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A hierarchical mixture of Markov models for finding biologically active metabolic paths using gene expression and protein classes.

With the recent development of experimental high-throughput techniques, the type and volume of accumulating biological data have extremely increased these few years. Mining from different types of data might lead us to find new biological insights. We present a new methodology for systematically combining three different datasets to find biologically active metabolic paths/patterns. This method consists of two steps: First it synthesizes metabolic paths from a given set of chemical reactions, which are already known and whose enzymes are co-expressed, in an efficient manner. It then represents the obtained metabolic paths in a more comprehensible way through estimating parameters of a probabilistic model by using these synthesized paths. This model is built upon an assumption that an entire set of chemical reactions corresponds to a Markov state transition diagram. Furthermore, this model is a hierarchical latent variable model, containing a set of protein classes as a latent variable, for clustering input paths in terms of existing knowledge of protein classes. We tested the performance of our method using a main pathway of glycolysis, and found that our method achieved higher predictive performance for the issue of classifying gene expressions than those obtained by other unsupervised methods. We further analyzed the estimated parameters of our probabilistic models, and found that biologically active paths were clustered into only two or three patterns for each expression experiment type, and each pattern suggested some new long-range relations in the glycolysis pathway.

Computer Simulation↗

Evidence for autosomal dominant inheritance and race-specific heterogeneity in early-onset periodontitis.

Early-onset periodontitis (EOP) refers to a group of severe periodontal diseases with age of onset near puberty that are characterized by rapid destruction of the tissues supporting the teeth in otherwise healthy individuals. Mixed model segregation analyses of 100 families, ascertained through 104 probands with EOP, were carried out to test major locus and multifactorial hypotheses for the etiology of EOP. Heterogeneity tests were used to compare the parameter estimates and conclusions obtained in Black families from those from non-Black families. The data in these families confirmed that the often-reported female preponderance of EOP appears to be an ascertainment bias. The segregation analysis results were consistent with an autosomal major locus being sufficient to explain the family patterns of EOP in the entire dataset, and also in both the Black and non-Black subsets. A dominant mode of transmission was most likely, with penetrance of about 70%. Although the etiologic conclusions were the same for Black and non-Black families, there was significant heterogeneity in parameter estimates. In particular the Black allele frequency was 0.016 versus the non-Black frequency of 0.001.

Adolescent↗

A general model for the analysis of mark-resight, mark-recapture, and band-recovery data under tag loss.

Estimates of waterfowl demographic parameters often come from resighting studies where birds fit with individually identifiable neck collars are resighted at a distance. Concerns have been raised about the effects of collar loss on parameter estimates, and the reliability of extrapolating from collared individuals to the population. Models previously proposed to account for collar loss do not allow survival or harvest parameters to depend on neck collar presence or absence. Also, few models have incorporated recent advances in mark-recapture theory that allow for multiple states or auxiliary encounters such as band recoveries. We propose a multistate model for tag loss in which the presence or absence of a collar is considered as a state variable. In this framework, demographic parameters are corrected for tag loss and questions related to collar effects on survival and recovery rates can be addressed. Encounters of individuals between closed sampling periods also can be incorporated in the analysis. We discuss data requirements for answering questions related to tag loss and sampling designs that lend themselves to this purpose. We illustrate the application of our model using a study of lesser snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens).

Animals↗

Pharmacokinetics of midazolam in neonates undergoing extracorporeal membrane oxygenation.

BACKGROUND: Although the pharmacokinetics of midazolam in critically ill children has been described, there are no such reports in extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. METHODS: The pharmacokinetics of midazolam and 1-hydroxy midazolam after continuous infusion (50-250 microg. kg(-1). h(-1)) were determined in 20 neonates undergoing extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Patients were randomized into two groups: group 1 (n = 10) received midazolam extracorporeally (into the circuit), and group 2 received drug via central or peripheral access. Blood samples for determination of plasma concentrations were taken at baseline, 2, 4, 6, 12, 18, and 24 h, then every 12 h. Population pharmacokinetic analysis and model building was conducted using WinNonMix (Pharsight Corporation, Mountain View, CA). The 1-hydroxy midazolam/midazolam metabolic ratio was determined as a surrogate marker of cytochrome P450 3A activity. RESULTS: The parameter estimates (n = 19) were based on a one-compartment model with time-dependent change in volume of distribution. Volume (mean +/- standard error) expanded monoexponentially from the onset of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation to a maximum value, 0.8 l +/- 0.5 and 4.1 +/- 0.5 l/kg, respectively. Consequently, plasma half-life was substantially prolonged (median [range]) from onset to steady-state: 6.8 (2.2-39.8) and 33.3 (7.4-178) h, respectively. Total body clearance was determined as (mean +/- standard error) 1.4 +/- 0.15 ml. kg-1. min-1. The median metabolic ratio was 0.17 (0.03-0.9). No significant differences were observed between the two groups with respect to parameter estimates. Simulations of plasma concentration profiles revealed excess levels at conventional doses. CONCLUSIONS: These results reveal significantly increased volume of distribution and plasma half-life in neonates receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Altered kinetics may reflect sequestration of midazolam by components of the extracorporeal membrane oxygenation circuit.

Algorithms↗

Population pharmacokinetics of ceftizoxime in premature newborns.

The population pharmacokinetic parameters of ceftizoxime were determined in 50 premature newborns less than 1 week of age (birth weight = 1.8 +/- 0.6 kg) with a clinical diagnosis of suspected sepsis. Each infant received ceftizoxime 25 mg/kg every 12 h intravenously over 30 min for a total of 6 doses. Serum concentrations of ceftizoxime were assayed by HPLC at 0.5, 1, 2.5 and 11.5 h or at 0.5, 1.5, 4.5 and 11.5 h after the first and the sixth dose. A total of 184 serum concentrations following the first dose and 160 following the sixth dose were fit separately and then collectively to a one-compartment model using NONMEM. The separately estimated parameters were not significantly different between the first and the sixth dose. The final parameter estimates were 27.1 ml/h/kg, 333 ml/kg and 8.5 h for clearance, volume of distribution and half-life, respectively. Other factors including gestational and postnatal age were not associated with alterations in ceftizoxime clearance. That the large variability in clearance was decreased from a coefficient of variation of 80 to 50% warrants dosing premature infants on the basis of body weight. The results of this study suggest that 25 mg/kg ceftizoxime every 12 h appears to be an appropriate dosing regimen for premature neonates.

Ceftizoxime↗

Techniques and parameters for estimating radiation exposure and dose in cardiac computed tomography.

With increasing clinical use of cardiac CT imaging it is important that all health care providers referring for or administering such examinations are familiar with the concepts and values of radiation dosimetry in CT as well as with the basic principles of radiation protection. There are important technical differences pertinent to radiation dose between the CT scanner types that are currently being used for imaging of the heart and coronary arteries. As a result of these differences, the radiation dose typically is higher when a cardiac examination is performed with multidetector-row CT (MDCT) than when it is performed with electron beam CT. Several techniques have been described to reduce radiation dose of MDCT imaging by varying the X-ray tube current during a CT examination. The volume computed tomographic dose index (CTDIvol), the dose length product (DLP), and the effective dose (E) are the most useful parameters to describe and compare radiation doses received from cardiac CT examinations. When comparing radiation doses between scanning protocols and scanner types, the degree of image noise must be considered. Diagnostic, rather than aesthetic, quality of images should be the most important factor guiding the development of scanning protocols for cardiac CT imaging. Cardiac CT examinations should be ordered only by qualified health care providers, and the ordering clinicians should be aware of their responsibility of weighing risks of the radiation exposure against the expected benefits.

Heart↗

Testing nonlinear regression parameters under heteroscedastic, normally distributed errors.

Likelihood ratio tests for parameters estimated assuming normally distributed errors are examined under a variety of homoscedastic and heteroscedastic variance assumptions. It is assumed that gamma ij, the jth observation from the ith population, is distributed as N[mu(chi ij, beta i), (sigma i mu(chi ij, beta i)theta i)2]. By varying sigma 2i and theta i, this model contains the most obvious examples of homoscedastic and heteroscedastic variability. Under this model, the null hypothesis of equal beta i's can easily be tested using the likelihood ratio criterion. Also considered is the two-sample chi-square statistic, chi 2t = U'S-1 U, where U is the difference vector of nonlinear least squares parameter estimates and S is an estimate of the covariance matrix of U. Monte Carlo simulation using the von Bertalanffy growth curve as an example is used to evaluate several test statistics for Type I error rates under different sampling assumptions.

Biometry↗

Data error covariance in matched-field geoacoustic inversion.

Many approaches to geoacoustic inversion are based implicitly on the assumptions that data errors are Gaussian-distributed and spatially uncorrelated (i.e., have a diagonal covariance matrix). However, the latter assumption is often not valid due to theory errors, and can lead to reduced accuracy for geoacoustic parameter estimates and underestimation of parameter uncertainties. This paper examines the effects of data error (residual) covariance in matched-field geoacoustic inversion. An inversion approach is developed based on a nonparametric method of estimating the full covariance matrix (including off-diagonal terms) from the data residuals and explicitly including this covariance in the misfit function. Qualitative and quantitative statistical tests for Gaussianity and for correlations in complex residuals are considered to validate the inversion results. The approach is illustrated for Bayesian geoacoustic inversion of broadband, vertical-array acoustic data measured in the Mediterranean Sea.

Journal Article↗

Accounting for covariate measurement error in a Cox model analysis of recurrence of depression.

When a covariate measured with error is used as a predictor in a survival analysis using the Cox model, the parameter estimate is usually biased. In clinical research, covariates measured without error such as treatment procedure or sex are often used in conjunction with a covariate measured with error. In a randomized clinical trial of two types of treatments, we account for the measurement error in the covariate, log-transformed total rapid eye movement (REM) activity counts, in a Cox model analysis of the time to recurrence of major depression in an elderly population. Regression calibration and two variants of a likelihood-based approach are used to account for measurement error. The likelihood-based approach is extended to account for the correlation between replicate measures of the covariate. Using the replicate data decreases the standard error of the parameter estimate for log(total REM) counts while maintaining the bias reduction of the estimate. We conclude that covariate measurement error and the correlation between replicates can affect results in a Cox model analysis and should be accounted for. In the depression data, these methods render comparable results that have less bias than the results when measurement error is ignored.

Aged↗

Biochemical and physiological parameters and estimated work output in draught horses pulling loads for long periods.

A study was undertaken in five draught horses of 648 +/- 33 kg body weight to find the effects of continuously pulling loads on their cardiovascular, respiratory and metabolic responses. A cart equipped with an odometer, for measuring distance, and a hydraulic dynamometer, for measuring draught force, was used. Heart and respiration rates and rectal temperatures were recorded. Blood samples for measuring arterial and venous pH and blood gases, haemoglobin, glucose and lactic acid concentrations and the serum activity of the enzymes creatine phosphokinase (CK), lactate dehydrogenase, aspartate aminotransferase and alkaline phosphatase were taken before exercise and immediately after each journey (morning and afternoon) of the daily work. Draught exercise, with loads which generated forces of between 0.57 and 0.59 kN, at speeds of 1.60 to 2.11 m/s, for 8 h daily for five consecutive days, with resting intervals of 10 min each hour, was well tolerated. Exercise tolerance was evaluated from the recovery from the changes observed in the biochemical and physiological parameters induced by the work. The analysis of these showed that, when the horses were subjected to prolonged periods of resting, their loss of fitness for work was shown by significant increases in the serum activity of muscle-derived enzymes and in blood lactate concentrations during the first day of work. However, over the following days the horses adapted to the work, so that the decreases in serum enzyme activities and blood lactate concentrations were reduced. Since similar observations have been described for racehorses, the determination of blood lactate concentrations and the serum activities of muscle-derived enzymes, specifically CK, seem to be good indicators of fitness in draught horses.

Acid-Base Equilibrium↗

Open capture-recapture models with heterogeneity: I. Cormack-Jolly-Seber model.

In open population capture-recapture studies, it is usually assumed that similar animals (e.g., of the same sex and age group) have similar survival rates and capture probabilities. These assumptions are generally perceived to be an oversimplification, and they can lead to incorrect model selection and biased parameter estimates. Allowing for individual variability in survival and capture probabilities among apparently similar animals is now becoming possible, due to advances in closed population models and improved computing power. This article presents a flexible framework of likelihood-based models which allow for individual heterogeneity in survival and capture rates. Heterogeneity is modeled using finite mixtures, which have enough flexibility of distribution shape to accommodate a wide variety of different patterns of individual variation. The models condition on the first capture of each animal, and include as a special case the Cormack-Jolly-Seber model. Model selection is done either using Akaike's information criterion or by likelihood ratio tests, making available checks of different influences on survival rates. Bias in parameter estimates is reduced by including individual heterogeneity. Model selection and bias reduction are important in population studies and for making informed management decisions.

Animals↗

Conclusions of segregation analysis for family data generated under two-locus models.

Susceptibility to a disease may involve the interactive effect of two genes. What conclusions will be drawn by segregation analysis in such a case? To answer this question, we considered a set of two-locus models and the corresponding exact distribution for 300 families. We investigated the conclusions and parameter estimations obtained for this sample, by comparing the likelihood expectations of the unified model and of more restricted models. In many cases, segregation analysis leads to the conclusion of a major gene effect, with or without a polygenic component--usually without a polygenic component in multiplicative models (i.e., where two genes have a multiplicative effect) and with such a component in nonmultiplicative models. For all the models considered, existence of a major gene effect is supported by transmission probability tests; there is evidence for transmission and agreement with the hypothesis of Mendelian transmission. Accordingly, there is no means of detecting that the effect of a major gene, with or without a polygenic component, does not correspond to the correct model. In addition, the parameter estimates for the major gene do not correspond to the characteristics of either of the two genes of the true model. This may substantially affect further linkage analysis.

Alleles↗

The resolution of genotype x environment interaction in segregation analysis of nuclear families.

A model is presented for the effects of one or two loci, a measured index of the environment and genotype x environment (G x E) interaction of risk for a discontinuous trait. Initial properties of the model are explored for the single locus case, with and without the effects of environment and G x E interaction. Seven data sets were simulated, each comprising 500 nuclear families on whom an environmental index has been measured. Maximum-likelihood estimation procedures were used to obtain parameter estimates under seven models for each data set. Likelihood ratio tests were constructed, and in all cases it was possible to identify the "correct" model for the simulated data. The matrices of information realized showed that the parameters could be estimated with acceptable precision and that the effects of genes, environment, and G x E interaction could be resolved in the simulated populations. The effects on conventional segregation analysis of ignoring the environment and G x E are considered.

Biometry↗

Prediction of transdermal flux of prodrugs of 5-fluorouracil, theophylline, and 6-mercaptopurine with a series/parallel model.

Multiple regression analysis of fluxes from suspensions in isopropyl myristate (J(M)) as a function of molecular weights (MW) and solubilities in isopropyl myristate (S(IPM)) and water (S(AQ)) were performed on a data set of 41 compounds (n = 41) comprising 39 prodrugs of 5-fluorouracil (5-FU), theophylline (Th), and 6-mercaptopurine (6-MP), in addition to 5-FU and Th, using four models. Two series/parallel models have been developed that allow an aqueous-only path in parallel with a lipid-only path and with a lipid-aqueous series path for the permeation of solutes through skin: log J(M) = log ¿1/[1/(aS(LIPID) 10(PhiMW)) + 1/(bS(AQ)/MW(1/2))] + cS(LIPID)10(PhiMW) + dS(AQ)/MW(1/2)¿ where a, b, c, and d are coefficients for flux through the lipid and aqueous portions of the series path, the lipid-only path, and the aqueous-only path, respectively, and Phi is the dependence of diffusivity in lipid on MW. In the first series/parallel model, S(LIPID) was predicted by S(IPM), and in the second, solvatochromic series/parallel model, S(LIPID) was predicted by S(IPM)(k MW + Omegai) where Omega(i) is the sum of the solvatochromic terms alpha, beta, pi, and R(2), and k is the coefficient for the dependence of partitioning on MW. Using the n = 41 solutions, the coefficients for the aqueous-only path were very small or not different from zero in the two series/parallel models, so only two-path series/parallel models were compared with the solvatochromic and transformed Potts-Guy models where a homogeneous barrier to permeation was assumed. For each model, one compound at a time was omitted from the data set and new parameter estimates were obtained for these 41-1 solutions and used to predict log J(M) for the omitted compound. The average errors of prediction of log J(M) (experimental log J(M) - predicted log J(M)) for the four models were 0.134 for the series/parallel (r(2) = 0.937), 0.127 for the solvatochromic series/parallel (r(2) = 0.967), 0.150 for the solvatochromic (r(2) = 0.950), and 0.134 log units for the transformed Potts-Guy model (r(2) = 0.944). Thus, the solvatochromic series/parallel model provides fit and predictive ability comparable to or slightly superior to previous models that assumed homogeneity of the diffusional barrier to flux in the rate-determining step, provides further theoretical support against the existence of a high capacity aqueous-only path, and provides further insight into the physicochemical properties that should be incorporated into solutes to optimize their flux. Using the solvatochromic series/parallel model, the parameter estimates for the n = 41 solution were used to calculate the flux of each compound through the two paths. For compounds with log partition coefficients (K(IPM:AQ)) of <0.8, permeation was mostly by the lipid-aqueous series path; for compounds with log K(IPM:AQ) >1.0, permeation was mostly by the lipid-only path; the lipid-aqueous series path exhibited the higher carrying capacity. (c) 2000 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Fluorouracil↗

A retrospective analysis using Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate recommended ceftazidime dosing regimens in healthy volunteers, patients with cystic fibrosis, and patients in the intensive care unit.

BACKGROUND: Over the past decades, the relationship between the pharmacokinetic (PK) properties of antibiotics, MICs, and clinical effects has been increasingly well understood. Interpatient variability in the PK profile, however, has only recently been recognized as a major factor in predicting the outcome in individual patients and establishing breakpoints for clinical susceptibility. Most predictions to date have used data from healthy volunteers. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to perform Monte Carlo simulations of the PK/pharmacodynamic relationships of ceftazidime to assess whether the probability of target attainment (PTA) differed significantly between 3 distinct populations. To that end, population PK models of ceftazidime were developed for the 3 populations. METHODS: Serum concentration-time data from earlier studies in healthy volunteers (n = 8), patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) (n = 17), and patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) (n = 6) were used to obtain population PK parameter estimates and covariance matrices using the nonparametric adaptive grid program. The PTA for each group was obtained using 10,000 patient simulations for dosing regimens of 1000 and 2000 mg q8h over a range of MICs and percentages of time that concentrations of unbound drug remained above the MIC (%T > MIC). RESULTS: The relationship between the MIC and the population mean %T > MIC, as well as the PTA profiles, differed markedly between the 3 groups as a result of both differences and variations in V(d) and Cl. Breakpoints based on a 100% PTA for a %T > MIC of 60% were < or = 4, 0.5, and 0.5 mg/L in healthy volunteers, patients with CF, and patients in the ICU, respectively. However, when PTA values between 90% and 100% were reevaluated and differences in clinical dosing regimens were accounted for, the resulting breakpoints were identical in the 3 groups. CONCLUSIONS: PK parameter estimates for ceftazidime based on data from a small group of healthy volunteers resulted in a clinical susceptibility breakpoint comparable to those for patients with CF and patients in the ICU. Based on the study findings, this breakpoint would be < or = 4 mg/L. Patients suspected of having unusually high rates of clearance should be monitored closely.

Adult↗

Modelling the VO2 kinetic response to heavy intensity exercise in children.

The purpose of this study was to apply a series of mathematical models in order to investigate the nature of the kinetic response to heavy intensity exercise with children and identify a suitable model with which to estimate parameters of the response. Sixty two children (35 male, 27 female aged 10-15 years) completed four transitions from baseline pedalling to 40% of the difference between their previously determined anaerobic threshold and peak VO2 on an electronically braked cycle ergometer. Initially three models were fitted to the averaged response profiles following the end of phase 1. and their residuals compared; 1, a single exponential with a delay term; 2, an exponential and linear term with independent delays; and 3, a double exponential with independent delays. Up to 95% of the response profiles were better fitted by either model 2 or 3 (p < 0.05), and model 3 was a statistically better fit (p < 0.05) than model 2 in 77% of cases. Residual inspection confirmed the superior fit by model 3. A fourth model which consisted of a single exponential with a delay term was fitted within the phase 2 fitting window. Estimated parameters (A1 and tau1), using model 4 were not significantly different from model 3, and model 4 was identified as the model of choice due to the wide confidence intervals in tau2 and A2 using model 3. It was concluded that the nature of the response to heavy intensity exercise in children is similar to that previously reported with adults and that the response should be modelled accordingly.

Adolescent↗

Cohort size and maximum likelihood estimation of mortality parameters.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of cohort size on maximum likelihood estimates of mortality parameters. Recent experimental investigations have stressed the importance of large cohorts for detecting leveling off of mortality rates at older ages. In the present study, emphasis was placed on evaluation of relatively small cohorts (about 150-300 individuals). Deaths were simulated under the assumption of the frailty mortality model. Two different parameter sets that resulted in differences in mean life span of more than twofold were used for simulations. Our smallest cohorts yielded parameter estimates that had generally good statistical properties, but relatively large standard errors. For tests of hypotheses concerning equality of parameters among populations or experimental treatments, empirical standard errors (obtained from several cohorts) were preferable to asymptotic standard errors (obtained for single cohorts). In particular, empirical standard errors yielded reliable type I error rates.

Cohort Studies↗

Analysis of binding at a single spatially localized cluster of binding sites by fluorescence recovery after photobleaching.

Cells contain many subcellular structures in which specialized proteins locally cluster. Binding interactions within such clusters may be analyzed in live cells using models for fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (FRAP). Here we analyze a three-dimensional FRAP model that accounts for a single spatially localized cluster of binding sites in the presence of both diffusion and impermeable boundaries. We demonstrate that models completely ignoring the spatial localization of binding yield poor estimates for the binding parameters within the binding site cluster. In contrast, we find that ignoring only the restricted axial height of the binding-site cluster is far less detrimental, thereby enabling the use of computationally less expensive models. We also identify simplified solutions to the FRAP model for limiting behaviors where either diffusion or binding dominate. We show how ignoring a role for diffusion can sometimes produce serious errors in binding parameter estimation. We illustrate application of the method by analyzing binding of a transcription factor, the glucocorticoid receptor, to a tandem array of mouse mammary tumor virus promoter sites in live cells, obtaining an estimate for an in vivo binding constant (10(-7) M), and a first approximation of an upper bound on the transcription-factor residence time at the promoter (approximately 170 ms). These FRAP analysis tools will be important for measuring key cellular binding parameters necessary for a complete and accurate description of the networks that regulate cellular behavior.

Adenocarcinoma↗