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At least 1,009 records · Page 56Linked to original sources
PubMed2006

Prediction model of hepatocarcinogenesis for patients with hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis. Validation with internal and external cohorts.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: To estimate hepatocarcinogenesis rates in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis, an accurate prediction table was created. METHODS: A total of 183 patients between 1974 and 1990 were assessed for carcinogenesis rate and risk factors. Predicted carcinogenesis rates were validated using a cohort from the same hospital between 1991 and 2003 (n=302) and an external cohort from Tokyo National Hospital between 1975 and 2002 (n=205). RESULTS: The carcinogenesis rates in the primary cohort were 28.9% at the 5th year and 54.0% at the 10th year. A proportional hazard model identified alpha-fetoprotein (>or=20 ng/ml, hazard ratio 2.30, 95% confidence interval 1.55-3.42), age (>or=55 years, 2.02, 95% CI 1.32-3.08), gender (male, 1.58, 95% CI 1.05-2.38), and platelet count (<100,000 counts/mm3, 1.54, 95% CI 1.04-2.28) as independently associated with carcinogenesis. When carcinogenesis rates were simulated in 16 conditions according to four binary variables, the 5th- and 10th-year rates varied from 9 to 64%, and 21-93%, respectively. Actual carcinogenesis rates in the internal and external validation cohorts were similar to those of the simulated curves. CONCLUSIONS: Simulated carcinogenesis rates were applicable to patients with HCV-related cirrhosis. Since, hepatocarcinogenesis rates markedly varied among patients depending on background features, we should consider stratifying them for cancer screening and cancer prevention programs.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

[Prediction model on mental health status in middle-aged women of an urban area].

PURPOSE: This study was designed to construct a structural model for explaining mental health status in middle-aged women. METHODS: The data was collected by self-reported questionnaires from 206 middle-aged women in Seoul. Data analysis was done with the SAS pc program for descriptive statistics and a PC-LISREL Program for finding the best fit model which assumes causal relationships among variables. RESULTS: The overall fit of the hypothetical model to the data was good, but paths and variables of the model were modified by considering theoretical implications and statistical significances of parameter estimates. Thus it was modified by excluding 3 paths. The modified model showed was good fit to the data(chi(2)=177.55, p=.00), GFI=0.908, AGFI=0.860, RMR=0.013, NFI=0.972, NNFI=0.982). Perceived stress, anger expression method, and self-esteem were found to have direct effects on mental health status in middle-aged women. These predictive variables of mental health status explained 66.6% of the model. CONCLUSION: Programs to enhance mental health status in middle-aged women should include stress management skill, anger expression skill, and self-esteem enhancement skills to be effective.

Adult↗
PubMedDate not supplied

The National Toxicology Program evaluation of genetically altered mice as predictive models for identifying carcinogens.

National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences researchers are exploring the utility of genetically altered mice to study mechanisms of carcinogenesis. Two of these mouse models, the Tg.AC (carrier of an activated mouse H-ras oncogene) and the p53+/- (heterozygous for the wild-type tumor suppressor gene Trp53), have genetic alterations that appear to hasten their expression of chemically induced tumors. These 2 models have been proposed as a basis for new strategies for identifying chemical carcinogens and for assessing risk. The National Toxicology Program (NTP) is conducting a series of studies with these 2 genetically altered strains to further examine their strengths and weaknesses for identification of documented rodent and human carcinogens. In this first evaluation, candidates for study were drawn from the NTP historical database of 2-yr rodent carcinogenicity studies and the open literature (primarily for drugs). Results with this first set of 11 chemicals tested in genetically altered mice, compared with previous findings in the traditional 2-yr rodent assays and literature on human tumor findings, appear to support the premise advanced by Tennant et al that these models have the potential to serve as more rapid and less expensive test systems to identify carcinogens.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Influence of dose, cigarette smoking, age, sex, and metabolic activity on plasma clozapine concentrations: a predictive model and nomograms to aid clozapine dose adjustment and to assess compliance in individual patients.

The measurement of plasma clozapine concentrations is useful in assessing compliance, optimizing therapy, and minimizing toxicity. We measured plasma clozapine and norclozapine (N-desmethylclozapine) concentrations in samples from 3782 patients (2648 male, 1127 female). No clozapine was detected in 291 samples (227 patients, median prescribed dose 300 mg/d). In 4963 (50.2 %) samples (2222 patients); plasma clozapine concentration ranged from 10 to 350 ng/mL.Step-wise backward multiple regression analysis (37 % of the total samples) of log10 plasma clozapine concentration against log10 clozapine dose (mg/d), age (year), sex (male = 0, female = 1), cigarette smoking habit (nonsmokers = 0; smokers = 1), body weight (kg), and plasma clozapine/norclozapine ratio (clozapine metabolic ratio, MR) showed that these covariates explained 48% of the observed variation in plasma clozapine concentration (C = ng/mL x 10-3) (P < 0.001) according to the following equation: log 10 (C) = 0.811 log 10 (dose) + 0.332 (MR) + 69.42 X 10 (-3) (sex) + 2.263 x 10 (-3) (age) + 1.976 x 10(-3) (weight) - 0.171 (smoking habit) - 3.180. This model and its associated confidence intervals were used to develop nomograms of plasma clozapine concentration versus dose for male and female smokers and nonsmokers. Predicted plasma clozapine changes by +48% in nonsmokers, +17% in females, +/-8 % for every 0.1 change in MR (reference 1.32), +/-4% for every 5 years (reference 40 years), and +/-5 % for every 10 kg body weight (reference 80 kg). The nomograms can be used (i) to individualize dosage to achieve a given target plasma clozapine concentration, and (ii) for quantitative evaluation of adherence by estimating the likelihood of an observed concentration being achieved by a given dosage regimen. The model has been validated against published data.

Adult↗
PubMed1999

Predictive model of coronary heart disease in Egypt (a disease with multiple risk factors).

As a multifactorial disease and with the need of primordial prevention coronary heart disease (CHT), a risk scoring system for the prediction of CHD was devised at Community Medicine Department Ain Shams University, Cairo, EGYPT. In this matched case-control study of 119 cases and 121 age and sex matched controls, current cigarette smoking, lack of siesta, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, low occupational physical activity, hypercholesterolemia, marital status, urban residence, level of education, work index, coffee consumption, positive family history, BMI, elevated W/H ratio, low HDL and elevated TC/HDL were studied for association with CHD. The additive risk scoring system based on the results of conditional multiple logistic regression identified the first six factors with statistical weights of 1, 5, 10, 6, 6, 11, respectively. On back validation receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, a total score of 17 was found to be the cut off point above which there was increased risk of CHD. The overall predictive accuracy of this system--equivalent to the area under the ROC curve--was 0.873. Future studies need to assess the risk scoring system in population based studies.

Adult↗
PubMed1998

Statistical models predicting embryo survival to term in cattle after embryo transfer.

Embryo survival to term in recipient cattle is highly variable. We examined calving data in the published literature to determine whether a model of binomial independence or a model which includes an embryo (e) and recipient term (r), adequately explain observed embryo survival rates following attempts to induce twin calving using transfer of two embryos. To achieve this we examined 32 published papers which provided us with 47 sets of data concerning 4560 recipients with either 0, 1 or 2 calves born. In each set of data, the observed embryo survival rate to term (p) (number of calves born/number of embryos) was calculated and the expected number of recipients with either 0, 1 or 2 calves born was determined, assuming a binomial distribution. Parameters for the second model were estimated using maximum-likelihood procedures. The model of embryo independence was rejected in 85% of the sets of data, suggesting that factors other than the embryo are important sources of variation in embryo survival or loss. The proposed e and r model of embryo survival adequately describes the published data in recipients receiving either single or twin embryos. In general, only 50-70% of embryos and recipients are sufficiently competent to result in a calving. Variation among laboratories producing either in vitro or in vivo derived embryos was due to variation in recipient and not embryo competence. It is argued that e rather than observed embryo survival rate, and r rather than observed pregnancy rate, should be used to compare differences among embryo treatments and groups of recipients, respectively. Acceptance of this proposition should permit faster progress in identifying the biology of superior embryos and recipients, which is a prerequisite to improving embryo survival rate in cattle. Collectively, the published data are not consistent with a model of embryo independence, and that a model of embryo survival to term which recognises recipient as well as embryo contributions to embryo survival may be more appropriate in cattle.

Animals↗
PubMed2000

Predictive model for survival at the conclusion of a damage control laparotomy.

BACKGROUND: We employed modern statistical and data mining methods to model survival based on preoperative and intraoperative parameters for patients undergoing damage control surgery. METHODS: One hundred seventy-four parameters were collected from 68 damage control patients in prehospital, emergency center, operating room, and intensive care unit (ICU) settings. Data were analyzed with logistic regression and data mining. Outcomes were survival and death after the initial operation. RESULTS: Overall mortality was 66.2%. Logistic regression identified pH at initial ICU admission (odds ratio: 4.4) and worst partial thromboplastin time from hospital admission to ICU admission (odds ratio: 9.4) as significant. Data mining selected the same factors, and generated a simple algorithm for patient classification. Model accuracy was 83%. CONCLUSION: Inability to correct pH at the conclusion of initial damage-control laparotomy and the worst PTT can be predictive of death. These factors may be useful to identify patients with a high risk of mortality.

Critical Illness↗
PubMed2001

A predictive model for regulatory sequences directing liver-specific transcription.

The identification and interpretation of the regulatory signals within the human genome remain among the greatest goals and most difficult challenges in genome analysis. The ability to predict the temporal and spatial control of transcription is likely to require a combination of methods to address the contribution of sequence-specific signals, protein-protein interactions and chromatin structure. We present here a new procedure to identify clusters of transcription factor binding sites characteristic of sequence modules experimentally verified to direct transcription selectively to liver cells. This algorithm is sufficiently specific to identify known regulatory sequences in genes selectively expressed in liver, promising acceleration of experimental promoter analysis. In combination with phylogenetic footprinting, this improvement in the specificity of predictions is sufficient to motivate a scan of the human genome. Potential regulatory modules were identified in orthologous human and rodent genomic sequences containing both known and uncharacterized genes.

Animals↗
PubMed1990

Migration of 99mTc-labelled syngeneic lymphocytes in the rat. Biological and theoretical models predict radiation damage and poor scintigraphic detectability.

The possibility of obtaining useful scintigrams of secondary lymphoid organs after infusion of syngeneic lymphocytes labelled with technetium-99m (99mTc) was explored in a rat model. Thoracic duct lymphocyte (TDL) accumulation in various organs was measured with both 99mTc and 51Cr labelled cells, the latter processed with a method that has been shown not to damage lymphocytes. 99mTc labelled TDL did not localize properly in the lymph nodes and spleen. We could not visualize lymph nodes in scintigrams, neither could we demonstrate any difference between normal and hyperplastic spleens. Our conclusion is that radiation from the 99mTc label readily influences lymphocyte migration so that useful scintigraphy in rats and other small experimental animals becomes impossible. This was supported by results from culture experiments with 99mTc labelled, radiosensitive mouse haemopoietic progenitor cells. Theoretical considerations, including the calculations of lymphocyte self-irradiation and signal/noise ratios during scintigraphy of rat tissues, supported our conclusion that scintigraphy in small animals, to disclose the physiological migration of lymphocytes, may be impossible with the present sensitivity of gamma cameras.

Animals↗
PubMed1990

The prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi and the demography of dog populations after insecticidal spraying of houses: a predictive model.

A three-year demographic and seroparasitological follow-up of the canine population of a rural area of Argentina endemic for Chagas' disease was carried out in order to (a) describe the population dynamics of domestic dogs, and (b) predict the decrease in the prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi among these reservoirs after indoor spraying of houses with residual insecticides. For the latter project we designed an age-structured model with a discrete time scale. We assumed a time-dependent exponential decay in the frequency of infected hosts proportional to the host mortality rate, and also assumed and that no differential mortality existed between infected and non-infected dogs. Validation of the model was carried out, and yielded an extremely close fit between observed and theoretical values. The relevance of the model as an aid to designing strategies for the control of animal domestic reservoirs of T. cruzi, and the role of dogs as efficient sentinels of re-infestation of an area, are discussed.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Dipole interaction model predicted pi-pi* circular dichroism of cyclo(L-Pro)3 using structures created by semi-empirical, ab initio, and molecular mechanics methods.

Cyclo(l-Pro)3 (CP3) is a synthetic peptide created to model cis and torsionally strained peptide bonds that also exhibits a strong distinctive UV circular dichroic (CD) spectrum. Circular dichroic spectra were computed for the amide pi-pi* transition using the dipole interaction model for various conformations of the peptide. Conformations of CP3 were created initially from crystal data, and followed by energy minimizations via molecular mechanics using the cvff force field; the effects of additional geometric optimizations by semi-empirical and ab initio quantum mechanics were investigated. The CD spectra for each conformation were calculated using a variety of different parameters, and each result was compared with the published experimental spectrum [Deber, C.M., Scatturin, A., Vaidya, V.M. & Blout, E.R. (1970) Small cyclic proline peptides: UV absorption and CD. In: Peptides: Chemistry and Biochemistry, Proceedings of the First American Peptide Symposium (Weinstein, B., ed.), Marcel Dekker, New York pp. 163-173]. Herein, two distinct conformations, a C3 symmetric and an asymmetric form, gave CD predictions that separately did not resemble the experimental spectrum. Energy differences were predicted at various theoretical levels, including MP2 and density functional theory. When the predicted CD spectra for each conformation were multiplied by Boltzmann weighting factors created using heats of formation determined by the AM1 optimizations, the weighted composite CD spectrum created did resemble experiment for the pi-pi* transition indicating that both conformations may exist simultaneously in solution.

Circular Dichroism↗
PubMed2005

A predictive model for endometriosis.

BACKGROUND: Aromatase is the key enzyme in the process of estrogen biosynthesis from the precursor androgen. Recently, aromatase has been found to be aberrantly expressed in eutopic endometrium of patients suffering from endometriosis. This finding has prompted speculation about the contribution of this enzyme to the prediction of this disease. METHODS: We prospectively aimed to evaluate whether endometrial biopsy, prior to laparoscopy in symptomatic women to screen for the presence of aromatase by real-time RT-PCR and immunohistochemistry, combined with select patients' characteristics, is of value to predict endometriosis. RESULTS: Of 48 consecutive symptomatic and eligible patients, 25 (52.1%) exhibited endometriosis and 23 (47.9%) were disease-free. A multiple logistic regression model revealed that 95.5% of patients whose eutopic endometrium was found to be positive for aromatase mRNA as well as immunohistochemically detected protein and who were additionally suffering from moderate to severe dysmenorrhoea (visual analogue scale score >4/10) exhibited endometriosis at laparoscopy. CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide direct evidence that screening for eutopic endometrial aromatase in combination with clinical data could be of discriminative value in the prediction of disease.

Adult↗
PubMed1991

A predictive model for the clearance of soluble phospholipase A2 during septic shock.

Circulating phospholipase A2 (PLA2) has been recognized as a mediator of cardiovascular collapse in septic shock. Proximal mediators of endotoxemia, including tumor necrosis factor and interleukin 1, induce PLA2 synthesis and release, but the factors regulating PLA2 elimination are unknown. Similarly, the kinetics of PLA2 clearance during recovery from septic shock have not been examined. An autoregressive mathematical model was developed to describe the rate of PLA2 clearance during the recovery phase of septic shock. This model (which estimates that the current day's PLA2 level is 77% of the previous day's level), accounted for 89% of the variability seen in the data. The estimated circulating half-life of soluble PLA2 in septic shock in man was 32 hours. Since elevation in serum PLA2 activity is closely associated with bacteremia or endotoxemia, a significant deviation from predicted PLA2 values may denote impending relapse.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

Combined physico-chemical and water transfer modelling to predict bacterial growth during food processes.

The quality and safety of food products depend on the microorganisms, the food characteristics and the process. The prediction of conditions that prevent growth in complex situations due to the characteristics of the process and of the food cannot be obtained by predictive models of bacterial growth only. Thus, a combined modelling approach was developed by integrating three models, which were selected in a first step: (1) a bacterial model that predicts the bacterial growth from the physico-chemical properties of the media; (2) a water transfer model that predicts the effects of the drying process variables on the medium characteristics; and (3) a thermodynamic model that predicts the water activity aw and the pH of the media from its composition. A second step consisted in separately validating each selected model in which all of the physical, chemical or biological parameters appearing in the equations were previously measured. The third step combined the three knowledge models. The global model was validated on the basis of experimental results concerning the growth of Listeria innocua on the surface of a gelatine gel, the surface of which was submitted to a drying process (changes in relative humidity and air velocity). It was shown that bacterial growth models had to be modified: a specific model was set up to predict the maximum growth rate and another for the lag. Additionally, growth models set up in broth could not be applied in gelatine, leading to the development of a specific growth model on a solid surface. The thermodynamic model accurately predicted the pH and aw of bacterial broth in which high concentrations of solutes were added, and those of the solid media, the gelatine. The water transfer model was applied on gelatine data to predict the evolution of its surface aw during the drying process. The three models-bacterial, water transfer and thermodynamic, separately validated-were combined according to an integrated modelling strategy. The water transfer model coupled with the thermodynamic model predicted the aw on the gel surface. The predicted surface aw explained why growth inhibition was observed. Indeed, growth stopped at a predicted surface aw <0.94, corresponding to L. innocua minimum aw during the drying process. The global model satisfactorily predicted L. innocua growth on the surface of the gel. This study proves the validity of the approach and shows that the combination of the water transfer and thermodynamic models compensates for the lack of aw measurement techniques.

Adaptation, Physiological↗