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PubMed1994

The 1-month outcome of patients with a low probability Technegas ventilation/perfusion lung scan.

The objective was to study the 1-month outcome of patients who had a low probability ventilation/perfusion lung scan using Technegas radioaerosol as the inhalational agent and who did not receive anticoagulation. One hundred consecutive patients with suspected pulmonary embolism were studied retrospectively. Their Technegas lung scans were classified by two blinded and independent nuclear medicine physicians and the medical records of all patients with a low probability scan were reviewed. One hundred inpatients (42 males and 58 females) with a mean age of 63 years were studied. The three most common clinical presentations leading to lung scintigraphy were unexplained dyspnoea (30 cases), unexplained dyspnoea with pleuritic chest pain (26 cases) and pleuritic chest pain only (15 cases). Nine patients had been judged by their managing medical team to have a high clinical probability of true pulmonary embolism, 32 had an intermediate probability clinical presentation and 59 a low clinical probability of pulmonary embolism. None of the 100 patients experienced further episodes of suspected or proven pulmonary embolism during the follow-up period. Six patients died. In none of them was pulmonary embolism either the cause of or a major contributing factor to death. The finding of a low probability scan using Technegas as the ventilation scintigram agent of choice describes a group of patients who, even in the absence of therapeutic anticoagulation, have a favourable 1-month outcome free of either true or suspected clinical pulmonary embolism. Invasive, pulmonary angiography-based diagnostic strategies may not be needed in this group of patients.

Female↗

PubMed1975

The prior probability of autosomal linkage.

An expression is derived for the prior probability of linkage between a random trait locus and any one of m random marker loci, and this probability is computed form=1, 10, 20, 30, 50 and 100. A similar expression is derived for two trait loci, and computed for m=1, 10, 20 and 30. When one trait locus and 30 marker loci are being studied, a priori there is over a three-quarter probability that the trait locus should be syntenic with at least one of the markers, and about a one-half probability that there should be a linkage mappable from recombination frequencies. If two traits are studied, then the prior probability that at least one should be syntenic with one of the 30 markers is 0-94, and there is a three-quarter probability that such a linkage should be mappable.

Chromosome Mapping↗

PubMed1997

On the effect of probability distributions of input variables in public health risk assessment.

A central part of probabilistic public health risk assessment is the selection of probability distributions for the uncertain input variables. In this paper, we apply the first-order reliability method (FORM) as a probabilistic tool to assess the effect of probability distributions of the input random variables on the probability that risk exceeds a threshold level (termed the probability of failure) and on the relevant probabilistic sensitivities. The analysis was applied to a case study given by Thompson et al. on cancer risk caused by the ingestion of benzene contaminated soil. Normal, lognormal, and uniform distributions were used in the analysis. The results show that the selection of a probability distribution function for the uncertain variables in this case study had a moderate impact on the probability that values would fall above a given threshold risk when the threshold risk is at the 50th percentile of the original distribution given by Thompson et al. The impact was much greater when the threshold risk level was at the 95th percentile. The impact on uncertainty sensitivity, however, showed a reversed trend, where the impact was more appreciable for the 50th percentile of the original distribution of risk given by Thompson et al. than for the 95th percentile. Nevertheless, the choice of distribution shape did not alter the order of probabilistic sensitivity of the basic uncertain variables.

Benzene↗

PubMed1994

The probability of defibrillation success and the incidence of postshock arrhythmia as a function of shock strength.

The effects of high voltage defibrillation shocks given to six swine were studied to determine if there is a limit to the advantage gained from increasing the shock strength. An endocardial electrode was placed in the right ventricle, and a 114-cm2 cutaneous patch was placed on the left lateral thorax. Monophasic (10 msec) and single capacitor biphasic (5/5 msec) shocks with leading edge voltages of 200, 400, 600, 800, and 990 volts (approximately 2.3-59 J) were tested. For monophasic shocks, the probability of successful defibrillation ranged from 0% at 200 V to 90% at 990 V. The incidence of postshock arrhythmia increased from 0% for successful shocks at 600 V to 67% for successful shocks at 990 V. For biphasic shocks, the probability of success peaked at 97% for the 600-, 800-, and 990-V shocks. The incidence of postshock arrhythmia increased from 8% at 400 V to 55% at 990 V. Although more postshock arrhythmias occurred at lower strengths for biphasic than for monophasic shocks, an efficacy criterion, quantifying the probability of defibrillation success and the probability that a postshock arrhythmia will not occur, was always higher for biphasic shocks. The probability of success never reached 100% for either waveform while the incidence of postshock arrhythmia increased as the shock strength increased. In conclusion, for the catheter-patch electrode configuration, increasing the shock strength does not always improve the probability of success and may increase the incidence of postshock arrhythmia.

Animals↗

PubMed1980

Application of conditional probability analysis to the clinical diagnosis of coronary artery disease.

Analysis of multiple noninvasive tests offers the promise of more accurate diagnosis of coronary artery disease, but discordant test responses can occur frequently and, when observed, result in diagnostic uncertainty. Accordingly, 43 patients undergoing diagnostic coronary angiography were evaluated by noninvasive testing and the results subjected to analysis using Bayes' theorem of conditional probability. The procedures used included electrocardiographic stress testing for detection of exercise-induced ST segment depression, cardiokymographic stress testing for detection of exercise-induced precordial dyskinesis, myocardial perfusion scintigraphy for detection of exercise-induced relative regional hypoperfusion, and cardiac fluoroscopy for detection of coronary artery calcification. The probability for coronary artery disease was estimated by Bayes' theorem from each patient's age, sex, and symptom classification, and from the observed test responses. This analysis revealed a significant linear correlation between the predicted probability for coronary artery disease and the observed prevalence of angiographic disease over the entire range of probability from 0 to 100% (P less than 0.001 by linear regression). The 12 patients without angiographic disease had a mean posttest likelihood of only 7.0 +/- 2.6% despite the fact that 13 of the 60 historical and test responses were falsely "positive." In contrast, the mean posttest likelihood was 94.1 +/- 2.8% in the 31 patients with angiographic coronary artery disease, although 45 of the 155 historical and test responses were falsely "negative." In 8 of the 12 normal patients, the final posttest likelihood was under 10% and in 26 of the 31 coronary artery disease patients, it was over 90%. These estimates also correlated well with the pooled clinical judgment of five experienced cardiologists (P less than 0.001 by linear regression). The observed change in probability for disease for each of the 15 different test combinations correlated with their information content predicted according to Shannon's theorem (P less than 0.001 by linear regression). These results support the use of probability analysis in the clinical diagnosis of coronary artery disease and provide a formal basis for comparing the relative diagnostic effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different test combinations.

Adult↗

PubMedDate not supplied

The reliability of probability analysis in the prediction of coronary artery disease in two hospitals.

To assess the accuracy of the Bayesian computer program CADENZA for the prediction of coronary artery disease, the authors examined the probabilities generated by the application of this program to the clinical and noninvasive test results of 303 patients in a private referral center and 199 patients in a veterans' hospital. These probabilities were compared with those produced by applying a six-variable discriminant function derived by logistic regression at the private referral center. Two statistical approaches were employed in evaluating the relative performances of the Bayesian program and the discriminant function. The first of these involved the sorting of patients in both test groups into ascending deciles of probability and comparing expected probability with observed angiographic disease prevalence in each decile. The second involved the calculation and comparison of a standardized reliability measure. The latter was significantly lower for the discriminant function both at the private hospital (0.200 for the discriminant function versus -17.5 +/- 1.96 for the Bayesian program) and at the veterans' hospital (-0.8 +/- 1.96 for the discriminant function versus -11.3 for Bayesian program). This suggests that the discriminant function is significantly superior to the Bayesian algorithm CADENZA for predicting coronary artery disease probabilities in subjects who have relatively high pretest disease probabilities.

Bayes Theorem↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Clinical assessment of the probability of coronary artery disease: judgmental bias from personal knowledge.

Probability estimates of angiographic coronary artery disease made by experienced, board-certified staff cardiologists were compared with those of cardiologists in training (fellows). In addition, estimates made before coronary angiography were compared with those made several months later based on written clinical summaries of 15 items of objective clinical and test data. Cardiologists were asked to estimate the probabilities of coronary artery disease, multivessel disease, and triple-vessel or left main disease. The study population consisted of 510 consecutive patients without valvular disease referred for the first time for coronary angiography to three hospitals. Both staff and fellows consistently overestimated the pre-angiographic probability of coronary artery disease. The probabilities estimated from patient summaries were always significantly lower than the pre-angiographic assessments. Only staff cardiologists reliably assessed the probabilities of coronary artery disease during the second assessment (p less than 0.05). Thus, estimates of disease probability based on clinical judgment vary according to the source of information, and these estimates are more accurate when physicians have objective data on hand and do not know the identities of the patients.

Coronary Angiography↗

PubMed1998

Expert panel assessment of appropriateness of abdominal aortic aneurysm surgery: global judgement versus probability estimation.

OBJECTIVE: To compare an expert panel's global assessment of appropriateness of elective surgery for abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) with their assessment of the effect of surgery on the probability of 5-year mortality. METHODS: Nine expert panel members rated the appropriateness of 120 scenarios for elective AAA repair on a nine-point scale, and also estimated the 5-year probability of AAA-related death and of non-AAA related death among 30-day survivors of AAA surgery and among patients with unoperated AAA. These probabilities were used to determine differences in 5-year probability of mortality of surgery vs. no surgery for each scenario. Three categories of appropriateness were defined based on these differences: inappropriate (< 0%), equivocal (0-5%), and appropriate (> 5%). RESULTS: The distribution of scenarios was inappropriate (39%), equivocal (12%), and appropriate (49%) based on probability estimates and inappropriate (43%), equivocal (22%), and appropriate (36%) based on global assessment. There was poor agreement between the two methods, with a Kappa coefficient = 0.28 (95% CI: 0.23 to 0.32). Although a higher proportion of scenarios were rated as appropriate using probability estimation rather than global judgment, the level of agreement among members of the panel was similar, Kappa coefficient = 0.07 (95% CI: -0.07 to 0.72). CONCLUSIONS: Experts disagree about the appropriate indications for elective surgery for AAA. Explicit estimates used in a decision analysis may provide a better assessment of appropriate indications than the global judgment of experts. Global assessment of the appropriateness of AAA surgery based on panel members' review of research evidence for increased survival appears to include implicitly their valuation of outcomes.

Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal↗

PubMed1989

Developmental change in subjective probability during adolescence.

The developmental change in subjective probability during adolescence, an important period for establishing the probability concept, was investigated. 75 Japanese adolescents, from 12 to 23 yr. of age, were asked to make probability judgments for a lottery under 15 conditions. Analysis showed that with increase in age their subjective probability came closer to the objective probability. Discussion of these results took into consideration recent studies on the development of the concept of probability.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1991

[The initial clinical probability in the diagnosis of the hospitalized pediatric patient].

OBJECTIVES: 1. To determine the degree of correlation among different physicians concerning their initial diagnosis and 2. identify the degree of correlation between the probability that physicians assing an initial diagnosis and the number of days the patient is hospitalized, laboratory test and X-rays taken of the patient. DESIGN: A comparative questionnaire. STUDY SITE: Pediatric hospitalization Unit of a third level medical care ward of the Mexican Social Security Institute. STUDY UNITS: All new admissions or non-programmed readmitted patients to the hospital during the months of November and December 1990. MAIN MEASUREMENTS: The treating physicians (Staff pediatricians (MB) and third (R3) and second (R2) year residents) were each asked to independently assign a probability (0 to 100) to each of the diagnosis emitted on the day the patient was admitted. When the patient was discharged, the number of days hospitalized as well as the number of laboratory tests and X-rays taken of the patient were added. RESULTS: 106 patients were evaluated, a correlation was gathered between MBs and R3s of 0.79 (P less than 0.001) and among MBs and R2s of 0.83 (P less than 0.001). The correlation between resident physicians was discretely less 0.60 (P less than 0.01). When relating the probability assigned by the physicians and the number of days the patients were hospitalized, associations were observed of 0.31 (P less than 0.05), 0.15 (P less than 0.05) and 0.19 (P = 0.04) for the MB, R3 and R2s respectively. In the case of laboratory test a correlation of 0.38, 0.06 and 0.04 (MB, R3, R2 respectively) was found. None of these correlations were statistically significant. The X-rays showed a significant correlation in cases of the MBs (0.50, P less than 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The probabilities assigned by the staff physician as well as the resident doctors are closely related and a lesser grade of association is seen when comparing the residents among each other. No tendencies were identified in the correlation of the probability assigned by the residents and the variables analyzed. A consistent relation was seen between the staff physician and high probabilities, longer stays, and greater number of laboratory tests and X-rays.

Adult↗

PubMed1990

An application of probability theory to a group of breath-alcohol and blood-alcohol data.

Many jurisdictions have "per se" driving-while-intoxicated (DWI) status expressed in terms of a blood-alcohol concentration (BAC) standard (in grams per 100 mL or the equivalent). Since breath-alcohol (BrAC) analysis is typically employed to determine BAC, there is often challenge to the use of an assumed 2100:1 conversion ratio. This concern may be relevant in light of considerable data that show a low percentage of cases in which BrAC greater than BAC, and this concern increases when the BrAC is used to predict BAC in the context of "per se" legislation. Probability theory provides a basis for estimating the likelihood of an individual having a BrAC greater than or equal to g/210 L with a corresponding BAC less than 0.10 g/100 mL. Actual field data from the state of Wisconsin (n = 404) were evaluated to determine the probability of this occurrence. The probability for this occurrence involves the multiplication law for independent events. The computed probability from the data was 0.018. The actual number of occurrences where BrAC greater than or equal to 0.10 g/210 L and BAC less than 0.10 g/100 mL was 5, resulting in a probability of 0.012. The concern of having BrAC greater than BAC at the critical "per se" level has a very low probability of occurrence, which thus supports the reasonableness of "per se" DWI legislation based upon a blood-alcohol standard determined by breath-alcohol analysis.

Alcoholic Intoxication↗

PubMed1989

[Variable cycle avoidance program: systematic variation of the probability of a programmed noxious stimulus].

Six albino rats were exposed in three groups to different values of T (a repetitive time cycle at the end of which an electric shock occurs with a specified probability in absence of a first response), (V.g.: P(E-/R) = .75 and .10) on different weeks. When occurs at least one response on each T cycle it has a probability to delete the shock equal to P(E-/R) that changed on different weeks from .50 to .10. In this way, as the Bayesian probability system indicate for exclusive events, Pk = P(E-/R) - [P(E-/R) x P(E-/R)] was the effective probability of shocks when at least one response occur on each T cycle and Pm = P(E-/R) - [P(E-/R) x P(E-/R) x P(1rst Response)] is the modulated probability of shocks when a first response occur on some T cycles. The results indicated that T/Pk (the mean interval between shocks before the experimental session) nor T/Pm (The mean interval between shocks after the experimental session when the subject responds), or its inverse, are reductional continua that explains monotonically ordered changes of the response rate or the mean total number of responses. As a consequence T and P must be dissociated. On the other hand, corrected response rate (Total responses minus Total first responses/minute) is a direct and monotonically increased function of Pk and of 1/T. In this sense is the increased probability with which noxious stimuli impinge on the behavior stream and the time reduction between stimuli, that separated, sustain responding.

Animals↗

PubMed1978

Application of the response probability density function technique to biodynamic models.

A method has been developed, which we call the "response probability density function technique," which has applications in predicting the probability of injury in a wide range of biodynamic situations. The method, which was developed in connection with sonic boom damage prediction, utilized the probability density function of the excitation force and the probability density function of the sensitivity of the material being acted upon. The method is especially simple to use when both these probability density functions are lognormal. Studies thus far have shown that the stresses from sonic booms, as well as the strengths of glass and mortars, are distributed lognormally. Some biodynamic processes also have lognormal distributions and are, therefore, amenable to modeling by this technique. In particular, this paper discusses the application of the response probability density function technique to the analysis of the thoracic response to air blast and the prediction of skull fracture from head impact.

Animals↗

PubMed1984

[The step toward a specific diagnosis. Evaluation of the value of diagnostic methods in the individual case with special attention to probability].

The preliminary diagnosis based on the patient's history and the results of a physical examination, is considered to be the most probable one. In general, however, differential diagnoses with a smaller degree of probability must also be taken into account. This article shows how--making use of simple probability theory--an assessment can be made as to whether an available diagnostic instrument is capable of increasing the probability of a post-test diagnosis vis-a-vis the pre-test probability level. The terms sensitivity and specificity are explained with the aid of clinical examples, and the possibility of increasing the probability of the diagnosis by iteration is discussed.

Bayes Theorem↗

PubMed1995

Adolescents' misinterpretation of health risk probability expressions.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if differences exist between adolescents and physicians in their numerical translation of 13 commonly used probability expressions (eg, possibly, might). DESIGN: Cross-sectional. SETTING: Adolescent medicine and pediatric orthopedic outpatient units. PARTICIPANTS: 150 adolescents and 51 pediatricians, pediatric orthopedic surgeons, and nurses. MEASUREMENT: Numerical ratings of the degree of certainty implied by 13 probability expressions (eg, possibly, probably). RESULTS: Adolescents were significantly more likely than physicians to display comprehension errors, reversing or equating the meaning of terms such as probably/possibly and likely/possibly. Numerical expressions of uncertainty (eg, 30% chance) elicited less variability in ratings than lexical expressions of uncertainty (eg, possibly). CONCLUSION: Physicians should avoid using probability expressions such as probably, possibly, and likely when communicating health risks to children and adolescents. Numerical expressions of uncertainty may be more effective for conveying the likelihood of an illness than lexical expressions of uncertainty (eg, probably).

Adolescent↗

PubMed1994

Effect of adenosine-induced changes in presynaptic release probability on long-term potentiation in the hippocampal CA1 region.

In the present study some characteristics of long-term potentiation (LTP) in the hippocampal CA1 region were examined under different conditions of transmitter release. Adenosine A1 agonist/antagonists, or in some instances changes in the extracellular calcium/magnesium ratio, were used to alter release probability. The overall LTP time course (onset latency, growth phase, and subsequent decay for both the non-NMDA and NMDA receptor-mediated EPSPs) following a brief tetanus was essentially the same over an almost 10-fold variation in release probability (measured as change in field EPSP magnitude). The major difference observed was a faster initial decay of LTP evoked at low levels of release probability, possibly related to impaired induction conditions. It was also observed that LTP induced at one level of release probability occluded that induced at a lower (or higher) level, and that changes in release probability induced by adenosine agonist/antagonists affected potentiated and "naive" EPSPs to an equal extent. Taken together, these data do not provide support for the notion of different locations for LTP expression at different conditions of release probability. The results are also more compatible with the notion of a single, rather than several, expression mechanism(s) within the first hour of LTP in the hippocampal CA1 region.

Adenosine↗

PubMed1994

Diagnostic tests for deep vein thrombosis. Clinical usefulness depends on probability of disease.

We review the general principles that govern the clinical utility of diagnostic tests, particularly with respect to the diagnosis of deep vein thrombosis (DVT). We stress the importance of clinical probability of disease, which strongly influences the positive predictive value (true-positive rate) and negative predictive value (true-negative rate) of all diagnostic tests. In selecting a diagnostic procedure for DVT, the physician must first consider the clinical probability of disease and then the local accuracy of the test employed and its cost-effectiveness. In 75% to 80% of patients suspected to have DVT, clinical management can be based on the results of noninvasive tests, such as ultrasonography or impedance plethysmography (IPG), rather than venography. Ultrasonography has clear advantages over venography with respect to cost and patient comfort, and it defines the anatomic extent of the thrombus. It should be considered the new diagnostic standard for symptomatic DVT. Despite recent reports of lower sensitivity than previously reported, IPG remains an acceptable alternative to ultrasonography for symptomatic DVT in selected patients. Even if the recently reported lower sensitivity proves to be accurate, the probability of adverse clinical outcomes as a result of overlooked disease is still extremely low in patients with a low probability of DVT. The negative predictive value of IPG under these circumstances approaches 99%. Impedance plethysmography is also useful in patients with a high probability of DVT, in whom the positive predictive value may be as high as 97%. When the findings of IPG (or ultrasonography) are at variance with a strong clinical impression, venography should be considered, especially when there is a high clinical probability of disease and a negative noninvasive test result.

Bias↗

PubMed1993

Evaluation of standard error and confidence interval of estimated multilocus genotype probabilities, and their implications in DNA forensics.

Multilocus genotype probabilities, estimated using the assumption of independent association of alleles within and across loci, are subject to sampling fluctuation, since allele frequencies used in such computations are derived from samples drawn from a population. We derive exact sampling variances of estimated genotype probabilities and provide simple approximation of sampling variances. Computer simulations conducted using real DNA typing data indicate that, while the sampling distribution of estimated genotype probabilities is not symmetric around the point estimate, the confidence interval of estimated (single-locus or multilocus) genotype probabilities can be obtained from the sampling of a logarithmic transformation of the estimated values. This, in turn, allows an examination of heterogeneity of estimators derived from data on different reference populations. Applications of this theory to DNA typing data at VNTR loci suggest that use of different reference population data may yield significantly different estimates. However, significant differences generally occur with rare (less than 1 in 40,000) genotype probabilities. Conservative estimates of five-locus DNA profile probabilities are always less than 1 in 1 million in an individual from the United States, irrespective of the racial/ethnic origin.

Computer Simulation↗