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PubMed2004

Preoperative serum hyaluronic acid level as a good predictor of posthepatectomy complications.

PURPOSE: We evaluated the efficiency of measuring hyaluronic acid (HA) levels preoperatively in patients with injured liver disease as a predictor of complications after hepatectomy. METHODS: We examined patients who underwent hepatectomy for liver tumors secondary to chronic viral liver diseases or obstructive jaundice. RESULTS: The preoperative HA level correlated significantly with the indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min, liver activity at 15 min by technetium-99m galactosyl human serum albumin scientigraphy, and the histopathological activity index. It was also significantly elevated in patients with severe fibrosis caused by cirrhosis. After hepatectomy, the HA level was increased on postoperative day (PODS) 7, but had normalized by POD 28. The preoperative HA level tended to correlate with the regeneration rate on POD 28, and was significantly higher in patients with prolonged ascites or hepatic failure postoperatively. Multivariate analysis identified a serum HA level above 200 or 150 ng/ml as the only significant predictor of postoperative hepatic failure or long-term ascites, respectively (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate that the preoperative serum HA level is a good predictor of postoperative complications in patients who undergo hepatectomy for injured liver disease.

Adult↗

PubMed2000

Predictors of improvement in FEV1 (forced expiratory volume in 1s) after lung volume reduction surgery.

We evaluated various preoperative and operative factors to identify the predictors of improvement in forced expiratory volume in 1s (FEV1) after lung volume reduction surgery (LVRS). Fifty-eight emphysema patients received bilateral LVRS either via a sternotomy (n = 53) or by thoracoscopy (n = 5). The patients were divided into the following two groups: group I (n = 17), patients whose FEV1 improved by less than 20%; group II (n = 41), patients whose FEV1 improved by more than or equal to 20%. The preoperative factors (age, degree of dyspnea, oxygen use, steroid use, pulmonary function test, arterial blood gas, pulmonary hemodynamics, 6-min walking distance) and operative factors (removed lung weight, number of staplers) were both similar between the two groups. Upper lobe type emphysema was more frequently seen in group II and the average improvement in FEV1 was significantly better in the patients with upper lobe type emphysema (62.8% +/- 8.5%) than lower lobe type (36.9% +/- 7.6%) and mixed type (35.5% +/- 6.5%), P < 0.01. Severe pleural adhesion was more frequently found in group I and the average improvement in FEV1 was also significantly lower in patients with severe pleural adhesion (19.8% +/- 6.4%) than mild-to-moderate adhesion (46.8% +/- 5.3%) and no-to-minimal adhesion (62.3% +/- 10.4%), P < 0.01. These results lead us to conclude that upper lobe type emphysema may thus be a predictor of better FEV1 improvement while severe pleural adhesion is considered to be a predictor of a poorer FEV1 improvement after bilateral LVRS.

Aged↗

PubMed2001

Application of the Third Molar Eruption Predictor to periapical radiographs.

The aim of this study was to test whether the Third Molar Eruption Predictor, developed for panoramic radiographs, can also be applied to periapical radiographs. The Third Molar Eruption Predictor is a transparent device (US patent 5,816,814), not commercially available, and developed for prediction of future eruption or impaction of third molars. The material consisted of periapical radiographs of mandibular third molars taken from the lateral projection without angulation of the central beam. The radiographs taken at the mean age of 20.6 years (SD +/- 1.4 years) were retrospectively available from a four-year follow-up study of third molars carried out at the University of Copenhagen, Denmark. Initially unerupted or partially erupted third molars (n=43) in 28 dental students were analyzed. Clinical statuses of the third molars were available at baseline and four years later. The device was calibrated using the method of simple proportions and Bayes' Decision Theory. The predictions made with the calibrated device were in conformity with the final clinical outcome in 84% of the cases. It was concluded that the Third Molar Eruption Predictor may also be used on periapical radiographs after calibration of the device.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

Predictors of length of stay in inpatient child and adolescent psychiatry: failure to validate an evidence-based model.

OBJECTIVE: To test if predictors of length of stay are based on empirical evidence. METHOD: 1001 regularly terminated treatment episodes from 13 child and adolescent psychiatric hospitals were analysed. In order to cross- validate the results, the sample was randomly divided into a definition sample (n = 500) and a validation sample (n = 501). The variables in the definition sample were screened statistically for their suitability as predictors of logarithmic length of stay (logLOS). Variables shown to be significant and uncorrelated were entered into multifactor analyses of variance in order to generate the model with the largest amount of explained variance of logLOS. Subsequently the results were tested against the validation sample. RESULTS: In the definition sample we found the three predictor variables admission as crisis intervention, out of home dispositions and psychoanalytic therapy which could explain 23.7 % of the variance of logLOS. Unfortunately, this could not be replicated in the validation sample as a model. CONCLUSION: Simple models of prediction of LOS in the field of child and adolescent psychiatry cannot be reliably based on empirical evidence. The main consequence is that fixed disorder-related reimbursement systems do not seem justified.

Adjustment Disorders↗

PubMed2004

Predictors of cardiac morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing endovascular repair of the thoracic aorta.

The aim of this study was to determine predictors of cardiac morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing endovascular repair of the thoracic aorta. This was a retrospective cohort study that took place in a University-affiliated county hospital. Preoperative and intraoperative variables were collected from a consecutive series of patients who underwent repair of the thoracic aorta at our institution between 1998 and 2003. Perioperative complications and mortality were identified for each patient. Fifty-nine patients underwent endovascular repair of the thoracic aorta. The endografts were successfully deployed in 58 (98%) patients. Nine (15%) died perioperatively, 4 (7%) from cardiac causes. There were 12 (20%) perioperative cardiac events. A history of myocardial infarction (MI) was the only preoperative risk factor that was predictive of a cardiac event (p = 0.001). The cardiac event rate was 29% for patients who did not receive perioperative beta-blockade vs. 8% in patients who did (p = 0.04). Intraoperative predictors of MI were estimated blood loss (2480 cc vs. 680 cc, p = 0.01), intravenous (i.v.) fluids (2955 cc vs. 2010 cc, p =0.02), and length of operation (269 min vs. 178 min, p = 0.02). From these results we concluded that mortality associated with endovascular repair of thoracic aorta remains significant. Patients with a history of MI had a higher perioperative cardiac event rate. Intraoperative predictors of perioperative cardiac events included blood loss, i.v. fluid requirement, and length of operation. Perioperative beta-blockade is important in endovascular thoracic surgery as a protection against postoperative cardiac events.

Aged↗

PubMed2006

Reliability of predictors of study success in medicine.

AIM: Examination of the reliability of predictors for study success found in a prospective study in the year 2002/03. We report the results of a retest in an unselected students' sample taken from the following academic year 2003/04. METHODS: In a comparison of successful and unsuccessful students in their first year at the Medical University of Vienna, four predictors for study success had been found (using a questionnaire in a prospective design). In a re-examination of this study, after testing for representativeness, all P values were first subjected to adjustment for multiple testing. Secondly, the items were retested in a student sample drawn in 2003/04 using the same procedures. RESULTS: After Finner's adjustment for multiple testing, the four predictors (male sex, German mother tongue, performance at school, learning capacity and learning style) were confirmed. In the students' sample of 2003/04, eighteen out of 22 items remained significant. CONCLUSION: The majority of the prognostic factors found are reliable.

Adult↗

PubMed2007

Predictors and noninvasive identification of severe liver fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

Diagnosis of severe fibrosis (stages III and IV) in hepatitis C has clinical implications. Our objective was to distinguish independent predictors of severe fibrosis and use them to identify patients with severe fibrosis without a liver biopsy. One hundred ninety-nine hepatitis C patients were included in the initial analysis to identify predictors of severe fibrosis. Univariate and multivariate analyses of 26 predetermined variables for significance in predicting severe fibrosis were performed. Based on the coefficient regression and P values, a scoring system was developed and applied to a second independent cohort (137 patients) for validation. In multivariate analysis, low platelet count, low albumin, aspartate transaminase level, history of blood transfusion, and hepatitis B core antibody were significant independent predictors of severe fibrosis. A scoring system (range, 0-9) was developed from the three variables with the lowest P values (platelet count, aspartate transaminase, and albumin). A cutoff point of 4 had 99% specificity and 94% positive predictive value. A cutoff point of 2 had 87% sensitivity and 95% negative predictive value. We conclude that severe fibrosis in hepatitis C may potentially be identified with a high degree of certainty in a substantial number of patients with a simple noninvasive scoring system.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Predictors of participation in clinical and psychosocial follow-up of the kConFab breast cancer family cohort.

INTRODUCTION: Prospective collection of epidemiological, psychosocial and outcome data in large breast cancer family cohorts should provide less biased data than retrospective studies regarding penetrance of breast cancer and modifiers of genetic risk. METHODS: The Kathleen Cuningham Foundation for Research into Breast Cancer (kConFab) recently commenced 3-yearly follow-up on over 750 families with multiple cases of breast cancer. Clinical follow-up was by mailed self-report questionnaire to all participants, while psychosocial follow-up was only of unaffected women and consisted of two components: a mailed questionnaire and an interview regarding stressful life events. RESULTS: To date, 1928 of 2748 (70%) participants returned the clinical follow-up questionnaire (10% opted out, 16% were non-responders, and 4% were not contactable). Of the unaffected females who returned the clinical follow-up questionnaire, 91% participated in the psychosocial follow-up. In multivariate analyses, sex, personal cancer status, marital status, age and educational status were independent predictors of response to the clinical follow-up questionnaire, and number of female children, age, and family history of breast cancer were independent predictors of response to the psychosocial follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: A first round of 3-yearly clinical and psychosocial follow-up using a mailed questionnaire was feasible in this cohort. High response rates were achieved by employing intensive tracing and reminder strategies. The predictors of response for the clinical and psychosocial follow-up components of this study should be considered in designing similar follow-up strategies for other family cancer cohorts.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Childhood peer reputation as a predictor of competence and symptoms 10 years later.

This study examined the differential developmental significance of multiple domains of peer reputation in childhood for current and future competence and symptoms. Participants were 205 children from a normative school cohort who completed assessments in grades 3-6 and then again 10 years later. Through re-analysis of original data from the Revised Class Play (RCP; N=612), new narrow-band subscales were examined as distinct correlates and predictors of competence in age-relevant developmental tasks and psychological well being as indexed by internalizing symptoms. Findings support the differentiation of peer exclusion, withdrawal, and sadness within the broad sensitive-isolated domain of reputation, as well as the distinctive meaning of reputations for Popularity-Leadership and Prosocial Behavior within the broad Sociable-Leader domain. When the Sensitive-Isolated predictors were considered, academic and job competence at the 10-year follow-up were predicted uniquely and negatively by peer exclusion, problems in the social and romantic domains were predicted distinctively by withdrawal from peers, and internalizing symptoms were uniquely predicted by childhood reputation as Sad-Sensitive. When the Sociable-Leader predictors were considered, academic and (for ethnic minority youth) job success was predicted by a Prosocial reputation, social success was forecasted by Popularity-Leadership, and romantic competence was predicted positively by Popularity-Leadership and negatively by Prosocial reputation. Negative academic and job outcomes were also predicted by a childhood reputation as Aggressive-Disruptive. Results are discussed in relation to conceptualizing and measuring peer social competence and its relation to later adaptation.

Achievement↗

PubMed2006

Predictors of language acquisition in preschool children with autism spectrum disorders.

In 118 children followed from age 2 to 5 (59 with autism, 24 with PDD-NOS and 35 with non-spectrum developmental disabilities), age 2 and age 3 scores of non-verbal ability, receptive communication, expressive communication and socialization were compared as predictors of receptive and expressive language at age 5. Non-verbal cognitive ability at age 2 was generally the strongest predictor of age 5 language, while at age 3 communication scores were a stronger predictor of age 5 language for children with autism. Early joint attention as well as vocal and motor imitation skills were more impaired in children who did not develop language by age 5 (but had relatively strong non-verbal cognitive skills) than in children who did develop language by 5.

Autistic Disorder↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Predictors of institutionalization in Latinos with dementia.

The present study identified predictors of time to institutionalization among elderly Latinos suffering from dementia, and determined how these predictors varied when compared to Caucasians and African-Americans. The sample included 324 Latino, 701 African-American, and 7,100 Caucasian dementia patients and their caregivers recruited from eight catchment regions in the U.S. and were assessed over a 3-year period. Potential predictors considered in the event history analyses included context of care and indicators of care recipient cognitive and functional status, caregiver stress and depression, and caregiving resources. Cox proportional hazards models revealed that various indicators of sociodemographic context, caregiver well-being, and community-based service utilization influenced time to institutionalization among Latinos. Cross-ethnic/racial comparisons also identified statistical variations in site, living arrangement, intensity of informal care provision, caregiver depression, and adult day service use across the Latino, Caucasian, and African-American samples when predicting time to nursing home placement. The findings emphasize the need to explore time to institutionalization across racial and ethnic contexts, and suggest future variables to consider when analyzing nursing home placement in diverse situations.

Aged↗

PubMed2006

Predictors of early recurrence and delayed cure after segmental pulmonary vein isolation for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation without structural heart disease.

BACKGROUND: Early recurrence of atrial fibrillation (ERAF) and delayed cure are commonly observed after atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation. The purpose of this study was to determine the predictors of ERAF and delayed cure after a single pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) performed in paroxysmal AF patients without structural heart disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 108 consecutive patients (93 men, 15 women; mean age 51 +/- 8 years) with paroxysmal AF and no structural heart disease, segmental PVI guided by a Lasso catheter was performed. Forty-one percent (44/108) AF patients had ERAF after a single PVI. Univariate analysis revealed that left atrial diameter (p = 0.004), age (p = 0.024) and P-wave dispersion (p = 0.045) were significantly related to ERAF. Logistic regression analysis revealed that left atrial enlargement was the only independent predictor of ERAF (odds ratio [OR] 1.17; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.30, p = 0.006). Delayed cure occurred in 32% (14/44) patients with ERAF. P-wave dispersion (p = 0.001), left atrial diameter (p = 0.008) were significantly related to delayed cure. P-wave dispersion was the only independent predictive factor of delayed cure (OR 0.91; 95% CI 0.85-0.97, p = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Elderly patients with left atrial enlargement and a high dispersion of P wave are susceptible to ERAF after a single PVI. Left atrial enlargement is the only independent predictor of ERAF. Among patients with ERAF, those with less P-wave dispersion and less left atrial diameter have a higher probability of delayed cure. P-wave dispersion can independently predict delayed cure.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Predictors of aggressive behaviors among rural middle school youth.

This study determined multivariate sets of predictors for verbal and physical aggression among rural middle school youth. Surveys were obtained from 1,440 7th and 8th grade youth from six middle schools in five geographically dispersed states. Multivariate logistic regression identified final predictive models. Similar, but varying sets of predictors were identified across types of aggression. The most consistent set of predictors was gender, family actions against violence, peer violence, anger, academic performance, and alcohol use. These results suggest that in comparison with past studies of non-rural youth, similar factors predict aggressive behavior among urban and non-urban youth. Editors' Strategic Implications: This paper makes two contributions to our understanding of the contextual factors influencing youth violence. First, it indicates that the predictive factors for rural and non-rural youth violence are similar. Second, it confirms the role of both family and peers in influencing such violence. Those who design and implement programs and polices addressing youth violence must look beyond individual variables in order to create comprehensive strategies.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2006

Marginal regression models with a time to event outcome and discrete multiple source predictors.

Information from multiple informants is frequently used to assess psychopathology. We consider marginal regression models with multiple informants as discrete predictors and a time to event outcome. We fit these models to data from the Stirling County Study; specifically, the models predict mortality from self report of psychiatric disorders and also predict mortality from physician report of psychiatric disorders. Previously, Horton et al. found little relationship between self and physician reports of psychopathology, but that the relationship of self report of psychopathology with mortality was similar to that of physician report of psychopathology with mortality. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) have been used to fit marginal models with multiple informant covariates; here we develop a maximum likelihood (ML) approach and show how it relates to the GEE approach. In a simple setting using a saturated model, the ML approach can be constructed to provide estimates that match those found using GEE. We extend the ML technique to consider multiple informant predictors with missingness and compare the method to using inverse probability weighted (IPW) GEE. Our simulation study illustrates that IPW GEE loses little efficiency compared with ML in the presence of monotone missingness. Our example data has non-monotone missingness; in this case, ML offers a modest decrease in variance compared with IPW GEE, particularly for estimating covariates in the marginal models. In more general settings, e.g., categorical predictors and piecewise exponential models, the likelihood parameters from the ML technique do not have the same interpretation as the GEE. Thus, the GEE is recommended to fit marginal models for its flexibility, ease of interpretation and comparable efficiency to ML in the presence of missing data.

Biometry↗

PubMed2005

WHOQOL-BREF as predictors of mortality: a two-year follow-up study at veteran homes.

The main purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the brief version of the World Health Organization Quality of Life (WHOQOL-BREF) questionnaire as a predictor of mortality amongst the elderly. A total of 689 male residents of veteran homes, all above the age of 65 years, were randomly selected in 2001. The Taiwan version of the WHOQOL-BREF was administered as the baseline, with each of these subjects being interviewed and subsequently followed up for mortality until the end of 2003. Data on self-reported global health, life satisfaction, medical status, physical performance and health behavior was also collected. Following the death of 105 of the 689 subjects during the 2-year follow-up period, the relative risk (RR) of death was subsequently assessed using Cox's proportional hazard regression analyses. After adjusting for other predictors (age group, chronic diseases, emergency visits, hospitalization, physical performance, regular exercise, self-reported global health and life satisfaction), almost all of the WHOQOL-BREF items and domains failed to predict mortality; the one exception was working capacity levels (score 1-2 vs. score 4-5) which, after adjusting for other predictors, did demonstrate the ability to predict mortality (RR = 1.96, p < 0.05).

Aged↗

PubMed2007

Predictors and outcomes associated with gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with acute coronary syndromes.

BACKGROUND: Potent antiplatelet and anticoagulant agents along with early revascularization are increasingly used in patients hospitalized with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). An important complication associated with these therapies is gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB); yet, the predictors, optimal management, and outcomes associated with GIB in ACS patients are poorly studied. METHODS: We investigated the incidence, predictors, pathological findings, and clinical outcomes associated with GIB in patients with ACS hospitalized at a United States tertiary center between 1996 and 2001. RESULTS: Three percent (80/3,045) of ACS patients developed clinically significant GIB. Predictors of GIB were older age, female gender, non-smoking status, peak troponin I, and prior heart failure, diabetes, or hypertension. Patients with GIB were more critically ill with lower blood pressure and higher heart rates. GIB was associated with an increased need for transfusion, mechanical ventilation, and inotropes/pressors. In-hospital mortality was significantly higher in ACS patients with versus without GIB (36% vs. 5%, P < 0.001). Thirty patients (38%) with GIB underwent endoscopy with no procedural complications of death, arrhythmia, urgent ischemia, or hemodynamic deterioration. CONCLUSION: In patients with ACS, GIB is associated with older age, female sex, peak troponin I, non-smoking status, diabetes, hypertension, and heart failure. Hospital mortality is increased eightfold when ACS patients experience GIB. More studies are needed to establish the safety of and optimal timing of endoscopy in these patients.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2007

Obesity hypoventilation syndrome: prevalence and predictors in patients with obstructive sleep apnea.

Patients with obesity hypoventilation syndrome (OHS) have a lower quality of life, more healthcare expenses, a greater risk of pulmonary hypertension, and a higher mortality compared to eucapnic patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Despite significant morbidity and mortality associated with OHS, it is often unrecognized and treatment is frequently delayed. The objective of this observational study was to determine the prevalence of OHS in patients with OSA seen at the sleep disorders clinic of a large public urban hospital serving predominantly minority population and to identify clinical--not mechanistic--predictors that should prompt clinicians to measure arterial blood gases. In the first stage, we randomly selected 180 patients referred to our sleep disorders clinic between 2000 and 2004 for suspicion of OSA. From this retrospective random sample we calculated the prevalence of OHS in patients with OSA and identified independent clinical predictors using logistic regression. In the second stage, we prospectively validated these predictors in a sample of 410 consecutive patients referred to the sleep disorders clinic for suspicion of OSA between 2005 and 2006. The prevalence of OHS in patients with OSA was 30% in the retrospective random sample and 20% in the prospective sample. Three variables independently predicted OHS in both samples: serum bicarbonate level (p < 0.001), apnea-hypopnea index (p = 0.006), and lowest oxygen saturation during sleep (p < 0.001). Due to the serious morbidity associated with OHS, we selected a highly sensitive threshold of serum bicarbonate level. A threshold of 27 mEq/l had a sensitivity of 92% and a specificity of 50%. Only 3% of patients with a serum bicarbonate level <27 mEq/l had hypercapnia compared to 50% with a serum bicarbonate > or =27 mEq/l. In conclusion, OHS is common in severe OSA. A normal serum bicarbonate level excludes hypercapnia and an elevated serum bicarbonate level should prompt clinicians to measure arterial blood gases.

Adult↗

PubMed2004

Changes in left ventricular volume and predictors of cardiac events after endoventricular circular patch plasty.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to identify predictors of cardiac events after endoventricular circular patch plasty (Dor operation) by analyzing our experience with Dor operation. METHODS: Thirty patients with left ventricular aneurysm and/or ischemic cardiomyopathy who underwent Dor operation were included in this study. Hemodynamic and clinical results were analyzed, and the predictors of cardiac events were examined. RESULTS: Hospital mortality was 3.3%. Postoperative clinical status and left ventricular (LV) function in all survivors significantly improved. The survival rates at 1, 3, and 5 years after operation were 93%, 89% and 89%. The corresponding cardiac event-free rates were 75%, 67% and 49%. Pre- and postoperative LV function and volume did not differ significantly between patients with or without cardiac events. However, the proportion of reduced end-diastolic volume index (EDVI) (preoperative EDVI-postoperative EDVI) to preoperative EDVI was significantly higher in patients with cardiac events than in cardiac event-free patients. Postoperative LV volume re-increased in the cases with cardiac events during follow-up. Cox regression analysis confirmed that preoperative clinical premature ventricular contraction and end-systolic volume index (ESVI), postoperative EDVI, ESVI, and ejection fraction were independent predictors of late cardiac events. There was a significant positive correlation between preoperative ESVI and postoperative EDVI. CONCLUSION: Though LV function significantly improved after Dor operation, LV reconstruction with excessive reduction can cause restarting LV remodeling and increasing mortality and morbidity. Therefore, LV reconstruction of appropriate sizes and shapes, considering the function of residual myocardium, has a significant effect on prognosis. It is highly reasonable to expect that preoperative ESVI can predict the optimal size of reconstructed left ventricle.

Aged↗