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Patterns of neuropsychological deficits that discriminate schizophrenic individuals from siblings and control subjects.

Previous research on persons with schizophrenia and their relatives suggests two independent etiologic factors may combine to produce schizophrenia, and these factors may be indexed respectively by independent neuropsychological tests. Two neurocognitive measures, the Trail Making and Wisconsin Card Sorting (WCST) tests, were administered to 28 schizophrenic subjects, 15 nonschizophrenic siblings, and 35 control subjects by investigators blind to DSM-III-R diagnoses. Results support key predictions of a two-factor model: 1) having poor scores on both tests discriminated schizophrenic individuals from both siblings and control subjects, and 2) poor Trail Making and WCST performance were inversely associated among schizophrenic individuals' non-schizophrenic siblings.

Adult↗

Predicted and observed growth and toxigenesis by Clostridium botulinum type E in vacuum-packaged fishery product challenge tests.

The observed growth and toxigenesis by Clostridium botulinum type E in vacuum-packaged unprocessed, raw pickled and cold-smoked rainbow trout stored at slightly abusive temperatures were compared to predictions generated by two currently available predictive microbiological programs, Food MicroModel and Pathogen Modelling Program. In unprocessed fish there was only a 2 log increase in type E cell count at the time the toxicity first occurred after 2 weeks storage at 8 degrees C. Neither growth or toxin production was observed in raw pickled fish with a NaCl concentration of 6.7% (w/v) during 6 weeks storage at 6 degrees C. In cold-smoked fish with a NaCl level of 3.2% (w/v) toxic samples were detected after 3 and 4 weeks storage at 8 degrees C and 4 degrees C, respectively, without any increase in type E count. Both models were hampered by limitations to controlling environmental factors set by the programs which also had an adverse effect on the reliability of predictions. Most predictions generated by the models were inconsistent with the results observed in the challenge studies. In certain situations, the models seemed to be 'fail-safe', in that, the growth rate predicted from the model was faster or a predicted time to toxicity shorter than that which actually occurred in the food. In other situations, the predictions showed the product to be safe when it was not. The results demonstrate the need for further development and rigorous validation of the models before they are accepted for wider use by inspecting officials and the food industry.

Animals↗

Model reduction and analysis of robustness for the Wnt/beta-catenin signal transduction pathway.

We present a framework for model reduction of signal transduction networks. The methods are explained by considering a recent model for Wnt/beta-catenin signalling which plays an important regulatory role in cell development and oncogenesis. The procedure results in a reduction of system variables and parameters while maintaining the ability of the model to describe experimental data and to predict the in-vivo behaviour of the pathway. Using metabolic control analysis we quantified the response of the pathway towards random fluctuations of model parameters. This allows to characterise the robustness of the pathway against perturbations in stimulated and unstimulated states. We show that robustness depends on structural as well as kinetic properties of the pathway.

Animals↗

Systematic validation of disease models for pharmacoeconomic evaluations. Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

Pharmacoeconomic evaluations are often based on computer models which simulate the course of disease with and without medical interventions. The purpose of this study is to propose and illustrate a rigorous approach for validating such disease models. For illustrative purposes, we applied this approach to a computer-based model we developed to mimic the history of HIV-infected subjects at the greatest risk for Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) infection in Switzerland. The drugs included as a prophylactic intervention against MAC infection were azithromycin and clarithromycin. We used a homogenous Markov chain to describe the progression of an HIV-infected patient through six MAC-free states, one MAC state, and death. Probability estimates were extracted from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study database (1993-95) and randomized controlled trials. The model was validated testing for (1) technical validity (2) predictive validity (3) face validity and (4) modelling process validity. Sensitivity analysis and independent model implementation in DATA (PPS) and self-written Fortran 90 code (BAC) assured technical validity. Agreement between modelled and observed MAC incidence confirmed predictive validity. Modelled MAC prophylaxis at different starting conditions affirmed face validity. Published articles by other authors supported modelling process validity. The proposed validation procedure is a useful approach to improve the validity of the model.

AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections↗

Role of cellular compartmentation in the metabolic response to stress: mechanistic insights from computational models.

The mechanisms controlling ATP generation in the transition from normal resting conditions to either high work states or ischemia are poorly understood. ATP generation depends upon compartmentation between the mitochondria and cytosol of metabolic pathways and key energy transfer species that cannot be easily assessed experimentally. We developed a multicompartment mathematical model of cardiac metabolism to simulate the metabolic responses to ischemia and increased workload. The model is based on mass balances, transport, and metabolic processes in cardiac tissue, and has three distinct compartments (blood, cytosol, and mitochondria). In addition to distinguishing between cytosol and mitochondria, the model includes a cytosolic subcompartment for glycolytic metabolic channeling. The model simulations predict the rapid activation of glycogenolysis and lactate production at the onset of ischemia, and support the concept of localization of glycolysis to a cytosolic subcompartment. In addition, simulations show that mitochondrial NADH/NAD(+) is primarily determined by oxygen consumption during ischemia, while cytosolic NADH/NAD(+) and lactate production are largely a function of glycolytic flux during the initial phase, and is controlled by mitochondrial NADH/NAD(+) and the malate-aspartate shuttle during the steady state. Finally, the model predicts that metabolic activation with an abrupt increase in workload requires parallel activation of ATP hydrolysis, glycolysis, mitochondrial dehydrogenases, the electron transport chain, and ADP phosphorylation. Taken together, these studies demonstrate the importance of metabolic compartmentation in the regulation of cardiac energetics in response to acute stress, and they highlight the usefulness of computational models in this line of investigation.

Animals↗

A revised arithmetic model of long slender to short stumpy transformation in the African trypanosomes.

An arithmetic model that closely approximates an African trypanosome infection in immunosuppressed mice is presented. The final model was based on an examination of the following parameters: the rate of long slender to short stumpy transition, the maximum percentage of long slender to short stumpy stages that can be induced, the survival time or half life of the short stumpy stage in vivo, and the rate (%) of long slender to short stumpy stage transition following the peak in transformation. The model is based on the assumption that the long slender to short stumpy transition is parasite population dependent and that in mice the long slender to short stumpy transition only begins when the trypanosome population reaches a density of 1 x 10(7) trypanosomes/ml. The model predicts that the parasitemia during the first several days of an infection is controlled solely by the kinetics of the transition of the dividing long slender stage to the nondividing short stumpy stage. It was not necessary to include in the model the host's immune response in order to simulate the early growth kinetics of pleomorphic trypanosomes in infected mice.

Animals↗

MMTSB Tool Set: enhanced sampling and multiscale modeling methods for applications in structural biology.

We describe the Multiscale Modeling Tools for Structural Biology (MMTSB) Tool Set (https://mmtsb.scripps.edu/software/mmtsbToolSet.html), which is a novel set of utilities and programming libraries that provide new enhanced sampling and multiscale modeling techniques for the simulation of proteins and nucleic acids. The tool set interfaces with the existing molecular modeling packages CHARMM and Amber for classical all-atom simulations, and with MONSSTER for lattice-based low-resolution conformational sampling. In addition, it adds new functionality for the integration and translation between both levels of detail. The replica exchange method is implemented to allow enhanced sampling of both the all-atom and low-resolution models. The tool set aims at applications in structural biology that involve protein or nucleic acid structure prediction, refinement, and/or extended conformational sampling. With structure prediction applications in mind, the tool set also implements a facility that allows the control and application of modeling tasks on a large set of conformations in what we have termed ensemble computing. Ensemble computing encompasses loosely coupled, parallel computation on high-end parallel computers, clustered computational grids and desktop grid environments. This paper describes the design and implementation of the MMTSB Tool Set and illustrates its utility with three typical examples--scoring of a set of predicted protein conformations in order to identify the most native-like structures, ab initio folding of peptides in implicit solvent with the replica exchange method, and the prediction of a missing fragment in a larger protein structure.

Computer Simulation↗

Widespread access to predictive models in the motor system: a short review.

Recent behavioural and computational studies suggest that access to internal predictive models of arm and object dynamics is widespread in the sensorimotor system. Several systems, including those responsible for oculomotor and skeletomotor control, perceptual processing, postural control and mental imagery, are able to access predictions of the motion of the arm. A capacity to make and use predictions of object dynamics is similarly widespread. Here, we review recent studies looking at the predictive capacity of the central nervous system which reveal pervasive access to forward models of the environment.

Brain↗

Conducted vasoconstriction is reduced in a mouse model of sepsis.

The ability of an arteriole to conduct vasomotor responses along its length contributes to the control of organ perfusion. Sepsis, a systemic inflammatory response to infection, may compromise this control. We aimed to determine whether sepsis, induced by cecal ligation and perforation (CLP), reduces conducted vasoconstriction 24 h post-CLP. We locally stimulated mouse cremaster arterioles with KCl, measured the resulting local and the conducted constriction (500 microm upstream) and, based on these measurements, determined the communication ratio (CR(500)) as an index of the conducted response. Sepsis significantly reduced the CR(500) from 0.75 to 0.20. Based on a mathematical model, this reduction was predicted to have a significant impact on blood flow control. In septic mice, either a 1-hour washout of the cremaster muscle with physiological saline or a treatment of this muscle with the tyrosine kinase inhibitor PP-2 (100 nM) restored the CR(500) to the control level. Treatment of septic arterioles with the nitric oxide synthase inhibitor N(omega)-nitro-L-arginine methyl ester (100 microM) partially restored the CR(500) from 0.2 to 0.4. In control mice, lipopolysaccharide (LPS; 10 microg/ml) superfused over the cremaster muscle for 1 h reduced the CR(500); the nitric oxide (NO) donor S-nitroso-N-acetyl-penicillamine (50 microM) also reduced the CR(500). Thus, LPS and NO could be two factors mediating reduced conduction of vasoconstriction in sepsis. We conclude that sepsis reduces the KCl-induced conducted vasoconstriction in the mouse cremaster muscle by a tyrosine kinase- and nitric oxide- dependent mechanism.

Anesthetics, Local↗

Sexual victimization, generalized perception of control, and posttraumatic stress disorder symptom severity.

We examined the relations among various characteristics of sexual victimization, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptom severity, and generalized perception of control. Our main focus lay in testing three predictions derived from the animal model of PTSD articulated by Foa, Zinbarg, and Olasov-Rothbaum (1992) based on the effects of uncontrollable and/or unpredictable aversive events. A sample of 117 female undergraduates participated and completed self-report measures of past experience with child sexual abuse, adult sexual victimization, PTSD symptom severity, and locus of control. The results showed that child sexual abuse experienced on multiple occasions was associated with diminished generalized perception of control and that diminished generalized perception of control is associated with greater PTSD symptom severity following adult sexual victimization when experienced on a single occasion or involving force. These results provide partial support for the uncontrollability/unpredictability model of PTSD. Further research is necessary, however, to firmly establish the direction of causality involved in these associations.

Adolescent↗

Parental socioeconomic position and parental life satisfaction as predictors of job strain in adulthood: 18-year follow-up of the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to prospectively examine whether parental socioeconomic position (SEP) and parental life satisfaction predict job strain in adulthood. METHODS: The cohort comprised 755 participants from the ongoing Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study. The parents reported their SEP and life satisfaction when the participants were aged 6-21 years. Eighteen years later at ages 24-39 years, the participants responded to a survey on job strain and its components, job control and job demands. RESULTS: According to structural equation modeling, lower parental SEP and higher parental life dissatisfaction independently predicted increased adulthood job strain. Lower parental SEP also predicted lower educational attainment, which in turn was linked with higher job strain and lower job control. We found no gender differences in these predictive relationships. CONCLUSION: Parental SEP and parental life satisfaction are associated with job strain in adulthood, and the effect is partly mediated by education. These prospective data suggest that preemployment factors should be taken into account as potential confounders in future research on job strain-health associations.

Adolescent↗

Synergistic interaction of child manageability problems and parent-discipline tactics in predicting future growth in externalizing behavior for boys.

Manageability problems during early childhood for boys were hypothesized to disrupt parental discipline practices. In turn, disrupted parental discipline practices were hypothesized to interact with manageability problems during late childhood to predict change in antisocial behavior during the transition from elementary to middle school. Results indicated that maternal retrospective perceptions of unmanageability predicted observed maternal discipline practices, even when maternal antisocial behavior and depressed mood and the disruptive and antisocial behavior of the boy were statistically controlled. Graphical analyses and latent class growth models indicated that level of temper tantrums interacted with maternal discipline in predicting change in teacher ratings of antisocial behavior. The nature of the interaction indicated that maternal discipline was a risk factor for growth in antisocial behavior only for boys with high levels of tantrums.

Adolescent↗

The microsimulation approach to epidemiologic modeling of helminthic infections, with special reference to schistosomiasis.

The microsimulation technique has been used since 1985 as a tool for epidemiologic modeling of helminthic infections. This technique is characterized by mimicking individual life histories, which makes it possible to include several relevant processes and mechanisms that have not so far been considered in applied modeling. Biological, epidemiologic, and social processes can be simulated in detail, which allows realistic prediction of the impact of control strategies. It is clear that careful quantification and validation of the many processes and parameters in the model requires close collaboration with experts working on control projects. In the development and application of a microsimulation model, we distinguish eight steps, ranging from the identification of questions the model will be designed to address, to the completion of a model that can be used as a routine decision-making tool in a control program.

Animals↗

Improved infection control in the prevention of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in Australia: costs and benefits.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the costs and benefits of infection control strategies to prevent the transmission of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) in ophthalmic surgery in Australia. METHODS: The reduction in the risk of iatrogenic transmission of vCJD from feasible infection control strategies was calculated using decision analytic models. A static model calculated the direct secondary transmission for surgical eye procedures, and a simple dynamic model estimated the change in the risk of a subsequent sustained epidemic over the longer term. The expected number of vCJD infections, their cost of care and years of life lost and the estimated cost of strategies included the direct costs of infection control measures were calculated taking a health system perspective. RESULTS: The dynamic model (Markov process) predicted that from a hypothetical pool of as many as 100 primary vCJD cases there would be less than five iatrogenic infections in the next 30 years. If there are fewer than five primary cases the model predicted no secondary cases of vCJD. The costs of providing care for a vCJD case is estimated to be about $50,000, subject to considerable uncertainty. The minimum cost for using a partial infection control strategy to prevent an iatrogenic infection is likely to be in the order of several millions of dollars. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial public health investment would need to be made in order to reduce a low risk of iatrogenic transmission of vCJD. Given the likely number of cases of iatrogenic infection, and the order of magnitude of the costs of caring for cases of vCJD, it may be difficult to justify the high cost of risk reduction strategies.

Australia↗

The effect of repeated phlebotomy on bilirubin turnover, bilirubin clearance and unconjugated hyperbilirubinaemia in the Crigler-Najjar syndrome and the jaundiced Gunn rat: application of computers to experimental design.

1. A multicompartmental model of erythrokinetics and bilirubin production has been developed to predict the consequences of chronic phlebotomy on daily bilirubin turnover. 2. Control values for four physiological variables including bilirubin turnover were determined in a 20-year-old woman with type I congenital nonhaemolytic jaundice (Crigler-Najjar syndrome). With these base-line data, the model predicted the following changes during phlebotomy: a 34% fall in bilirubin turnover; a 240% increase in the haemoglobin content of bone-marrow erythroid precursors; a 25% fall in the half-life of 51Cr-labelled erythrocytes; a characteristic alteration of the erythrocyte survival curve after labelling with [2-14C]glycine. 3. On the assumption, previously validated in normal volunteer subjects and patients with Gilbert's syndrome, that hepatic bilirubin clearance was independent of turnover and would therefore remain unchanged, a fall in plasma unconjugated bilirubin concentration during phlebotomy from 436 to 282 mumol/1 was expected. 4. Accordingly, the patient underwent phlebotomy 350 ml/week for 2 months, and 500 ml/week during an additional 3 months. Appropriate studies during phlebotomy confirmed each of the predictions in paragraph 2 above. In particular, turnover fell by 31%. Unexpectedly, plasma unconjugated bilirubin remained essentially unchanged. Analogous results were observed in phlebotomized jaundiced Gunn rats. 5. Kinetic studies in both the patient and the rats demonstrated that the failure of plasma unconjugated bilirubin to fall in parallel with bilirubin turnover resulted from a prolongation of the terminal half-life of radioactively labelled bilirubin and a fall in bilirubin clearance in every instance. 6. These studies indicate that (a) in congenital non-haemolytic jaundice, bilirubin clearance is uniquely influenced by bilirubin turnover and (b) compartmental modelling and kinetic studies are useful for predicting and interpreting the results of both physiological experiments and experimental therapeutic regimens.

Adult↗

Energy cost minimization in left ventricular ejection: an optimal control model.

A new optimization model for explaining the observed left ventricular ejection patterns is presented. In the system model, arterial load is described by a modified windkessel load. The ejection pattern for a given cardiac output with fixed stroke volume and duration of ejection is predicted by minimizing a criterion that describes the total ventricular O2 consumption. The ejection patterns of the model closely resemble the observed ejection patterns. Also, the model predictions for changes in the values of the system parameters are qualitatively correct. The results strongly suggest that the control of ejection pattern satisfies the principle of energy cost minimization.

Animals↗

Economic decision analysis model of a paratuberculosis test and cull program.

A spreadsheet program was written to perform decision tree analysis for control of paratuberculosis (Johne's disease), when testing all adults in a herd and culling all animals with positive test results. The program incorporated diagnostic test sensitivity, specificity, and test cost with the cost or value of each of the 4 possible outcomes; true-positive, true-negative, false-positive, and false-negative test results. The program was designed to repeat the analysis for the independent variable pretest paratuberculosis prevalence (0 to 100%). Model output was graphed as profit or loss in dollars vs pretest prevalence. The threshold was defined as the pretest prevalence at which benefit-cost equaled zero. Reed-Frost disease modeling techniques were used to predict the number of Mycobacterium paratuberculosis-infected replacement heifers resulting from infected cows during a control program. Sensitivity analysis was performed on variables of the decision tree model; test sensitivity, specificity, test cost, and factors affecting the cost of paratuberculosis to a commercial dairy. A test and cull program was profitable when paratuberculosis caused greater than or equal to 6% decrease in milk production if the pretest prevalence was greater than 6%, test sensitivity was 50%, test specificity was 98%, and the testing cost was $4/cow. Test specificities greater than 98% did not markedly affect the threshold for tests with a 50% sensitivity and costing $4/cow. Test sensitivity had minimal effect on the threshold. Using a diagnostic test with a 50% sensitivity and a 98% specificity as an example, test cost was shown to affect the threshold prevalence at which the test and cull program became profitable.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Animals↗

Does a radiation dose-response relation exist concerning survival of patients who have soft-tissue sarcomas of the extremities? Radiation dose-response relation for soft-tissue sarcomas.

This study analyzes a single-institution experience by evaluating the impact on survival of increasing total dose of adjunctive irradiation in patients who had extremity soft-tissue sarcoma (ESTS). A retrospective review of the tumor registry at a university medical center from January 1984 through December 1992 yielded a total of 59 surgical patients of ESTS. With follow-up ranging from 30 to 135 months (median, 65 months), the 2-, 5-, and 8-year overall and disease-free survival for all patients was 86%, 71%, 58% and 76%, 70%, 56%, respectively. Multivariate analyses using the Cox proportional hazards model revealed that total radiation dose (p = 0.02), American Joint Committee on Cancer stage (p = 0.04), and tumor size (p = 0.006) were all significant prognostic factors of overall survival; however, only tumor size was predictive of disease-free survival (p = 0.02). When the effect of tumor size and disease stage were controlled in the Cox model, a dose-response curve between increasing total radiation dose and improved overall patient survival was indicated. This study demonstrates the significance of tumor size on predicting both overall and disease-free survival in patients who have soft-tissue sarcomas of the extremity. It also suggests, however, that a radiation dose-response relation may exist for overall survival. Future investigations should consider evaluating the minimal total radiation dose needed to optimize patient survival after limb-sparing surgery.

Adolescent↗