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Segregation analysis of cancer in families of childhood soft-tissue-sarcoma patients.

This paper presents the analysis of familial cancer data collected in a hospital-based study of 159 childhood soft-tissue-sarcoma patients. Two different statistical models detected excess aggregation of cancer, which could be explained by a rare dominant gene. For each kindred, we estimated the probability of the observed cancer distribution under the dominant-gene model and identified 12 families that are the most likely to be segregating the gene. Two of those families have confirmed germ-line mutations in the p53 tumor-suppressor gene. The relative risk of affection for children who are gene carriers was estimated to be 100 times the background rate. Females were found to have a slightly higher age-specific penetrance, but maternal and paternal lineages made equal contributions to the evidence in favor of the dominant gene. The proband's histology, ethnicity, and age at diagnosis were evaluated to determine whether any of these altered the probability of affection in family members. Only embryonal rhabdomyosarcoma was found to be a significant covariate under the dominant-gene model. While molecular genetic studies of familial cancer will eventually provide answers to the questions of genetic heterogeneity, age- and site-specific penetrance, mutation rates, and gene frequency, information from statistical models is useful for setting priorities and defining hypotheses.

Adolescent↗

Statistical age-period-cohort analysis: a review and critique.

Descriptive and statistical age-period-cohort (APC) analysis methods have received considerable attention in the literature. The statistical modeling of APC data often involves the popular multiple classification model, a model containing the effects of age groups (rows), periods of observation (columns), and birth cohorts (diagonals of the age-by-period table). The identifiability problem inherent to this model is discussed, and its adverse effects on the results of APC modeling exercises are illustrated numerically. Potential problems attendant with the use of two-factor models are described, and other possible modeling approaches currently in use are discussed. Interpretational limitations due to certain innate characteristics of typical APC data sets are also detailed. Given all the documented potential sources for error, the current state-of-the-art regarding the statistical modeling of APC data should be considered to be at an early stage of development.

Adult↗

Exposures and mortality among chrysotile asbestos workers. Part I: exposure estimates.

A detailed study of plant processes and dust control methods over the period 1930-1975 was conducted in an asbestos textile plant processing chrysotile. Linear statistical models for reconstructing historic dust exposure levels, taking into account textile processes, dust control measures, and job assignments, were developed. Parameters of these statistical models were estimated using 5,952 industrial hygiene sampling measurements covering the period 1930-1975. For most textile operations, exposure levels were significantly reduced by about 1940, when most engineering dust control measures were in place. Results of the exposure estimates indicated "precontrol" exposure levels to range from 3 to 78 fibers/cc with typical levels well above 10 fibers/cc. After textile operations were provided with dust control measures, estimated exposure levels ranged from 3 to 17 fibers/cc and were usually in the range of 5 to 10 fibers/cc. These exposure estimates were combined with an assessment of mortality among workers at this plant to investigate exposure-response relationships. Exposure-response results are presented in the companion manuscript in this volume.

Asbestos↗

Determinants of levels and changes of physical functioning in chronically ill persons: results from the GLOBE Study.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Declines in physical functioning are a common result of chronic illness, but relatively little is known about factors not directly related to severity of disease that influence the occurrence of disability among chronically ill persons. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of a large number of potential determinants (sociodemographic factors, health related behaviour, structural living conditions, and psychosocial factors). DESIGN: Longitudinal study of levels and changes of physical functioning among persons suffering from four chronic diseases (asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), heart disease, diabetes, chronic low back pain). In 1991, persons suffering from one or more of these diseases were identified in a general population survey. Self reported disabilities, using a subset of the OECD disability indicator, were measured six times between 1991 and 1997. These data were analysed using generalised estimating equations, relating determinants measured in 1991 to disability between 1991 and 1997, and controlling for a number of potential confounders (age, gender, year of measurement, and type and severity of chronic disease). SETTING: Region of Eindhoven (south eastern Netherlands). PARTICIPANTS: 1784 persons with asthma/COPD, heart disease, diabetes mellitus and/or low back pain. MAIN RESULTS: In a "repeated prevalence" model, statistically significant (p<0.05) and strong associations were found between most of the determinants and the prevalence of disabilities. In a "longitudinal change" model, statistically significant (p<0.05) predictors of unfavourable changes in physical functioning were low income and excessive alcohol consumption, while we also found indications for effects of marital status, degree of urbanisation, smoking, and external locus of control. CONCLUSIONS: Other factors than characteristics of the underlying disease have an important influence on levels and changes of physical functioning among chronically ill persons. Reduction of the prevalence of disabilities in the population not only depends on medical interventions, but may also require social interventions, health education, and psychological interventions among chronically ill persons.

Activities of Daily Living↗

A pooled analysis of eastern cooperative oncology group and intergroup trials of adjuvant high-dose interferon for melanoma.

PURPOSE: Nearly 2000 patients with stage IIB and III melanoma have participated in four multicenter, randomized trials, conducted by the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group and the Intergroup, investigating adjuvant high-dose IFN-alpha 2b therapy. The objectives of this study were to update the analyses of each individual trial and to analyze prognostic factors and treatment effects based on pooled data. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Survival and disease status were updated to April 2001. Analysis of prognostic factors using optimized statistical models was based on data from patients in E1684, E1690, E1694, and E2696. Analysis of treatment effects versus observation (Obs) was based on data from 713 patients randomized to high-dose IFN-alpha 2b (HDI) or Obs in Trials E1684 and E1690. RESULTS: Updated analysis of E1684, E1690, and E1694 confirmed their original conclusions, now at median follow-up intervals of 2.1-12.6 years. Based on two-sided univariate log-rank analysis of pooled data from E1684 and E1690 (median follow-up, 7.2 years), relapse-free survival (RFS)-but not overall survival (OS)-was significantly prolonged (two-sided log-rank P value = 0.006) for patients treated with HDI versus Obs. Among all patients, prognostic factors that significantly negatively impacted RFS and OS included ulceration, recurrent disease at entry, enrollment in E1684, and age > 49 years. Multivariate statistical models adjusting for these factors confirmed the statistically significant RFS benefit of HDI versus Obs but did not demonstrate a significant OS benefit in the pooled populations. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with high-risk resected melanoma, HDI is effective adjuvant therapy with strong evidence for improved RFS and evidence for moderate improvement in OS based on two prospective randomized studies but not the pooled analysis. Analyses of predictors of relapse and response are now needed to improve the therapeutic value of this modality.

Adult↗

A statistical approach for classifying change in cognitive function in individuals following pharmacologic challenge: an example with alprazolam.

INTRODUCTION: The effects of any drug treatment on cognitive function are typically studied in groups of subjects. Observations made about the behavior of the drug, in the study sample, are then generalized to the population from which the sample was drawn. However, the magnitude and pharmacodynamic qualities of the response to many central nervous system-active drugs are known to vary in the population. Therefore, it is useful to consider statistical models for the detection of cognitive change in response to a drug treatment in individual subjects. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this report, we first outline the statistical assumptions and requirements for the reliable estimation of clinically relevant individual change in cognition. We then used the sedative benzodiazepine, alprazolam, as a pharmacologic challenge in healthy volunteer subjects to test our statistical model, using a parallel groups placebo-controlled study design. After treatment, the nature and severity of alprazolam-induced cognitive change was determined for each individual. RESULTS: Our proposed method and analysis showed an excellent sensitivity and specificity for alprazolam-related cognitive deterioration in individuals. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: These findings, although preliminary, suggest that statistically reliable decisions about the effects of sedative drugs on cognition can be made for individuals.

Adult↗

Appropriate interpretation of indirect calorimetry for determining energy expenditure of patients in intensive care units.

Energy expenditure varies with patient agitation. We asked whether energy expenditure determined from 5 minutes of measurement with less than 5% variation in minute-to-minute measurements (short mean) was similar to energy expenditure determined from a longer measurement period (long mean; average duration: 31 minutes). The difference between the short mean and the long mean was less than 5% for 42 of 47 patients in intensive care units; the difference was more than 10% for 2 patients. We also generated a statistical model simulating energy expenditure measurement variations of 5% to 20%, and calculated the necessary measurement durations required to achieve a 3% error in measurement. The statistical model showed that for energy expenditure variations of 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20%, the necessary durations of measurement to achieve a 3% error were 3, 9, 16, and 25 minutes, respectively. We conclude that energy expenditure may be determined using the mean of a 5-minute period of measurement if variation in that measurement is less than 5%. Larger variation requires longer periods of measurement.

Calorimetry, Indirect↗

Deficits in compensatory trajectory adjustments after unilateral sensorimotor stroke.

In a previous study, we demonstrated that the time-course for amplitude specification of goal-directed aiming movements is similar for individuals with and without a unilateral sensorimotor (SM) area lesion. However, subjects with a SM lesion performing with the arm ipsilateral to the side of the brain lesion were significantly less accurate than control subjects in an unpredictable condition. The unpredictable condition requires that subjects both formulate an initial plan for movement as well as adjust the response later as additional information about the target (i.e., the goal) is gained. It has been demonstrated that premovement planning and compensatory adjustments are the processes contributing largely to accuracy in targeted, isometric force responses. A statistical model has been described, which partitions response trajectories into the planned and compensatory adjustment components. The purpose of this study was to apply the statistical model to our previous data to determine if the difference in accuracy in those with unilateral stroke was due to a deficit in premovement planning, compensatory adjustments, or a combination of these two factors. We compared the performance of six subjects with unilateral stroke to that of matched control subjects participating in a timed-response movement paradigm. Subjects rapidly flexed or extended the forearm in order to capture a short (20 degrees) or long (45 degrees) target presented in either a fixed (predictable condition) or a random sequence (unpredictable condition). For individuals with stroke, the limb used was that ipsilateral to the side of the SM lesion. Time to prepare the response was manipulated by varying the time of target presentation relative to an auditory cue for movement initiation. Velocity was derived from the displacement data, and multiple regression was used to determine the effect of premovement planning and compensatory adjustments on end-point accuracy. In the predictable condition, premovement planning contributed to final position more for the subjects with stroke [mean (SEM) = 0.50 (0.02)] than for the control subjects [0.36 (0.03)]. In the unpredictable condition, there were no differences between groups in percent variance due to planning [0.54 (2.1) for the stroke group and 0.45 (2.8) for the control group]. This suggests that the ipsilateral (i.e., intact, undamaged) SM hemisphere significantly participates in the premovement planning of an aiming action. In contrast, for both predictable and unpredictable conditions, compensatory adjustments accounted for a smaller percentage of the variability in final position for the subjects with stroke than for the control subjects [0.09 (2.2) for the stroke group and 0.25 (4.8) for the control group]. Therefore, the less accurate responses for the stroke group can be explained by deficits in the compensatory adjustment component. This suggests a substantial role for SM areas in the preparation and implementation of corrective actions while the effects of the pre-planned action are unfolding. In particular, we discuss the role of the ipsilateral SM areas in relation to parallel feedforward processing in unimanual aiming.

Aged↗

Interpersonal feedback: a social relations perspective.

The social relations model (SRM; Kenny, 1994) is a statistical model for studying interpersonal perception and behavior that can be meaningfully applied to the group therapy situation. It consists of four primary components that correspond to (a) the general emotional or attitudinal climate of the group, (b) the perspective of the perceiver providing the feedback, (c) the group's consensual view of the target who receives the feedback, and (d) the unique relationship between the perceiver and the target. Because of its rigor and specificity, the components of the SRM may serve as a heuristic for thinking about interpersonal feedback in group therapy. A case example is used to demonstrate how an SRM perspective could guide therapists' ways of conceptualizing feedback.

Adult↗

Diffusion and innovation rates for multidimensional neuronal data with large spatial covariances.

The diffusion model has been introduced as a statistical model for processing multidimensional neuronal data. This paper extends estimation procedures for the parameters of this model when spatial covariances are large. The new method is based upon linear regression techniques. It is applied to an optical recording of the auditory cortex of a guinea pig stimulated with pure tone bursts (frequency 14 kHz).

Algorithms↗

[Discussion of a biometrical model for the evaluation of feeding, age, and animal effects on transport properties of small intestinal mucosa].

This paper is concerned with the question in which ways study results can depend on the choice of the statistical model and factors included in this model. This is shown using example data of a study dealing with the effects of an Enterococcus faecium as probiotic in the diet of pigs. We focused on the effects on transport properties of pig jejunum. The experimental design was the following: the sows and piglets were randomly assigned to two different feeding groups. The control group was fed a conventional diet and the experimental group was additionally supplemented with a probiotic preparation of Enterococcus faecium NCIMB 10415. The animals were divided into four age groups. Two samples of five animals of each feeding and age group were taken and mounted into conventional Ussing chambers. Glucose transport rates were measured by changes in short-circuit current (Isc) of the pig jejunum epithelium. The appropriate reference base for evaluation of effects of feeding or age on Isc is the variation between animals which are submitted to identical conditions relating to these factors. To refer explicitly to this variation a random animal effect has to be included in the statistical model of variance analysis. Otherwise the variation between animals could be underestimated. With the example data set conclusions for the factor "feeding" would be different depending on whether a random animal effect is included in the model or not.

Age Factors↗

Genetic network models and statistical properties of gene expression data in knock-out experiments.

It is shown here how gene knock-out experiments can be simulated in Random Boolean Networks (RBN), which are well-known simplified models of genetic networks. The results of the simulations are presented and compared with those of actual experiments in S. cerevisiae. RBN with two incoming links per node have been considered, and the Boolean functions have been chosen at random among the set of so-called canalizing functions. Genes are knocked-out (i.e. silenced) one at a time, and the variations in the expression levels of the other genes, with respect to the unperturbed case, are considered. Two important variables are defined: (i) avalanches, which measure the size of the perturbation generated by knocking out a single gene, and (ii) susceptibilities, which measure how often the expression of a given gene is modified in these experiments. A remarkable observation is that the distributions of avalanches and susceptibilities are very robust, i.e. they are very similar in different random networks; this should be contrasted with the distribution of other variables that show a high variance in RBN. Moreover, the distribution of avalanches and susceptibilities of the RBN models are close to those observed in actual experiments performed with S. cerevisiae, where the changes in gene expression levels have been recorded with DNA microarrays. These findings suggest that these distributions might be "generic" properties, common to a wide range of genetic models and real genetic networks. The importance of such generic properties is discussed.

Computational Biology↗

The generalization of the odds ratio, risk ratio and risk difference to r x k tables.

Familiar measures of association for 2 x 2 tables are the odds ratio, the risk ratio and the risk difference. Analagous measures of outcome-exposure association are desirable when there are several degrees of severity of both exposure and disease outcome. One such measure (alpha), which we label the general odds ratio (OR(G)), was proposed by Agresti. Convenient methods are given for calculation of both standard error and 95 per cent confidence intervals for OR(G). Other approaches to generalizing the odds ratio entail fitting statistical models which might not fit the data, and cannot handle some zero frequencies. We propose a generalization of the risk ratio (RR(G)) following the statistical approaches of Agresti, Goodman and Kruskal. A method of calculating the standard error and 95 per cent confidence interval for RR(G) is provided. A known statistic, Somers' d, fulfils the characteristics necessary for a generalized risk difference (RD(G)). These measures have straightforward interpretations, are easily computed, are at least as precise as other methods and do not require fitting statistical models to the data. We also examine the pooling of such measures as in, for example, meta-analysis.

Anti-Ulcer Agents↗

Formulation optimization for the nanoparticles-in-microsphere hybrid oral delivery system using factorial design.

The tremendous progress witnessed in the field of biotechnology with respect to discovery of therapeutic and antigenic proteins has propelled the need for development of suitable oral delivery devices for these and other macromolecules. In this study, we report the encapsulation of fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC)-labeled gelatin nanoparticles into poly(epsilon-caprolactone) (PCL) microsphere (nanoparticle-in-microsphere oral delivery system, NiMOS) by double emulsion like technique and the influence of variables such as polymer concentration in organic phase, amount of nanoparticles added as internal phase, and the speed of homogenization on particle size of NiMOS using a 3(3) randomized full factorial design. A statistical model with interaction terms was derived to predict the particle size of the hybrid system. The results from multiple linear regression analysis and Student's t-test revealed that for obtaining large particles of NiMOS, a high polymer concentration and low speed of homogenization was necessary. In contrast, to obtain particles of smaller size, high speed of homogenization was found to be very important. The mathematical model obtained was validated for prediction of particle size. The encapsulation of gelatin nanoparticles in PCL microsphere was confirmed by fluorescent microscopy. Based on the statistical model we were also successful in producing NiMOS of less than 10 mum in size, which could be used as oral delivery system for therapeutic and antigenic macromolecules.

Administration, Oral↗

Statistical methods for analysis of in vitro antigen quantification data for veterinary biologic products.

In vitro assay systems that measure the antigen content of veterinary biologic products use a statistical model for quantification. The most prevalent assay system for measuring veterinary biologics in the United States compares a reference, demonstrated to be protective in the host species, to the serial being tested. An ideal statistical model evaluates the similarity of response and compares the amount of antigen of a serial to the reference. This method is defined as the relative potency approach. Various statistical methods have been proposed for relative potency determinations. The standard curve, slope ratio assay, parallel line assay, four-parameter (logistics) fit, and integration of the area under the curve have been used. Each statistical method has strengths and weaknesses. The parallel line assay accepts data from assays with non-ideal dose response curves, provides a similarity comparison, and evaluates the relative potency in the most linear portion of the curve. The parallel line method is recommended for evaluation of in vitro assays for potency determination of U.S. licensed veterinary biologics.

Animal Testing Alternatives↗

A comparison of experienced clinical observers and statistical tests in detection of progressive visual field loss in glaucoma using automated perimetry.

The visual fields of 30 patients (subjects) with glaucoma were sent to six experienced clinicians (observers). Each subject had at least four visual field examinations on the OCTOPUS 201 automated perimeter spanning at least one year. Each observer was asked to review the visual field data of each subject and determine whether the visual fields were stable, improved, or worse over time. The visual field data were then analyzed using six different statistical models. In only 15 of the 30 subjects did at least five of the six human observers agree on the behavior of the visual field. Agreement among the statistical models was better, with at least five of the six models agreeing on 22 of the 30 subjects. It was concluded that there is, at present, no validated technique for detecting progressive visual field loss in glaucoma using automated perimetry when relatively few visual fields are available for analysis.

Analysis of Variance↗

Quantitative genetics of secondary hip joint osteoarthritis in a Labrador Retriever-Greyhound pedigree.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the quantitative inheritance of secondary hip joint osteoarthritis in a canine pedigree. ANIMALS: 137 Labrador Retrievers, Greyhounds, and mixed-breed dogs. PROCEDURES: Necropsy scores ranging from 0 to 4 were obtained for each hip joint. Seven unaffected Greyhounds with normal hip joint conformation were also used for genetic modeling, but were not euthanized. Sixty-six male and 71 female dogs were allocated to 2 groups (< or = 12 months of age and > 12 months of age). Statistical models were developed to establish the inheritance pattern of hip joint osteoarthritis that developed secondary to hip dysplasia. RESULTS: 62 dogs had evidence of osteoarthritis in a hip joint, and 75 had no evidence of osteoarthritis. After sex was adjusted for, the necropsy score was found to be inherited additively but without dominance. Each Labrador Retriever allele increased the necropsy score by 0.7 to 0.9 points, compared with the Greyhound allele, and male sex increased the necropsy score 0.74 over female sex. Approximately 10% of the variation in necropsy score was attributable to the litter of puppies' origin. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Because secondary hip joint osteoarthritis is inherited additively, selection pressure could be applied to reduce its incidence. Similar statistical models can be used in linkage and association mapping to detect the genes in the underlying quantitative trait loci that contribute to hip joint osteoarthritis.

Age Factors↗