between the Stockholm County inpatient registry and the cause-of-death registry. With Cox regression models, several diagnostic predictors were identified although they were generally unspecific and insensitive. This may be due both to the low base rate of suicides, and to the omission of other more powerful non-clinical predictors, such as personality traits, hopelessness and social disruption. It is concluded that secondary psychiatric prevention may still be justified, although it will be applied to large numbers of patients who will not eventually commit suicide or repeat self-poisoning.

Adult↗

Cultural diversity in the predictors of adolescent cigarette smoking: the relative influence of peers.

A culturally diverse sample of 4375 adolescents completed a self-report inventory assessing their current amount of smoking, and several psychosocial predictors of smoking (e.g., depression, anger, stress, smoking among peers, etc). Results revealed that Whites smoke more than Blacks, Asians, and less acculturated Latinos but not more than highly acculturated Latinos. Stepwise regression analyses of the predictors of smoking found significant ethnic and acculturation differences in the relative predictive power of 18 well-known risk factors. Smoking among peers was the best predictor of smoking for White adolescents (accounting for 23.5% of the variance) but accounted for only 15% of the variance for Latino youth, 9.6% of the variance for Asian youth, and none of the variance for Black youth. Results are discussed in terms of their implications for smoking prevention programs that focus on resisting peer influences.

Acculturation↗

Carcinoma of the rectum. Possible cellular predictors of metastatic potential and response to radiation therapy.

BACKGROUND: Preoperative radiation therapy can markedly improve local control of rectal carcinoma. However, some tumors do not respond well to moderate doses of preoperative radiation and would be better served by more aggressive preoperative treatment (e.g., chemoradiotherapy). Cellular predictors of responsiveness to radiation can help to select lesions for more aggressive treatment. In addition, there is a need for cellular predictors of metastatic potential. This is particularly important in the setting of preoperative radiation-downstaging by preoperative treatment can obscure the true pathologic stage of a tumor and confound the usual selection criteria for postoperative chemotherapy. PURPOSE: This study was undertaken to determine if proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA), p53, DNA ploidy, and S-phase fraction are associated with response to radiation and/or risk for distant metastatic disease and to determine if these cellular markers are best evaluated from preradiation biopsy specimen or the larger (but possibly altered) final surgical specimen. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Archival specimens from 23 cases of ultrasound T3 or T4 rectal carcinoma treated preoperatively with radiation therapy were reviewed. Eligible lesions had preradiation biopsy specimens of sufficient size for flow cytometric review of archival tissue. Factors considered included PCNA positivity, presence of mutant nuclear p53, more than 30 percent tumor cells in S-phase, and presence of aneuploidy. RESULTS: With a median follow-up of three years, overall freedom from relapse was 83 percent, with all but one failure being extrapelvic. PCNA positivity in the preradiation specimen was significantly (P = 0.025) associated with a greater risk of tumor recurrence. In addition, there was a trend to greater likelihood of "probable downstaging" (defined as surgical T stage less than preradiation ultrasound T stage) for lesions that were PCNA-negative or lesions with normal p53. Biomarkers measured in the postradiation surgical specimen were not associated with either freedom from relapse or response to radiation. Radiation treatment appeared to produce false-negatives in the final specimen. Thus, there were significantly more specimens converting from PCNA-positive to PCNA-negative after preoperative radiation than would be expected solely on the basis of sampling errors (P = 0.004). Similar results were found for abnormal p53 findings (P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Prospective studies of biomarkers should be based on pretreatment specimens if preoperative radiation is given. For carcinoma of the rectum, PCNA and p53 may be useful predictors of both metastatic potential and responsiveness to radiation.

Adenocarcinoma↗

Urges to smoke during the first month of abstinence: relationship to relapse and predictors.

The urges to smoke reported by 215 former smokers were measured 1 day, 7 days, 14 days and 30 days after they quit to examine: (a) the time course of smoking urges, (b) the relationship of urges to relapse, and (c) predictors of urges to smoke. Urges to smoke were strongest 1 day after quitting, and decreased at each subsequent measurement point. Urges were a powerful predictor of relapse. At each of the four assessment points, abstinent subjects who reported stronger urges to smoke were more likely to relapse by the next measurement point. Urges to smoke at a given day (e.g., day 1) were consistently the best predictors of the persistence of urges at the next assessment (e.g., day 7). Greater negative emotion (e.g., anxiety, sadness, anger, and confusion) and psychosocial stress also predicted stronger urges to smoke. Nicotine gum significantly reduced urges during week 1 post-cessation. Clinical implications of the findings are discussed.

Adult↗

Predictors of antipsychotic medication change.

Atypical antipsychotics account for more than 60% of antipsychotic prescriptions written for the treatment of schizophrenia. While switching from one antipsychotic to another is a dynamic process, there has been no research on individual patient and institutional characteristics that predict antipsychotic switching. VA national administrative data were used to identify patients (n = 9660) with schizophrenia maintained on antipsychotic medication. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of medication switching. Independent variables included information about service utilization, sociodemographic and clinical variables as well as institutional characteristics. This model was repeated for more specific switches between classes of medications and between specific medications. High levels of outpatient and inpatient service use were the most powerful predictors of switching. Sociodemographic, institutional, diagnostic, and functional measures were also predictive in some cases. Controlling for independent sociodemographic, diagnostic, and functional measures, frequency of clinical contact was the most robust predictor of switching antipsychotics.

Activities of Daily Living↗

Predictors of breast-conserving surgery in Connecticut, 1990-1992.

BACKGROUND: Breast-conserving surgery (BCS) has been recommended for most early-stage primary breast cancers, but predictors may vary by time and geographic area. METHODS: Among 5,266 early-stage female breast cancers (diagnosed in 1990-1992) in the population-based Connecticut Tumor Registry, the poverty rate of census tract of residence (an ecologic indicator of socioeconomic status), age at diagnosis, race, marital status, extent of disease, year of diagnosis, and town of residence were analyzed in relation to BCS use. RESULTS: The poverty rate of census tract was not a statistically significant variable in logistic regression analyses of BCS use; however, age, year of diagnosis, and stage at diagnosis were predictors. Residence in a town with a hospital having radiotherapy facilities or near a university hospital were not predictors of BCS use. High BCS rates (69-94% vs. 49% statewide) were found for residents of a cluster of seven contiguous towns associated with a single (nonuniversity) hospital. CONCLUSIONS: BCS was not associated with poverty level of area of residence but continued to be lower for larger or node-positive cancers. Attitudes and practices of local physicians were hypothesized as being important in explaining variation in BCS use by town of residence.

Breast Neoplasms↗

Clinical predictors of treatment reduction in hypertensive patients.

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate that some hypertensive patients under good blood pressure (BP) control can reduce medications, and to identify predictors of successful reduction. DESIGN: Observational study with 11-month follow-up. SETTING: Outpatient hypertension clinic at the Seattle Veterans Administration Hospital. PATIENTS: 59 males (51% of those eligible) with diastolic BP less than 95 mm Hg for greater than or equal to 6 months; 57 patients (97%) completed the study. INTERVENTION: Gradual reduction of medications unless diastolic BP rose above 95 mm Hg. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Intensity of treatment with BP medications was assessed using a scale of their comparative "vigors." 35 patients (59%) reduced medications successfully. By the end of the study, systolic BP had risen by 8.2 +/- 12.3 mm Hg (mean +/- SD) in successful patients, while diastolic BP did not change significantly. Two predictors of treatment reduction were statistically significant in both univariate and multivariate analyses: successful patients had been treated more intensively (2.7 +/- 1.7 vs. 1.3 +/- 0.5 "vigor units," p = 0.0001), and they had been enrolled in the clinic longer (5.5 +/- 3.0 vs. 3.1 +/- 2.3 years, p = 0.003). Lower systolic BP, higher urinary sodium excretion, lower compliance, and younger age were significant predictors of treatment reduction on univariate analysis only. Age less than or equal to 65 years had the highest sensitivity (86%) for treatment reduction, while treatment with two or more "vigor units" had the highest specificity (79%) and likelihood ratio (3.3). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment reduction is feasible in many well-controlled hypertensives, though systolic BP rises. Patients with high intensity and long duration of treatment are most likely to reduce medications successfully.

Antihypertensive Agents↗

Predictors of participant retention in two chemoprevention feasibility trials.

Retention of participants for intervention and follow-up activities is critical in cancer chemoprevention trials. Little has been published about retention patterns and predictors of retention in prevention studies. The Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial (CARET) provides an opportunity to study retention of volunteer participants in a large, long-term clinical trial. Two pilot studies were conducted in different populations to test the feasibility of critical strategies for the long-term study. Thirteen percent of the asbestos-exposed workers and 18% of the smokers became inactive during the pilot study. Of those remaining active, all but 2% of asbestos-exposed workers pilot study participants and 5% of smokers pilot study participants chose to participate in the full-scale efficacy trial. Five baseline predictors of inactivity for the asbestos-exposed participants emerged: being non-White, being a current smoker, having a history of high blood pressure at baseline, reporting two or more increases in symptoms during the placebo run-in, and having higher baseline levels of negative mental health measures (i.e. anxiety, depression, and fatigue). The only significant predictor of inactivity for smoker pilot participants was reporting symptoms during the placebo run-in. The most frequently reported reasons for becoming inactive during the pilot studies were general health issues and problems and symptoms that were seen as specific to the CARET vitamins. These findings suggest areas that could be tested to optimize retention in clinical trials.

Aged↗

Changing predictors of postoperative mortality in acute type A aortic dissection. Is only coronary artery compromise significant?

OBJECTIVES: Rapid emergency transport and early diagnosis and surgical treatment for acute type A aortic dissection have improved postoperative survival, which has, however, plateaued at about 80%. End-organ malperfusion is regarded as a strong predictor of postoperative mortality, replacing factors such as cardiac tamponade complications, aortic rupture, and left ventricular dysfunction due to aortic insufficiency. It is thus important to reevaluate risk factors for surgical death to assess current therapeutic strategies. METHODS: We statistically analyzed potential risk factors for perioperative death in 88 patients undergoing surgical repair for type A aortic dissection between January 1990 and December 1999. RESULTS: Univariate analysis showed that cardiopulmonary arrest (adjusted odds ratio: 13.78; p < 0.01) and malperfusion of more than 1 vital organ (adjusted odds ratio 4.97, p < 0.01), especially myocardial ischemia due to coronary artery dissection (adjusted odds ratio 3.21, p < 0.05), significantly increased the likelihood of operative death. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed only cardiopulmonary arrest (p < 0.01) and concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting necessitated in cases complicated by evolving myocardial infarction (p < 0.05) to be independent predictors of postoperative mortality. CONCLUSION: Preoperative complication from coronary dissection was the most important predictor of early postoperative mortality in this series. In such cases, rapid surgical intervention before myocardial infarction develops is vital to saving lives.

Acute Disease↗

Increased body mass index per se is not a predictor of difficult laryngoscopy.

PURPOSE: We investigated the association between morbid obesity and difficult laryngoscopy (DL). METHODS: In a prospective, controlled study we evaluated the impact of different variables on the prediction of DL in 200 morbidly obese (study group-SG), and 1272 non-obese (control group-CG) patients undergoing elective surgery. Variables assessed included age, sex, body mass index (BMI), protruding, loose, and missing upper teeth, thyro-mental distance, temporo-mandibular joint (TMJ) function, neck extension, and Mallampati class. A Cormack grade III or IV was considered DL. RESULTS: The SG patients were younger (P < 0.000), there were more females in the SG (P < 0.000) and more in the SG had teeth problems (P = 0.026). More patients in the SG (10% vs 1%), had obstructive sleep apnea (P < 0.001) with 90% of them in the SG having a grade III laryngoscopy. High BMI did not affect the laryngoscopy difficulty (P = 0.56). Multivariable regression analysis revealed that morbid obesity, increased age, male sex, pathology of TMJ, and higher Mallampati class, were independent predictors of DL. When interaction between the predictors and the group was added to the multivariable model, the SG was no longer a predictor by itself, rather its association with abnormal upper teeth turned to be significant for prediction of DL. CONCLUSIONS: Increased age, male sex, TMJ pathology, Mallampati 3 and 4, a history of obstructive sleep apnea and abnormal upper teeth were associated with a higher incidence of DL. The magnitude of BMI had no influence on difficulty with laryngoscopy.

Adult↗

Nosocomial bacteremia in very old patients: predictors of mortality.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Nosocomial Bacteremia (NB) is associated with high mortality in elderly patients. To determine specific prognostic factors for 7- and 30-day mortality in elderly patients with NB, we analysed the characteristics of 62 NB patients, retrospectively. METHODS: This retrospective study concerns 62 cases of NB diagnosed within a 3-year period in a geriatric department. Bacteremia is described according to CDC definitions. Epidemiological characteristics, co-morbidities, clinical (activities of daily living (ADL) before NB) and biological findings (neutrophil count, lymphocyte count, albuminemia before NB) were collected for each patient. A systemic clinical reaction was defined by the presence of one of the following parameters: chills, hypothermia <36 degrees C or hyperthermia >38.5 degrees C, or shock. Types of micro-organism and source of NB were also collected. All variables were analysed for mortality at day 7 (7-day mortality) and at day 30 (30-day mortality). RESULTS: The 7-day mortality rate was 21% and the 30-day rate was 45%. In multivariate analysis, 7-day mortality was only associated with the absence of systemic clinical reaction [OR 9.7 (3.7-25.7)]. Again, in multivariate analysis, 30-day mortality was associated with an ADL score <2 [OR 8.3 (4.3-16.4)] and cocci gram positive NB [OR= 3.6 (1.9-6.9)]. CONCLUSIONS: The absence of any systemic clinical reaction as a single independent predictor for 7-day mortality suggests either a poorer immune response to nosocomial bacteremia or a delay in diagnosis. Functional status was the strongest predictor for 30-day mortality. In this population, further prospective studies need to include these factors to evaluate predictors of mortality for serious infectious diseases.

Aged↗

Predictors of mortality after hip fracture: results from 1-year follow-up.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The study investigates one-year mortality risk associated with hip fracture in elderly people, and pre-fracture characteristics and events occurring during the acute phase which may represent significant predictors for acute and long-term mortality. METHODS: The study is a prospective cohort study of 252 patients aged 70 and older, consecutively admitted with hip fracture to the Division of Orthopedic Surgery of the Galliera Hospital of Genoa, Italy. At admission, each subject received a standardized diagnostic evaluation, including demographic variables, biochemical markers of nutritional status and basic medical, functional and cognitive assessment. Patients were followed by telephone interviews at three months, six months and one year after fracture. The relationship between mortality and the risk factors recorded was assessed using logistic regression models. RESULTS: 248 patients were eligible. Cumulative mortality was 4.8% during hospital stay, and 12.5% at 3, 18.9% at 6 and 24% at 12 months. The risk factors significantly associated with mortality were: sex, Acute Physiology Score (APS), comorbidity, functional and cognitive status, and albumin levels. In multivariate models, albumin below 3 g/dL remained the only significant predictor of in-hospital mortality (OR 6,8, 95% CI 1.56-29,7, p<0.001); functional status and comorbidity were significant risk factors of mortality after 6 and 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: These findings confirm the important role of serum albumin in assessing in-hospital health status and defining its role as a strong predictor of early and late mortality after hospital discharge. They also emphasize the effects of comorbidity and functional impairment on long-term mortality after hip fracture. Identifying these predictive factors may be helpful in improving case management during hospital stay and more accurate discharge planning.

Aged↗

Predictors of aspiration pneumonia: how important is dysphagia?

Aspiration pneumonia is a major cause of morbidity and mortality among the elderly who are hospitalized or in nursing homes. Multiple risk factors for pneumonia have been identified, but no study has effectively compared the relative risk of factors in several different categories, including dysphagia. In this prospective outcomes study, 189 elderly subjects were recruited from the outpatient clinics, inpatient acute care wards, and the nursing home care center at the VA Medical Center in Ann Arbor, Michigan. They were given a variety of assessments to determine oropharyngeal and esophageal swallowing and feeding status, functional status, medical status, and oral/dental status. The subjects were followed for up to 4 years for an outcome of verified aspiration pneumonia. Bivariate analyses identified several factors as significantly associated with pneumonia. Logistic regression analyses then identified the significant predictors of aspiration pneumonia. The best predictors, in one or more groups of subjects, were dependent for feeding, dependent for oral care, number of decayed teeth, tube feeding, more than one medical diagnosis, number of medications, and smoking. The role that each of the significant predictors might play was described in relation to the pathogenesis of aspiration pneumonia. Dysphagia was concluded to be an important risk for aspiration pneumonia, but generally not sufficient to cause pneumonia unless other risk factors are present as well. A dependency upon others for feeding emerged as the dominant risk factor, with an odds ratio of 19.98 in a logistic regression model that excluded tube-fed patients.

Activities of Daily Living↗

Impaired beta cell glucose sensitivity and whole-body insulin sensitivity as predictors of hyperglycaemia in non-diabetic subjects.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this prospective study was to investigate predictors of deteriorating glucose tolerance in subjects of British extraction. METHODS: A total of 156 non-diabetic subjects (86 with a family history of type 2 diabetes) underwent a 75-g OGTT and anthropometric assessment at baseline and 5 years later. Pancreatic beta cell function and whole-body insulin sensitivity were studied by model assessment. Subjects were classified as progressors if glucose tolerance moved one or more steps from normal, impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance and diabetes over the follow-up period. RESULTS: At baseline, the progressors (n=22) had increased adiposity and a higher proportion of familial diabetes and abnormal glucose tolerance than non-progressors. Baseline pancreatic beta cell sensitivity to changes in glucose (p<0.02) and whole-body insulin sensitivity (p<0.0001) were decreased in the progressors. Logistic regression revealed that baseline and follow-up changes in beta cell glucose sensitivity and insulin sensitivity, rather than the classical clinical predictors (adiposity, familial diabetes and glucose levels), were the key independent predictors of progression (explaining over 50% of the progression). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Impaired pancreatic beta cell glucose sensing and whole-body insulin sensitivity predict progression to hyperglycaemia. Strikingly, these pathophysiological changes override the importance of the clinical risk factors and highlight potential metabolic targets for prevention strategies.

Adult↗

Anaemia in diabetic patients with chronic kidney disease--prevalence and predictors.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We investigated the relationship between haemoglobin (Hb) and diabetes in patients with renal disease. SUBJECTS, MATERIALS AND METHODS: All adult patients with stable chronic kidney disease attending renal or diabetic outpatient clinics in a six-month period were identified. Patients' notes and electronic patient records were used to build a comprehensive biochemical and clinical database. Results were analysed for the predictors of Hb, the severity of anaemia in both groups and the relative impact of diabetes on haemoglobin and anaemia. RESULTS: The study group consisted of 468 patients, of whom 204 had diabetes and 264 did not. At every level of renal function haemoglobin levels were lower by an average of 10 g/l in subjects with diabetes than in those without. Likewise, anaemia was found to occur at an earlier stage of chronic kidney disease (and to be of greater severity) in diabetic patients. Independent predictors of haemoglobin included female sex, diabetes, renal function and serum albumin, with diabetes and renal function being the greatest predictors. Multiple logistic regression showed that patients with diabetes had an odds ratio of 4 for being anaemic. Had we used an estimated GFR of less than 60 ml/min to trigger investigation of anaemia, we would have detected 85% of anaemic patients. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Anaemia is frequently found in diabetic patients with renal disease, occurs earlier and is more severe than in similar but non-diabetic subjects. In contrast to previous publications, our findings suggest that anaemia is prevalent at the earliest stages of chronic kidney disease. We advocate an estimated GFR threshold of <60 ml/min to trigger investigation for anaemia in diabetic subjects.

Adult↗