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PubMed1986

Hepatitis-free interval after clotting factor therapy in first infused haemophiliacs.

Post-infusion hepatitis is known to occur very frequently in haemophiliacs after treatment with unheated commercial clotting factor concentrates, obtained from large plasma donation pool. On the contrary, single-donor cryoprecipitate is likely to carry a lower risk of transmitting hepatitis. To evaluate this hypothesis, we retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 25 first infused haemophiliacs (from 1981 to 1984) treated with unheated commercial clotting factor concentrates (n = 19) or cryoprecipitate (n = 6). The hepatitis-free interval after the beginning of therapy was expressed as exposure days. The end point of each patient, i.e. the hepatitis occurrence, was defined as an increase of amino-transferases (ALT and AST) and/or the seroconversion of HBV-markers, which were checked every three months. The life-table method and log-rank test showed that cryoprecipitates had a significantly longer hepatitis-free interval (p = 0.0131, log-rank test) and a lower risk of transmitting hepatitis (p = 0.01-0.05, life-table method) than the commercial concentrates. However, the safety of cryoprecipitate therapy was shown to cover only a few exposure days, and so the real advantage of this product depends on the bleeding frequency of the patient concerned. We believe that these methods and our findings may be useful to assess and compare the safety of the new "heat-treated" clotting factor concentrates.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1979

The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality.

Life table methods are developed for populations whose members differ in their endowment for longevity. Unlike standard methods, which ignore such heterogeneity, these methods use different calculations to construct cohort, period, and individual life tables. The results imply that standard methods overestimate current life expectancy and potential gains in life expectancy from health and safety interventions, while underestimating rates of individual aging, past progress in reducing mortality, and mortality differentials between pairs of populations. Calculations based on Swedish mortality data suggest that these errors may be important, especially in old age.

Actuarial Analysis↗

PubMed1994

Long-term risk of IDDM in first-degree relatives of patients with IDDM.

Due to a short observation period previous studies may have underestimated prevalence and recurrence risk of IDDM in relatives of IDDM patients. To obtain a more exact life-time risk estimate we identified 310 probands, representative of Danish IDDM patients, characterized by current age more than 50 years, age at onset 40 years or less and diabetes duration of more than 30 years. Family data were obtained from 291 probands. Mean "observation" times (age) (+/- SD) for siblings (n = 553) and offspring (n = 359) were 59.4 +/- 16.1 years and 33.8 +/- 8.8 years, respectively. Of the probands 73 (25.1%) had at least one first-degree relative with IDDM. Seventeen percent had at least one affected sibling. An increase from 10.4% to 22.4% of having first-degree relatives with IDDM among probands with age at onset below 20 years was observed during the period from proband at age 21 years up to 1 September 1992. Among affected siblings 48% of the second cases were affected more than 10 years after the first affected sibling. Using the life-table method cumulative recurrence risks from time of birth were calculated for siblings up to age 30 years of 6.4% and up to age 60 years of 9.6%. For offspring the risk up to age 34 years was 6.3%. In addition, we present a life-table method evaluating the cumulative recurrence risk from time of onset in the proband, as this is the most relevant when giving genetic counselling. In conclusion, the long-term risks of IDDM in siblings and offspring are high compared to that shown in previous reports.

Aged↗

PubMed1992

Predictors of relapse in peptic ulcer.

Four hundred and two patients with peptic ulcer were selected for acute therapy with either pirenzepine (100 mg/day) or cimetidine (800 mg/day) using the envelope method. Those who achieved healing within 3 months (251 patients) were randomized in a double-blind fashion to maintenance therapy with either pirenzepine (75 mg/day) or placebo. In a preliminary study of 163 patients in which a multiple regression life-table method was employed, 4 out of 15 possible predictors were found to have a significant influence on relapse. These were site of ulcer lesions, psychological stress, endoscopic findings at the time of healing of the original ulcers, and acute therapy. Stratified analysis of the evolution of relapse by the Cutler-Ederer life-table method indicated that several other factors also influenced relapse in certain patient subgroups. Most relapses (93.8%) occurred at the same site as, or close to the site of, the original ulcers, indicating that ulcer scars also play a role in relapse.

Adult↗

PubMed1986

Univariate and multivariate analyses of cadaver kidney graft survival data.

1. Clinical data on 6632 first cadaver transplants performed since January 1983 were analyzed by multivariate (Cox regression) and univariate (life-table) methods. 2. Cox regression analysis showed blood transfusion, recipient's race, HLA mismatch, highest antibody, warm ischemia time, and cyclosporine treatment as significant factors affecting graft survival. 3. A comparison of survival curves predicted by Cox regression analysis and that by the life-table method showed close agreement between the two methods. 4. Cyclosporine was one of the most significant variables affecting graft survival. There was a 13% overall increase in one-year graft survival due to cyclosporine treatment. However, other factors were still significant; they have not become obsolete in the cyclosporine era.

Cyclosporins↗

PubMed1995

[20 years orthograde venous bypass for infrainguinal arterial reconstruction].

During a 20-year period (1973-1993) a series of 684 orthograde vein bypass procedures with the translocated greater (or lesser) saphenous vein was performed in 629 patients (422 male, 207 female) of whom 221 (35%) were diabetics. There were 499 femoro-popliteal grafts to the infrageniculate popliteal artery, 158 femoro-crural and 27 popliteo-crural grafts. Indication for surgery was rest pain and/or tissue necrosis in 404, claudication in 277 and asymptomatic popliteal artery aneurysm in 3 extremities. All patients received long-term oral anticoagulation and were followed at regular intervals. At the concluding follow-up (01-06/1993) graft function was investigated by colour flow duplex scanning and/or arteriography. Cumulative patient survival at 1, 5, 10 and 15 years was 90.6%, 62.8%, 38.6% and 27.1%. Multivariate analysis (Cox-model) proved that preoperative clinical status (rest pain and tissue necrosis vs. claudication and asymptomatic popliteal artery aneurysm) (p < 0.0001) and diabetes (p < 0.001) were significant factors for survival. The 30-day patency rate was 93%, and the secondary cumulative patency rates (life-table method) were 85.7%, 78.6%, 73.8% and 65.9% at 1, 5, 10 and 15 years. Only the preoperative clinical status was a weak prognostic factor (Mantel p < 0.029) whereas diabetes or the level of proximal and distal anastomosis were without importance for graft performance. Cumulative limb salvage rates (life-table method) at 1, 5, 10 and 15 years were 91.2%, 85.6%, 83.4% and 79.9% for the 404 legs operated for rest pain and or necrosis; and they were 100%, 98.8%, 97.7% and 94.9% for the 277 legs with claudication.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Adolescent↗

PubMed2001

The durability of endoscopic saphenous vein grafts: a 5-year observational study.

BACKGROUND: Endoscopic saphenous vein harvest has been explored as a minimally invasive alternative to a long continuous leg incision for removal of the greater saphenous vein. The endoscopic technique uses limited incisions (2-4) with extended "skin bridges" and videoscopic equipment for the dissection and removal of the greater saphenous vein. This study was undertaken to evaluate the long-term durability of saphenous vein grafts harvested by an endoscopic technique and used for lower extremity arterial revascularization. METHODS: All patients who underwent endoscopic saphenous vein harvesting for lower extremity arterial bypass grafting were prospectively followed for graft patency and risk factors. Grafts were surveyed with serial duplex scans at 3- to 6-month intervals over this 5-year study. Life-table methods were used to assess graft survival. A computerized registry and medical records were reviewed to determine graft patency and patient survival. RESULTS: From September 1994 to August 2000, 164 lower extremity arterial saphenous vein grafts harvested by an endoscopic technique were used for lower extremity arterial bypass grafting in 150 patients. The patient population included 111 males (75%) and 112 smokers (75%), but also included a high-risk cohort of 65 diabetic patients (43%) and 15 patients undergoing dialysis/renal transplant (10%). Twenty-eight patients (19%) died within the study period. With life-table methods, 1-, 3-, and 5-year secondary patency rates were 85% (+/- 3.2%), 74% (+/- 5.7%), and 68% (+/- 11.6%). Of the 30 failed grafts, 7 (4%) failed in the first month related to inadequate runoff (4), cardiac instability (2), and an additional surgical procedure (1). Twenty-three grafts (14%) failed between 1 and 42 months. Twenty-two (16%) of these 134 patent grafts underwent a second procedure to maintain patency (13 as primary-assisted patency and 9 as secondary patency). CONCLUSIONS: Endoscopic saphenous vein harvest for lower extremity arterial reconstruction provides a satisfactory conduit for lower extremity bypass grafting. Although increased manipulation from this limited access technique may incite an injury response in the vein, these vein grafts can maintain an adequate patency for lower extremity bypass grafting.

Adult↗

PubMed1986

Corneal graft survival: a retrospective Australian study.

Four hundred and forty-eight consecutive corneal grafts are analysed and their survival calculated using the actuarial life-table method. Overall survival at two years is 81 +/- 4% and at five years is 65 +/- 5%. Within diagnostic subgroups keratoconus has the best prognosis. Previous graft failure and recipient corneal vascularization are shown to have a negative effect on graft survival. Sex of patient, urgency of operation and use of combined procedures do not affect survival and second regrafts fare no worse than first regrafts. The use of the actuarial life-table method of analysing graft survival is discussed and its importance emphasized.

Actuarial Analysis↗

PubMed1997

Results of a pilot study of the time to azoospermia after vasectomy in Mexico City.

In a joint pilot study by Family Health International (FHI), AVSC International, and the Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS), information was gathered on the determinants of azoospermia following vasectomy on 38 healthy men who chose vasectomy for contraception. The time and number of ejaculations associated with loss of sperm motility and loss of sperm eosin vital staining were also evaluated. "Azoospermia" was defined on the basis of two consecutive azoospermic semen samples collected at least 3 days apart. The single decrement life table method was used to calculate weekly gross cumulative life table rates for the time to azoospermia, zero motility, and zero viability. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the product-limit estimates of the cumulative rates for the total number of ejaculations to azoospermia, 0% motility and 0% viability. The median time to azoospermia was 10 weeks and at the end of week 20, the life table rate (+/- standard error) was 93.0 (+/- 6.30) weeks/100 men. The median number of ejaculations to azoospermia was between 25 and 30, and the cumulative rate (+/- standard error) at 60 ejaculations reached 94.5 (+/- 5.16)/100 men.

Adult↗

PubMed1985

Umbilical vein bypass in patients with severe lower limb ischemia: a report of 121 consecutive cases.

In 112 patients with severe ischemia of the lower limb and without a suitable saphenous vein, 99 femoropopliteal and 22 femorodistal bypass procedures were performed with the modified human umbilical vein (Biograft, Meadox Medicals Inc., Oakland, N.J.). Seventy-eight percent of the operations were performed for limb salvage. In the remaining 22% the indication was severe disabling claudication. Forty-nine percent of the patients had previously undergone arterial reconstruction of the extremity in question. In 36% the distal anastomosis was to the popliteal artery above the knee, in 46% to the popliteal artery below the knee, and in 18% to one of the crural arteries. It was mandatory to perform an additional proximal reconstruction in 38% of the extremities. The observation time ranged from 6 to 60 months, with a mean of 24 months. Two patients died within the first month. The overall cumulative patency rate calculated by the life table method was 67.7% at 1 year, 61.2% at 2 years, and an unchanged 56.6% at 3 to 5 years. The cumulative patency rate in the limb salvage group was higher (58.6%) than the patency rate of the grafts implanted for claudication (46.5%, not significant). Graft patency decreased the more peripherally the distal anastomosis was situated, but we could demonstrate neither a significant relationship between graft patency and runoff nor any prognostic significance in the peroperatively measured flow values. Limb salvage calculated by the life table method was 86% at 1 year and 75.4% at 5 years. It is concluded that the umbilical vein graft is an acceptable alternative for bypass grafting in patients without a suitable autogenous vein.

Aged↗

PubMed1997

Breast cancer risk estimation in families with history of breast cancer.

Among 288 breast cancer patients (118 with bilateral disease and 165 with diagnosis before 40 years of age), we identified 26 families with a history of breast cancer, including a minimum of three first- or second-degree relatives. Complete pedigrees with verified malignancy data from the Finnish cancer registry were constructed for 22 families. The median age at breast cancer diagnosis of the young probands (< 40 years of age) was 35 years and of bilateral probands was 54 years. The relatives of the young probands were diagnosed with breast cancer at a younger age (median age 54 years) than the relatives of the older (bilateral) probands (median age 60 years). Standard life-table methods were used to compare the risk of breast cancer in the family members with that of the general population. Among the relatives of the young probands, the increased breast cancer risk occurred in the early post-menopausal period, whereas the risk estimate for the relatives of the bilateral probands closely followed that of the general population. In both groups, however, those family members reaching the age of 80 years had a cumulative probability of over 50% of developing breast cancer. The standard life-table method proved useful when assessing the age-specific risk for familial breast cancer, taking into account numerous family members as well as their age at disease onset. This kind of analysis can be performed in populations for which reliable cancer registry data are available. It provides a useful tool for selecting individuals for imaging and mutation screening, counselling and experimental chemoprevention programmes.

Adult↗

PubMed1987

Use of second-look laparotomy in the management of patients with ovarian epithelial malignancies.

Between June 1976 and January 1986, 94 evaluable patients with stage I-IV disease underwent second-look laparotomy as part of their treatment for ovarian epithelial carcinomas. Stage and residual tumor size after initial debulking surgery demonstrated a significant association with absence of disease at reexploration. Forty-nine patients (52%) had no evidence of disease at second-look laparotomy. Thirty patients (32%) had macroscopic residual tumor, and 15 patients (16%) had microscopic disease at reexploration. Patients with a negative second-look laparotomy had an excellent prognosis; uncorrected 2- and 5-year survival rates exceed 90%. None of the patients with stage I or II disease developed recurrent tumor after a negative second-look laparotomy. However, 7 of the 25 (28%) patients with stage III disease and a negative second-look have demonstrated recurrent carcinomas. Recurrences were documented from 15.4 to 51.7 months after second-look laparotomy and were located within the abdominal cavity. Life table methods demonstrated improved survival for patients with microscopic disease as compared to those with gross tumor at second-look survey. Both groups had similar mean patient ages and tumor stage distributions. Patients with microscopic residual disease had uncorrected 2- and 5-year survival rates of 76 and 64%. The 2-year uncorrected survival rate for patients with gross tumor at second-look laparotomy was 25%. Thirty patients with macroscopic disease at second-look laparotomy underwent a repeat attempt at tumor debulking. Seventeen patients completed second-look surgery with residual disease less than 1 cm in maximum dimensions. Life table methods demonstrated improved survival when residual disease was less than 1 cm. Regardless of residual tumor size after reexploration, patients with gross tumor had a worse survival than those with microscopic disease.

Adult↗

PubMed1998

The natural history of asymptomatic moderate internal carotid artery stenosis by duplex ultrasound.

The purpose of this study was to determine the rate of progression of the degree of carotid stenosis and to determine the risk of continued observation in a group of asymptomatic patients with moderate stenosis of at least one internal carotid artery. Between 1989 and 1994, 2130 patients were found to have 60-79% stenosis of at least one internal carotid artery following a duplex ultrasound examination in the authors' vascular laboratory. Of these, 465 patients (255 men, 210 women) were asymptomatic and had more than one ultrasound examination, and they form the basis of this retrospective review. The mean +/- SD age was 68.8 +/- 9.0 years. The mean +/- SD number of ultrasound examinations was 3.1 +/- 1.4 (range 2-11). The mean +/- SD follow-up was 24.4 +/- 17.6 months (range 2-79 months). Over the period of follow-up 72 patients (15.5%) progressed to 80-99% stenosis (n = 71) or to occlusion (n = 1). The estimated percentage of patients who progressed by life table methods were 5 +/- 1% at 1 year, 11 +/- 2% at 2 years and 20 +/- 3% at 3 years. There was no statistically significant difference in the rate of progression in men compared with women. Twenty-one patients had a late ipsilateral TIA or stroke. Five out of 72 patients (6.9%) who progressed had a late ipsilateral TIA compared with nine out of 393 patients (2.3%) who did not progress (estimated risk ratio 16.1, P = 0.0001). Four out of 72 patients (5.6%) who progressed had a late ipsilateral stroke compared with three out of 393 patients (0.76%) who did not progress (estimated risk ratio 23.6, p = 0.0002). The cumulative ipsilateral stroke rate using life table methods was 0.22% at 1 year, 1% at 2 years and 2.4% at 3 years. In a large cohort of asymptomatic patients, the frequency of progression of 60-79% internal carotid artery stenosis was 5% at 1 year, 11% at 2 years and 20% at 3 years. Patients who progressed were more likely to have symptoms, but the rate of unheralded stroke was relatively low over a 3-year time period. Surveillance carotid ultrasound examinations should be performed in patients with moderate carotid stenosis. Because of the lack of clear benefit, carotid endarterectomy for asymptomatic 60-79% internal carotid artery stenosis cannot be justified.

Aged↗

PubMed1992

[Analysis of chronic excretors of Mycobacterium bacilli in Aichi Prefecture].

Among the patients diagnosed as having pulmonary tuberculosis who were newly admitted to six major tuberculosis centers in Aichi Prefecture during the period from January 1, 1982 to December 31, 1986, 73 patients were chronic excretors of Mycobacterium bacilli (chronics), whose sputum cultures tested positive at both 11 and 12 months after admission. In this study, those 73 patients were analyzed in March 1988. If the patient was still hospitalized at that time, the patient was re-evaluated six months later. The life table method was used for analysis of clinical procedures. For the analysis of risk factors for chronics, 37 patients who were treated after 1971 when RFP was available for treatment were used. The results in this study are as follows: 1. A total of 49.3% of the patients were determined chronics (those who had initial chemotherapy before 1970 when RFP was not available). This result suggests that the use of RFP may contribute to the reduction of chronics. 2. Patient delay in diagnosis, as well as irregular chemotherapy, was one of the factors for the development of chronics. 3. In the chronics, many patients showed severe findings in their chest X-rays, high bacillary counts in the sputum, and low drug-sensitivity bacilli when treated with the major anti-tuberculosis drugs. 4. The rate of chronics from newly admitted patients with positive sputum cultures following the initial chemotherapy treatment was 1.3%. This rate could increase following longer observation periods. 5. Chronics were more prevalent in patients with Type I (extensive cavitary type) findings in the chest X-rays, and positive sputum smears for Mycobacterium bacilli in the clinical findings when compared with all newly registered active tuberculosis patients during the same period in Aichi Prefecture. 6. Concerning the outcome, 55 patients were discharged (17 improved; 13 personally released; 25 deceased) while 18 remain hospitalized. Among those discharged patients, 17 patients were released as a result in improved health while 25 died. These results indicate poor prognosis. Using the life table method, the estimated mortality rate is 49.7%, and the negative sputum rate is 30.5% five years later. 7. Using a multivariate analysis on the prognosis, the risk factor was greatest for poor prognosis for those patients who had Type I findings in their chest X-rays, initial chemotherapy before 1970, complications, and that were male. 8. The patients with improved health, were more sensitive to the drugs applied when compared to the fatal patients. 9. Careful chemotherapy during the first two years may contribute to the reduction of chronics.

Adult↗

PubMed1994

Long-term outcome for 120 Japanese patients with Takayasu's disease. Clinical and statistical analyses of related prognostic factors.

BACKGROUND: Patients with Takayasu's disease, a chronic inflammatory arteriopathy of unknown cause, have variable clinical courses, and predictors of the long-term outcome are not well understood. We studied prognostic factors of this disease, based on follow-up results, and a new prognostic classification was proposed. METHODS AND RESULTS: Life-table methods and Cox regression analyses were applied to clinical data on 120 patients who had been prospectively followed for a median of 13 years (range, 1 month to 34 years). The overall survival rate at 15 years after the diagnosis was 82.9% and remained the same for the remainder of the follow-up period. Univariate Cox analyses revealed that of the six dichotomous variables evaluated at diagnosis, four were statistically significant predictors, including complications (Takayasu's retinopathy, hypertension, aortic regurgitation, and aneurysm), pattern of the past clinical course, age of the patient, and calendar year of diagnosis. Thus, the 15-year survival was 66.3% versus 96.4% for patients with and without a major complication, 67.9% versus 92.9% for patients with and without a progressive course, 58.3% versus 92.7% for age > 35 years and < or = 35 years, and 79.9% versus 96.5% for patients diagnosed in 1957 through 1975 and in 1976 through 1990, respectively. The delay in diagnosis and the erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) were of marginal significance. The multivariate Cox analysis showed that only two of the above variables were statistically independent predictors, ie, the major complication and the progressive course. In addition to these two factors, ESR was the third predictor, if the Cox stepwise elimination procedure was performed. These three predictors used in various combinations made a total of 1822 classifications theoretically feasible. Of these, a three-stage classification was selected as the best one, based on the Akaike information criterion. The presence of both major complication and progressive course (stage 3) was the worst prognostic indicator (43% survival at 15 years). In contrast, no patient died who had neither of these manifestations or who had a progressive course but an elevated ESR as well (stage 1). CONCLUSIONS: The long-term outcome for patients with Takayasu's disease seems best predicted by two major prognostic factors, ie, complications and the pattern of the past clinical course, as well as by ESR. Aggressive medical and surgical treatment may be considered for patients with a major complication and a progressive course (stage 3).

Adolescent↗

PubMed1998

Invasive cancer after treatment of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia.

This review discusses the risk of invasive cancer following treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN). The emphasis is on methods in current use and the risks are calculated with life table methods. Large, long-term follow up studies which use life table analysis show clearly that invasive recurrences continue to appear at a relatively steady rate for at least 8 years after treatment for CIN. The risk remains 4 to 5 times greater than in the background population throughout this period. It would seem prudent to continue to offer these women increased surveillance with annual smears during this time of increased risk. All modern methods of outpatient treatment are highly effective in preventing invasive cancer of the cervix if they are used skillfully with an understanding of the disease being treated. The thoughtless use of beguilingly easy methods will lead only to disaster.

Cervix Uteri↗

PubMed2003

Health, life expectancy, and health care spending among the elderly.

BACKGROUND: Life expectancy among the elderly has been improving for many decades, and there is evidence that health among the elderly is also improving. We estimated the relation of health status at 70 years of age to life expectancy and to cumulative health care expenditures from the age of 70 until death. METHODS: Using the 1992-1998 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, we classified persons' health according to functional status and whether or not they were institutionalized and according to self-reported health. We used multistate life-table methods and microsimulation to estimate life expectancy for persons in various states of health. We linked annual health care expenditures with transitions between health states. RESULTS: Elderly persons in better health had a longer life expectancy than those in poorer health but had similar cumulative health care expenditures until death. A person with no functional limitation at 70 years of age had a life expectancy of 14.3 years and expected cumulative health care expenditures of about 136,000 dollars (in 1998 dollars); a person with a limitation in at least one activity of daily living had a life expectancy of 11.6 years and expected cumulative expenditures of about 145,000 dollars. Expenditures varied little according to self-reported health at the age of 70. Persons who were institutionalized at the age of 70 had cumulative expenditures that were much higher than those for persons who were not institutionalized. CONCLUSIONS: The expected cumulative health expenditures for healthier elderly persons, despite their greater longevity, were similar to those for less healthy persons. Health-promotion efforts aimed at persons under 65 years of age may improve the health and longevity of the elderly without increasing health expenditures.

Activities of Daily Living↗

PubMed1980

Second malignancies in Hodgkin's disease: a complication of certain forms of treatment.

A total of 764 patients with Hodgkin's disease treated with radiotherapy (RT) or chemotherapy or both were reviewed 3-186 months (median 43 months) after initial treatment to assess the incidence of second malignancies. Incidence of solid tumours and acute non-lymphoblastic leukaemia (ANLL) were calculated by a life-table method and percentages of patients affected derived from life-table plots. Within 10 years after initial treatment the overall incidence of second solid tumours was 7.3%, and over a comparable period 2.4% of patients developed ANLL. Solid tumours occurred only in patients given RT with or without adjuvant chemotherapy, and ANLL occurred only after treatment with MOPP (mustine, vincristine, procarbazine, and prednisolone) or modified MOPP regimens. Neither solid tumours nor ANLL occurred in patients given ABVD (adriamycin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine). The highest incidence of leukaemia (5.4%) occurred after treatment with extensive RT plus (5.4%) occurred after treatment with extensive RT plus MOPP; hence the benefits of this approach in Hodgkin's disease must be weighed against its carcinogenic potential.

Adult↗