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PubMed1988

Secular trends of infectious disease mortality in The Netherlands, 1911-1978: quantitative estimates of changes coinciding with the introduction of antibiotics.

Secular trends of mortality from 21 infectious diseases in the Netherlands were studied by inspection of age/sex-standardized mortality curves and by log-linear regression analysis. An attempt was made to obtain quantitative estimates for changes coinciding with the introduction of antibiotics. Two possible types of effect were considered: a sharp reduction of mortality at the moment of the introduction of antibiotics, and a longer lasting (acceleration of) mortality decline after the introduction. Changes resembling the first type of effect were possibly present for many infectious diseases, but were difficult to measure exactly, due to late effects on mortality of World War II. Changes resembling the second type of effect were present in 16 infectious diseases and were sometimes quite large. For example, estimated differences in per cent per annum mortality change were 10% or larger for puerperal fever, scarlet fever, rheumatic fever, erysipelas, otitis media, tuberculosis, and bacillary dysentery. No acceleration of mortality decline after the introduction of antibiotics was present in mortality from 'all other diseases'. Although the exact contribution of antibiotics to the observed changes cannot be inferred from this time trend analysis, the quantitative estimates of the changes show that even a partial contribution would represent a substantial effect of antibiotics on mortality from infectious diseases in the Netherlands.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1991

Sexual contact patterns between men and women and the spread of HIV-1 in urban centres in Africa.

A simple model of the transmission of HIV-1 by heterosexual contact and from mother to unborn infant is developed to assess the influence of patterns of mixing between low and high sexual activity classes of the two sexes on the pattern of spread of the virus and the demographic impact of AIDS. Numerical studies of model behaviour are based, where possible, on parameter estimates derived from epidemiological studies of HIV-1 spread in Africa. Analyses reveal that the assumed pattern of mixing, ranging from assortative (like with like) through random (proportional) to disassortative (like with unlike), has a very major impact on the predicted spread of the virus and the concomitant demographic impact of AIDS. Patterns of strong assortative mixing are predicted to generate the least spread and demographic impact, by comparison with proportional or disassortative mixing. Analyses also reveal that the rules governing behaviour changes, once AIDS-induced mortality changes the structure of the population (i.e. the numbers in the low and high sexual activity classes of the two sexes), have a very significant influence on the course of the epidemic. Where possible, predicted patterns are compared with observed trends in Africa.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1983

Perinatal mortality: changes in the diagnostic panorama 1974-1980.

During the period 1974-1980, all late abortions (greater than 19 completed gestational weeks) (LA), late fetal deaths (LFD) and early neonatal deaths (END) were surveyed in a continuous material of 17813 births with an ascertained gestational age established by early ultrasound fetometry. There was no maternal death during the period. The total perinatal mortality (PM) was 0.98% with an END rate of 0.51%. In about 45% of LFD no diagnosis was found. Intrapartum death was extremely rare as was END caused by asphyxia or infection. In END, death from immaturity constituted the major group in the beginning of the period, while after 1977 lethal malformations was the dominating diagnosis. There was a continuous decrease in Idiopathic Respiratory Distress Syndrome (IRDS) as a cause of END. The proportion of END in extremely premature children showed a constant decrease in the beginning of the period. No difference in sex was found in END except for lethal malformations where there was a significant male preponderance. As a consequence of a more active obstetrical care, some fetuses who would previously have been classified as LA were probably delivered liveborn, extremely premature and appeared as END. The question of where to set the limits for what should be included in PM is thus highly relevant.

Abortion, Spontaneous↗
PubMed1992

Childhood mortality after a high dose of vitamin A in a high risk population.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether a single high dose of vitamin A given to all children in communities with high mortality and malnutrition could affect mortality and to assess whether periodic community wide supplementation could be readily incorporated into an ongoing primary health programme. DESIGN: Opportunistic controlled trial. SETTING: Jumla district, Nepal. SUBJECTS: All children aged under 5 years; 3786 in eight subdistricts given single dose of vitamin A and 3411 in remaining eight subdistricts given no supplementation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality and cause of death in the five months after supplementation. RESULTS: Risk of death for children aged 1-59 months in supplemented communities was 26% lower (relative risk 0.74, 95% confidence interval 0.55 to 0.99) than in unsupplemented communities. The reduction in mortality was greatest among children aged 6-11 months: death rate (deaths/1000 child years at risk) was 133.8 in supplemented children and 260.8 in unsupplemented children (relative risk 0.51, 0.30 to 0.89). The death rate from diarrhoea was also reduced (63.5 supplemented v 97.5 unsupplemented; relative risk 0.65, 0.44 to 0.95). The extra cost per death averted was about $11. CONCLUSION: The results support a role for Vitamin A in increasing child survival. The supplementation programme was readily integrated with the ongoing community health programme at little extra cost.

Child Health Services↗
PubMed1991

Mortality trend in a rapidly developing economy in Taiwan. Part II: Life expectancy and "potential years of life lost".

Taiwan has made remarkable economic progress in the last 30 years. The life expectancy of its population improved steadily during this period. A male child born in 1983 could look forward to 70.4 years of life and a female child to 75.3 years, gains of 17.5 years and 19.0 years, respectively, since 1950. The potential gains in life expectancy of the Taiwan population are also examined if the five leading causes of death are reduced or eliminated. In addition, this paper discusses the concept of potential productive years of life lost (PYLL), examines the leading causes of premature death and shows how this measure can be used to target prevention programs and health care planning.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1985

Pursuing longevity: delay vs elimination of degenerative diseases.

Using a new model which allows for projection of mortality change resulting from preventive health care measures, prospective changes in longevity for the resident United States population in 1978 were compared with projections of longevity gains occurring under a standard single cause-elimination model. Results indicate that equal or greater gains accrue from the prevention or delay of several major degenerative diseases, than from the complete elimination of some single major degenerative diseases. Observed declines in mortality from 1960 to 1978 have resulted in gains in longevity equivalent to the successful elimination of some major degenerative diseases.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1992

Standardized mortality ratios for Israel, 1983-86.

Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs), standardized by age, sex, continent of birth, and religion are presented by cause and region for the period 1983-86. Regional SMRs ranged from 90.6 in Jerusalem to 107.6 in Ramla. These differences may be due to direct and indirect occupational, environmental and socioeconomic effects as well as to possible health service differences. SMRs can be used to indicate regions where further in-depth epidemiological investigations are called for in order to ascertain the reasons for elevated disease specific SMRs. In addition, SMRs could be used as a global measure of all effects in order to adjust any regional budgetary allocation formula, based on capitation.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1991

Perinatal mortality statistics in Harare 1980-1989.

Perinatal and neonatal mortality rates, in the Greater Harare Maternity Unit, which showed a modest decline from 1980 to 1985, have rise dramatically since then. Half of the rise in neonatal mortality rate is due to increased numbers and an increased mortality rate in babies of birth weight less than 1001g. There is also an increase in the numbers of deaths of large babies. There is a strong case for a broad-based on-going enquiry into the reasons for such changes.

Birth Rate↗
PubMed1991

Changing sex ratio of mortality in the Semai Senoi, 1969-1987.

An excess of male over female deaths is characteristic of modern national populations, whereas in some high-mortality societies female mortality exceeds that of males. Among the Semai Senoi, a Malaysian Orang Asli ("aboriginal") population, women experienced higher mortality than males in the decades before 1969. This differential occurred in all age classes older than 15 years so that the sex ratio progressively increased with age. A recent (1987) restudy of the Semai population found that sex-specific differential mortality is much reduced. A comparison of the 1969 and 1987 life tables shows a sharp shift in the sex ratios of mortality for the post-15-year-old age classes (the geometric means of age classes 15-44 were 0.768 in 1969 and 0.997 in 1987) so that male and female expectations of further life at age 15 are now nearly identical. In contrast to the best-known cases of high female mortality (mostly in South Asia), Semai sex differential mortality does not include the childhood ages. The Semai have traditionally been relatively sexually egalitarian, and sex bias in care has not occurred. Analysis of sex-specific causes of death for the pre-1969 population suggests that maternal mortality is the major cause of the excess female deaths. The reduced number of maternal deaths seems largely due to better health care, particularly the availability of hospital services. Interestingly, the reduction in female mortality has occurred simultaneously with increased fertility, and overall mortality has continued at relatively high levels (eO less than 36). Thus, rather than forming a component of a unitary demographic transition, declining sex differences in mortality can be accounted for by a specific factor, better maternal care.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1991

A study of 8 year neonatal deaths (1982-1989) of Toa Payoh Hospital.

A study of 233 neonatal deaths out of 30910 livebirths over an 8 year period in the Toa Payoh Hospital is done. The Hospital has since ceased providing obstetric and neonatal intensive services from April 1990 due to restructuring of hospital care. The Neonatal Mortality Rates (NNMR) from 1982-1989 ranged from 6.52 to 9.55 and there was no significant fall in trend (p = 0.13). One hundred and thirteen (48.5%) neonates who died were below 1500gm (VLBW). Various causes of neonatal deaths were examined and there was a decline in respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) death rates (p less than 0.0002). Deaths due to asphyxia (p greater than 0.05) and infections (p greater than 0.05) have not declined significantly over the same period. It is also observed that less VLBW babies died over this 8 year period and the VLBW mortality rates (p less than 0.02) have declined. However, the congenital malformation mortality has also not declined significantly (p = 0.92) though early study (1972-1981) showed an increasing trend of malformation deaths among total neonatal deaths (p less than 0.02). Improvement in VLBW and RDS management has not contributed to a significant decline in NNMR. It is observed that more VLBW babies were born during this 8 year period (p = 0.01) especially so in the less than 1000 gm group (p = 0.0005) and the survival of VLBW babies has improved (45.5% to 75.8% alive) as a result of advances in neonatal intensive care. The reasons for increase in incidence of VLBW births in the past few years are not known.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Cause of Death↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[Fertility and health in Mexico].

Fertility, health, and family planning are not independent factors, but rather involve a series of biological and social mechanisms in close interaction with one another. The impact that a high fertility rate has on health is reflected mainly in a rise in the rates of maternal and child mortality. Similarly, fertility has a greater negative effect upon the health of groups characterized by high reproductive risk, high parity, short intergenesic intervals, and unwanted pregnancies. On the other hand, family planning -and specifically the use of contraceptive methods-helps to achieve a lowering of the fertility rate and also has a positive effect on maternal-child health. This situation can be observed in the case of Mexico, where fertility rates and tendencies, as well as maternal and child mortality, have been reduced during the past decade.

Family Planning Services↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Maternal mortality in Matlab, Bangladesh: 1976-85.

This paper reports findings from a study of maternal mortality in Matlab, Bangladesh during the 1976-85 period. The study employed a multiple-step procedure to identify maternity-related deaths to all reproductive-aged women within the study area during this period. A total of 387 maternal deaths were identified, resulting in an overall maternal mortality ratio of 5.5 per 1,000 live births. The introduction of a family planning program in half of the Matlab study area led to a moderate but significant reduction in maternal mortality rates, relative to the comparison area. This appears to have been primarily due to a reduction in the overall number of pregnancies in the treatment area, since among women who became pregnant, mortality risks remained high. The results of this study underscore the need for a broad-based service strategy that includes but is not limited solely to family planning, in order to achieve significant reductions in maternal mortality levels in settings such as rural Bangladesh.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1988

On the decomposition of changes in expectation of life and differentials in life expectancy.

The projection of mortality rates requires inter alia close examination of the mortality experience of a population over a long period of time and will usually also involve the analysis of mortality trends by cause of death. In two of the more important recent contributions, techniques were devised for explaining change in life expectancy in terms of mortality changes in particular age groups and by different causes of death. The approaches adopted by the authors differ, and the purpose of this article is to reconcile the two and tie the results in with those obtained by earlier writers. A new method for explaining the change in a life expectancy differential in terms of the observed changes in the mortality differentials and the observed change in overall mortality level is also described.

Adolescent↗