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At least 127 records · Page 7Linked to original sources
PubMed1988

The use of sigmoids in modelling and forecasting human populations.

"The aim of this paper is to present a review that might justify giving further consideration to the use of sigmoids in contemporary population modelling and forecasting. To do this a brief account is given of the historical development of these models, pointing out why demographers have viewed these trend models with scepticism. Most of the paper is devoted to showing that, despite these criticisms, sigmoid-based trend models are useful practical tools for the demographer." Examples using data for various countries are presented.

Demography↗
PubMed1992

An overview of demographic analysis as a method for evaluating census coverage in the United States.

"Since the 1950 U.S. census, demographic methods based on the fundamental balancing equation of demography have played an important role in the evaluation of the census net undercount. Application of this set of methods, called demographic analysis, results in national estimates of the net undercount for age-race-sex groups. Although results of demographic analysis are readily available in Bureau of the Census publications, the procedures used to estimate each of the components of population change are less well-known. In this paper we review the historical foundation of demographic analysis, beginning with Coale's 1950 census evaluation project and concluding with the recent evaluation of the 1990 census. We examine each of the components of the method, how their estimation has changed over time, and how they were estimated for the 1990 census."

Americas↗
PubMed1988

Determinants of short-term fluctuations in nuptiality in Sweden, 1751-1913: application of multivariate ARIMA models.

"This study examines the determinants of short-term fluctuations in nuptiality in Sweden from 1751 to 1913, using ARIMA [Auto Regressive Integrated Moving-Average] models.... The following general patterns prevailed throughout the period 1751-1913: both better economic conditions (good harvests and lower rye prices) and higher mortality (leading to more remarriages, and enabling first marriages through inheritance) were followed by higher nuptiality. In addition, emigration of single persons after 1850 was inversely related to nuptiality." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Agriculture↗
PubMed2002

A brief history of R0 and a recipe for its calculation.

In this paper I present the genesis of R0 in demography, ecology and epidemiology, from embryo to its current adult form. I argue on why it has taken so long for the concept to mature in epidemiology when there were ample opportunities for cross-fertilisation from demography and ecology from where it reached adulthood fifty years earlier. Today, R0 is a more fully developed adult in epidemiology than in demography. In the final section I give an algorithm for its calculation in heterogeneous populations.

Animals↗
PubMed1998

The role of contraceptive supply and demand in Mexican fertility decline: evidence from a microdemographic study.

This paper uses retrospective life history data to assess the impact of family planning services on contraceptive use in a rural Mexican township. Between 1960 and 1990 contraceptive use rose and fertility declined dramatically. Both contraceptive supply and demand factors were influential in these trends. The start of the government-sponsored family planning programme in the late 1970s was associated with a sharp rise in female sterilization and use of the IUD. However, once we controlled for the changing socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the sample, the presence of family planning services had no significant effect on the likelihood that women used modern reversible methods compared to traditional methods. Men and women expressed concerns about the safety of modern methods such as the pill and the IUD. Efforts to increase modern contraceptive use should place greater emphasis on communicating the safety of these methods and improving the quality of services.

Contraceptive Devices↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Determination of ages of elderly Nigerians through historical events: validation of Ajayi-Igun 1963 listing.

We compared ages of 59 elderly Nigerians subjects determined independently by records and historical events to validate the Ajayi-Igun listing of 1963. There was no statistically difference between the mean ages of the subjects as determined by the 2 methods (p > 0.05). In almost 50% of the subjects, the ages were exactly the same by both methods and in 93.2%, the difference in ages was 3 years. There was a high significant correlation between the two methods of age determination (Spearman correlation coefficient rs = 0.989, p < 10(-5)). Our study validate the use of historical listing for accurate age determination in Nigerians and its use is advocated for epidemiologic studies and other demographic needs in circumstances where written records of births are lacking.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1990

Modeling the prehistoric Maori population.

Skeletal and comparative evidence of mortality is combined with fertility estimates for the precontact Maori population of New Zealand to determine the implied rate of precontact population growth. This rate is found to be too low to populate New Zealand within the time constraints of its prehistoric sequence, the probable founding population size, and the probable population size at contact. Rates of growth necessary to populate New Zealand within the accepted time span are calculated. The differences between this minimum necessary rate and the skeletally derived rate are too large to result solely from inadequacies in the primary data. Four alternative explanations of this conundrum are proposed: 1) skeletal evidence of precontact mortality is highly inaccurate; 2) skeletal evidence of fertility is severely underestimating actual levels; 3) there was very rapid population growth in the earliest part of the sequence up to 1150 A.D., from which no skeletal evidence currently is available; or 4) the prehistoric sequence of New Zealand may have been longer than the generally accepted 1,000-1,200 years. These alternatives are examined, and a combination of the last two is found to be the most probable. The implications of this model for New Zealand prehistory and Oceanic paleodemography are discussed.

Fertility↗
PubMed1992

Suicide and fertility: a study of moral statistics.

This paper was originally published in French in 1988 and was written by the sociologist E. Durkheim. In the forward by John Simons, it is noted that in this article the author "claims to demonstrate an inverse relationship between the suicide rate and the birth rate for the Departements of France, and to explain why this relationship was to be expected." The data concern the period 1801-1869.

Birth Rate↗
PubMed1990

[Epidemiologic study of persons having group 2 insurance in Denmark. 1. Historical development, social and demographic differences between health insurance groups 1 and 2].

The majority of adults in Denmark can choose between the forms of health insurance 1 and 2. Persons insured in Group 2, on payment of a premium, obtain certain perquisites as compared with Group 1, primarily they may consult general practitioners and specialists of their own choice. Since the introduction of the Health Insurance Law in 1976, the number of persons insured in Group 2 has decreased to 3.8% of those insured in 1988. More than 3/4 of these have been insured in Group 2 since 1976. The number of new group 2 insured persons has remained relatively stable at about 3,000 persons per annum. The average age in Group 2 is 58.3 years as compared with 45.0 years in Group 1. 60% live in the region of the capital. The number of economically and socially well established persons in Group 2 is markedly higher than in Group 1, particularly in the higher age groups where the mortality in Group 2 insured persons is considerably lower than in Group 1 insured persons.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1993

[The identification of causes of death in preindustrial Europe: some historiographical considerations].

"This article deals with some of the historiographical issues raised by the study of the causes of death in the past. It is focused upon the medical causes of death, particularly infectious diseases.... The ways of facing the question of the causes of death in pre-industrial Europe...are examined in contrast to those ways peculiar to modern Europe. Three topics are successively dealt with, first, the process of 'medicalisation' of death; secondly, diseases as causes of death, and the nosological systems; and thirdly, the diagnosis of the causes of death." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE)

Cause of Death↗