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PubMed1986

Probabilistic approaches to current life table estimation.

"Two simple current life table estimators of conditional probabilities of death result from making either a uniform or exponential distributional assumption of time at death in the age interval. Each is compared with Chiang's estimator based on the concept of fraction of the last age interval of life. Graphical and numerical results are presented to assess the magnitude and direction of differences between estimators when the true value of Chiang's fraction takes on specific values."

Demography↗
PubMed1986

[Population of Japan in the Meiji-Taishyo era: a reestimation].

After reviewing previous estimates of the Japanese population in the pre-censal years from the 1860s to 1920, the author presents a reestimation for this period based on more recent studies in historical demography and on Coale and Demeny's regional model life tables. "The most important revision in the present estimation [is] that life-table death rates...for the Meiji-Taishyo era are estimated by Gompertz curves with upper and lower limits in place of the former linear curves." (summary in ENG)

Asia↗
PubMed1986

An analysis of migratory systems: 2. Operational framework.

"This is the second in a series of three interrelated papers which aim to combine evolutionary migration models with stochastic utility theory. The first paper dealt with migratory dynamics. Here the details are given of a choice model, established by McFadden, which can be used in conjunction with migratory dynamics thus providing an explicit link between the macroproperties of the population system and human behaviour. First, the structure of transition probabilities is derived under a two-level decision to migrate. An argument is then given about the empirical form of these probabilities, and the discussion closes with a method which can be used for their maximum likelihood estimation."

Behavior↗
PubMed1986

The costs of urbanization: a case study of Pakistan.

"A methodology is developed for estimating the aggregate costs of urbanization in Pakistan for 1983-2003. These costs are then compared with the future investment resource pool, and are found to be larger than the total pool. Alternative policy solutions to alleviate the problem are explored. Although some capital-saving strategies (such as major public works programs in rural areas and labor-intensive employment policies) would be helpful, it will be impossible to avoid a substantial rise in the proportion of the urban population without services from about one quarter to about one half of the total. The paper concludes with suggestions for refining the methodology in future studies."

Asia↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[The number of households is growing faster than the population].

Future trends in households in France are examined using official data. The author notes that "the number of households will probably increase by about 20% between 1982 and 2000. Their size will be more limited. Although young people are leaving home later, increasing numbers of people will be living alone and generational cohabitation will be increasingly rare." The author also suggests that the trend toward the breakup of households will probably decline. The result of these trends will lead to an increase in the number of households up to approximately the year 1993.

Developed Countries↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[The aging of the French population is inevitable].

Probable population trends in France up to the year 2000 are explored. "Between now and the year 2000, the French population will grow by three or four million. There will be 12 million persons over the age of 60, as compared to 10 million today. The working population will be more numerous, but older. Only the number of young people is difficult to estimate, because of the uncertainty concerning the birth rate." The demographic consequences of alternative fertility trends are discussed. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA)

Birth Rate↗