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Cardiac events in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery: shifting the paradigm from noninvasive risk stratification to therapy.

Internists and cardiologists are often asked to estimate the risk for perioperative myocardial infarction or cardiac death in patients being considered for noncardiac surgery. Estimating this risk in an individual patient is difficult and complex. Although noninvasive imaging tests are often used for this purpose, a review of the literature reveals that the positive predictive value of noninvasive imaging tests is uniformly low and that they do not provide information beyond that obtained by assessing simple clinical risk variables. Moreover, no evidence exists that noninvasive imaging tests lead to a therapeutic strategy that reduces the risk for perioperative myocardial infarction or cardiac death. Since the publication of guidelines for preoperative risk stratification by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association in 1996 and the American College of Physicians in 1997, three clinical trials have shown that beta-blocker therapy reduces the risk for perioperative cardiac events. This paper focuses on the relationship between risk stratification and subsequent therapy to minimize or eliminate risk. In short, the paradigm is shifting from predicting which patient is at high risk for having a perioperative cardiac event to minimizing the likelihood of such an event with specific perioperative pharmacologic therapy.

Algorithms↗

Validated risk stratification model accurately predicts low risk in patients with unstable angina.

BACKGROUND: In the mid 1990s, two unstable angina risk prediction models were proposed but neither has been validated on separate population or compared. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to compare patient outcome among high, medium and low risk unstable angina patients defined by the Agency for Health Care Policy and Research (AHCPR) guideline to similar risk groups defined by a validated model from our institution (RUSH). METHODS: Four hundred sixteen patients consecutively admitted to the hospital with unstable angina between January 1, 1995, and December 31, 1997, were prospectively evaluated for risk factors. The presence of major adverse events such as myocardial infarction (MI), death and heart failure was assessed for each patient by chart review. RESULTS: The composite end point of heart failure, MI or death occurred in 3% and 5% of the RUSH and AHCPR low risk categories, respectively, and in 8% and 10% of AHCPR and RUSH high risk categories, respectively. Recurrent ischemic events were best predicted by the RUSH model (high: 24% vs. medium: 12% and low: 10%, p = 0.029), but not by the AHCPR model (high: 14% vs. medium: 13% and low: 9%, p = 0.876). The RUSH model identified five times more low risk patients than the AHCPR model. CONCLUSIONS: Both models identify patients with low and high event rates of MI, death or heart failure. However, the RUSH model allowed for five times more patients to be candidates for outpatient evaluation (low risk) with a similar observed event rate to the AHCPR model; also, the RUSH model more successfully predicted ischemic complications. We conclude that the RUSH model can be used clinically to identify patients for early noninvasive evaluation, thereby improving cost effectiveness of care.

Aged↗

Combining gene expression profiles and clinical parameters for risk stratification in medulloblastomas.

PURPOSE: Stratification of risk in patients with medulloblastoma remains a challenge. As clinical parameters have been proven insufficient for accurately defining disease risk, molecular markers have become the focus of interest. Outcome predictions on the basis of microarray gene expression profiles have been the most accurate to date. We ask in a multivariate model whether clinical parameters enhance survival predictions of gene expression profiles. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In a cohort of 55 young patients (whose medulloblastoma samples have been analyzed previously for gene expression profile), associations between clinical and gene expression variables and survival were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. Available clinical variables included age, stage (ie, the presence of disseminated disease at diagnosis), sex, histologic subtype, treatment, and status. RESULTS: Univariate analysis demonstrated expression profiles to be the only significant clinical prognostic factor (P=.03). In multivariate analysis, gene expression profiles predicted outcome independent of other criteria. Clinical criteria did not significantly contribute additional information for outcome predictions, although an exploratory analysis noted a trend for decreased survival of patients with metastases at diagnosis but favorable gene expression profile. CONCLUSION: Gene expression profiling predicts medulloblastoma outcome independent of clinical variables. These results need to be validated in a larger prospective study.

Adolescent↗

Usefulness of risk stratification for future cardiac events in infarct survivors with severely depressed versus near-normal left ventricular function: results from a prospective long-term follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Although primary preventive therapy with implantable cardioverter defibrillators has recently been shown to be effective in patients with coronary artery disease and left ventricular dysfunction, further identification of patients at particularly high risk for arrhythmic death would improve the cost effectiveness of device therapy. The value of risk stratification in postinfarction patients with versus those without left ventricular dysfunction has not been investigated in detail in infarct survivors treated according to contemporary therapeutic guidelines. METHODS: Patients with acute myocardial infarction underwent coronary angiography including left ventricular angiography in an attempt to restore antegrade flow of the infarct-related artery. Additionally, patients underwent noninvasive autonomic risk stratification by means of heart rate variability (HRV) and baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) measurements prior to hospital discharge. RESULTS: A total of 411 patients were prospectively included in the study. The primary study endpoint of cardiac death and arrhythmic events was significantly more common in patients with LVEF < or = 35% as compared to those with preserved LV function (27% vs 4%; P < 0.0001). In patients with LV dysfunction, HRV and BRS were significant risk predictors on univariate (P < 0.01 for BRS; P = 0.04 for HRV) and multivariate (P = 0.028 for BRS; P = 0.053 for HRV) analyses. In contrast, in patients with preserved LV function, only patency of the infarct artery but not autonomic markers was significantly predictive of cardiac death and arrhythmic events. CONCLUSION: The present study demonstrates that autonomic testing does not yield predictive power in infarct survivors with preserved left ventricular function. Accordingly, cost effectiveness of risk stratification and subsequent preventive therapy may be improved by restricting risk stratification to patients with impaired LV function.

Aged↗

[Risk stratification after myocardial infarct].

In industrialized countries the rate of sudden cardiac death remains unchanged. The most frequently encountered structural heart disease in these patients is coronary artery disease. Despite the era of thrombolytic therapy of acute myocardial infarction patients carry an increased risk of sudden cardiac arrhythmogenic death within a time period of one to two years following the acute event. Therefore, risk stratification post-MI before patient discharge is furthermore mandatory. The spectrum of non-invasive techniques for risk stratification includes the clinical risk profile, measurement of left ventricular global function (LV ejection fraction), the resting ECG (QT dispersion), an ECG stress test (detection and severity of myocardial ischemia), ambulatory ECG monitoring (number and type of ventricular arrhythmias), surface high resolution ECG (detection of ventricular late potentials), measurement of T wave alternans (TWA, alternans ratio), and measurements of the activity and balance of the autonomous nervous system (heart rate variability, baroreflex sensitivity = BRS). Programmed ventricular stimulation (PVS) serves as an invasive risk stratification technique (detection of an arrhythmogenic substrate). The prognostic power of the non-invasive techniques is limited; in general, the prognostic value of a negative test is reasonably high (90 to 100% depending on the test used), whereas the prognostic value of a positive test is rather low (4 to 42% depending on the test used). Combining several non-invasive tests may significantly improve the positive predictive value above 50%, but this goes along with a significant decreases of sensitivity below 50%. Therefore, a combination of several non-invasive tests (detection and exclusion of a large number of low-risk individuals) with the invasive method of PVS (detection of an arrhythmogenic substrate, i.e. a high-risk patient) seems reasonable, as has been convincingly shown by several smaller prognostic studies.

Arrhythmias, Cardiac↗

Risk stratification and prediction of sudden death following myocardial infarction.

Accurate and reliable identification of those survivors of acute myocardial infarction who are at high risk of sudden death remain an important and challenging problem. This review summarises the current state-of-the-art of the risk stratification techniques and lists achievements in this field. The review comments in detail on individual factors used in risk stratification. Residual ischemia may be considered as one of the main triggering factors of post-infarction arrhythmia. Depressed left ventricular ejection fraction indicates deterioration of ventricular function. Electrical instability of the myocardium reflects the potential substrate of arrhythmia. Frequent ventricular ectopic activity provides triggers of ventricular tachycardia and/or fibrillation when acting on a suitable substrate. Impaired autonomic status of the heart may lead to the loss of vagal antiarrhythmic protection. Further, the tests used for risk stratification are discussed. Ventriculography provides estimates of left ventricular ejection fraction. Holter monitoring is used for the assessment of ventricular ectopic activity and heart rate variability. Exercise testing is used to address residual ischemia. Programmed ventricular stimulation and the analysis of signal averaged electrocardiograms estimate electrical instability of the myocardium. Baroreflex sensitivity is a measure of cardiac parasympathetic reflexes. The design and results of different experimental and clinical studies which utilised these tests are also discussed.

Autonomic Nervous System↗

Development and prospective validation of a risk stratification system for patients with syncope in the emergency department: the OESIL risk score.

AIMS: Aim of the present study was the development and the subsequent validation of a simple risk classification system for patients presenting with syncope to the emergency departments. METHODS AND RESULTS: A group of 270 consecutive patients (145 females, mean age 59.5 years) presenting with syncope to the emergency departments of six community hospitals of the Lazio region of Italy was used as a derivation cohort for the development of the risk classification system. Data from the baseline clinical history, physical examination and electrocardiogram were used to identify independent predictors of total mortality within the first 12 months after the initial evaluation. Multivariate analysis allowed the recognition of the following predictors of mortality: (1) age >65 years; (2) cardiovascular disease in clinical history; (3) syncope without prodromes; and (4) abnormal electrocardiogram. The OESIL (Osservatorio Epidemiologico sulla Sincope nel Lazio) score was calculated by the simple arithmetic sum of the number of predictors present in every single patient. Mortality increased significantly as the score increased in the derivation cohort (0% for a score of 0, 0.8% for 1 point; 19.6% for 2 points; 34.7% for 3 points; 57.1% for 4 points; p<0,0001 for trend). A similar pattern of increasing mortality with increasing score was prospectively confirmed in a second validation cohort of 328 consecutive patients (178 females; mean age, 57.5 years). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical and electrocardiographic data available at presentation to the emergency department can be used for the risk stratification of patients with syncope. The OESIL risk score may represent a simple prognostication tool that could be usefully employed for the triage and management of patients with syncope in emergency departments.

Cohort Studies↗

A simple approach to risk stratification in adult heart transplantation.

OBJECTIVE: While there are numerous reports in the literature of risk factors for graft failure after heart transplantation, simple models for risk stratification are lacking. This study describes a simple method for risk stratification in adult heart transplantation that can be applied when the size of a dataset is insufficient for formal regression modelling. METHODS: Multi-centre prospective cohort study. Fourteen risk factors documented in the literature as increasing post transplant graft failure were used to formulate a model. Risk factors included in the model were recipient age >50 years, pre-operative ventilatory support, pre-operative circulatory support, >1 previous sternotomy, pulmonary vascular resistance >2.5 wood units, male with body surface area >2.5 m2, retransplant, ischaemic time >3.5 h, donor age >45 years, donor inotropic support >10 microg/kg per min dopamine, female donor, ratio donor/recipient body surface area <0.7, donor with diabetes and history of donor drug abuse. Four risk groups were defined depending on the number of risk factors present: Low, none; moderate, 1; high, 2 or 3; very high, 4 or more. Graft survival to 30 days was chosen as the primary outcome. The model was tested on 373 adult transplants performed in the UK between April 1995 and December 1996. RESULTS: Twenty eight transplants were low risk, 82 moderate, 201 high and 62 very high. The 30-day survival (70% CI) for the risk groups was low, 97% (93-100), moderate 95% (92-98), high 87% (84-89) and very high 80% (75-83) (P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: This preliminary model enables some stratification of heart transplant procedures according to donor and recipient risk profile. Further work will be directed at refining and validating the model.

Adult↗

C-reactive protein and other emerging blood biomarkers to optimize risk stratification of vulnerable patients.

Several emerging plasma biomarkers may ultimately prove useful in risk stratification and prognosis of cardiovascular disease. The clinical utility of these biomarkers will depend on their ability to provide a reflection of the underlying atherosclerotic burden or activity; the ability to provide reliable, accurate, and cost-effective information; and the ability to predict future events. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) fulfills many, if not all, of these criteria, and blood levels of hs-CRP are now commonly used in clinical practice to improve vascular risk prediction in primary and secondary prevention across all levels of low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C), all levels of the Framingham Risk Score, and all levels of metabolic syndrome. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein may also have clinical relevance as an adjunct to LDL-C for both the targeting and monitoring of statin therapy. Accumulating evidence suggests that several other selected emerging biomarkers may also potentially prove useful in the diagnosis and prognosis of cardiovascular disease. Specifically, data are accumulating on the potential clinical utility of lipoprotein-associated lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2, myeloperoxidase, oxidized LDL, lipoprotein (a), isoprostanes, and small, dense LDL. This review focuses on hs-CRP and these emerging plasma biomarkers, and their potential diagnostic and prognostic utility in cardiovascular disease. Plasma biomarkers that reflect the clinical potential of atherothrombotic disease may allow more precise risk stratification and prognostication in high-risk populations, and perhaps earlier diagnosis and intervention in patients at risk for or with occult cardiovascular disease.

1-Alkyl-2-acetylglycerophosphocholine Esterase↗

Risk-stratification in thoracic aortic surgery: should the EuroSCORE be modified?

OBJECTIVES: Risk-stratification in cardiac surgical procedures is of major interest. Recent studies have shown, that the EuroSCORE is a very good and reliable risk-stratification score in CABG and in valve surgery. The aim of the study was to evaluate the EuroSCORE in patients undergoing surgery on the thoracic aorta. METHODS: Three hundred and sixty-seven consecutive patients underwent surgery of the thoracic aorta and were scored, according to the additive and logistic EuroSCORE algorithm. We compared correlation of predicted and observed mortality and evaluated a modification of the EuroSCORE in order to improve the scoring system. Score validity was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). RESULTS: Overall hospital mortality was 10.1%. Additive EuroSCORE predicted mortality was 2.3% for 3-6% risk, 12.9% for 7-8% risk, 18.4% for 9-12% risk and 27.3% for a risk >12%. The modified score predicted mortality was 1% for 3-6% risk, 8.2% for 7-8% risk, 12.1% for 9-14% risk, 18.6% for 15-24% risk and 28.6% for a risk >24%. Area under the ROC-curve was 0.68 for the EuroScore and 0.91 in the modified score, 0.72 and 0.86 in the logistic model. CONCLUSIONS: The modified score, taking into account aortic dissection (6 points) and preoperative malperfusion (12 points) significantly improves the predictive value of the EuroSCORE in patients undergoing thoracic aortic surgery.

Acute Disease↗

Aortic stenosis with severe left ventricular dysfunction and low transvalvular pressure gradients: risk stratification by low-dose dobutamine echocardiography.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to assess risk stratification by using dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE) in patients with aortic stenosis (AS) and severe left ventricular (LV) dysfunction. BACKGROUND: Few data are available on risk stratification for valve replacement in patients with AS, LV dysfunction and low transvalvular gradients. METHODS: Low-dose DSE was performed in 45 patients (16 women and 29 men; median [quartile range] age in years: 75 [69 to 79]; left ventricular ejection fraction: 0.29 [0.23 to 0.32]; aortic valve area [cm2]: 0.7 [0.5 to 0.8]; mean transaortic gradient [mm Hg]: 26 [21 to 33]). Patients were classified into two groups: group I (n = 32, LV contractile reserve on DSE) and group II (n = 13, no contractile reserve). Valve replacement was performed in 24 and 6 patients in groups I and II, respectively. RESULTS: Perioperative mortality was 8% in group I and 50% in group II (p = 0.014). Survival at five years after the operation was 88% in group I. Compared with medical therapy, valve surgery was associated with better long-term survival in group I (hazard ratio for death [HR-D] 0.13, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.002 to 0.49) and reduced survival in group II (HR-D 19.6, 95% CI 2.7 to 142). The effect of valve surgery on survival remained significant in both groups after adjustment for age, diabetes, respiratory disease and hypertension. Medical therapy had the same effect in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AS, LV dysfunction and low transvalvular gradients, contractile reserve on DSE is associated with a low operative risk and good long-term prognosis after valve surgery. In contrast, operative mortality remains high in the absence of contractile reserve.

Aged↗

Effect of risk stratification on cost-effectiveness of the implantable cardioverter defibrillator.

BACKGROUND: Implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) effectively prevent sudden cardiac death, but selection of appropriate patients for implantation is complex. We evaluated whether risk stratification based on risk of sudden cardiac death alone was sufficient to predict the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the ICD. METHODS: We developed a Markov model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of ICD implantation compared with empiric amiodarone treatment. The model incorporated mortality rates from sudden and nonsudden cardiac death, noncardiac death and costs for each treatment strategy. We based our model inputs on data from randomized clinical trials, registries, and meta-analyses. We assumed that the ICD reduced total mortality rates by 25%, relative to use of amiodarone. RESULTS: The relationship between cost-effectiveness of the ICD and the total annual cardiac mortality rate is U-shaped; cost-effectiveness becomes unfavorable at both low and high total cardiac mortality rates. If the annual total cardiac mortality rate is 12%, the cost-effectiveness of the ICD varies from $36,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained when the ratio of sudden cardiac death to nonsudden cardiac death is 4 to $116,000 per QALY gained when the ratio is 0.25. CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness of ICD use relative to amiodarone depends on total cardiac mortality rates as well as the ratio of sudden to nonsudden cardiac death. Studies of candidate diagnostic tests for risk stratification should distinguish patients who die suddenly from those who die nonsuddenly, not just patients who die suddenly from those who live.

Amiodarone↗

Dipyridamole stress echocardiography and exercise testing for risk stratification after uncomplicated myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Risk stratification for subsequent cardiac events after an acute infarction can be obtained by exercise testing or dipyridamole stress echocardiography. It remains to be determined whether these modalities are equivalent and provide incremental information on top of clinical evaluation. The aim of our study was to compare the prognostic information obtained early after an acute uncomplicated myocardial infarction of high dose dipyridamole coupled with echocardiography (stress echo) or maximal symptom-limited exercise testing. METHODS AND RESULTS: Ninety patients underwent dipyridamole stress echo and exercise testing at a mean +/- SD of 9 +/- 4 days after admission for acute uncomplicated first myocardial infarction. All patients were prospectively followed for 22 +/- 16 months. There were 9 hard events (3 cardiac deaths and 6 acute myocardial infarctions) and 12 soft events due to post MI angina (6 angioplasty and 6 bypass surgery procedures). Univariate predictor of hard events was rest-stress wall motion score index variation (p = 0.009); univariate predictors of all events (hard + soft) were: positive exercise testing (p = 0.001), positive stress echo (p = 0.001), rest-stress wall motion score index variation (p = 0.002), extent of ischemia at echo (p = 0.008). Multivariate analysis by Cox selected a non-Q wave infarction and rest-stress wall motion score index variation as predictors of death or reinfarction (overall chi-square for the model 12.2, p = 0.0022). CONCLUSIONS: Stress echo is superior to ergometric variables for predicting events after uncomplicated myocardial infarction.

Aged↗

Risk Stratification in Patients with Unstable Angina and Non-ST-elevation Myocardial Infarction.

Risk stratification in acute coronary syndromes is important both for prognosis and for treatment. Consistently, using any of a variety of clinical predictors of risk, patients at highest risk for poor outcomes derive the greatest benefit from aggressive therapy with early coronary angiography, glycoprotein IIb/IIIa antagonists, or low molecular weight heparins. By contrast, patients at low risk may be managed conservatively without long-term impact on their risk of death or myocardial infarction. Several clinical and laboratory parameters have been identified as independent, powerful predictors of poor outcome, helping to distinguish high-risk from low-risk patients. Although not a substitute for astute clinical judgment, risk prediction scores may help clinicians to synthesize the relevant clinical data at presentation into an overall assessment of risk, allowing for cost-effective utilization of therapies that add significant expense and morbidity. With the ever-expanding range of pharmacologic and interventional therapies that impact the treatment of patients with unstable angina and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), risk stratification will become increasingly important in targeting therapies to those who are likely to achieve the most benefit. In this review, we first consider the identifiable components of risk in patients presenting with unstable angina or NSTEMI and then evaluate the emerging information regarding differential response to treatment based on the presence of these risk factors.

Journal Article↗

Using an outcomes-based approach to identify candidates for risk stratification after exercise treadmill testing.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a hierarchical approach to cardiac risk stratification after treadmill testing. PATIENTS: Clinical and treadmill test data were used to identify a patient population that may be candidates for further risk stratification with stress tomographic myocardial perfusion imaging. A prospective series of 3, 620 medically treated patients (42% female, mean age 63 years) with a 2.5% mortality was identified (follow-up 2.5 +/- SD 1.5 years). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate a patient's likelihood of cardiac death. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to estimate time to cardiac death by nuclear test results. Annual rates of cardiac death were 0. 4% (n = 921), 1% (n = 2,498), and 1% (n = 201) for patients with low, intermediate, and high Duke treadmill scores (DTS). For patients with an intermediate DTS, multivariate estimators of cardiac death included the number of ischemic vascular territories (relative risk per defect 1.4, p =.01), the number of infarcted vascular territories (relative risk per defect 2.4, p =.00001), and the DTS (relative risk per unit 0.97, p =.00001), following adjustment for a patient's pretest risk of coronary disease. For patients with an intermediate DTS, the presence of no, one or two, and three vascular territories with defects was associated with annual rates of cardiac death of 0.5%, 1.4%, and 2.5%, respectively (p <.0001). Kaplan-Meier survival curves exhibited a statistically worsening survival for patients with defects by 1 year after treadmill exercise. CONCLUSIONS: For symptomatic patients with an intermediate treadmill test score, the exercise myocardial perfusion scan may be used to stratify their risk of cardiac death over 3 years of follow-up. Patient management may be efficiently guided by further outcome assessment, with an exercise nuclear scan for patients whose treadmill test score is intermediate.

Aged↗

Risk stratification for cardiac valve replacement. National Cardiac Surgery Database. Database Committee of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons.

BACKGROUND: The Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Database Committee is committed to risk stratification and assessment as integral elements in the practice of cardiac operations. The National Cardiac Surgery Database was created to analyze data from subscribing institutions across the country. We analyzed the database for valve replacement procedures with and without coronary artery bypass grafting to determine trends in risk stratification. METHODS: The database contains complete records of 86,580 patients who had valve replacement procedures at the participating institutions between 1986 and 1995, inclusive. The 1995 harvest of data was conducted in late 1996 and available for evaluation in 1997. These records were used to conduct an in-depth analysis of risk factors associated with valve replacement and to provide prediction of operative death by using regression analysis. Regression models were made for six subgroups. RESULTS: Adverse patient risk factors, including diabetes, hypertension and reoperation, but not ventricular function, increased over time. There were trends with regard to increasing age of the various population subsets. The types of prostheses used remained similar over time, with more mechanical prostheses than bioprostheses used for both aortic and mitral valve replacement. There was a trend toward increased use of bioprostheses in aortic replacements and decreased use in mitral replacements between 1991 and 1995 than between 1986 and 1990. The mortality rate was determined by patient subset for primary operation and reoperation and by urgency status. The modeling showed that the predicted and observed mortality correlated for all age groups and within patient subsets. CONCLUSIONS: Risk modeling is a valuable tool for predicting the probability of operative death in any individual patient. This large, multiinstitutional database is capable of determining modern operative risk and should provide standards for acceptable care. The study illustrates the importance of risk stratification for early death both for the patient and the surgeon.

Adult↗

Comparison of various score systems for risk stratification in heart surgery.

UNLABELLED: Its is important to predict patients having the highest risk of surgery. Risk stratification systems need to be tested in different surgical populations and whether they are or not appropriate to our population remains unknown. OBJECTIVE: To test various risk stratification systems for our region population having cardiac surgery in our institution during 2002. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between January 1, 2002 and November 1, 2002, all adult patients undergoing heart surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass in our institution were included in the study and scored using the EuroSCORE, Parsonnet, Ontario, and QMMI. Study was completed by 444 patients. We analyzed score systems predicting characteristics by assessing receiver operating characteristics (ROC). RESULTS: Observed mortality was 25 (5.63%). Mean score for alive and dead patients for EuroSCORE was -7.8+/-3.1 and 10.8+/-3.2, p<0.005; Parsonnet - 14.2+/-11 and 32.5+/-13.8, p<0.0005; Ontario - 3.6+/-2.7 and 6.4+/-3.5, p<0.005; QMMI score - 10.4+/-6.9 and 20.3+/-8.7, p<0.0001. ROC curve analysis for mortality showed best predicting characteristics for the Parsonnet and QMMI, best accuracy for QMMI score - 84.4 %. CONCLUSIONS: Most (71.2%) of our investigated patients having heart surgery are at high-risk group for death. All investigated score systems have significance in mortality prediction. Among the investigated score systems, the QMMI score and Ontario score systems yielded the highest predictive value in our patient population. Highest accuracy of prediction patient population showed QMMI score. Our study highlighted over prediction of mortality for Parsonnet score and EuroSCORE systems for our population.

Adult↗

Association of the heart rate turbulence with classic risk stratification parameters in postmyocardial infarction patients.

The heart rate turbulence (HRT) parameters were introduced for risk stratification of ventricular arrhythmias in postmyocardial infarction patients. However, the relationship of these parameters with other risk stratificators such as heart rate variability (HRV), repolarization parameters or left ventricular function is unknown. Furthermore, the influence of age and medication on HRT remains to be evaluated. Holter ECG's of 509 post-MI patients (1-10 years after MI) were screened for single ventricular extrasystole. In 196 patients the parameters' turbulence onset (TO) and turbulence slope (TS) could be computed. A pathological TO (>0%) and TS (<2.5 ms) was found in 58 and 54 patients, respectively. HRT was not related to gender, but was correlated with age (TS: r = 0.209, P < 0.01). No relationship was observed between QT interval, QTc interval or QT dispersion and HRT parameters. Individuals with a pathological HRT showed decreased HRV values (e.g., PNN50: 2.8 vs. 11.5; P < 0.001). Of all MI patients with systolic left ventricular dysfunction (EF < 45%, n = 46), 18 showed a pathological TO (39%) compared to 34 out of 142 patients (24%) with an EF > 45%. In contrast, the percentage of pathological HRT was not different between patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (16 out of 59, 27%) compared to patients without LVH (38 out of 133, 28%). The HRT was pathological in 14 out of 24 patients with diabetes mellitus (58%) compared to 40 out of 172 (23%) normoglycemic patients (TO: -0.6 +/- 3.1 vs. -2.5 +/- 5.5, P < 0.02). HRT was similar in patients with ss-blockers (n = 96) as in patients without ss-blockers (n = 100). In stable post-MI patients, HRT is influenced by age and left ventricular function and correlates with heart rate variability. Therapy with ss-blockers has no influence on HRT, while diabetic patients may have an increased likelihood of pathological HRT.

Age Distribution↗