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PubMed2002

[Primary and secondary prevention of arteriosclerosis. Risk stratification of hypertension].

Hypertension is one of the important risk factors in the pathogenesis of arteriosclerosis. The differences between primary and secondary prevention in diagnosis and therapeutic strategies are reviewed from international studies. The optimal therapy for hypertension and risk stratification, including all other risk factors, will reduce the incidence and mortality of coronary heart disease and stroke.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1997

Preoperative renal risk stratification.

BACKGROUND: After cardiac surgery, acute renal failure (ARF) requiring dialysis develops in 1% to 5% of patients and is strongly associated with perioperative morbidity and mortality. Prior studies have attempted to identify predictors of ARF but have had insufficient power to perform multivariable analyses or to develop risk stratification algorithms. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of 43 642 patients who underwent coronary artery bypass or valvular heart surgery in 43 Department of Veterans Affairs medical centers between April 1987 and March 1994. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictors of ARF requiring dialysis. A risk stratification algorithm derived from recursive partitioning was constructed and was validated on an independent sample of 3795 patients operated on between April and December 1994. The overall risk of ARF requiring dialysis was 1.1%. Thirty-day mortality in patients with ARF was 63.7%, compared with 4.3% in patients without ARF. Ten clinical variables related to baseline cardiovascular disease and renal function were independently associated with the risk of ARF. A risk stratification algorithm partitioned patients into low-risk (0.4%), medium-risk (0.9% to 2.8%), and high-risk (> or = 5.0%) groups on the basis of several of these factors and their interactions. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of ARF after cardiac surgery can be accurately quantified on the basis of readily available preoperative data. These findings may be used by physicians and surgeons to provide patients with improved risk estimates and to target high-risk subgroups for interventions aimed at reducing the risk and ameliorating the consequences of this serious complication.

Acute Kidney Injury↗

PubMed1997

Risk stratification after myocardial infarction. A reappraisal in the era of thrombolysis. The Groupe d'Etude du Pronostic de l'Infarctus du Myocarde (GREPI)

OBJECTIVES: The present study was performed to evaluate whether the modalities of risk stratification after myocardial infarction were still operative in the thrombolytic era. BACKGROUND: Prediction of fatal events in the aftermath of myocardial infarction relies on tests which aim to assess myocardial function, residual ischaemia and propensity for ventricular arrhythmias. Recent data on improved myocardial infarction prognosis have led to the view that risk stratification needs to be updated. METHODS: In this multicentre, prospective study, 471 acute myocardial infarction patients, 45% of whom were given thrombolytic therapy, were enrolled from the 10th day and underwent all or part of the following tests exercise test, radionuclide ventriculography (resting and exertional ejection fraction). Holter monitoring, signal-averaged electrocardiography and programmed electrical stimulation. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify predictors of mortality. RESULTS: One year and long-term (mean follow-up 31.4 months) mortality rates were 5.5% and 8.4%, respectively. Prediction of mortality was assessed and the role of the following variables was thus determined: age over 56 years (P = 0.01), previous coronary attacks (P < 0.001), history of heart failure (P < 0.001), early heart failure after myocardial infarction (P = 0.017), maximum workload of lest than 120 W at exercise test (P = 0.014), ineligibility to perform exercise (P = 0.002), depressed left ventricular ejection fraction (P = 0.013), late potentials as identified using 50 Hz high pass filtering (P = 0.012), mean night-time cycle length of less than 750 ms (P < 0.001), standard deviation of day time RR intervals of less than 100 ms (P = 0.04), the last two measures reflecting heart rate variability. In this population, neither ventricular ectopic activity nor inducibility of sustained monomorphic ventricular tachycardia at electrophysiological study carried any prognostic significance. Multivariate analyses showed that decreased heart rate variability, presence of late potentials and low ejection fraction (< 30%) made an independent contribution to the survival models. CONCLUSION: In the current context of management of acute coronary patients, the basis for risk stratification after myocardial infarction remain roughly unchanged.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

[Practice based evaluation and risk stratification of arterial hypertension. Focus on ECG].

Risk stratification and treatment decision of arterial hypertension is influenced by blood pressure grade, concomitant cardiovascular risk factors, associated clinical conditions and the presence of target organ damage. The general practitioner can completely evaluate many patients without referring them for special investigations. ECG is among the routine practice methods. The sensitivity in detecting left ventricular hypertrophy is low but the specificity is very high. The new ECG parameter Cornell Strain Index with higher sensitivity is presented.

Adult↗

PubMed2003

An evaluation of existing risk stratification models as a tool for comparison of surgical performances for coronary artery bypass grafting between institutions.

OBJECTIVE: Risk stratification systems are used in cardiac surgery to estimate mortality risk for individual patients and to compare surgical performance between institutions or surgeons. This study investigates the suitability of six existing risk stratification systems for these purposes. METHODS: Data on 5471 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting at two UK cardiac centres between 1993 and 1999 were extracted from a prospective computerised clinical data base. Of these patients, 184 (3.3%) died in hospital. In-hospital mortality risk scores were calculated for each patient using the Parsonnet score, the EuroSCORE, the ACC/AHA score and three UK Bayes models (old, new complex and new simple). The accuracy for predicting mortality at an institutional level was assessed by comparing total observed and predicted mortality. The accuracy of the risk scores for predicting mortality for a patient was assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate how well a system ranks the patient with respect to their risk of mortality and can be useful for patient management. RESULTS: Both EuroSCORE and the simple Bayes model were reasonably accurate at predicting overall mortality. However predictive accuracy at the patient level was poor for all systems, although EuroSCORE was accurate for low to medium risk patients. Discrimination was fair with the following ROC areas: Parsonnet 0.73, EuroSCORE 0.76, ACC/AHA system 0.76, old Bayes 0.77, complex Bayes 0.76, simple Bayes 0.76. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that two of the scores may be useful in comparing institutions. None of the risk scores provide accurate risk estimates for individual patients in the two hospitals studied although EuroSCORE may have some utility for certain patients. All six systems perform moderately at ranking the patients and so may be useful for patient management. More results are needed from other institutions to confirm that the EuroSCORE and the simple Bayes model are suitable for institutional risk-adjusted comparisons.

Bayes Theorem↗

PubMed2001

Use of risk stratification to identify patients with unstable angina likeliest to benefit from an invasive versus conservative management strategy.

OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to determine whether patient characteristics collected at presentation can identify which patients benefit from immediate coronary angiography and revascularization. BACKGROUND: Risk stratification may offer a method for identifying which patients with unstable angina or non-Q-wave myocardial infarction (NQMI) are likeliest to benefit from invasive management strategies. METHODS: The analysis was based on data from a randomized controlled trial that enrolled 1,473 patients presenting with unstable angina or NQMI who were randomly assigned to an early invasive or early conservative (medical) management strategy. We constructed a risk-stratification score for each patient based on adjusted odds ratios for clinical variables likely to predict adverse outcomes. We stratified all trial subjects by their risk scores and studied the rates of death or myocardial infarction (MI) of the early invasive management strategy in each stratum. RESULTS: The final multivariate model included older age, ST segment depression on presentation, history of complicated angina before presentation, and elevation in baseline creatine kinase-MB fraction. Although patients with a higher risk score had an increased rate of death or MI within 42 days and 365 days (p < 0.001) in both management strategies, early invasive management for patients in the high and very high risk categories was associated with a lower rate of death or MI within 42 days compared with conservative management. No such benefit was seen in patients in the larger group of patients in the very low, low or moderate risk categories (p = 0.03 for the interaction between risk category and management assignment). CONCLUSIONS: Risk stratification may be an effective method for identifying those patients with unstable angina or NQMI most likely to benefit from early invasive management. Selective use of early invasive management can have a substantial impact in reducing morbidity and mortality in higher risk patients, but may not be warranted in lower risk patients.

Aged↗

PubMed1997

Major benefit from antiplatelet therapy for patients at high risk for adverse cardiac events after coronary Palmaz-Schatz stent placement: analysis of a prospective risk stratification protocol in the Intracoronary Stenting and Antithrombotic Regimen (ISAR) trial.

BACKGROUND: The Intracoronary Stenting and Antithrombotic Regimen (ISAR) Trial is a randomized study in which antiplatelet therapy is compared with anticoagulant therapy after coronary stent placement, showing a significantly lower rate of noncardiac and cardiac events with antiplatelet therapy. The present study is a report of the analysis of a prospective risk stratification protocol in the ISAR Trial and the association with the incidence of adverse cardiac events and stent vessel occlusion. METHODS AND RESULTS: In all 517 patients randomized in the ISAR Trial, risk stratification was done with a list of 18 clinical, procedural, and angiographic variables: 165 patients with two or fewer criteria were classified as low risk, 148 patients with three criteria were classified as intermediate risk, and 204 patients with four or more criteria were classified as high risk. Within a 30-day follow-up, cardiac event rate (death, myocardial infarction, repeat intervention) was 6.4% for high-risk, 3.4% for intermediate-risk, and 0% for low-risk patients (P<.01). Stent vessel occlusion occurred in 5.9%, 2.7%, and 0%, respectively (P<.01). There was no significant difference between anticoagulant and antiplatelet therapy in the low- and intermediate-risk groups. In high-risk patients, however, the cardiac event rate was 12.6% with anticoagulant therapy and 2.0% with antiplatelet therapy (P=.007), and the rate of stent vessel occlusion was 11.5% and 0%, respectively (P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: This risk stratification protocol can help to identify patients at risk for adverse cardiac events and stent vessel occlusion. Patients in the high-risk group had the most benefit from antiplatelet therapy. These data suggest that antiplatelet therapy is the therapy of choice after coronary stenting specifically for patients with acute ischemic syndromes, difficult procedures, or suboptimal final results.

Angioplasty, Balloon, Coronary↗

PubMed2023

International Liver Cancer Association (ILCA) white paper on hepatocellular carcinoma risk stratification and surveillance.

Major research efforts in liver cancer have been devoted to increasing the efficacy and effectiveness of surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). As with other cancers, surveillance programmes aim to detect tumours at an early stage, facilitate curative-intent treatment, and reduce cancer-related mortality. HCC surveillance is supported by a large randomised-controlled trial in patients with chronic HBV infection and several cohort studies in cirrhosis; however, effectiveness in clinical practice is limited by several barriers, including inadequate risk stratification, underuse of surveillance, and suboptimal accuracy of screening tests. There are several proposed strategies to address these limitations, including risk stratification algorithms and biomarkers to better identity at-risk individuals, interventions to increase surveillance, and emerging imaging- and blood-based surveillance tests with improved sensitivity and specificity for early HCC detection. Beyond clinical validation, data are needed to establish clinical utility, i.e. increased early tumour detection and reduced HCC-related mortality. If successful, these data could facilitate a precision screening paradigm in which surveillance strategies are tailored to individual HCC risk to maximise overall surveillance value. However, practical and logistical considerations must be considered when designing and implementing these validation efforts. To address these issues, ILCA (the International Liver Cancer Association) adjourned a single topic workshop on HCC risk stratification and surveillance in June 2022. Herein, we present a white paper on these topics, including the status of the field, ongoing research efforts, and barriers to the translation of emerging strategies.

Humans↗

PubMed2005

LDL cholesterol and global risk stratification in referred hypertensive patients.

BACKGROUND: Global risk status more than BP values per se drive nowadays treatment decisions and increasing emphasis is given to the role of lipid control in hypertension (HT). However, the distribution of circulating low density lipoproteins (LDL) levels as a function of risk profile and lipid-lowering treatment in hypertensive patients is unclear. METHODS: We analysed 1196 patients (677 males, age range: 20-80 years) referred to our Hypertension Unit with treatment history and a complete dataset (systolic blood pressure levels, being on anti-hypertensive treatment or not, total and high density lipoproteins (HDL) cholesterol, smoking status, sex, age) for 10-year absolute coronary heart disease (CHD) risk stratification by National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP)/ATP III guidelines. LDL cholesterol <25.9 mmol/L (100 mg/dL) was the target for high-risk patients (vascular diseases, diabetes, hypertension with multiple risk factors at CHD risk >20%/10 years). LDL <33.6 mmol/L (130 mg/dL) and 41.4 mmol/L (160 mg/dL) were the thresholds for intermediate (10-20%/10 years) and low (<10%/10 years) CHD risk. RESULTS: At referral, 78% of high-risk patients were above target LDL and, overall, 56% had LDL cholesterol above the desired risk-specific thresholds. Lipid-lowering treatment was prescribed in 19% in whom LDL was actually higher than the untreated group. CONCLUSIONS: LDL cholesterol was out of target in most of a large series of referred high-risk hypertensive patients and LDL levels were largely unsatisfactory even in those undergoing lipid-lowering treatment. The data show the intensive effort still needed to implement global risk-oriented prevention strategies in hypertensive populations.

Adult↗

PubMed1997

Usefulness of the Killip classification for early risk stratification of patients with acute myocardial infarction in the 1990s compared with those treated in the 1980s. Israeli Thrombolytic Survey Group and the Secondary Prevention Reinfarction Israeli Nifedipine Trial (SPRINT) Study Group.

The classification introduced in 1967 by Killip et al has proved to be a useful method for early risk stratification of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Over the past 3 decades the overall mortality due to AMI has decreased significantly. The present study evaluates the usefulness of the Killip classification as a method for early risk stratification of patients with AMI in the 1990s. One thousand eight hundred seventy-three consecutive AMI patients were hospitalized in 25 coronary care units operating in Israel, and were followed for 1 year. Higher Killip class was found to be associated with increased in-hospital and 1-year mortality, in thrombolysis- and nonthrombolysis-treated patients (30-day mortality for all patients was 5%, 21%, 35%, and 67% in Killip classes I to IV, respectively). The overall mortality among AMI patients in the 1990s was found to be lower for each Killip class compared with a comparable patient population with AMI, hospitalized in Israel in the 1980s. Thus, the Killip classification is a useful method for early risk stratification of AMI patients in the 1990s.

Aged↗

PubMed2004

Efficacy of anticoagulation for stroke prevention and risk stratification in atrial fibrillation: translating trials into clinical practice.

As one of the most powerful independent risk factors for ischemic stroke and the most clinically relevant arrhythmia, atrial fibrillation (AF) poses a serious clinical and public health threat as the global population ages. AF increases the risk of ischemic stroke 4- to 5-fold although this statistic varies with age of the patient. Indeed, the prevalence rises to 1 in 25 people aged > or =60 years and 1 in 10 people aged > or =80 years. More than 2.3 million Americans have diagnosed AF, and that number is expected to increase dramatically over the coming decades. Ischemic stroke causes the most major disability and remains the third leading cause of death in the United States. Therapeutic strategies and optimal risk stratification offer the best hope for decreasing the burden of AF-related thromboembolism. This article focuses on the randomized trial evidence for the efficacy and safety of oral vitamin K antagonists (eg, warfarin) for stroke prevention in AF. In particular, this article explores how well these findings translate into clinical practice, especially among patients with AF treated outside of clinical trials. Discussion centers on using evidence-based data to guide treatment for patients who are at increased risk for stroke. Such strategies would enhance the net benefit of oral anticoagulation. Concluding points provide information on improving risk stratification for stroke in patients with AF.

Anticoagulants↗

PubMed2004

[Invasive angiography, computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging for coronary imaging and cardiovascular risk stratification? Regulatory and practical considerations].

In 2003, risk stratification in coronary heart disease is routinely performed by the results of coronary angiogram, the invasive gold standard angiography. Combined with the left ventricular ejection fraction assessment, the classification in one, two or three vessel disease remain the cornerstone of the revascularization strategy despite well-known limitations of this approach. Invasive coronary angiography is a mature technic with recommendations for training program and guidelines for indications. By comparison, the new noninvasive coronary imaging tools, computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance (MR) imaging, are just emerging. Coronary artery MR angiography is one of the most challenging areas because of the size and topology of the coronary arteries, as well as cardiac and respiratory motion. Multidetector-row and multisclice spiral computed tomography appear of most value for the detection of coronary artery disease with an excellent negative predictive value for proximal and middle main branches. Together, MR and CT, provide unique information that may predict cardiovascular risk. They identify flow-limiting coronary stenoses and calcified plaques, directly image the atherosclerotic lesions, measure atherosclerotic burden and characterize plaque components. Nevertheless, invasive coronary angiography still remain the first step of percutaneous coronary intervention. Therefore, one of the ultimate goals for the clinicians is the identification of the high-risk patient through a combination of strategies such as assessment of conventional risk factors, blood markers, and imaging. Indifferently to the imaging tool, the treatment should consider a human being and not only a picture.

Contraindications↗

PubMed1995

Improved cardiac risk stratification in major vascular surgery with dobutamine-atropine stress echocardiography.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to optimize preoperative cardiac risk stratification in a large group of consecutive candidates for vascular surgery by combining clinical risk assessment and semiquantitative dobutamine-atropine stress echocardiography. BACKGROUND: Dobutamine-atropine stress echocardiography has been used for the prediction of perioperative cardiac risk in a small group of patients scheduled for elective major vascular surgery on the basis of the presence or absence of stress-induced regional left ventricular wall motion abnormalities. METHODS: Clinical risk assessment and dobutamine-atropine stress echocardiography were performed in 302 consecutive patients presenting for major vascular surgery. The extent and severity of stress wall motion abnormalities and the heart rate at which they occurred, in addition to the presence of wall motion abnormalities at rest, were assessed. RESULTS: The absence of clinical risk factors (angina, diabetes, Q waves on the electrocardiogram, symptomatic ventricular tachyarrhythmias, age > 70 years) identified a low risk group of 100 patients with a 1% cardiac event rate (unstable angina). Dobutamine-atropine stress echocardiographic findings were positive in 72 patients. Twenty-seven patients had a perioperative cardiac event (cardiac death in 5, nonfatal infarction in 12, unstable angina pectoris in 10); all 27 patients had positive stress test results (positive predictive value 38%, negative predictive value 100%). The semiquantitative assessment of the extent and severity of ischemia did not provide additional prognostic information in patients with positive test results. In contrast, the heart rate at which ischemia occurred defined a high risk group with a low ischemic threshold (38 patients with 20 events [53%]) and an intermediate risk group with a high ischemic threshold (34 patients with 7 events [21%]). All 5 patients with a fatal outcome and 8 of 12 with a nonfatal myocardial infarction were in the high risk group with a low ischemic threshold. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical variables identify 33% of patients at very low risk for perioperative complications of vascular surgery in whom further testing is redundant. In all other candidates, dobutamine-atropine stress echocardiography is a powerful tool that identifies those patients at intermediate risk and a small group at very high risk. Risk stratification with a combination of clinical assessment and pharmacologic stress echocardiography has the potential to facilitate clinical decision making and conserve resources.

Adult↗

PubMed2004

Risk stratification in paediatric open-heart surgery.

OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were to identify independent risk factors for mortality following paediatric open-heart surgery and to develop risk models for use in clinical audit based on identified risk factors. The study also tests the validity of the recently proposed Risk Adjustment in Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) method of risk stratification as applied to open-heart operations. METHODS: A multiple logistic regression analysis was performed on all patients less than 18 years of age undergoing open-heart surgery at a single institution over a 3-year period. Preoperative and operative variables included for analysis were age at operation, weight, sex, American Society of Anaesthesiology (ASA) grade, RACHS-1 risk category, preoperative haemoglobin, bypass time, temperature, cross-clamp time, circulatory arrest time, blood transfusion on bypass and surgeon. The outcome measure was in-hospital death. RESULTS: 1085 consecutive open-heart cases were identified. There were 51 in-hospital deaths (4.7%). Variables identified as being independently significant risk factors for in-hospital death were age (P = 0.0002), RACHS-1 risk category (P < 0.0001), and bypass time. Based on these three variables, a risk model was constructed to predict mortality. The area under the receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) curve for this model was 0.86. A second model was constructed ignoring bypass time. In this model, the significance of the 'preoperative' risk factors was (P = 0.0003) for age and (P < 0.0001), for RACHS-1 risk category. The area under the ROC curve was 0.81 for the second model. CONCLUSIONS: This study identifies age at operation, RACHS-1 risk category and bypass time as highly significant risk factors for mortality after paediatric open-heart surgery. It validates the RACHS-1 risk stratification method as applied to the subset of open-heart surgery, whilst accepting the limitations of such a system. The risk models formulated permit risk prediction and allow for analysis of surgical results. Such risk-adjustment is important when assessing performance and comparing outcomes amongst individuals or institutions.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2006

Preoperative pulmonary risk stratification for noncardiothoracic surgery: systematic review for the American College of Physicians.

BACKGROUND: The importance of clinical risk factors for postoperative pulmonary complications and the value of preoperative testing to stratify risk are the subject of debate. PURPOSE: To systematically review the literature on preoperative pulmonary risk stratification before noncardiothoracic surgery. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE search from 1 January 1980 through 30 June 2005 and hand search of the bibliographies of retrieved articles. STUDY SELECTION: English-language studies that reported the effect of patient- and procedure-related risk factors and laboratory predictors on postoperative pulmonary complication rates after noncardiothoracic surgery and that met predefined inclusion criteria. DATA EXTRACTION: The authors used standardized abstraction instruments to extract data on study characteristics, hierarchy of research design, study quality, risk factors, and laboratory predictors. DATA SYNTHESIS: The authors determined random-effects pooled estimate odds ratios and, when appropriate, trim-and-fill estimates for patient- and procedure-related risk factors from studies that used multivariable analyses. They assigned summary strength of evidence scores for each factor. Good evidence supports patient-related risk factors for postoperative pulmonary complications, including advanced age, American Society of Anesthesiologists class 2 or higher, functional dependence, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and congestive heart failure. Good evidence supports procedure-related risk factors for postoperative pulmonary complications, including aortic aneurysm repair, nonresective thoracic surgery, abdominal surgery, neurosurgery, emergency surgery, general anesthesia, head and neck surgery, vascular surgery, and prolonged surgery. Among laboratory predictors, good evidence exists only for serum albumin level less than 30 g/L. Insufficient evidence supports preoperative spirometry as a tool to stratify risk. LIMITATIONS: For certain risk factors and laboratory predictors, the literature provides only unadjusted estimates of risk. Prescreening, variable selection algorithms, and publication bias limited reporting of risk factors among studies using multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Selected clinical and laboratory factors allow risk stratification for postoperative pulmonary complications after noncardiothoracic surgery.

Clinical Laboratory Techniques↗

PubMed2026

Artificial Intelligence for Diagnosis, Risk Stratification, and Prognosis of Neuroblastoma - A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PURPOSE: To synthesizes evidence on artificial intelligence (AI) performance in neuroblastoma (NB) diagnosis, risk stratification, prognosis, and genomic characterization. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted following PRISMA 2020 guidelines (PROSPERO: CRD42024539475) across five databases. Meta-analyses used random-effects models with logit-transformed Area Under the Curve (AUCs) and cluster-robust standard errors. AI models were classified as Machine Learning Models (MLM) or Hybrid Nomograms (HN) based on their construction methodology. RESULTS: Of 3,742 articles identified, 53 were included. MLMs demonstrated higher point estimates than radiologists in differential diagnosis (AUC: 0.87 vs. 0.83), though this difference was not statistically significant and carried substantial uncertainty. HNs achieved stronger performance in risk stratification (AUC: 0.87). AI-derived nomograms (AUC: 0.9) and gene signatures (AUC: 0.8) outperformed conventional prognostic markers descriptively. Chemotherapy response prediction remained below clinical utility thresholds across all model types. Only 33.9% of models reported calibration and 24.5% underwent external validation. CONCLUSIONS: AI demonstrates proof-of-concept across multiple NB clinical domains. However, clinical adoption remains premature given persistent gaps in external validation, calibration, dataset size, and pediatric-specific model development. Future studies should test these models prospectively in multicenter pediatric cohorts, ideally through COG or SIOPEN, using shared definitions for diagnosis, risk group, treatment response, and survival outcomes.

Humans↗

PubMed2006

Risk stratification for in-hospital mortality in spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage: a Classification and Regression Tree analysis.

BACKGROUND: Risk stratification for mortality in intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) helps guide care, but existing clinical prediction rules are too cumbersome for clinical practice because of their complexity. AIM: To develop a simple decision tree model of in-hospital mortality risk stratification for ICH patients. METHODS: We collected information on spontaneous ICH patients hospitalized in a teaching hospital in Japan from August, 1998 to December, 2001 (n = 374). All variables were abstracted from data available at the time of initial evaluation. A prediction rule for in-hospital mortality was developed by the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) methodology. The accuracy of the model was evaluated using the area under receiver-operator characteristic curve. RESULTS: Overall in-hospital mortality rate was 20.2%. The CART methodology identified four groups for mortality risk, varying from low (2.1%) to high (58.9%). Level of consciousness (coma) was the best single predictor for mortality, followed by high ICH volume (cut-off 10.4 ml), and then age (cut-off 75 years). The accuracy of our CART model (0.86) exceeded that of a multivariate logistic regression model (0.81). DISCUSSION: ICH patients can easily be stratified for mortality risk, based on three predictors available on admission. This simple decision tree model provides clinicians with a reliable and practical tool.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Importance of early combined N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide and cardiac troponin T measurements for long-term risk stratification of patients with decompensated heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Markers of myocardial necrosis and natriuretic peptides are risk predictors in decompensated heart failure (DHF). We prospectively studied the optimal timing of combined cardiac troponin T (cTnT) and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) measurements for long-term risk stratification. METHODS: cTnT and NT-proBNP were measured upon admission, and before discharge in 76 patients hospitalized for DHF (mean age 62.3 +/- 15 years; 71% men). RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 252 +/- 120 days, 39.5% of patients died or were re-hospitalized for DHF. From receiver-operator-characteristic (ROC) curves, the selected cut-off values for cTnT and NT-proBNP were 0.026 ng/ml and 3,700 pg/ml on admission, and 0.030 ng/ml and 3,200 pg/ml, respectively, at discharge. Depending upon measurements above vs below cut-off, the population was distributed on admission and before discharge for three groups: both negative (24% and 30% of patients); one positive (43% and 42%); and both positive (33% and 28%). For the admission groups, the 1-year DHF-free re-hospitalization survival rates were 85%, 60% and 34%, respectively (p = 0.0047). One-year survival rates for DHF-free re-hospitalization were 63%, 71% and 26% (p = 0.0029), respectively, for the discharge groups. In the Cox proportional hazards model, systolic blood pressure (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.98; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.96 to 0.99), heart rate (HR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94 to 0.98), one positive biomarker on admission (HR: 10.5; 95% CI: 1.3 to 83.7) and two positive biomarkers on admission (HR: 13.9; 95% CI: 1.8 to 98.5) were independent predictors of long-term outcomes. However, NT-proBNP on admission was the most important predictor of long-term prognosis (HR: 5.1; 95% CI: 2.3 to 12.2). CONCLUSIONS: The combined measurements of cTnT and NT-proBNP on hospital admission were more reliable than their measurements before discharge in the long-term risk stratification of DHF. A single positive measurement on admission predicted a poor long-term outcome.

Aged↗