SEARCH · PubMed Health

Results for “Prognostics”

Explore indexed PubMed citations for clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health research. Read source abstracts and follow each citation to its original PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 973 records · Page 54Linked to original sources

PubMed2002

A non-invasively determined surrogate of cardiac power ('circulatory power') at peak exercise is a powerful prognostic factor in chronic heart failure.

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to assess the prognostic value of a new variable derived from a cardiopulmonary exercise test, the circulatory power, a surrogate of cardiac power, at peak exercise, in patients with chronic heart failure. BACKGROUND: Peak exercise cardiac power and stroke work are invasive parameters with recently proven prognostic value. It is unclear whether these variables have better prognostic value than peak oxygen uptake (VO(2)). METHODS: The study population comprised 175 patients with chronic heart failure (ejection fraction <45%) who underwent a cardiopulmonary exercise test. Circulatory power and circulatory stroke work were defined as the product of systolic arterial pressure and VO(2) and oxygen pulse, respectively. Prognostic value was assessed by survival curves (Kaplan-Meier method) and uni- and multivariate Cox analyses. RESULTS: With a mean follow-up of 25+/-10 months, ejection fraction, heart rate, systolic arterial pressure, peak VO(2), VCO(2), the anaerobic threshold, minute ventilation, the ventilatory equivalents of oxygen and carbon dioxide, the half times of VO(2) and VCO(2) recoveries, and the circulatory stroke work and power predicted outcome. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the peak circulatory power (chi-square=19.9, P<0.001) (but not peak circulatory stroke work) was the only variable predictive of prognosis. CONCLUSION: The prognostic value of cardiopulmonary exercise tests in heart failure patients can be improved by assessing a new variable, the circulatory power - a surrogate of cardiac power - at peak exercise.

Adult↗

PubMed2004

Surgery for mesenteric infarction: prognostic factors associated with early death within 72 hours.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to look for preoperative and postoperative prognostic factors for early mortality, likely to be of use to clinicians in decision making. DESIGN: Prospective multicenter study. SETTING: This study was conducted in 4 university hospitals in Northeast France. PARTICIPANTS: One hundred thirty-one patients with mesenteric infarction confirmed by pathologic examination were included. INTERVENTIONS: All patients underwent surgery and were hospitalized in the intensive care unit. MAIN RESULTS: Twenty-eight patients (21.3%) underwent exploratory laparotomy only; 103 patients underwent bowel resection with/or without associated revascularization. The overall mortality rate at discharge was 74.8%. In the first 3 days, 60% of deaths occurred. The prognostic factors for death within 72 hours, obtained by logistic regression, were preoperative heart failure, lactate level over 5 mmol/L, aspartate aminotransferase over 200 IU/L, and total cholesterol level below 80 mg/dL, or procalcitonin level over 40 ng/L. From these results, a mortality prognostic score was derived. Probability of mortality within 72 hours was estimated to be 5% for patients with none of these factors and 97% for those with all 4. For deaths occurring after 72 hours, the only mortality prognostic factor was the existence of necrosed areas at the ends of bowel resections. CONCLUSION: When patients have fewer than 3 of the prognostic factors described in the score, aggressive medical and surgical strategies could be appropriate. If necrosis is recorded at the ends of the resection, renewed surgery should be undertaken as soon as signs of new disturbances appear.

Aged↗

PubMed2003

Altered expression of cell cycle regulators in myxofibrosarcoma, with special emphasis on their prognostic implications.

Myxofibrosarcoma/myxoid malignant fibrous histiocytoma (MFH) has continued to be considered a distinct entity even after recently published reassessments of pleomorphic sarcomas and MFH. Several cell cycle-regulated proteins have already been screened by immunohistochemistry with the aim of finding the reliable prognostic indicator of soft tissue sarcomas; however, it is still unknown whether their altered expression affects patient survival in myxofibrosarcoma. In this study, we evaluated the expression of p53, MDM2, MIB-1 (Ki-67), p21, p27, p16, cyclin A, cyclin D1, and cyclin E by immunohistochemistry in 45 cases of myxofibrosarcoma. First, we searched for possible clinicopathologic prognostic factors in 61 cases of myxofibrosarcoma for which follow-up data were available. In univariate analysis, large tumor size (> or =5 cm), deeply situated tumor, and high histological grade (grade 2 or 3) significantly decreased survival (log-rank test, P <0.05). Among 43 cases of myxofibrosarcoma for which immunohistochemical findings were available, high MIB-1 labeling index (LI) (cutoffs of 10 and 22.5 on average), high cyclin A LI (cutoffs 10% and 13.8% on average), low p21 LI (cutoffs 10 and 20.7 on average), and reduced abnormal expression of p16 were adverse prognostic factors. In multivariate analysis (Cox proportional hazards model), high mitotic rate (>15/10 high-power fields), p53 immunoreactivity (cutoff 10%), high MIB-1 LI (>22.5), low p21 LI (<20.7), and low p27 LI (<47.8 on average) were independent poor prognostic factors. Our results suggest that reduced expression of p21 could be considered a new parameter to be evaluated, along with classical clinicopathologic prognostic factors, for identifying those at high risk for myxofibrosarcoma.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

Prognostic factors in mesothelioma.

Prognostic factors in oncology may help physicians give their patients a prognosis for their disease and thus allow them to make plans for the future. These factors also assist in the selection of patients more likely to benefit from intensive treatments, especially in the context of clinical trials. Recently it has become clear that prognostic factors may have an additional benefit: they may provide insight into the biology of the cancer being studied and lead to improved understanding of the molecular pathogenesis. For malignant mesothelioma, the prognostic scoring systems of the Cancer and Leukemia Group B (CALGB) and European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) are the most useful of those currently available. These systems rate performance status, age, histological subtype, weight loss, and hematological parameters as the best prognostic factors for malignant mesothelioma. In the future, biological markers may provide additional information on mesothelioma and will help in prognostication.

Humans↗

PubMed2000

[Molecular biology and immunohistochemical prognostic markers in head and neck squamous epithelial carcinomas].

BACKGROUND: Scientific research work of the last decade has been performed in order to investigate biological parameters of prognostic significance for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. In contrast to other cancer types, like colon carcinoma, where tumour progression is accompanied by an almost defined sequel of gene activations and inactivations, cells of squamous cell carcinoma behave more heterogenously. METHODS: Publications concerning the most important immunohistochemical, molecular biological and cytogenetic prognostic markers in head and neck cancer have been analyzed. RESULTS: The prognostic markers discussed in this publication have been classified into the following areas: Apoptosis, cell cycle regulation, viral infections, cytokines and growth factors/growth factor receptors, angiogenesis and hypoxia, proteinases, cell-cell contacts and cell-matrix contacts, cytokeratin fragments, chromosomal rearrangements and genetically inherited susceptibility to toxic reagents. CONCLUSIONS: Significant prognostic markers are important for the clinical follow-up of patients and the choice of therapeutical approach. However, none of the factors analyzed can be used as an individual and universal prognostic marker at present.

Biomarkers, Tumor↗

PubMed2006

Gene expression profiles of breast cancer obtained from core cut biopsies before neoadjuvant docetaxel, adriamycin, and cyclophoshamide chemotherapy correlate with routine prognostic markers and could be used to identify predictive signatures.

BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant administration of chemotherapy provides a unique opportunity to monitor response to treatment in breast cancer and assesses response exactly. Global gene expression profiling by microarrays has been used as a valuable tool for the identification of prognostic and predictive marker genes. Even though this technology is now wide spread and relatively standardized, there are only few data available which compare established parameters with expression values to determine reliability of this method. Therefore we analyzed gene expression data of pretreatment biopsies of breast cancer patients and compared them with the results of the immunohistochemical receptor expression for ER/ PR and Her-2, as well as FISH testing for HER-2 amplification. We analyzed the change of expression of these markers before and after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Furthermore we evaluated the predictive significance of prognostic gene signatures as described by Sorlie, van't Veer and Ahr for response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. METHODS: Pretherapeutic core biopsies were obtained from 70 patients undergoing neoadjuvant TAC chemotherapy within the GEPARTRIO-trial. Samples were characterized according to standard pathology including ER, PR and HER2 IHC and amount of cancer cells. Only biopsies with more than 80 % tumor cells were considered for further examination. RNA was isolated and expression profiling performed using Affymetrix Hg U133 Arrays (22 500 genes). GeneData's Expressionist software was used for bioinformatic analyses. RESULTS: More than two thirds of the biopsies yielded sufficient amounts (> 5 microg) of RNA for expression profiling and high quality data were obtained for 50 samples. Unsupervised clustering broadly revealed a correlation with hormone receptor status. When ER-alpha, PR and HER2 as analyzed by immunohistochemistry were compared to the corresponding mRNA data from gene chips more than 90 % concordance was observed. We could observe a switch of receptor expression for ER, PR or HER-2 from positive to negative and vice versa in 16/35 cases (45.7 %) and 5/22 cases (22.7 %) respectively. The prognostic marker sets of Sorlie, van't Veer and Ahr could not discriminate responders from non-responders in our patient group. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate that reliable expression profiles can be achieved by using limited amounts of tissue obtained during neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Microarray data capture conventional prognostic markers but might contain additional informative gene sets correlated with treatment outcome. Prognostic marker sets are not suitable to predict tumor response in the neoadjuvant setting, suggesting the necessity of class prediction methods to identify marker sets predictive for the type of therapy used.

Adult↗

PubMed1995

The prognostic significance of biliary bilirubin conjugates in biliary atresia.

Nine patients with biliary atresia (BA) were investigated from the aspect of biliary bilirubin conjugates. They were classified arbitrarily into the good prognostic group in which jaundice disappeared (serum total bilirubin equal or below 1.0 mg/dl), and the poor prognostic group in which persistent jaundice was observed for more than 12 months. The ratio of biliary bilirubin diconjugate (BDC) increased in all patients of the two groups by the first month after operation. Although there was no significant difference in daily bilirubin excretion within 1-3 postoperative days, the BDC ratio in the good prognostic group was significantly higher than that in the poor prognostic group (p < 0.01). The study indicated that the ratio of BDC was an early prognostic determinant of BA patients. The prognosis of BA patients was much influenced by the ability of bilirubin conjugation in the early postoperative days.

Bile↗

PubMed2001

Safety, feasibility, and prognostic implications of pharmacologic stress echocardiography in 1482 patients evaluated in an ambulatory setting.

BACKGROUND: The outpatient prognostic assessment of coronary artery disease (CAD) by exercise electrocardiography has limitations, including the feasibility of the test and its low positive predictive value in several clinical conditions. In the current study we investigated the safety, feasibility, and prognostic value of pharmacologic stress echocardiography in a large cohort of ambulatory patients. METHODS: The study group was made of 1482 ambulatory patients (969 men, aged 60 +/- 10 years) who underwent stress echocardiography with either dipyridamole (n = 846) or dobutamine (n = 636) for evaluation of suspected or known stable CAD. The pretest likelihood of CAD was intermediate (<70%) in 709 patients and high (> or =70%) in 773 patients. RESULTS: There was no complication during the dipyridamole test, whereas 2 ischemia-dependent, sustained ventricular tachycardias occurred during the dobutamine test. Limiting side effects were observed in 2% of dipyridamole and in 3% of dobutamine stresses. The echocardiogram was positive in 459 patients. During a mean follow-up of 28 +/- 24 months, 58 patients died, 33 had a nonfatal myocardial infarction, and 158 underwent early (< or =3 months) and 64 late (>3 months) revascularization. Multivariate predictors of hard events (death, infarction) were positive echocardiographic results (hazard ratio [HR] 2.9) and resting wall motion score index (WMSI) (HR 2.3). In considering major events (death, infarction, late revascularization) as end points, positive echocardiographic result (HR 4.3), scar (HR 2.2), and resting WMSI (HR 1.7) were independent prognostic predictors. The 5-year survival rates for the ischemic and nonischemic groups were, respectively, 80% and 91% (HR 3.6, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.8-8.4; P <.0001) considering hard cardiac events and 65% and 88% (HR 2.6, 95% CI 2.1-5.9; P <.0001) considering major events. Multivariate predictors of major events were positive echocardiographic results (HR 8.2) and male sex (HR 2.5) for the intermediate-risk group and positive echocardiographic results (HR 2.9), resting WMSI (HR 1.8), and prior Q-wave myocardial infarction (HR 1.8) for the high-risk group. CONCLUSIONS: Pharmacologic stress echocardiography is safe, highly feasible, and effective in prognostic assessment of ambulatory patients when both a general population and groups selected on the basis of pretest likelihood of CAD are analyzed. It represents a valid complementary tool to exercise electrocardiography for prognostic purposes in outpatients.

Ambulatory Care↗

PubMed2002

Prognostic significance of Bcl-2, p53 overexpression, and lymph node metastasis in surgically staged endometrial carcinoma.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to clarify whether Bcl-2 and p53 have prognostic significance that is independent of lymph node metastasis and other conventional histopathologic factors in endometrial carcinoma. STUDY DESIGN: Immunohistochemistry for Bcl-2 and p53 expression was performed on the frozen sections of 102 cases that were treated with surgery, including pelvic and para-aortic lymphadenectomy. Cox regression analysis was used to determine the prognostic significance. RESULTS: By univariate analysis, both loss of Bcl-2 expression and p53 overexpression were related to patient survival. Lymph node metastasis, p53 overexpression, and nuclear grade were found to be independent prognostic factors (determined by multivariate analysis). The estimated 5-year survival rate of patients with stage III/IV disease without p53 overexpression was 75.7%; the estimated 5-year survival rate for patients with p53 overexpression was only 40.4%. The difference was highly significant (P =.0053). CONCLUSION: Lymph node metastasis, p53 overexpression, and nuclear grade are independent prognostic factors for endometrial carcinoma. Bcl-2 may have little importance in the progression of endometrial carcinoma and is a less potent prognostic factor than is p53. A new treatment strategy is necessary for advanced stage endometrial carcinoma with p53 overexpression.

Adenocarcinoma↗

PubMed2004

Bioelectrical impedance phase angle as a prognostic indicator in advanced pancreatic cancer.

Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is an easy-to-use, non-invasive and reproducible technique to evaluate changes in body composition and nutritional status. Phase angle, determined by BIA, has been found to be a prognostic indicator in several chronic conditions, such as HIV, liver cirrhosis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer, and in patients undergoing dialysis. The present study investigated the prognostic role of phase angle in advanced pancreatic cancer. We evaluated a case series of fifty-eight stage IV pancreatic cancer patients treated at Cancer Treatment Centers of America at Midwestern Regional Medical Center (Zion, IL, USA) between January 2000 and July 2003. BIA was conducted on all patients using a bioelectrical impedance analyser that operated at 50 kHz. The phase angle was calculated as capacitance (Xc)/resistance (R) and expressed in degrees. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate survival. Cox proportional hazard models were constructed to evaluate the prognostic effect of phase angle independent of other clinical and nutritional variables. The correlations between phase angle and traditional nutritional measures were evaluated using Pearson and Spearman coefficients. Patients with phase angle <5.0 degrees had a median survival time of 6.3 (95% CI 3.5, 9.2) months (n 29), while those with phase angle >5.0 degrees had a median survival time of 10.2 (95% CI 9.6, 10.8) months (n 29); this difference was statistically significant (P=0.02). The present study demonstrates that phase angle is a strong prognostic indicator in advanced pancreatic cancer. Similar studies in other cancer settings with larger sample sizes are needed to further validate the prognostic significance of the phase angle.

Adult↗

PubMed2004

Mesenchymal chondrosarcoma: an immunohistochemical study of 10 cases examining prognostic significance of proliferative activity and cellular differentiation.

AIMS: Mesenchymal chondrosarcoma is a rare malignant chondrogenic neoplasm that tends to affect young adults and teenagers. The prognosis is unpredictable, and the identification of prognostic markers that could aid in determining the behaviour of this tumour would be helpful. There are few studies in the literature that have attempted to address this issue. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this study, we explored the prognostic significance of three different parameters: (1) tissue morphology of small cell areas, (2) the expression of tumour differentiation marker genes, and (3) the proliferation rate. Our results did not show a correlation of prognosis with the histological features of the neoplastic small cell areas or the expression of tumour differentiation genes. However, the proliferative activity of the tumour cells appeared to have some prognostic significance as related to patient survival. CONCLUSION: Mesenchymal chondrosarcoma is a rare tumour with a wide clinical range of behaviour. Therefore, it is difficult to obtain reliable prognostic parameters. Nevertheless, our study suggests that proliferative activity may be a useful prognostic parameter for mesenchymal chondrosarcomas.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2004

Prognostic relevance of 20q13 gains in sporadic colorectal cancers: a FISH analysis.

BACKGROUND: Amplification of 20q13 is a frequent chromosomal alteration in solid tumors and harbors a number of putative oncogenes (CAS/CSE1-L, NABC1, or Aurora2). Amplifications on 20q13 have been identified as an independent prognostic marker indicating worse survival in breast and ovarian cancer. However, little is known about the prognostic significance of 20q13 gains in sporadic colorectal cancers. The aim of this study was to correlate 20q13 gains in sporadic colorectal cancers with other known prognostic factors, tumor progression, and overall survival. METHODS: Nuclei were extracted from 146 paraffin-embedded colorectal cancers of different UICC stages and used for fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) with a directly labeled probe for 20q13.2 (VYSIS). Signals were counted in 120 nuclei per sample. 20q13 was considered gained when > or =40% of the nuclei showed 3 or more FISH signals. Statistical correlations were tested with log-rank tests and Kaplan-Meier survival curves. RESULTS: Signal numbers for 20q13.2 were gained in 78 cases (53%). Cases with gains on 20q13.2 showed worse outcome than cases without: the gain of 20q13.2 was an independent prognostic marker for overall survival (P=0.006) as well as tumor progression (P=0.012) in univariate and multivariate analyses. Gains on 20q13.2 did not correlate with tumor stage. However, there was a significant association between 20q13.2 gains and tumor location in the left-sided colon and an inverse correlation between histologic grade and 20q13.2 gains. CONCLUSION: These data indicate that gains on 20q13.2 correlate with faster tumor progression and worse patient survival independent from tumor size and lymph node involvement. Therefore, alterations on 20q13 are an important biological event in colorectal tumor progression with independent prognostic relevance.

Adenoma↗

PubMed2000

Evaluation of prognostic factors in prostate cancer with partial least squares analysis.

OBJECTIVE: This study was carried out to explore the capability of partial least squares (PLS) analysis, a multivariate projection method, in the evaluation of investigative prognostic biomarkers. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Using PLS analysis, survival and life expectancy were prognosticated in 53 patients with prostate cancer treated with transurethral resection. The age of the patient, stage and grade of the tumours, and immunoreactivity in the tumours for p53, Bcl-2, and TGF-beta1 and its receptors type I and type II (TGFbeta-RI and TGFalpha-RII), and markers for proliferation, vascular density, and macrophage density were included as prognostic factors in the analysis. RESULTS: The prognostic impact of the factors, in decreasing order, was tumour grade, proliferation, stage, vascular density, TGFbeta-RI, metastasis, TGF-beta1, and TGFbeta-RII. Macrophage staining, p53, Bcl-2, and patient age did not contribute to the model. The model explained 62% of the total variance in survival, and the standard deviation of error of prediction was 29 months. CONCLUSIONS: PLS analysis may become a useful tool for evaluation of putative prognostic factors.

Biomarkers↗

PubMed2003

Prognostic factors in adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

The prognosis of patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), treated with modern chemotherapeutic regimens, is dependent on a number of variables. The major prognostic factors for survival in adult ALL are age, cytogenetic abnormalities, immunologic subtype, white blood cell (WBC) count, and time to achieve complete remission (CR). Determination of these factors is crucial for adapting post remission therapy in adult ALL. Indeed, risk-adapted strategies based on those biologic and clinical features are currently being applied to improve survival. In this review, we report the different prognostic factors described in adult ALL and discuss the controversies in current adult ALL management in relation with these different features. The data reported are derived from the medical literature and from the experience of the authors. Prognostic factors appear to be time-dependent. This emphasizes their determination according to the phase of treatment. The use of time-segmented multivariate analysis able to distinguish prognostic factors associated with the induction phase and those associated with the post-induction phase of treatment seems suitable to define accurately prognostic models.

Biomarkers↗

PubMed2003

Configuration of the TP53 gene as an independent prognostic parameter of myelodysplastic syndrome.

Myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) consists of a heterogeneous group of acquired hematopoietic stem cell disorders, characterized by bone marrow failure and leukemic transformation. Since hematological manifestations and clinical outcomes vary widely among MDS patients, a considerable number of studies have tried to identify the prognostic parameters for the stratification of patients into different risk groups. Based on reported risk-based studies, the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) was proposed as a reliable risk assessment method for primary MDS patients, and several validating studies have clarified its usefulness. Critical prognostic parameters of the IPSS consist of chromosome findings, the percentage of marrow blasts, and the number of peripheral blood cytopenias. Although other laboratory findings, including several molecular alterations, have been identified as convincing prognostic factors in MDS, these molecular configurations were not selected as prognostic parameters in the IPSS, because analysis for these alterations were not routinely available for the management of patients with MDS. Because recent advances in molecular genetics may make it available as a routine work-up of MDS in the future, we discuss potential improvement of the IPSS by the addition of molecular analysis to the system, with particular reference to the configuration of the TP53 gene.

Genes, p53↗

PubMed2004

Lack of prognostic significance of BCL2 and p53 protein overexpression in elderly patients with diffuse large B-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma: results from a population-based non-Hodgkin's lymphoma registry.

The prognostic significance of age was studied in 372 patients with diffuse large B-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, in relation to the prognostic factors of overexpressed BCL2 and p53 oncoprotein. Overexpression of BCL2 and p53 oncoprotein was defined when more than 50% of the tumor cells showed positive staining. The data were analyzed with respect to the age groups < 65 and > or = 65 years of age. There was a trend for BCL2 overexpression to occur significantly more often among patients older than 65 years of age (P = 0.065). Patients with BCL2 overexpression showed significantly inferior disease free survival rate, but only for patients younger than 65 years (log-rank test P = 0.0002), and the overexpression showed also an independent prognostic significance (P < 0.001). With respect to overexpressed p53 a significant difference was reached for complete remission rate (P = 0.01) and 5-year survival rate (log-rank test P = 0.04), again only for the younger age group. When the analyses were repeated for the older patients who had been treated adequately, the same lack of significance was found, both for BCL2 and p53. This study demonstrates that the negative prognostic value of overexpressed BCL2 and p53 protein is not of concern for patients older than 65 years of age. Among elderly patients the International Prognostic Index score seems the predominant risk factor for inferior prognosis.

Aged↗

PubMed2002

Prognostic modelling of therapeutic interventions in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a disease with a widely varying prognosis. The majority of patients survive about 3 years, but a significant number survive for 10 years or more, leading to problems in clinical trial design. OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate that simple clinical variables can be used to construct a robust predictive model for survival, and to assess the effect of a known treatment within this model. METHODS: We carried out a retrospective multivariate modelling of a database of 841 patients with ALS seen over a 10-year period in a specialist motor neuron disorders clinic. The use of riluzole was tested as a prognostic factor within the model. RESULTS: A prognostic score generated from one cohort of patients predicted survival for a second cohort of patients (r(2) = 0.78). Prognostic variables included site of onset, age of onset, time from symptom onset to diagnosis, and El Escorial category at presentation. Riluzole therapy was an independently significant prognostic factor (relative risk of death 0.48, P < 0.0001, model chi(2) 297, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical databases can be used to generate multivariate prognostic models in ALS. Such models could be used to predict survival, to improve criteria for matching of patients in future clinical trials, and to test the impact of interventions.

Age of Onset↗

PubMed2004

Prognostic scoring systems in patients with follicular thyroid cancer: a comparison of different staging systems in predicting the patient outcome.

BACKGROUND: The use of prognostic scoring systems is important for predicting the survival of individuals with thyroid carcinoma. Relatively few studies have addressed this issue for patients with follicular thyroid cancer. The goal of this retrospective study was to establish the best and most pertinent prognostic scoring system to predict survival in patients with follicular thyroid cancer. METHODS: We selected 86 patients with follicular thyroid cancer treated at University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) hospitals from January 1954 to April 1998. The mean follow-up time was 11.5 years. There were 60 women (70%) and 26 men (30%), with a mean age if 48.6 years. Prognostic scoring systems included tumor, node, metastases (TNM), European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC), Age, Grade, Extent, Size (AGES), Age, Metastases, Extent, Size (AMES), and the Metastases, Age, Completeness of resection, Invasion, Size (MACIS). Survival time was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Using Cox proportional hazards analysis, the relative importance of each scoring method was determined by calculating the proportion of variation in survival time explained (PVE). RESULTS: Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that all scoring systems were significant predictors of survival time (p < 0.0001). The PVE associated with each system was (from highest to lowest) 0.48 for MACIS, 0.46 for AGES, 0.44 for EORTC, 0.40 for AMES, and 0.33 for TNM. These results indicate that the MACIS scoring system accounted for a great proportion of explained variance in survival and is a more precise predictor of survival compared to the other scoring systems. CONCLUSIONS: TNM, EORTC, AGES, AMES, and MACIS, all provided useful prognostic information about the survival in our 86 patients with follicular thyroid cancers. The MACIS classification, however, was the most accurate predictor using PVE as a method of evaluation. Future scoring systems considering additional prognostic factors, may obtain a higher PVE.

Adenocarcinoma, Follicular↗