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Econometric mixture models and more general models for unobservables in duration analysis.

This paper considers models for unobservables in duration models. It demonstrates how cross-section and time-series variation in regressors facilitates identification of single-spell, competing risks and multiple spell duration models. We also demonstrate the limited value of traditional identification studies by considering a case in which a model is identified in the conventional sense but cannot be consistently estimated.

Algorithms↗

Implementation of a combined association-linkage model for quantitative traits in linear mixed model procedures of statistical packages.

A transmission disequilibrium test for quantitative traits which combines association and linkage analyses is currently available in several dedicated software packages. We describe how to implement such models in linear mixed model procedures that are available in widely used statistical packages such as SPSS. We also briefly mention a few extensions of the model that become naturally available once the model is implemented in such procedures.

Diseases in Twins↗

A theoretical model of the tridimensional structure of Bacillus thuringiensis subsp. medellin Cry 11Bb toxin deduced by homology modelling.

Cry11Bb is an insecticidal crystal protein produced by Bacillus thuringiensis subsp. medellin during its stationary phase; this partial differential-endotoxin is active against dipteran insects and has great potential for mosquito borne disease control. Here, we report the first theoretical model of the tridimensional structure of a Cry11 toxin. The tridimensional structure of the Cry11Bb toxin was obtained by homology modelling on the structures of the Cry1Aa and Cry3Aa toxins. In this work we give a brief description of our model and hypothesize the residues of the Cry11Bb toxin that could be important in receptor recognition and pore formation. This model will serve as a starting point for the design of mutagenesis experiments aimed to the improvement of toxicity, and to provide a new tool for the elucidation of the mechanism of action of these mosquitocidal proteins.

Bacillus thuringiensis↗

Genetic evaluation of mastitis in dairy cattle using linear models, threshold models, and survival analysis: a simulation study.

The objective was to study, by simulation, whether survival analysis results in a more precise genetic evaluation for mastitis in dairy cattle than cross-sectional linear models and threshold models by using observation periods for mastitis of 2 lengths (the first 150 d of lactation, and the full lactation, respectively). True breeding values for mastitis liability on the underlying scale were simulated for daughters of 400 sires (average daughter group size, 60 or 150), and the possible event of a mastitis case within lactation for each cow was created. For the linear models and the threshold models, mastitis was defined as a binary trait within either the first 150 d of lactation or the full lactation. For the survival analysis, mastitis was defined as the number of days from calving to either the first case of mastitis (uncensored record) or to the day of censoring (i.e., day of culling, lactation d 150 or day of next calving; censored record). Cows could be culled early in lactation (within 10 d after calving) for calving-related reasons or later on because of infertility. The correlation between sire true breeding values for mastitis liability and sire predicted breeding values was greater when using the full lactation data (0.76) than when using data from the first 150 d (0.70) with an average of 150 daughters per sire. The corresponding results were 0.60 and 0.53, respectively, with an average of 60 daughters per sire. Under these simulated conditions, the method used had no effect on accuracy. The higher accuracy of sire breeding values can be translated into a greater genetic gain, unless counteracted by a longer generation interval.

Animals↗

[Experimental hepatocarcinogenesis--evaluation of the significance of experimental modeling. Classical models].

There are an increasing number of models for the study of liver cancer development with such agents as chemicals, hormones, and viruses. This process is almost always a multistep and during the long period of cancer development, discrete cells or cell populations acquire step-by-step the various properties that go to make up a cancer. The hepatocarcinogenesis models are useful in identification and analysis of the preneoplastic and neoplastic alterations, as well HCC. This article presents a review of theoretical foundation and mechanisms of various models of experimental hepatocarcinogenesis as well contain a short presentation of animals practical in those experiments, principally rats. The remarkable similarities between many models with different carcinogens in animals and humans suggest the importance of such studies in understanding of molecular basis of liver cancer development.

Animals↗

Use of mathematical models for the evaluation of two- and three-drug combination chemotherapy in murine tumor models.

In parallel with an ongoing clinical trial in patients with metastatic mammary carcinoma, we compared the three-drug combination of cyclophosphamide, tegafur, and methotrexate with the two-drug combination of cyclophosphamide and tegafur in the murine L1210 leukemia and B16 melanoma models. The obtained data based on a central composite design were calculated by mathematical models, which estimate optimum dose combinations for survival by restricting side effect constraints (loss of weight, leukopenia). The main results were as follows: (a) long-term survival can be reached only by accepting a relatively high toxicity in each case, and (b) in the L1210 model the three-drug combination was superior to the two-drug combination, while in the B16 melanoma cyclophosphamide as a single agent offered the best results. The experimental yields are in accordance with preliminary results of the clinical trial. The mathematical model used offers the possibility of comparing drug combinations in a relatively economic way.

Animals↗

A three-dimensional model of the delta-opioid pharmacophore: comparative molecular modeling of peptide and nonpeptide ligands.

A comparative molecular modeling study of delta-opioid ligands was performed under the assumption that potent peptide and nonpeptide agonists may have common three-dimensional (3D) arrangement of pharmacophore groups upon binding to the delta-receptor. Low-energy conformations of the agonists 7-spiroindanyloxymorphone (SIOM) and 2-methyl-4a-alpha-(3-hydroxyphenyl)-1,2,3,4,4a,5,12, 12a-alpha-octahydro-quinolino[2,3,3-g]isoquinoline (TAN-67), and a partial agonist oxomorphindole (OMI) were determined by high-temperature molecular dynamics (MD). A good spatial overlap was found for the pharmacophore groups of SIOM, TAN-67, and OMI, including the basic nitrogen, phenol hydroxyl, and two aromatic ring. Based on this overlap we proposed a 3D pharmacophore model for nonpeptide delta-opioid agonists with a distance of 7.0 +/- 1.3 A between the two aromatic rings and of 8.2 +/- 1.0 A between the nitrogen and phenyl ring. The potent and highly delta-opioid receptor selective agonist [(2S,3R)-TMT(1)]DPDPE, which shares global backbone constraints of the 14-membered disulfide cycle and a strong preference for the trans rotamer of the TMT(1) side chain, was chosen as a peptide template of the delta-opioid pharmacophore. Extensive MD simulations at 300 K with the AMBER force field were performed for [(2S,3R)-TMT(1)]DPDPE and the less potent [(2S, 3S)-TMT(1)]DPDPE analogue. Multiple MD trajectories were collected for each peptide starting from the x-ray structures of DPDPE and [L-Ala(3)]DPDPE and from models proposed in the literature. Low-energy MD conformations were filtered by the nonpeptide pharmacophore query and then directly superimposed with SIOM, OMI, and TAN-67. Two conformers of [(2S,3R)-TMT(1)]DPDPE that showed the best overlap with the nonpeptide pharmacophore (rms deviation </= 1. 0 A for N,O atoms and centroids of two aromatic rings) were selected as possible delta-receptor binding conformations. These conformations have similar backbone structures, and trans rotamers of the TMT(1) side-chain group. They are reasonably close to the crystal structure of [L-Ala(3)]DPDPE, and differ significantly from the crystal structure of DPDPE. The conformer with a gauche(-) rotamer of Phe(4) is most consistent with structure-activity relationships of delta-opioid peptides. The proposed 3D models were used for rational design of new nonpeptide delta-receptor ligands.

Analgesics↗

Modeling the progression of rheumatoid arthritis: a two-country model to estimate costs and consequences of rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: Two simulation models were developed to analyze the cost-effectiveness of new treatments that affect the progression of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: We used data from 2 cohorts of patients with early RA who had been followed up since disease onset (up to 15 years). In the Swedish study, 183 patients were followed up for a mean of 11.3 years. In the UK study, 916 patients were followed up for a mean of 7.8 years. Disease progression over 10 years was modeled as annual transitions between disease states, defined by Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) scores. A regression model was used to estimate transition probabilities conditional on age, sex, and time since onset of disease, in order to allow simulation of different patient cohorts. Costs and utilities associated with different HAQ levels were based on data from the cohort studies and cross-sectional surveys. RESULTS: Costs increase and quality of life decreases as RA progresses. In Sweden, total annual costs range from 4,900 dollars to 33,000 dollars per patient, compared with 4,900 dollars to 14,600 dollars in the UK. Cumulative costs over 10 years for patients starting in disease state 1 (HAQ < 0.6) are 54,600 dollars in Sweden and 26,600 dollars in the UK. The cumulative numbers of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) are 5.5 and 5.6, respectively. Both costs and QALYs were discounted at 3%. CONCLUSION: The 2 models, which were based on different patient cohorts, reach a similar conclusion in terms of the effect of RA over 10 years. They appear to accurately capture disease progression and its effects and can therefore be useful in estimating the cost-effectiveness of new treatments in RA.

Aged↗

Dynamic volume-averaged model of heat and mass transport within a compost biofilter: I. Model development.

Successful, long-term operation of a biofilter system depends on maintaining a suitable biofilm environment within a porous medium reactor. In this article a mathematical study was conducted of the spatial and temporal changes of biofilter performance due to interphase heat and mass transport. The method of volume averaging was used to spatially smooth the three-phase (solid, liquid, and gas) conservation equations over the biofilter domain. The packing medium was assumed to be inert, removing the solid phase mass continuity equation from the system. The finite element method was used to integrate the resulting nonlinear-coupled partial differential equations, tracking eight state variables: temperature, water vapor, dry air, liquid water, biofilm, gas and liquid phase organic pollutant, and nutrient densities, through time and space. A multiphase, gas and liquid flow model was adapted to the biofilter model from previous studies of unsaturated groundwater flow. Newton's method accelerated by an LU direct solver was used to iterate the model for solutions. Effects of packing media on performance were investigated to illustrate the utility of the model. The moisture dynamics and nutrient cycling are presented in Part II of this article.

Biofilms↗

Modeling chromate reduction in Shewanella oneidensis MR-1: development of a novel dual-enzyme kinetic model.

Chromate (Cr(VI)) reduction tests were performed with nitrate- and fumarate-grown stationary phase cultures of Shewanella oneidensis MR-1 (henceforth referred to as MR-1) and disappearance of Cr(VI) was monitored over time. A rapid initial decrease in Cr(VI) concentration was observed, which was followed by a slower, steady decrease. These observations appear to be consistent with our previous results indicating that Cr(VI) reduction in MR-1 involves at least two mechanisms (Viamajala et al., 2002b). Modeling of metal reduction kinetics is often based on single-enzyme Michaelis-Menten equations. However, these models are often developed using initial rates and do not always match actual reduction profiles. Based on the hypothesis that multiple Cr(VI) reduction mechanisms exist in MR-1, a model was developed to describe the kinetics of Cr(VI) reduction by two parallel mechanisms: (1) a rapid Cr(VI) reduction mechanism that was deactivated (or depleted) quickly, and (2) a slower mechanism that had a constant activity and was sustainable for a longer duration. Kinetic parameters were estimated by fitting experimental data, and model fits were found to correspond very closely to quantitative observations of Cr(VI) reduction by MR-1.

Cell Culture Techniques↗

Detection of parent-of-origin effects for atopy by model-free and model-based linkage analyses.

Parent-of-origin effects for atopy were investigated by a model-free affected sib-pair (ASP) method and two model-based approaches in the Busselton nuclear families. Among the regions showing potential linkages to atopy by the ASP method, a significant excess of paternal allele sharing as compared with maternal allele sharing was observed for a cluster of three markers on chromosome 13. The two model-based methods, which specify either sex-specific recombination rates or different penetrances for heterozygotes according to the parental origin of disease allele (imprinting), led to the same results, both suggesting a paternal effect. Thus, these two ways of modelling parent-of-origin effects appear equivalent in nuclear family data. Further simulations are needed to investigate whether the mechanisms underlying parent-of-origin effects can be distinguished in larger pedigree structures.

Adult↗

Predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in Italy: a model based on asbestos consumption figures supports results from age-period-cohort models.

Italy was the second main asbestos producer in Europe, after the Soviet Union, until the end of the 1980s, and raw asbestos was imported on a large scale until 1992. The Italian pattern of asbestos consumption lags on average about 10 years behind the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom and the Nordic countries. Measures to reduce exposure were introduced in the mid-1970s in some workplaces. In 1986, limitations were imposed on the use of crocidolite and in 1992 asbestos was definitively banned. We have used primary pleural cancer mortality figures (1970-1999) to predict mortality from mesothelioma among Italian men in the next 30 years by age-cohort-period models and by a model based on asbestos consumption figures. The pleural cancer/mesothelioma ratio and mesothelioma misdiagnosis in the past were taken into account in the analysis. Estimated risks of birth cohorts born after 1945 decrease less quickly in Italy than in other Western countries. The findings predict a peak with about 800 mesothelioma annual deaths in the period 2012-2024. Results estimated using age-period-cohort models were similar to those obtained from the asbestos consumption model.

Adult↗

Comparative study into the robustness of compartmental modeling and model-free analysis in DCE-MRI studies.

PURPOSE: To evaluate and compare the reproducibility of the preferred phenomenological parameter IAUC60 (initial area under the time-concentration curve [IAUC] defined over the first 60 seconds postenhancement) with the preferred modeling parameter (K(trans)), as derived using two simple models, in abdominal and cerebral data collected in typical Phase I clinical trial conditions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Dynamic contrast enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) time series were acquired at two imaging centers from a group of patients with abdominal tumors and a group with gliomas. At both imaging centers, precontrast T1 was calculated using a variable flip angle three-dimensional spoiled gradient echo acquisition that was used to quantify tissue contrast agent concentration, allowing voxelwise definition of summary DCE-MRI parameters. RESULTS: A comparison of reproducibility showed that there was no statistically significant difference in reproducibility between IAUC60 and K(trans), although there was a trend towards better reproducibility for K(trans) (P = 0.0782). The 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for individual changes showed that for IAUC60 and K(trans), changes in excess of 47% and 31%, respectively, are outside the range of normal variability. CONCLUSION: Although modeling is more complex and more computationally intensive than an IAUC parameterization, our data suggest this approach to be preferable to a model-free approach since it provides greater physiological insight without a reduction in statistical power for Phase I/II clinical drug trials.

Abdominal Neoplasms↗

Physiological perfusion model for cephalosporin antibiotics I: Model selection based on blood drug concentrations.

Various cephalosporins with different degrees of protein binding were administered to human volunteers. Blood samples were collected as a function of time and were assayed for drug content by a microbiological assay. A pharmacokinetic analysis of the data was performed using a two-compartment model with and without protein binding in the central compartment and a perfusion model. Both the two-compartment model without protein binding and the physiological perfusion model adequately described the blood levels of all three cephalosporins.

Blood Proteins↗

Physical model evaluation of topical prodrug delivery-simultaneous transport and bioconversion of vidarabine-5'-valerate I: Physical model development.

A physical model approach to the topical delivery of a vidarabine ester prodrug was investigated. It involved modeling, theoretical simulations, experimental method development for factoring and quantifying parameters, and, finally, employment of the deduced parameters to determine the steady-state species fluxes and concentration profiles in the target tissue. The present report describes the physical modeling and theoretical simulation aspects. The physical model for the simultaneous transport and bioconversion of a topically delivered prodrug was formulated assuming homogeneous enzyme distributions and constant diffusivities in the membrane. The mathematical problem was solved, and the solution yielded concentration profiles and fluxes of all species in the biomembrane. These results provided the prevailing levels of the prodrug, the drug, and the metabolite at the target site and the transport rates of all species into the bloodstream. Computations of concentration profiles and fluxes were carried out for a reasonable range of the parameters. The relative activities of the esterase and the deaminase enzymes, as well as the stratum corneum permeabilities, were important in influencing the concentration profiles and fluxes of all species.

Administration, Topical↗

Test of the health promotion model as a causal model of commitment to a plan for exercise among Korean adults with chronic disease.

The purpose of this study was to test seven constructs (prior experience of exercise, perceived health status, exercise benefits, exercise barriers, exercise self-efficacy, social support for exercise, and options for exercise) from the health promotion model (HPM) as a causal model of commitment to a plan for exercise in a sample of 400 Korean adults with chronic disease. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), we found that all fit indices indicated a good fit. The final model accounted for 54% of the variance in commitment to a plan for exercise. Prior experience with exercise and exercise benefits were the factors most highly related. Health professionals can assess prior experience and emphasize personally relevant benefits of exercise in designing intervention programs to help Korean adults with chronic disease become more physically active.

Chronic Disease↗

Molecular modeling studies on CNG channel from bovine retinal rod: a structural model of the cyclic nucleotide-binding domain.

A dimeric model of the cyclic nucleotide-binding domain of the all-alpha homomeric cyclic nucleotide-gated channel from bovine retinal rod is constructed. The model, based on the structure of the fairly homologous catabolite gene activator protein (Weber and Steitz, J Mol Biol 1987;198:311-326), is obtained by use of comparative modeling and molecular dynamics simulations. Our model provides a structural basis for the experimentally measured difference in activity between cAMP and cGMP, as well as the different solvent accessibilities of GLY597 in the complex with cGMP, with cAMP and in the protein in free state. In addition, it provides support for the rearrangement of the domain C helix on ligand binding and releasing proposed by Matulef et al. (Neuron 1999;24:443-452).

Animals↗

Models for temporal variation in cancer rates. II: Age-period-cohort models.

Our first paper reviewed methods for modelling variation in cancer incidence and mortality rates in terms of either period effects or cohort effects in the general multiplicative risk model. There we drew attention to the difficulty of attributing regular trends to either period or cohort influences. In this paper we turn to the more realistic problem in which neither period nor cohort effects alone lead to an adequate description of the data. We describe the age-period-cohort model and show how its ambiguities surrounding regular trends 'intensify'. We recommend methods for presenting the results of analyses based upon this model which minimize the serious risk of misleading implications and critically review previous suggestions. The discussion is illustrated by an analysis of breast cancer mortality in Japan with special reference to the phenomenon of 'Clemmesen's hook'.

Age Factors↗