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The possible, the probable, and the unlikely: forecasting the future.

Nurse executives, administrators, and managers are constantly being challenged by the changes in healthcare. Although it sometimes seems there is really nothing new, proactive visionary nurse administrators can rediscover, redesign, and redirect their own and others' activities to achieve organizational effectiveness. Such approaches require periodic examination of all strategies and practices--past, present, and future--for their relevance, practicality, and success. The editors of "Executive Development" reflect on topics important to organizational life.

Forecasting↗

Capital fold-in makes payment forecasting difficult for hospitals.

The public review period for the Health Care Financing Administration's proposed regulation to fold capital payments to hospitals into the prospective payment system isn't over yet. But analysts are already saying HCFA's plan would hamper hospitals' ability to predict Medicare capital revenues. "The ability to make a long-range judgment about the regulation is difficult because we don't know the long-range picture. Even what they've [government officials] laid out for the first year is only an estimate," notes Paul Rettig, executive vice president of the American Hospital Association.

Capital Expenditures↗

[Infant and neonatal mortality and its forecasting].

The authors draw attention to some trends in the development of important indicators of health care in the SR, i.e. infant and neonatal mortality. Using the method of simple analysis of trends mortality, they processed time series of data from all districts in Slovakia. They included in the analysis mortality data from 1972 to 1989. Based on the mentioned data they calculated the extrapolated trend for each district and present estimates for 1995 and 2005. They draw attention to differences between districts and discuss possible causes of this state of affairs. They draw attention of readers to the interpretation of results and warn against their absolutization.

Czechoslovakia↗

[Forecasting health personnel needs on the basis of long-term developmental trends in relation to the standardized results].

The author compares the results of prognostic work conducted with the help of a demographic model of personnel based on the long-term development of the age structure of workers or on assumptions in the plan and add gradually revealed quantified factors which influence the numbers and the structure of workers, with results obtained by calculation of norms of workers for the network of health institutions. The author evaluates the possibilities and applicability of the two approaches.

Czechoslovakia↗

[Problems in forecasting and its practical application in pharmacy and monitoring drug utilization].

The authors discuss problems of prognoses and their possible application in the health services, in particular in pharmacy and in prediction of drug consumption. The authors summarize the results of some investigations made along these lines. They emphasize the importance of prognostic activities from the aspect of organization and control as well as from the aspect of perspective plans.

Czechoslovakia↗