Beyond demographic transition: industrialization and population change in Singapore.
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"This article updates the literature survey on demographic trends and policies published in the May 1987 issue of this journal. It reports substantial adjustments in earlier population projections, suggesting slower decline in population growth rates for China and several other Asian countries. It gives an account of recent trends and policies in the Asian-Pacific region, especially China, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore."
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"The beginning of the decrease of fertility in the Czech Lands can be placed in the first decades of the 19th century...as a result of the declining marriage rate. From the 1880's [on] there was added the restriction of marital fertility which gradually extended to all parts of society and to the whole of the country. There were important regional differences as regards the beginning, duration and end of the decline of fertility. These differences led to the relatively high variation coefficient in the level of fertility according to districts in the period when the level of fertility throughout the country dropped (1900-1930), whereas in the preceding and subsequent periods deviations from the average values were considerably lower." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
"This paper gives an overview of the recent demographic history of countries in sub-Saharan Africa, especially the start of a fertility decline. After discussing the evidence for a decline, and the nature of changes in fertility behaviour, the paper moves on to look at possible causes, in relation to development policy. Mortality, cultural structure, the status of women, education and economic crisis are all considered as candidates. The conclusion is reached that available evidence raises as many questions about the causes of fertility decline as it resolves, particularly in our understanding of the process of change. Finally, the potential consequences of falls in fertility and population growth slowdown in sub-Saharan Africa are considered."
Fifty years have passed since the post-World War II development of demography as an academic field. During this time, one of the central focuses of research has been the study of demographic and fertility transitions. The authors review a selection of research developments and analytic issues that have appeared in the literature. After presenting, in roughly chronological order, the general development of this research work, they raise questions concerning theory and methodology. In doing so, they argue that some research directions have been overemphasized to the neglect of others.
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"This paper uses a perfect foresight life cycle simulation model to examine the dynamic economic effects of baby 'booms' and baby 'busts' as well as the interaction of such demographic changes with social security policy. Demographic change can have sizeable short and long-run effects on saving rates and factors returns." The geographic focus is on the United States. "The model predicts long-run improvement in welfare associated with a prolonged baby bust. This improvement holds even in the absence of accommodating social security policy. It reflects a long-run decline in the dependency ratio, with the reduction in dependent children per worker more than offsetting the increase in retirees per worker."