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Efficacy of lamivudine re-treatment for relapsed patients after an initial lamivudine therapy in HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B.

The efficacy of lamivudine re-treatment in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients who relapse after HBeAg seroconversion with lamivudine has not been investigated. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of lamivudine re-treatment in relapsed patients. Among 192 patients who had achieved HBeAg seroconversion with lamivudine at a dose of 100 mg/day, 121 patients discontinued lamivudine. Relapse occurred in 49 patients (40.5%). Thirty-three relapsed patients received lamivudine re-treatment for at least 6 months. The mean duration of lamivudine re-treatment was 16 months and the follow-up period was 8.9 months. HBeAg seroconversion was achieved in 23 patients (69.7%). The cumulative HBeAg seroconversion rates at 5, 9, and 12 months were 60, 64, and 67%, respectively. The mean time to HBeAg seroconversion in lamivudine re-treatment was shorter than that in the initial therapy (4.7 months vs. 9.7 months). Viral breakthrough occurred in six (18.2%) patients. All patients with viral breakthrough were accompanied by elevation of serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels. Among 15 patients who discontinued lamivudine re-treatment after HBeAg seroconversion, relapse occurred in six patients (40%). All relapses occurred within 9 months after the discontinuation of lamivudine re-treatment. In conclusion, lamivudine re-treatment in relapsed patients after initial lamivudine therapy had a higher response rate and shorter duration to HBeAg seroconversion than during the initial therapy. However, HBeAg seroconversion induced by lamivudine re-treatment was not durable.

Adult↗

Progression to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in 94 human immunodeficiency virus-positive hemophiliacs with long-term follow-up.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection was transmitted to many hemophilics treated with non-inactivated factor concentrates before 1986. The aim of this study was to know the long-term incidence of AIDS and risk factors for its development in HIV-infected hemophiliacs. DESIGN AND METHODS: This study was a retrospective analysis of 94 HIV-infected hemophilics. The cumulative incidence of AIDS during a follow-up of 16 years from seroconversion was determined by Kaplan-Meier analysis,and potential risk factors were also studied by multivariate analysis. RESULTS: The 16-year estimated incidence of AIDS was 38% (95%CI 27%-52%). The AIDS incidence was significantly higher in patients with hemophilia B (p <0.0001), older age at seroconversion (p=0.0004), lower CD4 counts at seroconversion (p=0.004), and lower concentrate consumption during follow-up (p=0.02), than it was in those patients without these characteristics. However, only hemophilia type and age at seroconversion remained significant in the multivariate analysis, with a relative risk of 0.06 (95%CI 0.02-0.20) for hemophilia A and 1.04(95%CI 1.01-1.06) for every year of increase in age at seroconversion. The severity of hemophilia, history of inhibitors and concentrate consumption before seroconversion were not significantly associated with AIDS development. INTERPRETATION AND CONCLUSIONS: A considerable proportion of HIV-infected hemophiliacs remained AIDS-free 16 years after seroconversion. The risk of AIDS was particularly high in patients with hemophilia B and for patients who were older at seroconversion.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

Risk factors for prevalent and incident HIV infection in a cohort of volunteer blood donors in Harare, Zimbabwe: implications for blood safety.

OBJECTIVES: To compare risk factors for HIV seropositivity with risk factors for HIV seroconversion in a population of volunteer blood donors in Harare, Zimbabwe, and to assess the impact of risk factor exclusion strategies on the safety of the blood supply. DESIGN: A secondary analysis of a longitudinal cohort study was performed. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: The subjects were volunteer blood donors who were also taking part in a prospective cohort study in Harare, Zimbabwe. They were tested for HIV antibodies upon enrollment and at 6-month intervals. Their donation history, age, marital status and the presence or absence of multiple sex partners and paying for sex were assessed as predictors of HIV seropositivity and HIV seroconversion. The impact of exclusion strategies on blood safety was modeled by estimating the number of HIV-infected units that would escape detection by antibody screening if blood donors with these risk factors were excluded. RESULTS: The HIV seroprevalence among persons accepted for blood donation was 8.8%; the HIV seroincidence was 2.1 per 100 person-years. Significant risk factors for HIV seropositivity were being a new donor (odds ratio 7.3, 95% confidence interval 4.4-1 2.1), age over 25 years (odds ratio 1.6, confidence interval 1.1-2.4), being married (odds ratio 1.7, confidence interval 1.2-2.6), paying for sex (odds ratio 2.6, confidence interval 1.7-3.9) and multiple sex partners (odds ratio 2.1, confidence interval 1.4-2.9). Significant risk factors for HIV seroconversion were age under 25 years (hazard ratio 2.5, confidence interval 1.4-5.0) and being unmarried (hazard ratio 2.5, confidence interval 1.4-5.0). Of note, age and marital status reversed their direction of association with respect to HIV seropositivity and HIV seroconversion. Exclusion strategies based on strong predictors of HIV seroconversion were the most effective in improving the safety of the blood supply. CONCLUSIONS: A distinction between risk factors for HIV seropositivity and HIV seroconversion is necessary in order to develop strategies to reduce the residual risk of transfusion-associated HIV transmission. Because window-period donations are the most important source of residual HIV contamination and arise from incident infections, research to develop risk factor exclusion strategies must focus on predictors of HIV seroconversion.

Adolescent↗

Seroprevalence and seroincidence of Norwalk-like virus infection among Brazilian infants and children.

To determine the importance of Norwalk-like viruses (NLVs) as pediatric pathogens in a developing country, the seroprevalence and seroincidence of this group of viruses in a cohort of children less than 4 years of age in an urban shantytown in northeastern Brazil was examined. Serum samples were collected approximately every 6 months from 135 children who were surveyed three times each week for diarrhea and vomiting. NLV IgG was measured by an enzyme immunosorbent assay (EIA) with recombinant Norwalk virus capsid protein. Overall NLV seroprevalence was 71%, and the overall NLV seroconversion rate was 0.7 seroconversions per child-year. The highest age-specific NLV seroconversion rate (0.8 seroconversions per child-year) was observed in the 13-24-month age group. For all study children, the incidence of diarrhea and vomiting was significantly greater (P < 0.01) during time periods spanned by serum pairs that indicated NLV seroconversion compared with time periods without NLV seroconversion. However, NLV seroconversion was not associated with gastrointestinal symptoms during the first year of life.

Brazil↗

Evolution of precore/core promoter mutations in hepatitis B carriers with hepatitis B e antigen seroreversion.

The evolution of precore stop codon mutation (A1896) and dinucleotide mutation (T1762/A1764) in the basic core promoter (BCP) of hepatitis B virus (HBV) genome during transient seroconversion and seroreversion of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) remains unclarified. Five HBeAg-positive HBV carriers who experienced transient seroconversion followed by seroreversion of HBeAg (Group I, 3.3%) and 3 HBeAg-negative HBV carriers with documented reversion of HBeAg (Group II, 2.5%) in a prospective cohort of 272 patients with chronic hepatitis B were thus identified. The sequential changes at the precore nucleotide 1896 and BCP dinucleotide 1762/1764 were determined by polymerase chain reaction and direct sequencing. At enrollement, precore A1896 and BCP T1762/A1764 were noted in 4 (50%) and 1 (13%) of the eight patients. During a median follow-up period of 58 months (range: 31-76 months), 12 episodes of transient HBeAg seroconversion followed by seroreversion were encountered in Group I patients and 3 episodes of HBeAg seroreversion in Group II patients. Accompanying acute exacerbations were found in two-thirds of patients with either HBeAg seroconversion or seroreversion. Overall, precore nucleotide A1896 remained identical in 73% and 83% of the seroconversion and seroreversion events, respectively. BCP dinucleotide T1762/A1764 remained unchanged in 94% and 92% of the seroconversion and seroreversion events, respectively. At the end of follow-up, only one had both precore and BCP mutations. In conclusion, these data suggested that HBeAg seroreversion might be due to the lack of sustained precore and BCP mutations after HBeAg seroconversion. Although uncommon, HBeAg seroreversion can be associated with hepatitis exacerbation.

Adolescent↗

Time from infection with HIV to onset of AIDS in patients with haemophilia in the UK.

The two-stage parametric regression model of Brookmeyer and Goedert has been adapted and fitted to data on the development of AIDS in haemophiliacs in the UK who are seropositive for HIV. The risk of developing AIDS by a given time following seroconversion increases with increasing age at seroconversion. It is likely that the risk increases smoothly with age, although the data have been analysed in three age categories, and it is estimated that by seven years after seroconversion 6 per cent of patients aged under 25 at seroconversion, 20 per cent of those aged 25-44 and 34 per cent of those aged 45 or more have developed AIDS. For a given age at seroconversion the annual risk of developing AIDS increases with increasing time after seroconversion, and at seven years the annual risks of developing AIDS during the next year in the three age groups are estimated to be 2 per cent for those aged less than 25 at seroconversion, and 10 and 11 per cent respectively for those aged 25-44 and 45 or more.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

Safety and efficacy of interferon retreatment in children with chronic hepatitis B.

UNLABELLED: More than 50% of children with chronic hepatitis B do not respond to treatment with alpha-interferon. Since these patients continue to display high viral replication and progressive liver disease, retreatment should be considered. To date it has not been well evaluated whether a second course of treatment could increase the response rate. In two alpha-interferon retreatment trials in adult patients the response rate, defined by seroconversion from HBeAg to anti-HBe, ranged between 11% and 44%. One beta-interferon retreatment study in children reported a seroconversion rate of 32%. Regrettably, none of the studies included a control group observing the 'spontaneous' seroconversion rate after a first interferon cycle. Thus, a nonrandomized alpha-interferon retreatment study in children including control patients was performed. Alpha-interferon for retreatment was administered 3 times a week for 16-24 weeks in 15 children (5-16 years) at least 6 months after ceasing the first cycle. Four children received 5 MU/m2 of a natural alpha-interferon and 11 children 9 MU/m2 recombinant alpha-interferon 2b. Follow up was 18-47 months after initial treatment. In parallel, a control group of 19 unretreated children with comparable clinical and demographic data was followed for 12-39 months. HBeAg seroconversion was observed in 5 (33%) of the retreated children and in 5 (26%) of the control patients during follow up. The difference is not significant. In the initially nonresponding children, those with high ALT levels before the first treatment showed late HBeAg seroconversion more frequently than those with low ALT levels (P=0.017) irrespective of retreatment. The ALT level before retreatment was not a predictor for response. CONCLUSIONS: A second cycle of alpha-interferon during the 3 years following the first treatment in nonresponding children with chronic hepatitis B can be safely performed but did not increase HBeAg/anti-HBe seroconversion compared with the spontaneous seroconversion rate of patients without retreatment.

Adolescent↗

Measurement of HBsAg to monitor hepatitis B viral replication in patients on alpha-interferon therapy.

HBsAg was measured quantitatively in serum samples collected serially before and after the HBeAg seroconversion date from 69 patients with HBeAg seroconversion and 17 patients with both HBeAg and HBsAg seroconversion. In patients with only HBeAg seroconversion the median HBsAg level decreased from 8.39 micrograms/ml (range 0.01-57.51) before HBeAg seroconversion to 3.53 micrograms/ml (range 0.002-68.66) after seroconversion (P < 0.001). No significant drop in HBsAg was found for the control group (18 HBeAg-positive patients without seroconversion). From 12 other patients on alpha-interferon therapy HBsAg was quantitatively assayed monthly during and after therapy; HBsAg levels were compared to the levels of HBV-DNA and HBeAg. We observed a good correlation between the HBsAg level and both the HBV-DNA (r = 0.76; P < 0.001) and the HBeAg (r = 0.70; P < 0.001) level, irrespective of the response to alpha-interferon. Quantified assessment of HBsAg appears promising as a simple and cheap method for monitoring viral replication in chronic hepatitis B in patients undergoing interferon therapy.

Hepatitis B↗

Infection of cattle with bluetongue viruses in Queensland, Australia: results of a sentinel herd study, 1990-1992.

Between 1990 and 1992, 47 sentinel herds of 10-20 cattle each were established throughout Queensland, Australia to monitor bluetongue virus infection. Sixteen herds at 12 locations seroconverted to bluetongue viruses during the study. Herd incidence rates ranged from 0.0 to 3.45 seroconversions per cattle-year at risk. The mean incidence rate was 0.29 seroconversions per cattle-year at risk (95% confidence interval 0.23-0.36), and the median incidence rate was 0.32 seroconversions per cattle-year at risk (95% CI 0.0-0.54). Only seroconversions to bluetongue virus serotypes 1 and/or 21 were detected in the study; no evidence was found of infection with other serotyped previously isolated in Australia (3, 9, 15, 16, 20, 23). Seroconversion to serotype 1 occurred more frequently than seroconversion to serotype 21. Seroconversion generally occurred between April and July, being most common in May, but varied considerably within each of the 3 years of the study. This study confirmed the presence of only serotypes 1 and 21 in Queensland and demonstrated the sporadic and restricted nature of bluetongue virus infection in the Queensland cattle herd.

Animals↗

Maturity of human immunodeficiency virus infection and incubation period of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in injecting drug users.

This study was aimed at estimating the maturity of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic in cohorts of injecting drug users with existing HIV infection at the time of first observation, and using this information to estimate the incubation period of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in this population group. The method imputed the "missing" time from seroconversion to first observation for seroprevalent subjects in a combined cohort including injecting drug users from New York (n = 246) and Baltimore (n = 621). Imputation relied on a probability model predicting time since seroconversion on the basis of two markers of maturity of HIV infection: percent of CD4+ lymphocytes and platelet count. The model was developed from data observed in a combined cohort of subjects from New York (n = 24) and Baltimore (n = 112) who had incident HIV infections. The estimates of median time since seroconversion for the Baltimore and Bronx seroprevalent subcohorts were 28 and 39 months, respectively. The total time from seroconversion to AIDS was then estimated for the incident plus completed-prevalent cohorts using a modified version of the nonparametric product-limit method. The results showed that approximately 95% (95% confidence interval: 90 to 98%) of drug users remained AIDS-free 2 years after seroconversion; 83% (74-91%), 4 years after seroconversion; and 72% (61-82%), 6 years after seroconversion. Median time to AIDS was 10.2 years, with an estimated 95% confidence interval of 7.9 to 12.3 years. Consistency of these results with those derived from large cohorts of homosexual men indicate that the HIV incubation distributions for drug users and homosexual men are similar.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

A prospective study of the risk of transfusion-acquired viral infections.

The risk of transfusion-transmitted viral infections may be estimated by several methods, but only prospective studies of transfusion recipients can directly measure the incidence, with associated 95% upper confidence bound, of these infections. From 1989 through 1995, 764 recipients of allogeneic or autologous red blood cell transfusions were enrolled; 486 (64%) provided both pretransfusion and 6-month follow-up specimens. Both specimens were tested for anti-HBc, anti-HCV, anti-HTLV-I and anti-HIV, with appropriate confirmatory testing. Thirty-nine (8.0%) subjects had seroprevalent anti-HBc, 19 (3.9%) subjects had seroprevalent anti-HCV, three (0.6%) subjects had seroprevalent anti-HTLV-I/II, and one (0.2%) subject had seroprevalent anti-HIV. There were no seroconversions for any agent among the 34 patients who received only autologous blood, and no confirmed seroconversions for anti-HTLV-I or anti-HIV among all subjects. There were three seroconversions for anti-HBc (incidence 1.04 x 10(-3); 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.15 x 10(-4), 3.05 x 10(-3) per allogeneic unit transfused), and two confirmed seroconversions for HCV (incidence 6.94 x 10(-4); 95% CI 8.34 x 10(-5), 2.51 x 10(-3) per allogeneic unit transfused). One of the two anti-HCV seroconversions occurred in March 1994, after the institution of HCV EIA 2.0 screening of donated blood. Transfusion-associated seroconversions to hepatitis B and C markers were observed at low rates in the early 1990s despite testing donors for markers of both viruses, whereas seroconversions to HTLV-I or HIV were less than 1.04 x 10(3) per allogeneic unit transfused, based upon the upper 95% confidence interval of the zero incidence in this study.

Adult↗

Treatment of chronic hepatitis B: case selection and duration of therapy.

Hepatitis B viral (HBV) infection is a major health burden in the Asia-Pacific region. The seriousness of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is often realized at a late stage. The resultant morbidity and mortality from cirrhosis complications is considerable, with a high human cost. The most affected patients are men aged 40 years or older. Two decades ago, the prognosis for the 300 million "Australia antigen"-positive people (people with chronic HBV infection) was gloomy, with no effective intervention. Twenty years on, research and development have changed their outlook. Chronic hepatitis should now be diagnosed early, at the asymptomatic stage. Proper assessment and judicial introduction of therapy can suppress replication of HBV and resolve liver inflammation, thereby preventing the silent progression of chronic liver disease to end-stage cirrhosis. Interferon (IFN) monotherapy has been available for nearly 20 years, but various limitations restrict its general application. Injection-based therapies are inconvenient, the response rate is low (33% hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion rate among optimal cases), side-effects are many, and some serious, and the cost is unaffordable for most people. However, in non-cirrhotic patients with mild to moderate disease activity, IFN is still a worthwhile option because the treatment course is shorter, mutation seems less of a problem and most responses are permanent and reduce or abolish late complications. Lamivudine, an oral nucleoside analog with potent antiviral effects, has been approved in many countries. Daily dosing of 100 mg reduces serum HBV-DNA to below detectable levels within 6 weeks. In HBeAg-positive patients, approximately 16% of treated patients seroconverted with the first year. This was associated with significant improvement in liver histology. Long-term treatment induces further HBeAg seroconversion, but overall clinical benefit is undermined by continuous emergence of drug-resistant YMDD mutants. In an Asian multicentre study, 58 patients on 5 years lamivudine therapy showed annual cumulative HBeAg seroconversion rates at 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 years of 22, 29, 40, 47 and 50%, respectively. The best predictor of response is pretreatment alanine aminotransferase (ALT). Among patients with ALT > 2x the upper limit of normal (ULN), annual HBeAg seroconversion is increased to 38, 42, 65, 73 and 77%, respectively. However, emergence of YMDD mutants occurred at a cumulative rate of 15, 38, 55, 67 and 69%, respectively. The impact of this emergence on disease activity is unpredictable. Thus, while continued disease suppression, or even HBeAg seroconversion, still occurred in some patients, in others hepatitis may relapse and liver failure has been reported despite continuation of lamivudine. While the duration of lamivudine therapy is difficult to define, the best strategy may be to define only active CHB with major ALT elevation (par-ticularly ALT > 5x ULN) for a duration of 1 year or less. Lamivudine can be stopped in responders. The response is durable in approximately 80% of responders. Non-responders should be monitored closely for rebound off treatment. Therapy can be re-instituted if ALT is over 5x ULN. Management of patients with YMDD mutants can be challenging, but there is no clear evidence to recommend stopping or continuing lamivudine, or to add other possible effective agents, such as adefovir dipivoxil. More data are required to help draw up guidelines. Hepatitis B e antigen-negative CHB has been less well studied. Both IFN and lamivudine can suppress disease activity, but permanent responses are few. Without a distinct marker as an end-point for response, the duration of treatment is even more difficult to define. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction for low viral levels may give a clue, but definitive studies are required. Monotherapy is clearly not the answer for the majority of CHB patients with active disease. Combination therapy has the theoretical advantage of additional or synergistic efficacy. Preliminary results on IFN and lamivudine are promising and further clinical trials are ongoing. Emtricitabine (FTC), adefovir dipivoxil, entecavir, BL-thymidine (L-dT), DAPD, clevudine (l-FMAU), thymosin, therapeutic vaccines and various herbal medicines are potential candidates. Antiviral action in conjunction with immune modulation may have a better chance of eradicating HBV and its cccDNA in the hepatocytes as the basis for an eventual successful outcome. The key points are: (i) approved therapeutic agents for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) are IFN, lamivudine and thymosin (in a few countries only); (ii) indications for IFN therapy are viremia in compensated CHB patients with moderately raised ALT; (iii) lamivudine has broader therapeutic indications: it is effective in subgroups of CHB patients with compensated or decompensated liver diseases, but generally works better if patients have raised ALT; (iv) lamivudine has a potent suppressive action on HBV replication, including HBeAg-negative variants, but cannot eliminate cccDNA; this is the reason for the relapse of disease after discontinuing treatment, unless HBeAg seroconversion is obtained; (v) successful use of lamivudine aims at HBeAg seroconversion or profound suppression of HBV-DNA to serum levels of less than 100 000 viral copies/mL, in order to prevent emergence of drug-resistant YMDD mutants (which commences from 6 months onward); (vi) YMDD mutants may cause a flare of hepatitis, resulting in deterioration of liver histology and, occasionally, liver failure; (vii) combination therapy of lamivudine with IFN (standard or pegylated) or other nucleoside analogs should be the next advance. Preliminary data from IFN and lamivudine combination therapy show some promise, but there are conflicting results.

Adjuvants, Immunologic↗

Persistent GB virus C infection and survival in HIV-infected men.

BACKGROUND: GB virus C (GBV-C), which is not known to be pathogenic in humans, replicates in lymphocytes, inhibits the replication of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in vitro, and has been associated with a decreased risk of death among HIV-positive persons in some, but not all, studies. Previous studies did not control for differences in the duration of HIV or GBV-C infection. METHODS: We evaluated 271 men who were participants in the Multicenter Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome Cohort Study for GBV-C viremia (by means of a reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction assay) or E2 antibody (by means of an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) 12 to 18 months after seroconversion to positivity for HIV (the early visit); a subgroup of 138 patients was also evaluated 5 to 6 years after HIV seroconversion (the late visit). RESULTS: GBV-C infection was detected in 85 percent of men with HIV seroconversion on the basis of the presence of E2 antibody (46 percent) or GBV-C RNA (39 percent). Only one man acquired GBV-C viremia between the early and the late visit, but 9 percent of men had clearance of GBV-C RNA between these visits. GBV-C status 12 to 18 months after HIV seroconversion was not significantly associated with survival; however, men without GBV-C RNA 5 to 6 years after HIV seroconversion were 2.78 times as likely to die as men with persistent GBV-C viremia (95 percent confidence interval, 1.34 to 5.76; P=0.006). The poorest prognosis was associated with the loss of GBV-C RNA (relative hazard for death as compared with men with persistent GBV-C RNA, 5.87; P=0.003). CONCLUSIONS: GBV-C viremia was significantly associated with prolonged survival among HIV-positive men 5 to 6 years after HIV seroconversion, but not at 12 to 18 months, and the loss of GBV-C RNA by 5 to 6 years after HIV seroconversion was associated with the poorest prognosis. Understanding the mechanisms of interaction between GBV-C and HIV may provide insight into the progression of HIV disease.

Adult↗

Risk factors and changes in sexual behavior in male homosexuals who seroconverted for human immunodeficiency virus antibodies.

In Amsterdam, The Netherlands, a cohort of 982 homosexual and bisexual men has been studied since 1984. Of these, 238 men had antibodies to the human immunodeficiency virus at the onset of the study, and 84 men seroconverted while under study. For each of these seroconversions, two participants who remained seronegative were chosen for comparison, taking the seroconversion date as a reference. This offered an opportunity to study any changes that may have occurred longitudinally, i.e., over time. Risk factors for seroconversion were studied along with changes in sexual behavior relative to the moment of seroconversion. The number of different partners in anogenital receptive intercourse and a history of syphilis or anogenital herpes simplex were found to be predictors for human immunodeficiency virus seroconversion. The data suggest that, prior to seroconversion, there is a peak in riskful sexual behavior and that the "decline" often observed immediately after seroconversion is, in fact, an indication of a return to "normal" sexual activity.

Adult↗

Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) risk in recent and long-standing human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-infected patients with similar CD4 lymphocyte counts.

The loss of CD4 lymphocytes is known to be an important component of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) pathogenesis. It remains unclear, however, whether the importance of the CD4 lymphocyte count is such that individuals who have been infected for widely different lengths of time, but for whom the CD4 lymphocyte count is the same, have the same risk of developing acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The authors directly addressed this question for 111 HIV-1-infected hemophiliacs who had been followed for up to 12 years from seroconversion and for whom a median of 16 CD4 lymphocyte counts had been made. Thirty-eight patients had developed AIDS by January 1, 1992. As of August 1, 1985, the time from seroconversion to AIDS ranged from 3 weeks to almost 6 years. The risk of AIDS increased with time from seroconversion (relative hazard = 1.25 per year; p = 0.09). CD4 lymphocyte count was strongly related to time from seroconversion and also to the risk of AIDS (relative hazard = 3.25 per 100/mm3; p < 0.00005). In a bivariate Cox regression model, the relative hazard for time from seroconversion fell markedly towards unity (1.05; p = 0.7), while that for CD4 lymphocyte count remained unchanged. This suggests that time from seroconversion is a relevant factor in HIV-1 infection only insofar as it provides information as to the probable degree of loss of CD4 lymphocytes. If the number of these cells is known, time from seroconversion seems to be of little additional value in assessing the risk of AIDS. This finding has implications for the clinical assessment of individual patient prognosis, for the design of epidemiologic studies of HIV-1 infection, and for our understanding of how HIV-1 causes disease.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

Progression of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection among homosexual men in hepatitis B vaccine trial cohorts in Amsterdam, New York City, and San Francisco, 1978-1991.

The authors evaluated the progression of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) disease from the date of seroconversion to the development of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and death among 362 well-documented seroconverters. The participants were homosexual men in hepatitis B vaccine trials in Amsterdam (n = 74), New York City (n = 120), and San Francisco (n = 168). There were significant differences in the proportion of deaths, mean age at seroconversion, and mean age at AIDS diagnosis in the three cohorts, but no significant differences in the reported use of zidovudine and Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia prophylaxis. Overall progression rates did not differ significantly across the cohorts: the median time to the development of AIDS was 122 months, and the median time from the initial AIDS diagnosis to death was 20 months. Multivariate proportional hazards analysis of progression from HIV-1 seroconversion to the development of AIDS found faster progression after June 1989. Multivariate proportional hazards analysis of progression from AIDS to death found younger age at diagnosis, an initial diagnosis of Kaposi's sarcoma, and more recent calendar time to be associated with slower progression. Multivariate proportional hazards analysis of progression from HIV-1 seroconversion to death found older age at seroconversion to be associated with faster progression. The 1987 expansion of the AIDS case definition, improved diagnostic methods, and more conscientious care-seeking behaviors may have resulted in diagnosis of AIDS at an earlier stage of HIV-1 infection, which would shorten the apparent time from seroconversion to progression to AIDS. This would also tend to increase survival after an initial AIDS diagnosis, which was observed in the more recent calendar periods, although such increases could also result from improved treatments and prophylaxis for HIV-1 disease. The time from seroconversion to death, a period not influenced by variations in diagnosing AIDS, lengthened only slightly in recent years.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

Longitudinal study of Borrelia burgdorferi infection in New Jersey outdoor workers, 1988-1991.

From 1988 to 1991, annual questionnaires and serosurveys were performed in a cohort of outdoor workers in New Jersey at high risk for Lyme disease to 1) evaluate temporal trends in seroprevalence and seroconversion of antibody to Borrelia burgdorferi; 2) identify risk factors for B. burgdorferi seroconversion during these years; and 3) examine associations between such seroconversion in 1989-1990 and anti-tick saliva antibody (ATSA, a biologic marker of tick exposure) seropositivity in 1990. A total of 1,519 workers participated in at least 1 year of the study. Lyme disease seroprevalence and seroconversion increased from 1988 to 1990 and then decreased in 1991. Years at residence, rural residence, and a history of medical problems were observed to be risk factors for seroconversion from 1988 to 1991. An interaction between pet ownership and rural residence was observed in that rural residents were only at an elevated risk if they owned pets. B. burgdorferi seroconversion from 1989 to 1990 was associated with ATSA seropositivity in 1990; in subjects reporting low tick exposure, the odds ratio was 8.2 (95% confidence interval 1.5-44.7). Associations between ATSA and B. burgdorferi serologic status suggested that educational programs may have contributed to the decline in Lyme seroprevalence and seroconversion in 1991.

Animals↗

Evidence for limited within-person evolution of the V3 domain of the HIV-1 envelope in the amsterdam population.

OBJECTIVE: To study the development of the V3 region of the HIV-1 envelope over time, both within subjects and population-wide. METHODS: Direct V3 sequences were obtained from viral RNA from seroconversion samples of 138 individuals [32 intravenous drug users (IVDU), 106 homosexual men], as well as from 5-year follow-up samples of 45 of these individuals (11 IVDU, 34 homosexual men). RESULTS: The population-wide variation of the V3 region in both the seroconversion samples and the 5-year samples steadily increased over consecutive years and were of similar magnitude in each calendar year. The variation in the IVDU group was slightly lower (presumably lagging behind) than in the homosexual group, but also increased over time. The consensus sequence, representing the centre of the swarm of variants, remained almost stationary in 10 years of evolution. The V3 sequences from virions in serum collected 5 years after seroconversion still resembled those from the seroconversion sample, either in overall similarity or in specific (signature) amino acids. Seroconversion and late sequences from a donor-recipient pair were also very similar. CONCLUSIONS: The variation in V3 sequences from seroconversion samples is as large as that in 5-year follow-up samples from the same calendar year, suggesting that there is no strong selection for a particular V3 genotype at transmission. The HIV-1 subtype B quasispecies in a naive population appears to evolve through unbiased expansion around a stationary consensus sequence. Despite its large variability, the V3 region retains many of its individual characteristics after 5 years of infection. This indicates that the sampling moment (relative to the seroconversion data) will not greatly influence the results of phylogenetic analyses.

Base Sequence↗