[Population forecasts 1984: hypotheses on nuptiality].
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A method of estimating current fertility from information on last live births is presented. The technique is developed from one proposed by Hull for estimating fertility rates for Indonesia using 1976 intercensal survey data and does not depend on conditions of stable fertility or on assumptions about past mortality. "The estimates of [the] total fertility rate for Indonesia 1980 are 4.40, 3.87 and 4.28 for the rural, urban and the total areas respectively, and compare well with the estimates derived by the 'Own Children' method." A comment by Aris Ananta (pp. 49-53) is included. (summary in IND)
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Using data from the official vital statistics register and from a three-round survey that was conducted in 1969-1970, the author calculates mortality estimates for Algeria for the years 1965-1981. The findings show "a period of fluctuations between 1965 and 1975, [during which] mortality between the age of five and young adult age experienced a deterioration which could [have been] the result of an increase of deaths due to accidents. Since 1976, mortality has decreased spectacularly, although all ages do not benefit from this decrease in the same way." (summary in ENG, ITA)
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"This paper deals with derivation of models to describe the number of births to women during interval (O,T) of length T, when the start of the observation is marriage as well as when it is a distant point after marriage. These models are extensions of the models of Singh, et al., (1973) and of Sheps and Menken (1973) and can suitably be applied to data for short periods of observation as the parameters are assumed to be homogeneous in time. The methods to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters are outlined." The models are applied to data from a sample survey on rural development and population growth carried out by the Demographic Research Centre of Banaras Hindu University in 1978 in order to examine trends in fecundability and sterility by age of women.
"This paper presents an explicit derivation of effects of age misstatement on census survival rates (CSR) and life table survival rate (LTSR) estimates of net migration and net migration rates. In the presence of age misstatement, CSR estimates of migration and migration rates are generally biased, although the direction of bias is not always clear. The paper also shows how the analysis of errors due to age misstatement is related to past analyses of errors due to underenumeration."
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