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At least 109 records · Page 6Linked to original sources
PubMed2001

Predictive spatial modelling of alternative control strategies for the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain, 2001.

A spatial simulation model of foot-and-mouth disease was used in March and early April 2001 to evaluate alternative control policies for the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain. Control policies were those in operation from March 20, 2001, and comprised a ban on all animal movements from February 23, 2001, and a stamping-out policy. Each simulation commenced with the known population of infected farms on April 10, 2001, and ran for 200 days. For the control policy which best approximated that actually implemented from late March, the model predicted an epidemic of approximately 1800 to 1900 affected farms, and estimated that the epidemic would be eradicated between July and October 2001, with a low probability of continuing beyond October 2001. This policy included the slaughter-out of infected farms within 24 hours, slaughter of about 1.3 of the surrounding farms per infected farm within a further 48 hours, and minimal interfarm movements of susceptible animals. Delays in the slaughter of animals on infected farms beyond 24 hours after diagnosis slightly increased the epidemic size, and failure to achieve pre-emptive slaughter on an adequate number of at-risk farms substantially increased the expected size of the epidemic. Vaccination of up to three of the most outbreak-dense areas carried out in conjunction with the adopted control policy reduced the predicted size of the epidemic by less than 100 farms. Vaccination of buffer zones (designed to apply available vaccine and manpower as effectively as possible) carried out in place of the adopted control policy allowed the disease to spread out of control, producing an epidemic involving over 6000 farms by October 2001, with no prospect of immediate eradication.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Model based hydropower gate operation for mitigation of CSO impacts by means of river base flow increase.

In river stretches being subjected to flow regulation, usually for the purpose of energy production (e.g. Hydropower) or flood protection (river barrage), a special measure can be taken against the effect of combined sewer overflows (CSOs). The basic idea is the temporal increase of the river base flow (during storm weather) as an in-stream measure for mitigation of CSO spilling. The focus is the mitigation of the negative effect of acute pollution of substances. The measure developed can be seen as an application of the classic real time control (RTC) concept onto the river system. Upstream gate operation is to be based on real time monitoring and forecasting of precipitation. The main objective is the development of a model based predictive control system for the gate operation, by modelling of the overall wastewater system (incl. the receiving water). The main emphasis is put on the operational strategy and the appropriate short-term forecast of spilling events. The potential of the measure is tested for the application of the operational strategy and its ecological and economic feasibility. The implementation of such an in-stream measure into the hydropower's operational scheme is unique. Advantages are (a) the additional in-stream dilution of acute pollutants entering the receiving water and (b) the resulting minimization of the required CSO storage volume.

Conservation of Natural Resources↗
PubMed2005

An investigation into the inputs controlling predictions from a diffuse phosphorus loss model for the UK; the Phosphorus Indicators Tool (PIT).

A simple catchment scale model simulating diffuse phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural land to water, the Phosphorus Indicators Tool (PIT), has been developed. Previous research has shown that this model worked well in simulating the average annual P lost from two catchments: Windermere and Windrush, but it was not known which drivers in the model had the greatest control on predicted P delivery to water from agricultural land. In order to simulate the P export from each catchment source via each hydrological pathway specified individually, 108 coefficients are used in the model code. A univariate sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate which coefficient exerted the greatest control on the model output. Results from the univariate analysis suggest that the model is sensitive to a number of coefficients, but importantly, not all of the coefficients that were varied in the sensitivity analysis, altered the model output. The PIT model has been calibrated by optimizing results from the univariate analysis against observed data in the Windermere catchment. The simulated results from model calibration fit the observed data well, at the 95% level. This paper describes the methodology developed for the univariate analysis and evaluates the model calibration procedure against observed data from the Windermere catchment.

Agriculture↗
PubMed2004

The effect of a model-based predictive display on the control of end-tidal sevoflurane concentrations during low-flow anesthesia.

We have shown that a multicompartment model accurately predicts end-tidal (ET) sevoflurane (sevo) and isoflurane concentrations. The model has been adapted to use real-time fresh gas flow and vaporizer settings to display a 10-min prediction of ET sevo concentrations. In this study, we evaluated the effect of the predictive display on the speed and accuracy of changes in ET sevo by the anesthesiologist. Fifteen patients were studied in whom sevo-based anesthesia was expected to last more than 2 h. Four step changes of target ET concentration (+0.5, +1.0, -1.0, and -0.5 vol%) were made either unaided or with the prediction display. Fresh gas flow was 1 L/min. Response time, maximum overshoot, and stability in the 5 min after the target was achieved were compared by using two-tailed paired Student's t-tests. Changes were made on average 1.5-2.3 times faster with the predictive display than without it. These differences were statistically significant (P < 0.05) for the +0.5, +1.0, and -0.5 vol% step changes but not for the -1.0 vol% change. There were no differences in the degree of overshoot or stability. These differences are comparable to those seen with an automatic feedback control system. This system may simplify the administration of volatile anesthesia and the use of low-flow anesthesia.

Adult↗
PubMed2006

Cell orientation by a microgrooved substrate can be predicted by automatic control theory.

Cells have the ability to measure and respond to extracellular signals like chemical molecules and topographical surface features by changing their orientation. Here, we examined the orientation of cultured human melanocytes exposed to grooved topographies. To predict the cells' orientation response, we describe the cell behavior with an automatic controller model. The predicted dependence of the cell response to height and spatial frequency of the grooves is obtained by considering the symmetry of the system (cell + substrate). One basic result is that the automatic controller responds to the square of the product of groove height and spatial frequency or to the aspect ratio for symmetric grooves. This theoretical prediction was verified by the experiments, in which melanocytes were exposed to microfabricated poly(dimethylsiloxane) substrates having parallel rectangular grooves of heights (h) between 25 and 200 nm and spatial frequencies (L) between 100 and 500 mm(-1). In addition, the model of the cellular automatic controller is extended to include the case of different guiding signals acting simultaneously.

Biocompatible Materials↗
PubMed1985

A mathematical model to predict the optimal control mode for a pusher-plate total artificial heart (TAH).

Table I lists the physiological criteria for ranking each control mode (hemodynamic conditions assumed are listed in Figure 4). For each criteria, each mode was given a ranking of 0 to 3, with 3 the best. At the bottom of the table is the total of all criteria grades. The ranking from best to worst mode is in order: IND, LMA/LMS, Low FR/High FR, RMA/RMS. A discussion of Table I follows: FR is a reliable control mode and has been used extensively clinically, including the recent TAH human implants. The advantage of this mode is its simplicity: if the venous return is below pump capacity, then all incoming blood can be pumped out without any sophisticated controller. However, when the flow demand exceeds the pump capacity, HR must be increased. The ideal situation would be to set FR at one HR and %S, and leave these settings over the life of the recipient. However, a high HR like this would result in relatively high atrial pressures and low flow rates with respect to IND (as shown theoretically, in vitro, and in vivo). Although the patient would have a high maximum COR, the daily COR would be low, resulting in a relatively high AVO2 difference. Finally, FR lacks afterload sensitivity. RMA and RMS received the lowest grade of all modes. Because of the L-L shunt, the stroke length of these modes are smallest, and thus the CO curves and FPS are poorer than any other mode.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Blood Pressure↗
PubMed1999

Use of time-temperature integrators and predictive modelling for shelf life control of chilled fish under dynamic storage conditions.

A systematic approach for fish shelf life modelling and Time Temperature Integrator (TTI) selection in order to plan and apply an effective quality monitoring scheme for the fish chill chain was developed. The temperature behaviour of the natural microflora of the Mediterranean fish boque (Boops boops) was studied and growth of the specific spoilage bacteria Pseudomonas spp. and Shewanella putrefaciens was modelled and correlated to organoleptic shelf life. Arrhenius and square root functions were used to model temperature dependence of maximum growth rates. Bacterial growth and shelf life models were validated under dynamic storage conditions with independent variable temperature experiments. The response of several TTIs from similar storage experiments was also modelled. The reliability of the TTI monitoring was cumulatively expressed by the error in the TTI derived effective temperature (Teff) for different variable temperature distributions. Teff was directly translated to shelf life of the fish.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Minimum-time thermal dose control of thermal therapies.

The problem of controlling noninvasive thermal therapies is formulated as the problem of directly controlling thermal dose of the target. To limit the damage to the surrounding normal tissue, the constraints on the peak allowable temperatures in the selected spacial locations are imposed. The developed controller has a cascade structure with a linear, constrained, model predictive temperature controller in the secondary loop. The temperature controller manipulates the intensity of the ultrasound transducer with saturation constraints, which noninvasively heats the spatially distributed target. The main nonlinear thermal dose controller dynamically generates the reference temperature trajectories for the temperature controller. The thermal dose controller is designed to force the treatment progression at either the actuation or temperature constraints, which is required to minimize the treatment time. The developed controller is applicable to high and low-intensity treatments, such as thermal ablation and thermoradiotherapy. The developed approach is tested using computer simulations for a one-dimensional model of a tumor with constraints on the maximum allowable temperature in the normal tissue and a constrained power output of the ultrasound transducer. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach is effective at delivering the desired thermal dose in a near minimum time without violating constraints on the maximum allowable temperature in healthy tissue, despite significant plant-model mismatch introduced during numerical simulation. The results of in vitro and in vivo validation are reported elsewhere.

Algorithms↗
PubMed2005

Computational modeling of a dynamic knee simulator for reproduction of knee loading.

As a first step towards reproducing desired three-dimensional joint loading and motion on a dynamic knee simulator, the goal of this study was to develop and verify a three-dimensional computational model that generated control profiles for the simulator using desired knee loading and motion as model inputs. The developed model was verified by predicting tibio-femoral loading on an instrumented analog knee for given actuator forces and the ability to generate simulator control profiles was demonstrated using a three-dimensional walking profile. The model predicted axial tibia loading for a sagittal-plane dual-limb squat within 1% of measured peak loading. Adding out-of-sagittal-plane forces decreased the accuracy of load prediction. The model generated control profiles to the simulator that produced axial tibia loading within 16% of desired for walking. Discrepancies in predicted and measured quadriceps forces influenced the accuracy of the generated control profiles. Future work will replace the analog knee in both the model and machine with a prosthetic knee.

Biomimetics↗
PubMed2006

Physician control of needle and syringe during aspiration-injection procedures with the new reciprocating syringe.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate physician control of needle and syringe during aspiration-injection syringe procedures by comparing the new reciprocating procedure syringe to a traditional conventional syringe. METHODS: Twenty-six physicians were tested for their individual ability to control the reciprocating and conventional syringes in typical aspiration-injection procedures using a novel quantitative needle-based displacement procedure model. Subsequently, the physicians performed 48 clinical aspiration-injection (arthrocentesis) procedures on 32 subjects randomized to the reciprocating or conventional syringes. Clinical outcomes included procedure time, patient pain, and operator satisfaction. Multivariate modeling methods were used to determine the experimental variables in the syringe control model most predictive of clinical outcome measures. RESULTS: In the model system, the reciprocating syringe significantly improved physician control of the syringe and needle, with a 66% reduction in unintended forward penetration (p < 0.001) and a 68% reduction in unintended retraction (p < 0.001). In clinical arthrocentesis, improvements were also noted: 30% reduction in procedure time (p < 0.03), 57% reduction in patient pain (p < 0.001), and a 79% increase in physician satisfaction (p < 0.001). The variables in the experimental system--unintended forward penetration, unintended retraction, and operator satisfaction--independently predicted the outcomes of procedure time, patient pain, and physician satisfaction in the clinical study (p < or = 0.001). CONCLUSION: The reciprocating syringe reduces procedure time and patient pain and improves operator satisfaction with the procedure syringe. The reciprocating syringe improves physician performance in both the validated quantitative needle-based displacement model and in real aspiration-injection syringe procedures, including arthrocentesis.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

Controlling Echinococcus multilocularis-ecological implications of field trials.

Two field trials to reduce the prevalence of Echinococcus multilocularis in foxes have been conducted in recent years. Although both trials reduced prevalence considerably, they failed to eradicate the parasite in the study region. Following the control trial in northern Germany, prevalence recovered unexpectedly and rapidly, reaching pre-control levels five quarters (15 months) after the end of control. To understand the internal dynamics of the parasite-host system's reaction to control, we developed a spatially explicit simulation model, Echi. The simulation model incorporates the information available concerning fox tapeworm population dynamics. Using epidemiological parameters to adjust pre-control prevalence, the model predicts the temporal evolution of the prevalence of E. multilocularis in controlled foxes without departing from the range of uncertainty of the field data. However, the model does not predict the rapid pre-control recovery observed in the field trial. The deviation of the model's prediction from field data indicates the involvement of processes not yet taken into account. We modified the model step by step to mimic processes with the potential to cause the rapid post-control recovery of the prevalence of E. multilocularis in foxes. Neither the longevity of tapeworm eggs nor the migratory behaviour of foxes showed any influence on the post-control reaction of the parasite-host system. However, landscape structures leading to a heterogeneous distribution of infected foxes have the potential to alter the system's reaction to control. If infected foxes are concentrated in multiple clusters in the landscape, the model prediction tallied with the range of uncertainty of the field data. Such spatial distribution of infected foxes may be caused by differential abiotic conditions influencing the survival of tapeworm eggs. The model was found to comply best with field data if the foxes acquire partial immunity by being exposed to the fox tapeworm. Both hypotheses explaining the rapid post-control recovery of the prevalence of E. multilocularis observed in the fox population were supported by field data. Both hypotheses have far-reaching consequences for future control trials. The spatial aggregation of infected foxes would enable control efforts to be concentrated on these highly infected areas. However, the acquisition of immunity acts as a buffer to control, necessitating intensified control measures.

Animals↗
PubMed1998

Effects of sleep deprivation and user interface on complex performance: a multilevel analysis of compensatory control.

This study was carried out to test the compensatory control model, which predicts performance maintenance under stress at the expense of effort and increased selectivity. It examined the effects of sleep deprivation on performance in an automated process control task based on a simplified life support system with two types of operator control panel interface: machine centered (M-C), in which access to the system was scheduled by the computer, and human-centered (H-C), in which access was ad-lib. The task environment also permitted the analysis of changes in strategy and in subsidiary activities (alarm reaction time, prospective memory). In a 2 x 2 repeated-measures design, 16 participants carried out the task with each interface after both normal sleep and one night of sleep deprivation (SD). No effects of SD were observed on primary task performance. As predicted, SD effects were confined to strategy changes and subsidiary task impairment and occurred only under the (low control) M-C interface. Subjective effort was increased under SD, with greater increases of effort associated with high levels of performance protection. The findings provide strong evidence in favor of the compensatory control model and argue for the use of complex, multilevel tasks in the analysis of performance under stress. Actual or potential applications include the development of more sensitive performance-testing systems based on multilevel analysis of decrement, and the design of interfaces for shift work and other suboptimal work conditions.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

[Mathematical model in prediction and evaluation of the effects on control measures for schistosomiasis].

OBJECTIVE: To carry out a theoretical research on the rule that a mathematical model may play on predicting and evaluating the control effect of schistosomiasis japonica. METHODS: Earbour's two-host model was used to predict and evaluate the effect of different control measures by computer simulation. Pilot samples in two villages of Shanghai suburb in 1950s were applied for the analysis. RESULTS: When the prevalence was high, synchronous chemotherapy for human and cattle populations quickly reduced the indices of the infection. Mollusciciding provided positive impact on the effect of chemotherapy. Added with the environmental measures for snail control, the basic reproductive rate (BRR) and equilibrium prevalence in human and bovines were sustainably reduced and even reached an interruption of transmission. The effect of chemotherapy could be consolidated by the anti-fecundity vaccine for bovines. Satisfied control effect could also be obtained by chemotherapy in human and bovines combined with behaviour intervention for human and vaccination for bovines without snail control. In areas with lower levels of transmission velocity, BRR and prevalence, the effect of various interventions was better than that obtained in areas with higher levels of the above three infection indices, and the disease control could be easier. Conclusion The Barbour's mathematical model can be used to roughly predict and evaluate the effects of schistosomiasis control measures.

Animals↗
PubMed2001

Fitting tumor control probability models to biopsy outcome after three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy of prostate cancer: pitfalls in deducing radiobiologic parameters for tumors from clinical data.

PURPOSE: The goal of tumor control probability (TCP) models is to predict local control for inhomogeneous dose distributions. All existing fits of TCP models to clinical data have utilized summaries of dose distributions (e.g., prescription dose). Ideally, model fits should be based on dose distributions in the tumor, but usually only dose-volume histograms (DVH) of the planning target volume (PTV) are available. We fit TCP models to biopsy outcome after three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy of prostate cancer using either a dose distribution summary or the full DVH in the PTV. We discuss differences in the radiobiologic parameters and dose-response curves and demonstrate pitfalls in interpreting the results. METHODS AND MATERIAL: Two mechanistic TCP models were fit with a maximum likelihood technique to biopsy outcome from 103 prostate patients treated at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center. Fits were performed separately for different patient subgroups defined by tumor-related prognostic factors. Fits were based both on full DVHs, denoted TCP(DVH(calc)), and, alternatively, assuming a homogeneous PTV dose given by the mean dose (Dmean) of each DVH, denoted TCP(Dmean(calc)). Dose distributions for these patients were very homogeneous with any cold spots located on the periphery of the PTV. These cold spots were uncorrelated with biopsy outcome, likely because the low-dose regions may not contain tumor cells. Therefore, fits of TCP models that are potentially sensitive to cold spots (e.g., TCP(DVH(calc))) likely give biologic parameters that diminish this sensitivity. In light of this, we examined differences in fitted clonogenic cell number, N(C), or density, rho(C), surviving fraction after 2 Gy, SF(2), or radiosensitivity, alpha, and their standard deviations in the population, sigma(SF(2)) and sigma(alpha), resulting from fits based on TCP(DVH(calc)) and TCP(Dmean(calc)). Dose-response curves for homogeneous irradiation (characterized by TCD(50), the dose for a TCP of 50%) and differences in TCP predictions calculated from the DVH using alternatively derived parameters were evaluated. RESULTS: Fits of TCP(Dmean(calc)) are better (i.e., have larger likelihood) than fits of TCP(DVH(calc)). For TCP(Dmean(calc)) fits, matching values of SF(2) and sigma(SF(2)) (or alpha and sigma(alpha)) exist for all N(C) (rho(C)) above a threshold that give fits of equal quality, with no maximum in likelihood. In contrast, TCP(DVH(calc)) fits have maximum likelihood for high SF(2) (low alpha) values that minimize effects of cold spots. Consequently, small N(C) (rho(C)) values are obtained to match the observed control rate. For example, for patients in low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, optimum values of SF(2) and N(C) are 0.771 and 3.3 x 10(3), 0.736 and 2.2 x 10(4), and 0.776 and 1.0 x 10(4), respectively. The TCD(50) of dose-response curves for intermediate-risk patients is 2.6 Gy lower using TCP(DVH(calc)) parameters (TCD(50) = 67.8 Gy) than for TCP(Dmean(calc)) parameters (TCD(50) = 70.4 Gy). TCP predictions calculated from the DVH using risk group-dependent TCP(Dmean(calc)) parameters are up to 53% lower than corresponding calculations with TCP(DVH(calc)) parameters. CONCLUSION: For our data, TCP parameters derived from DVHs likely do not reflect true radiobiologic parameters in the tumor, but are a consequence of the reduced importance of low-dose regions at the periphery of the PTV. Deriving radiobiologic parameters from TCP(Dmean(calc)) fits is not possible unless one parameter is already known. TCP predictions using TCP(DVH(calc)) and TCP(Dmean(calc)) parameters may differ substantially, requiring consistency in the derivation and application of model parameters. The proper derivation of radiobiologic parameters from clinical data requires both substantial dose inhomogeneities and understanding of how these coincide with tumor location.

Adenocarcinoma↗
PubMed2004

Closing the loop: the adicol experience.

The objective of the project Advanced Insulin Infusion using a Control Loop (ADICOL) was to develop a treatment system that continuously measures and controls the glucose concentration in subjects with type 1 diabetes. The modular concept of the ADICOL's extracorporeal artificial pancreas consisted of a minimally invasive subcutaneous glucose system, a handheld PocketPC computer, and an insulin pump (D-Tron, Disetronic, Burgdorf, Switzerland) delivering subcutaneously insulin lispro. The present paper describes a subset of ADICOL activities focusing on the development of a glucose controller for semi-closed-loop control, an in silico testing environment, clinical testing, and system integration. An incremental approach was adopted to evaluate experimentally a model predictive glucose controller. A feasibility study was followed by efficacy studies of increasing complexity. The ADICOL project demonstrated feasibility of a semi-closed-loop glucose control during fasting and fed conditions with a wearable, modular extracorporeal artificial pancreas.

Blood Glucose↗
PubMed1995

Contrast gain control: a bilinear model for chromatic selectivity.

We report the results of psychophysical experiments on color contrast induction. In earlier work [Vision Res. 34, 3111 (1994)], we showed that modulating the spatial contrast of an annulus in time induces an apparent modulation of the contrast of a central disk, at isoluminance. Here we vary the chromatic properties of disk and annulus systematically in a study of the interactions among the luminance and the color-opponent channels. Results show that induced contrast depends linearly on both disk and annulus contrast, at low and moderate contrast levels. This dependence leads us to propose a bilinear model for color contrast gain control. The model predicts the magnitude and the chromatic properties of induced contrast. In agreement with experimental results, the model displays chromatic selectivity in contrast gain control and a negligible effect of contrast modulation at isoluminance on the appearance of achromatic contrast. We show that the bilinear model for chromatic selectivity may be realized as a feed-forward multiplicative gain control. Data collected at high contrast levels are fit by embellishing the model with saturating nonlinearities in the contrast gain control of each color channel.

Adaptation, Ocular↗
PubMed2004

The dynamics of Wuchereria bancrofti infection: a model-based analysis of longitudinal data from Pondicherry, India.

This paper presents a model-based analysis of longitudinal data describing the impact of integrated vector management on the intensity of Wuchereria bancrofti infection in Pondicherry, India. The aims of this analysis were (1) to gain insight into the dynamics of infection, with emphasis on the possible role of immunity, and (2) to develop a model that can be used to predict the effects of control. Using the LYMFASIM computer simulation program, two models with different types of immunity (anti-L3 larvae or anti-adult worm fecundity) were compared with a model without immunity. Parameters were estimated by fitting the models to data from 5071 individuals with microfilaria-density measurement before and after cessation of a 5-year vector management programme. A good fit, in particular of the convex shape of the age-prevalence curve, required inclusion of anti-L3 or anti-fecundity immunity in the model. An individual's immune-responsiveness was found to halve in approximately 10 years after cessation of boosting. Explanation of the large variation in Mf-density required considerable variation between individuals in exposure and immune responsiveness. The mean life-span of the parasite was estimated at about 10 years. For the post-control period, the models predict a further decline in Mf prevalence, which agrees well with observations made 3 and 6 years after cessation of the integrated vector management programme.

Adolescent↗