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PubMed1998

The relation between income and mortality in U.S. blacks and whites.

Differential mortality exists in the United States both between racial/ethnic groups and along gradients of socioeconomic status. The specification of statistical models for processes underlying these observed disparities has been hindered by the fact that social and economic quantities are distributed in a highly nonrandom manner throughout the population. We sought to provide a substantive foundation for model development by representing the shape of the income-mortality relation by racial/ethnic group. We used data on black and white men and women from the longitudinal component of the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), 1986-1990, which provided 1,191,824 person-years of follow-up and 12,165 mortal events. To account for family size when considering income, we used the ratio of annual family income to the federal poverty line for a family of similar composition. To avoid unnecessary categorizations and prior assumptions about model form, we employed kernel smoothing techniques and calculated the continuous mortality surface across dimensions of adjusted income and age for each of the gender and racial/ethnic groups. Representing regions of equal mortality density with contour plots, we observed interactions that need to be accommodated by any subsequent statistical models. We propose two general theories that provide a foundation for more elaborate and testable hypotheses in the future.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2005

Within-day feeding behavior of lactating dairy cows measured using a real-time control system.

The suitability of a statistical model for describing within-day feeding behavior, and potential relationships between model parameters and commonly measured experimental variables were examined. Forty multiparous, midlactation Holstein cows were fed using a real-time control system to record the date of each visit to a feeder, entrance time, exit time, and feed consumed over a 6-wk period. Daily feed consumption, number of visits, meal duration, and within-visit rate of food intake were then calculated. Two peaks in within-day rates of feed intake were indicated, suggesting that feeding activity was randomly distributed around each peak, that is, binormal. Parameters describing the distributions (means, standard deviations, and the percentage of total feeding activity associated with each peak) were estimated. An adjusted average of 91% of the variation in within-day feeding activity was explained by the binormal model. Relationships between model parameters and commonly measured experimental variables were also identified; behavioral traits were correlated with total feed intake. Feeding activity patterns in literature data were also amenable to reanalysis by the binormal model. Lactating cows consistently exhibited a distinct diurnal pattern in feeding activity; they were most active near sunrise and again near sunset (crepuscular). Effects of various management operations (e.g., feeding and milking times and frequencies, and lighting) on within-day feeding patterns remain to be established, although a statistical model for evaluating them is now available. The patterns may have important implications for scheduling management activities to maximize feed intake and production.

Animal Feed↗

PubMed1987

A genetic model describing the evolution of levamisole resistance in Trichostrongylus colubriformis, a nematode parasite of sheep.

Data from 21 generations of selection on a levamisole-resistant strain of Trichostrongylus colubriformis, either exposed to selection with the anthelmintics levamisole (LEV) or thiabendazole (TBZ), or unexposed, were used to fit a genetic model describing the evolution of LEV resistance in this parasite species. A statistical model describing the dose-response relationship for a mixed population of susceptible and resistant parasite eggs exposed to anthelmintic was fitted to egg-hatch assay data for each generation and for each selection regimen. Estimated parameters from the statistical model provided the input for the genetic model from which were obtained estimates of the relative fitness of susceptible and resistant genotypes under each selection regimen. The experimental data and the genetic models both indicated that, in this parasite strain, LEV resistance was determined by a single dominant gene, and that TBZ selects for LEV susceptibility. A variety of drug alternation programmes was simulated for this genetic system. The programme that minimized the development of LEV resistance involved alternating the drugs (LEV and TBZ) between each worm generation.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Photofragmentation of the fluorene cation: II. Determination of the H-loss energy-dependent rate constant.

The hydrogen-loss channel, induced by sequential multiphoton absorption, of the vapor-phase fluorene cation was investigated using a pulsed supersonic molecular beam, a time-of-flight mass spectrometer, and pulsed nanosecond lasers. Our new method leads to the determination of the absolute absorption cross section. Its attenuation with the number of absorbed photons has been approximated by means of statistical models. A model-free determination of the evolution of the dissociation rate constant in a relatively large energy range was obtained by solving the set of coupled differential kinetic equations numerically. Particular attention was focused on the data analysis techniques. The free fit of these rate constants is close to the photothermodissociation statistical model, but shows a discrepancy with the Rice and Ramsperger and Kassel model mainly at high energy. The resulting activation energy is in agreement with both that deduced from the ab initio calculations and that from the tight-binding energy potential surface model.

Cations↗

PubMed2003

Temporal subtraction of thorax CR images using a statistical deformation model.

We propose a voxel-based nonrigid registration algorithm for temporal subtraction of two-dimensional thorax X-ray computed radiography images of the same subject. The deformation field is represented by a B-spline with a limited number of degrees of freedom, that allows global rib alignment to minimize subtraction artifacts within the lung field without obliterating interval changes of clinically relevant soft-tissue abnormalities. The spline parameters are constrained by a statistical deformation model that is learned from a training set of manually aligned image pairs using principal component analysis. Optimization proceeds along the transformation components rather then along the individual spline coefficients, using pattern intensity of the subtraction image within the automatically segmented lung field region as the criterion to be minimized and applying a simulated annealing strategy for global optimization in the presence of multiple local optima. The impact of different transformation models with varying number of deformation modes is evaluated on a training set of 26 images using a leave-one-out strategy and compared to the manual registration result in terms of criterion value and deformation error. Registration quality is assessed on a second set of validation images by a human expert rating each subtraction image on screen. In 85% of the cases, the registration is subjectively rated to be adequate for clinical use.

Algorithms↗

PubMed1998

Overestimation of hereditary breast cancer risk.

OBJECTIVE: To find out how women with breast or ovarian cancer rate their chances of carrying hereditary factors for these cancers and to determine the extent to which they overestimate their risk. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: BRCA1 and BRCA2 are genes that cause breast and ovarian cancer when they are inherited in families. Testing for disease-associated mutations in these genes is now available commercially. Previous studies have shown that women overestimate their chances of carrying mutations. However, women's perceptions of risk have not been compared to objective estimates or to actual BRCA1 and BRCA2 testing results. METHODS: This study examines estimates of carrying BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations among women participating in a randomized trial comparing alternative precounseling educational materials. Estimates were provided by participants in a baseline mailed survey. Estimates given by participants were compared to those given by an expert panel and by a statistical model. Testing was offered free of charge and was done in an academic laboratory using standard techniques. Baseline estimates of participating women were compared to the estimates of the expert panel, to the carrier probability provided by the statistical model, and to actual testing results. RESULTS: Women who have a personal history of breast or ovarian cancer significantly overestimate their risk of carrying hereditary factors for breast and ovarian cancer. Self-estimates exceeded the estimates of experts and a statistical model. One hundred women completed testing, and 21 mutations in BRCA1 or BRCA2 were found. Many test-negative women also overestimated their hereditary risk. Some women with a high carrier probability were negative for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations. CONCLUSIONS: Overestimation of hereditary factors is common among affected women with a family history of cancer. Pretest education and counseling should reduce these high-risk perceptions. Better estimates of carrier probability will direct more intensive clinical services and research.

Adult↗

PubMed2002

Edge-preserving tomographic reconstruction with nonlocal regularization.

Tomographic image reconstruction using statistical methods can provide more accurate system modeling, statistical models, and physical constraints than the conventional filtered backprojection (FBP) method. Because of the ill posedness of the reconstruction problem, a roughness penalty is often imposed on the solution to control noise. To avoid smoothing of edges, which are important image attributes, various edge-preserving regularization methods have been proposed. Most of these schemes rely on information from local neighborhoods to determine the presence of edges. In this paper, we propose a cost function that incorporates nonlocal boundary information into the regularization method. We use an alternating minimization algorithm with deterministic annealing to minimize the proposed cost function, jointly estimating region boundaries and object pixel values. We apply variational techniques implemented using level-sets methods to update the boundary estimates; then, using the most recent boundary estimate, we minimize a space-variant quadratic cost function to update the image estimate. For the positron emission tomography transmission reconstruction application, we compare the bias-variance tradeoff of this method with that of a "conventional" penalized-likelihood algorithm with local Huber roughness penalty.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2002

Extrusion of an imperfect palindrome to a cruciform in superhelical DNA: complete determination of energetics using a statistical mechanical model.

We present a detailed study of the extrusion of an imperfect palindrome, derived from the terminal regions of vaccinia virus DNA and contained in a superhelical plasmid, into a cruciform containing bulged bases. We monitor the course of extrusion by two-dimensional gel electrophoresis experiments as a function of temperature and linking number. We find that extrusion pauses at partially extruded states as negative superhelicity increases. To understand the course of extrusion with changes in linking number, DeltaLk, we present a rigorous semiempirical statistical mechanical analysis that includes complete coupling between DeltaLk, cruciform extrusion, formation of extrahelical bases, and temperature-dependent denaturation. The imperfections in the palindrome are sequentially incorporated into the cruciform arms as hairpin loops, single unpaired bases, and complex local regions containing several unpaired bases. We analyze the results to determine the free energies, enthalpies and entropies of formation of all local structures involved in extrusion. We find that, for each unpaired structure, the DeltaG, DeltaH and DeltaS of formation are all approximately proportional to the number of unpaired bases contained therein. This surprising result holds regardless of the arrangement or composition of unpaired bases within a particular structure. Imperfections have major effects on the overall energetics of cruciform extrusion and on the course of this transition. In particular, the extent of the DeltaLk change necessary to extrude an imperfect palindrome is considerably greater than that required for extrusion of the underlying perfect palindrome. Our analysis also suggests that, at higher temperatures, significant denaturation at the base of an imperfect cruciform can successfully compete with extension of the cruciform arms.

Base Pairing↗

PubMed2000

Personal fluoride and solvent exposures, and their determinants, in semiconductor manufacturing.

Personal air sampling for fluorides and solvents was done at 35 semiconductor fabrication facilities in the United States. Fluoride compounds were used in etching and cleaning operations, and solvents were used in photoresist and developing operations. All personal solvent and fluoride levels were less than 2 percent of current Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) standards. Statistical models of the exposure determinants for the target agents found production level, as indicated by number of semiconductor wafer cassettes loaded/unloaded from the target machines or baths, was predictive of fluoride, xylene and 1-methoxy-2-propyl acetate exposures. The percent of fresh air ventilation and the percent of xylene in the photoresist were also significant determinants in the statistical model predicting personal xylene exposure levels.

Air Pollutants, Occupational↗

PubMedDate not supplied

[Effectiveness of energy transformation during active transport of ions in a biomembrane].

A statistical model of active ion transport in biomembrane is presented. The coefficient of energy conversion for linear and nonlinear processes in this system is obtained. It is shown that in the linear case this coefficient equals to the one obtained in linear thermodynamics. Based on the maximum of this coefficient, the transport parameters for ions are found. The results of the statistical model are in good agreement with experiments on biological membranes.

Adenosine Triphosphate↗

PubMed2004

Solution of a statistical mechanics model for pulse formation in lasers.

We present a rigorous statistical-mechanics theory of nonlinear many mode laser systems. An important example is the passively mode-locked laser that promotes pulse operation when a saturable absorber is placed in the cavity. It was shown by Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 103901 (2002)] that pulse formation is a first-order phase transition of spontaneous ordering of modes in an effective "thermodynamic" system, in which intracavity noise level is the effective temperature. In this paper we present a rigorous solution of a model of passive mode locking. We show that the thermodynamics depends on a single parameter, and calculate exactly the mode-locking point. We find the phase diagram and calculate statistical quantities, including the dependence of the intracavity power on the gain saturation function, and finite size corrections near the transition point. We show that the thermodynamics is independent of the gain saturation mechanism and that it is correctly reproduced by a mean field calculation. The outcome is a new solvable statistical mechanics system with an unstable self-interaction accompanied by a natural global power constraint, and an exact description of an important many mode laser system.

Journal Article↗

PubMed1995

The potential effects of climate change on winter mortality in England and Wales.

In Britain death rates from several important causes, particularly circulatory and respiratory diseases, rise markedly during the colder winter months. This close association between temperature and mortality suggests that climate change as a result of global warming may lead to a future reduction in excess winter deaths. This paper gives a brief introductory review of the literature on the links between cold conditions and health, and statistical models are subsequently developed of the associations between temperature and monthly mortality rates for the years 1968 to 1988 for England and Wales. Other factors, particularly the occurrence of influenza epidemics, are also taken into account. Highly significant negative associations were found between temperature and death rates from all causes and from chronic bronchitis, pneumonia, ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. The statistical models developed from this analysis were used to compare death rates for current conditions with those that might be expected to occur in a future warmer climate. The results indicate that the higher temperatures predicted for 2050 might result in nearly 9000 fewer winter deaths each year with the largest contribution being from mortality from ischaemic heart disease. However, these preliminary estimates might change when further research is able to make into account a number of additional factors affecting the relationship between mortality and climate.

Cerebrovascular Disorders↗

PubMed2000

Accounting for intubation status in predicting mortality for victims of motor vehicle crashes.

BACKGROUND: Two of the important predictors of mortality for trauma patients are the Glasgow Coma Scale and the respiratory rate. However, for intubated patients, the verbal response component of the Glasgow Coma Scale and the respiratory rate cannot be accurately obtained. This study extends previous work that attempts to predict mortality accurately for intubated patients without using verbal response and respiratory rate. METHODS: The New York State Trauma Registry was used to identify 1994 and 1995 victims of motor vehicle crashes (MVCs). For the subset of patients who were not intubated, we developed two statistical models to predict mortality: one did not contain verbal response or respiratory rate, and the other contained a predicted verbal response. These were compared with a model that did include verbal response and respiratory rate. We also compared the predictive abilities of the first two models for all MVC patients (intubated and nonintubated) and determined the extent to which intubated patients were at increased risk of dying in the hospital after having adjusted for other predictors of mortality. RESULTS: For nonintubated patients, the statistical model without verbal response and the model with predicted verbal response had slightly better discrimination and worse calibration than the model that included verbal response and respiratory rate. Predicted verbal response did not improve the strength of the model without verbal response. For all MVC patients (intubated and nonintubated), predicted verbal response was not a significant predictor of mortality when used in combination with the other predictors. Intubation status was a significant predictor, with intubated patients having a higher probability of dying in the hospital than patients with otherwise identical risk factors. CONCLUSION: Inpatient mortality for intubated MVC patients can be accurately predicted without respiratory rate or verbal response. There appears to be no need for predicted verbal response to be part of the prediction formula, but intubation status is an important independent predictor of mortality and should be used in statistical models that predict mortality for MVC patients.

Accidents, Traffic↗

PubMed1993

Tracking of markers and onset of disease among HIV-1 seroconverters.

Repeated measurements on persons infected with HIV-1 indicate that infection has a dynamic impact on several markers of immune suppression and activation. The objectives of this report are: (a) to provide a statistical model for the correlation structure of serial measurements of immunological markers, and (b) to identify features of marker profiles associated with the timing of AIDS diagnoses. We analyse data obtained from 328 seroconverters participating in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study on whom the date of HIV-1 seroconversion is known within +/- 4.5 months. Immunological markers considered here are CD4 cell counts, serum beta 2-microglobulin and serum neopterin. The statistical model for HIV-related changes in markers consists of (1) a piecewise linear regression model for the trajectories of markers over time and (2) a two-parameter autocorrelation function that generalizes Markovian and simple random effects autocorrelation structures. Application of this model for marker measurements revealed a high degree of tracking, as the estimated autocorrelation function exhibited sub-exponential decay over time. Though current marker levels are most informative on future values, there is substantial information (memory) in previous measurements. A feature suggested by the analysis of groups formed according to the length of the AIDS-free period, is the sequential divergence of the CD4 trajectories where steeper declines occurred with a two-year lag prior to AIDS onset. For AIDS cases diagnosed 3-5 and 5-7 years after seroconversion, the rates of decline compared with those free of AIDS for at least 4 years were steeper by 95 and 46 per cent respectively at two years prior to AIDS.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

PubMed2006

Are KISS data representative of German intensive care units? Statistical issues.

OBJECTIVES: Data collected within the German nosocomial infection surveillance system KISS are recommended as reference data for judging nosocomial infection rates in German intensive care units (ICUs). It is unknown whether the KISS data tend to under- or overestimate the true infection incidence rates. In this article, methodological aspects of the SIR1 study on the incidence of nosocomial infections are discussed, with the aim of estimating unbiased incidence rates of nosocomial infections in interdisciplinary German ICUs and examining whether the KISS data are representative. METHODS: We discuss the following methodological issues: 1) Sample size estimation. 2) Stratified random sampling of German ICUs. 3) Investigation of seasonal effects. 4) Statistical modeling of incidence rates using a negative binomial regression model. 5) Comparison of weighted incidence rates with the standardized rate ratio (SRR). RESULTS: Random sampling proved difficult to realize in practice since many ICUs refused to participate, particularly those in small hospitals. Analysis was adjusted for hospital size. No seasonal trends were found in the KISS data. Due to marked differences between ICUs, the number of infections is over-dispersed compared to a Poisson model, so negative binomial regression was used. Fifty ICUs were observed for two consecutive months each, corresponding to 21,832 patient days, during which 262 infections occurred. Infections were more frequent in large hospitals. The incidence rates provided by the SIR study are on average (SRR) 1.89 (1.63-2.20) times as large as those estimated by the KISS system. CONCLUSION: For estimating nosocomial infection incidence rates, random sampling and statistical modeling of over-dispersion were successfully performed. The study provides evidence that the KISS surveillance system tends to underestimate the true incidence rates of nosocomial infections in German ICUs.

Binomial Distribution↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Treatment of baseline drifts in fMRI time series analysis.

PURPOSE: Gradual drifting of baseline signal intensity is common in functional MRI (fMRI) time course data. Methods for dealing with this effect are studied. METHOD: Simulations and fMRI data are used to study three statistical models that account for baseline drift. A method is proposed in which the time course data are linear least-squares fit to a reference function that includes the slope of the baseline drift as a free parameter. RESULTS: It is shown that the least-squares method is equivalent to cross-correlation with Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization. Additionally, it is shown that certain paradigm designs improve the sensitivity of statistical tests when using any of the drift correction methods commonly employed. The least-squares method results in a variety of useful parameters such as activation amplitude, with a well characterized error. CONCLUSION: Very simple techniques can effectively account for observed drifts. It is important to design paradigms that are symmetric about the midpoint of the time series. In calculating confidence levels, a proper statistical model that accounts for baseline drifts is necessary to ensure accurate confidence level assessment.

Humans↗

PubMed2004

Criteria of candidacy for unilateral cochlear implantation in postlingually deafened adults III: prospective evaluation of an actuarial approach to defining a criterion.

OBJECTIVE: Outcomes from unilateral cochlear implantation in postlingually deafened adults are variable and difficult to predict precisely from data gathered before surgery. The objective was to derive and validate a method for specifying criteria of candidacy for implantation that takes this variability into account. DESIGN: Accuracy of identifying words in prerecorded sentences without lipreading was measured in 480 users of unilateral multichannel cochlear implants. These patients had all scored zero before surgery on prerecorded open-set tests of word recognition in sentences with acoustic hearing aids. Statistical models were derived that calculated the odds that a patient would score higher with an implant than a criterion score, given knowledge of the duration of profound deafness in the implanted ear. The accuracy of the models was evaluated prospectively with two new groups of patients who scored between 1% and approximately 50% correct before surgery in one or both ears with acoustic hearing aids. Group I (N=53) was implanted in an ear that scored zero. Group II (N=31) was implanted in an ear that scored above zero. Benefits from implantation, measured as changes in word recognition performance and in health utility, were compared with the odds calculated by the statistical models. RESULTS: The preferred model was based on data from 376 subjects. It made accurate predictions of the proportion of patients in group I, and, disregarding minor exceptions, accurate predictions of the proportion of patients in group II, who improved on their preoperative word recognition score. Benefit from implantation was low for patients implanted with odds less favorable than 4:1 (4 chances out of 5). CONCLUSIONS: Adoption of odds of 4:1 as the criterion of candidacy for unilateral cochlear implantation would be likely to maintain acceptable benefit and cost-effectiveness while being explicit and informative for patients, clinicians, and commissioners of health care.

Actuarial Analysis↗

PubMed1997

Theoretical calculation and prediction of Caco-2 cell permeability using MolSurf parametrization and PLS statistics.

PURPOSE: To statistically model the permeability across Caco-2 cell monolayers using theoretically computed molecular descriptors and multivariate statistics. METHODS: Seventeen structurally diverse compounds were investigated. The program MolSurf was used to compute theoretical molecular descriptors related to physico-chemical properties such as lipophilicity, polarity, polarizability and hydrogen bonding. The multivariate Partial Least Squares Projections to Latent Structures (PLS) method was used to delineate the relationship between the permeability across Caco-2 cell monolayers and the theoretically computed molecular descriptors. RESULTS: Excellent statistical models were derived. Properties associated with hydrogen bonding had the largest impact on diffusion through the monolayers and should be kept at a minimum to promote high permeability. High lipophilicity and the presence of surface electrons, i.e. valence electrons, which are not tightly bonded to the molecule, were also found to have a favorable influence to achieve high permeability. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that theoretically computed molecular MolSurf descriptors in conjunction with multivariate statistics of PLS type can be used to successfully model permeability across Caco-2 cell monolayers and, thus, differentiate drugs with poor permeability from those with acceptable permeability at an early stage of the preclinical drug discovery process.

Caco-2 Cells↗