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Early FDG-PET imaging after radical radiotherapy for non-small-cell lung cancer: inflammatory changes in normal tissues correlate with tumor response and do not confound therapeutic response evaluation.

PURPOSE: To investigate the relationship between positron emission tomography (PET) detected inflammatory changes in irradiated normal tissues and metabolic response at tumor sites in patients receiving radical radiotherapy for non-small-cell lung cancer. The prognostic significance of these changes was also studied. METHODS: In 73 consecutive patients, (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET was performed at a median of 70 days after completion of radical radiotherapy. Radiation-induced inflammatory change was scored for normal tissues within the radiation treatment volume using a 0-3 grading scale. Metabolic tumor response was assessed using a pattern-recognition algorithm comparing pre- and posttreatment scans. Prognostic significance of inflammatory changes was tested using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. RESULTS: Increased FDG uptake in normal tissues (radiotoxicity) was associated with a greater likelihood of complete or partial tumor response on both PET (p = 0.0044) and computed tomography (p = 0.029). Prognostic stratification provided by PET response was both significant and of a similar magnitude in patients with low- and high-grade radiotoxicity. CONCLUSION: Postradiotherapy inflammatory changes detected by FDG-PET are positively correlated with tumor response, suggesting that tumor radioresponsiveness and normal tissue radiosensitivity may be linked. Prognostic stratification provided by PET is not compromised by inflammatory changes if a meticulous visual response assessment technique is used.

Adenocarcinoma↗

Validation of the international prognostic index in working formulation group A low-grade non-Hodgkin's lymphoma: retrospective analysis of 137 patients from the Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio dei Linfomi registry.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The subset of non-follicular non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) includes patients with varied prognoses, thus suitable for different therapeutic approaches. The International Prognostic Index (IPI), originally proposed for aggressive NHL, has been demonstrated to be of prognostic relevance also in follicular NHL. The main aim of the study was to validate the IPI in this histologic category; in addition, the specific prognostic classification, currently employed in the Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio dei Linfomi (GISL) prospective therapeutic trials and based on different features, more similar to those applied to chronic lymphocytic leukemia, was analyzed. DESIGN AND METHODS: The present series consists of 137 evaluable patients affected by Working Formulation group A NHL out of 256 cases referred to the GISL Registry. The retrospective prognostic study included the evaluation by both univariate and multivariate analyses of overall survival, response to therapy and response duration. The IPI was applied as originally proposed. The GISL definition of indolent and aggressive disease at diagnosis was based on the presence of B symptoms, bulky disease, anemia and thrombocytopenia. RESULTS: The distribution of patients in IPI risk groups was rather unbalanced with 18%, 47%, 28% and 7% of cases classified as low (L), intermediate-low (IL), intermediate-high (IH) and high (H) risk, respectively. The median overall survival was not reached in either L or IL risk groups, and was 84.1 and 7.4 months for IH and H risk groups, respectively (p=0. 0005). A simplified IPI model was designed merging patients in both intermediate risk groups and the statistical difference of survival retained its significance. GISL prognostic stratification was demonstrated to have a significant association with survival, with a median survival of 71.3 months in aggressive disease and a median survival not reached at 152 months in indolent disease. Both the simplified IPI model and the GISL risk definition retained their significance in multivariate analysis for overall survival, while for response to therapy only the simplified IPI model resulted to be of statistical significance. In addition, the GISL prognostic stratification identified patients with different outcomes within the IPI intermediate risk group, with a median survival of 70.2 months for patients with aggressive disease wheras the median survival for those with indolent disease was not reached. Finally, a prognostic score resulting from the integration of the simplified IPI and the GISL system was statistically validated. INTERPRETATION AND CONCLUSIONS: The retrospective analysis of this series demonstrates the validity of the IPI in non-follicular indolent NHL and the usefulness of integrating the IPI parameters with disease specific prognostic variables.

Lymphoma, Non-Hodgkin↗

Prognostic histologic indicators of curatively resected hepatocellular carcinomas: a multi-institutional analysis of 425 patients with definition of a histologic prognostic index.

Despite growing information on the clinical behavior of hepatocellular carcinoma, the histologic features associated with survival are not well characterized. Clinical and pathologic data on 425 patients who underwent complete resection for hepatocellular carcinoma were reviewed. Six microscopic features, namely, microvascular invasion, nuclear pleomorphism, mitosis, tumor architecture, growth interface, and tumor necrosis, were examined. Independent predictors of survival were identified and combined into a simple prognostic index. By univariate analysis, microvascular invasion, seen in 51.3% of patients (p <0.001), nuclear grade 3, present in 42% of the cases (p <0.001), and mitosis (p <0.008) were significant predictors of poor survival. Hepatocellular carcinoma with a compact growth pattern had a better prognosis as compared with macrotrabecular (p = 0.014) and acinar (p = 0.051) patterns. By multiple regression analysis, only microvascular invasion (p <0.001) and nuclear grade 3 (p = 0.008) were independent predictors of poor survival. The predictive values of microvascular invasion and nuclear grade allowed the construction of a hepatocellular prognostic index (HPI) whereby HPI = (microvascular invasion status x 0.459) + (nuclear grade x 0.287), with microvascular invasion either absent (0) or present (1) and nuclear grade scored as 1, 2, or 3. Using a cut-off of 0.746 (corresponding to at least nuclear grade 2 with microvascular invasion), two groups could be segregated: fair prognosis (HPI < or = 0.746), with a 50% survival of 5.06 years, and poor prognosis (HPI >0.746) with a 50% survival of 2.71 years (p <0.001). HPI was more discriminating than Edmondson grade, with Edmondson II hepatocellular carcinomas dispersed in both fair and poor prognosis groups. Microvascular invasion and nuclear grade 3 emerge as strong prognostic indicators, and their combination provides adequate prognostic stratification. Practically, hepatocellular carcinoma can be stratified in two groups with regard to prognosis: 1) fair prognosis group (nuclear grade 1 with or without microvascular invasion and nuclear grade 2 without microvascular invasion), and 2) poor prognosis (nuclear grade 2 with microvascular invasion and nuclear grade 3 with or without microvascular invasion). The combination of these histologic parameters provides adequate prognostic stratification.

Adolescent↗

[Exercise test after acute myocardial infarction: without therapy?].

In this article we analyze the role of ECG exercise test in the clinical evaluation and prognostic stratification of patients after acute myocardial infarction. Moreover, we analyze if test results may be influenced by drugs. In clinical practice, most of the cardiologists working in hospital perform pre-discharge tests while patients are on medical therapy; after the acute event, exercise test is performed after pharmacological wash-out. In the thrombolytic age exercise test has a well-defined role in the evaluation and prognostic stratification of postinfarction patients, but some aspects regarding the way of performance and the opportunity of a pharmacological wash-out need further investigation.

Data Interpretation, Statistical↗

Peak exercise oxygen consumption in chronic heart failure: toward efficient use in the individual patient.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to 1) assess the short-, medium-and long-term prognostic power of peak oxygen consumption (VO2) in patients with heart failure; 2) verify the consistency of a nonmeasurable anaerobic threshold (AT) as a criterion of nonapplicability of peak VO2; 3) develop simple rules for the efficient use of peak VO2 in individualized prognostic stratification and clinical decision making. BACKGROUND: Peak VO2, when AT is identified, is among the indicators for heart transplant eligibility. However, in clinical practice the application of defined peak VO2 cutoff values to all patients could be inappropriate and misleading. METHODS: Six hundred fifty-three patients consecutively considered for eligibility for heart transplantation were followed up. Outcomes (cardiac death and urgent transplantation) were determined when all survivors had a minimum of 6 months of follow-up. RESULTS: Contraindication to the exercise test identified very high risk patients. The relatively small sample of women did not allow inferences to be drawn. In men, peak VO2 stratified into three levels (< or = 10, 10 to 18 and >18 ml/kg per min) identified groups at high, medium and low risk, respectively. The prognostic power of peak VO2 < or = 10 ml/kg per min was maintained even when the AT was not detected. In patients in New York Heart Association functional class III or IV, peak VO2 did not have prognostic power. In patients in functional class I or II, peak VO2 stratification was prognostically valuable, but less so at 6 than at 12 or 24 months. Age did not influence peak VO2 prognostic stratification. CONCLUSIONS: A contraindication to exercise testing should be considered a priority for listing patients for heart transplantation. Only in less symptomatic male patients does a peak VO2 < or = 10 ml/kg per min identify short-, medium- and long-term high risk groups. A peak VO2 >18 ml/kg per min implies good prognosis with medical therapy.

Anaerobic Threshold↗

Prognostic grading and significance of ventricular premature beats after recovery from myocardial infarction.

A 6-hour taped electrocardiogram recording was obtained prior to hospital discharge on 193 patients less than 66 years of age with a definite or probable myocardial infarction. All ventricular premature beats (VPBs) were identified on the 6-hour recording, and the various VPB characteristics were related to a complicated course (CC) defined as cardiac death or myocardial reinfarction within 4 months after hospital discharge. Only three univariate VPB characteristics (multiform pattern, bigeminal rhythm, and frequency greater than or equal to 20/hr) were significantly associated with a 4-month posthospital CC. By use of bivariate and multivariate combinations of these three VPB characteristics, a two-grade prognostic stratification system was derived: Grade I VPBs (CC = 8%) included patients with less than 20 VPB/hr but with neither multiform nor bigeminal beats: Grade II VPBs (CC = 31%, P less than 0.001) contained patients with greater than or equal to 20 VPBs/hr or with multiform or bigeminal beats or both. Patients with Grade II VPBs had more severe cardiac disease, but when patients were stratified by the clinical severity of their cardiac disease, Grade II VPBs identified patients with higher CC rates. The clinical significance of these findings together with a critical analysis of the prognostic stratification method are discussed.

Aged↗

Quantification of cytokeratin 20, carcinoembryonic antigen and guanylyl cyclase C mRNA levels in lymph nodes may not predict treatment failure in colorectal cancer patients.

Conventional histopathologic staging of primary colorectal cancers does not allow accurate prognostic stratification within a given tumour stage. Therefore, PCR-based assays are increasingly used to try to predict more accurately the likelihood of disease progression for the individual patient. Real-time reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) assays were used to detect and quantitate cytokeratin 20 (ck20), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and guanylyl cyclase C (GCC) mRNA in 149 lymph nodes (LN) from 17 patients with benign disease and 302 LN from 42 patients with colorectal cancer who had curative (R0) resections. None of the markers were specific, with ck20, CEA and GCC mRNA detected in 47%, 89% and 13% of 149 LN, respectively, from patients with benign disease. The sensitivity of all 3 markers was very high, with mRNA detected in 93%, 100% and 97% of 30 histologically involved LN, respectively. There was significant overlap in the mRNA levels of all 3 markers between histologically involved and uninvolved LN. There was no association between mRNA levels and distant recurrence (median follow-up: 3.94 years, range 3.35-5.12). We conclude that the use of molecular techniques to detect occult disease in LN may suffer from the same limitations as conventional methods. Instead, accurate prognostic stratification requires careful assessment of the likely metastatic potential of the primary cancer.

Adult↗

Risk stratification and prognostic implication of plasma biomarkers in nondiabetic patients with stable coronary artery disease: the role of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the implication of plasma biomarkers to future cardiovascular events in nondiabetic patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD). Designs and settings: Prospective, follow-up study at a tertiary referral center. Patients and measurement: Serial plasma biomarkers including high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), homocysteine, soluble adhesion molecules, von Willebrand factor, and lipid profiles were determined before coronary angiograms in a series of nondiabetic CAD patients with stable angina. Among them, 75 consecutive patients who received coronary revascularization (48 coronary interventions and 27 coronary bypass surgeries) later and another 75 age- and gender-matched patients who preferred medical treatment were both enrolled. In patients of each group, major cardiovascular events including cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, new or repeated coronary revascularization, and hospitalization for unstable angina, stroke, or peripheral artery disease were prospectively followed up for at least 6 months. RESULTS: Patients were followed up to 40 months (median, 18 months). The incidences of major cardiovascular events were similar between the two groups. For patients with medical treatment, plasma levels of hsCRP, homocysteine, low-density lipoprotein, and the ratio of total cholesterol (TC) to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) were significantly higher in those with cardiovascular events than those without. However, only hsCRP > 0.1 mg/dL (relative risk [RR], 2.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21 to 6.41; p = 0.016) and TC/HDL-C ratio > 4.8 (RR, 2.42; 95% CI, 1.04 to 5.65; p = 0.041) were independent predictors by multivariable analysis. For patients with revascularization, basal plasma hsCRP levels were higher in those with cardiovascular events than those without (p = 0.04). However, no biochemical markers could predict future major cardiovascular events in these patients. CONCLUSIONS: In nondiabetic patients with CAD, basal plasma hsCRP levels were increased with future cardiovascular events regardless of different treatment strategies. Both plasma hsCRP level and TC/HDL-C ratio independently predict future cardiovascular events, confirming the role of plasma biomarkers in clinical risk stratification especially in patients with medical treatment.

Aged↗

Thrombus Metabolism-Based Molecular Subtyping for Prognostic Risk Stratification in Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Preliminary Study.

AIMS: To preliminarily characterize metabolic molecular subtypes of cerebral thromboemboli and evaluate their clinical significance in anterior circulation acute ischemic stroke due to large vessel occlusion (AIS-LVO). METHODS: Untargeted metabolomics was performed on thromboemboli retrieved from 36 patients with anterior circulation AIS-LVO using ultra-performance coupled liquid chromatography with quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry (UPLC-Q-TOF-MS). Unsupervised hierarchical clustering was employed to identify distinct metabolic molecular subtypes, and their associations with stroke etiology, radiographic severity, and functional outcomes were analyzed. RESULTS: Two distinct thrombus metabolic molecular subtypes (C1 and C2) were identified based on 12 metabolites significantly associated with both short-term (7-day &#x2206;NIHSS) and long-term (90-day mRS) functional outcomes. The C1 subtype, predominantly cardioembolic, exhibited enhanced lipid metabolism, whereas the C2 subtype, primarily atherothrombotic, demonstrated increased folate metabolism. Patients with C1 thromboemboli presented more severe admission ischemic lesions (as indicated by ASPECTS) and experienced poorer short-term and long-term outcomes. A six-metabolite signature derived from LASSO regression was identified for exploratory discrimination of thrombus metabolic subtypes, etiological subtypes, and 90-day outcomes. CONCLUSION: This preliminary exploratory study identifies two metabolically distinct thrombus molecular subtypes with clinical implications in anterior circulation AIS-LVO, providing a novel basis for risk stratification and personalized secondary prevention and warrants further investigation.

Humans↗

[The acute physiology score as a stratification and prognostic criterion in patients in a surgical intensive care ward].

In order to compare different groups of intensive-care patients and therapeutic interventions a measuring system is needed reflecting the patient's pathophysiologic status with great accuracy. The APACHE-system designed by Knaus et al. (APS) meets the requirements when comparing groups of patients. This prospective study was undertaken to determine whether APS is useful to forecast survival and death of 764 individual patients of a surgical ICU. The results were compared to daily statements obtained from the head surgeon of the intensive-care department. Both the physician and APS gave true judgements in 95% of the cases. Overestimation of the operative procedures by the physician was revealed to be a major source of error in wrong statements. When a combination of APS and physician's judgement was used the forecasts were found true in 99% of the patients. The authors conclude that APS by itself is not able to give a sufficient prognosis in an individual ICU patient but is an excellent tool to assure or modify the physician's opinion.

Humans↗

Do management algorithms improve chest pain triage?

OBJECTIVE: To audit the use of management algorithms for chest pain in an emergency department. DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective study of all patients with chest pain presenting to the emergency department of an urban teaching hospital between 12 January and 4 May 1997. Staff were asked to complete a standardised admission form that incorporated the risk stratification algorithms for managing patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Compliance with the use of management algorithms; concordance with a cardiologist's review of the triage grouping and admission/discharge decision; and major cardiovascular events over four months. RESULTS: Emergency department staff documented the triage group in 223 of 503 cases (45%). Concordance with the group assigned by a cardiologist was 70% (kappa = 0.73; SE kappa = 0.04). When the management algorithm was applied correctly, 92% of triage decisions were correct (95% confidence interval [CI], 87%-96%). The triage decision was less often correct when risk stratification was not done (78% [73%-83%], P < 0.001), overestimated (77% [66%-88%], P < 0.01), or underestimated (50% [18%-82%], P < 0.001). The proportion of patients free of major cardiovascular events at four-month follow-up was 50% for those with myocardial infarction with ST-segment elevation, 47% for those with a high short-term risk of an adverse cardiac event, 82% for those with intermediate risk, and 99% for those with a low risk or non-coronary chest pain (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Use of management algorithms by emergency staff was poor. When used, triage decisions were more likely to be correct. Subsequent outcome confirms that the NHMRC risk stratification algorithms are useful for prognostic stratification of patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome.

Adult↗

Comparison of the prognostic value of Scarff-Bloom-Richardson and Nottingham histological grades in a series of 825 cases of breast cancer: major importance of the mitotic count as a component of both grading systems.

The most commonly used system in Europe for breast carcinoma was developed by Scarff, Bloom and Richardson (SBR). It was recently modified by Elston and Ellis and significant improvement in reproducibility has been shown by using precise grading guidelines. This study investigated whether the use of this new grade (defined as the Nottingham grade, NG) would improve the prognostic stratification of patients. The respective prognostic value of the two grading schemes was compared in a retrospective series of 825 patients uniformly treated for a small invasive breast carcinoma and followed for a median of 6 years. Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that both histological grades were strongly correlated to overall and metastasis free survival. We have separately analysed the prognostic value of each of the three components used to assess the two grading systems and found that the mitotic index was the only significant prognostic factor for 5 year survival. Univariate analysis showed the count to be more discriminant in the NG scheme (p = 0.0006) than in the SBR scheme (p = 0.04). However, in univariate and multivariate analysis, the prognostic value of the global NG was not significantly better than SBR grade. This may be related, in part, to an uneven distribution of cases reflected by a much lower number of cases with a high mitotic index in the NG system (2%) than in the SBR system (10%). Our study emphasizes the importance of the mitotic count in assessing the prognosis of breast cancers and indicates that the factors which condition this count (tissue processing, microscopic observation, threshold) must be well standardized and controlled.

Adult↗

TFPI-high myofibroblast states and a meta-program-related five-gene prognostic signature in breast cancer.

Intratumoral heterogeneity and tumor-microenvironment interactions limit prognostic stratification in breast cancer, but the prognostic relevance and cellular context of recurrent transcriptional meta-programs remain unclear. We aimed to derive a meta-program-related prognostic signature and characterize its component transcripts at single-cell resolution. Six paired institutional tumors and adjacent non-tumor tissues served as a proof-of-concept comparison. Univariable Cox screening and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression were used to derive a five-gene score from a prespecified meta-program-related candidate set in The Cancer Genome Atlas Breast Invasive Carcinoma (TCGA-BRCA) training cohort; the score was tested internally and assessed in GSE20685 using fixed coefficients and cohort-specific median cutoffs. GSE161529 single-cell transcriptomic data were used to map signature transcripts across 136,526 quality-controlled cells, while donor-aware pseudobulk analysis compared upper- and lower-quartile TFPI expression states in annotated myofibroblasts. The score comprised TCN1, FOXJ1, PIGR, SLAIN1, and TFPI and was associated with overall survival in the training, testing, and external cohorts, with concordance indices of 0.782, 0.756, and 0.721, respectively. TFPI transcripts were detected across endothelial, fibroblast, and myofibroblast compartments. TFPI-high myofibroblasts showed transcriptional enrichment of extracellular matrix and collagen fibril organization, transforming growth factor beta signaling, epithelial-mesenchymal transition, and myogenesis, together with lower oxidative phosphorylation and fatty acid metabolism programs. In bulk TCGA-BRCA tissue, TFPI expression correlated positively with stromal (r&#xa0;= 0.48), immune (r&#xa0;= 0.25), and composite microenvironment scores (r&#xa0;= 0.40; all p&#xa0;< 0.001). These findings identify a hypothesis-generating five-gene bulk-tissue prognostic signature and an expression-associated TFPI-high myofibroblast state but do not establish a discrete lineage, the cellular source of bulk TFPI, a TFPI-dependent mechanism, or clinical utility. Independent prospective cohorts, spatial and protein-level validation, and functional perturbation studies are required.

Journal Article↗