PubMed Health⌕ Search

SEARCH · PubMed Health

Results for “forecasting”

Explore indexed PubMed citations for clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health research. Read source abstracts and follow each citation to its original PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,423 records · Page 79Linked to original sources

Influenza vaccination in Mississippi, 1992-2003: trends, subgroup comparisons, and forecast.

OBJECTIVES: We examined longitudinal trends in relative frequency of influenza vaccination in the state of Mississippi. METHODS: An influenza vaccination questionnaire was used to assess status among 20,078 adults who were sampled in random-digit-dialed telephone surveys administered in 1992, 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, and 2003. Time trends were evaluated using logistic regression models in which the status of influenza vaccination was regressed on the respondents' gender, race, education, and household income. RESULTS: In Mississippi, influenza vaccination rates increased substantially during 1992-2003 irrespective of gender, race/ethnicity, age, education, and household income. The increases showed a significant linear trend. Non-Hispanic blacks were significantly less likely to have been vaccinated for influenza compared to non-Hispanic whites without accounting for gender, age, education, and household income. Having a college degree was associated with higher vaccination rates among older Mississippians after adjusting for other factors. CONCLUSIONS: Although vaccination coverage is increasing, the national goal for 2010 does not appear achievable without new initiatives. Meanwhile, we should continue to provide funding for the immunization program and to educate the population regarding their compliance.

Adolescent↗

Drug forecast: memantine, prototype of a new approach to treatment of dementia.

OBJECTIVE: To review the first clinically useful N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) inhibitor for the treatment of dementia, memantine. DATA SOURCE: A MEDLINE/PUBMED search was conducted to identify pertinent studies, case reports, letters, and reviews in the English language. All articles published from 1950 to March 2003 were reviewed. Additional references were obtained from the bibliographies of these articles. STUDY SELECTION: All studies evaluating any aspect of memantine in humans. DATA SYNTHESIS: The excitatory amino acid neurotransmitter glutamate is felt to play a role in neuroinflammation and destruction of cholinergic neurons associated with dementia. Memantine is an NMDA receptor antagonist which partially blocks glutamatergic neurotransmission in the central nervous system (CNS). It is a selective, moderate affinity, noncompetitive receptor blocker that rapidly associates with and dissociates from the NMDA receptor. Memantine, that is usually dosed once or twice daily, is predominantly eliminated as unchanged drug via the renal route (renal clearance accounts for 90% of total body clearance). Use of memantine is associated with significant improvements in a number of cognitive, functional, and behavioral assessment scales used in the evaluation of cognition-enhancing drugs in dementia. Adverse effects of memantine are generally referable to the CNS and include depression, insomnia, akathisia, agitation, dizziness, drowsiness, restlessness, and hyperexcitability. CONCLUSION: Although there is no cure for dementia, memantine may delay disease progression and improve functioning to a clinically significant extent. However, efficacy has not been consistent within trials and no comparative data with acetylcholinesterase inhibitors (AchEI) are available. In addition, there are no controlled data available regarding combination memantine-AchEI therapy. Further study data are awaited.

Journal Article↗

[Mechanisms leading to muscle degeneration: molecular mechanisms and therapeutical forecasts].

In inclusion body myositis (IBM), there is muscular amyloidogenesis and inflammation. A related disorder is due to alterations in the ubiquitin pathway involving the valsolin-containing protein leading to IBM, dementia and Paget's disease. Alteration in the dystrophin glycoprotein complex leads to several muscular dystrophies (MD), and the pathogenesis of dystrophin related MD as well as certain limb girdle MD are discussed. Therapeutic strategies involving inhibition of proteolytic cascades as well as inhibition of a negative regulator of muscle growth (myostatin) are briefly introduced. Finally, molecular aspects of the most common form of adult myopathy, myotonic MD, are discussed. This disease is caused by an aberrant splicing mechanism and interference thereof may be useful in designing therapeutic strategies.

Humans↗

To construct a forecasting model of the anthropometric chronic disease risk factor score.

BACKGROUND: Many health indices have a relationship with anthropometric indices. This research attempts to provide a new measurement: a chronic disease risk factor score built into the regression model. This new model will help people visualize their health status and get multiple information during the process of the healthy examination. METHODS: Data from 8,034 subjects were collected from the data bank of the Health Examination Center in Chang Gung Memorial Hospital. Related anthropometric indices and biochemical factors were selected and used to construct a regression model. The anthropometric indices used were body mass index, waist hip ratio, waist hip area ratio, health index, waist leg ratio and trunk leg ratio. Biochemical data included blood pressure, glucose, triglyceride, cholesterol and uric acid, combined to form an anthropometric chronic disease risk factor score. RESULTS: Subjects under 45 years of age had the highest chronic disease risk factor score, and were selected to construct a regression model. The R-square of this model is 0.355; its predictive error is near 12%. After verification with a testing group, the regression model could be used to predict health status. CONCLUSION: The purpose of this study was to develop a new anthropometric chronic disease risk factor score by combining anthropometric indices and biochemical data. A multiple regression model was used to illustrate health status via anthropometric chronic disease risk factor scores for the subjects participating in the health examination. The results show that the chronic disease risk factor score is useful for prescribing relevant medical treatment as well as for other research.

Adult↗

[Forecasting parameters of acute chemical toxicity according to in vitro conformation changes of proteins].

The authors analyze experimental data on in vitro effects induced by chemicals that were used throughout MEIC toxicologic studies in ovalbumin and acetylcholinesterase of human RBC. Influence on proteins is compared to acute toxicity caused by the chemicals in humans and various cell lines. The conclusion is that the method is prospective for screening of acute chemical toxicity signs in humans.

Acetylcholinesterase↗

[Description of bone mineral density distribution in women and the research of epidemiology forecast model of bone mineral density in women].

OBJECTIVE: To explore the distribution of bone mineral density (BMD) with age and to depict independent effects of age, year since menopause, height and weight on BMD and then to develop predictive model based on such determinants. METHODS: 3008 pair of female twins were enrolled and their sociodemographic and envionmental data were collected with a standard questionnaire. Dual-energy X ray absorptionmetry (DPX) was used to measure subjects' BMD of all bones. Statistic analysis were done by applying SAS 6.12 and SPLUS software. RESULTS: The outcome variables studied here included BMDs of second to forth lumbar spine, total spine, femoral neck, wards' triangle, trochanter, arm and total body. Our results showed that BMDs of all sites changed with age similarly, but both the age when peak bone mass reached and the bone mass loss varied among different site. Those made of trabecular mainly reached peak bone mass earlier and began to bone mass loss earlier, and the loss rates were higher. BMD values was affected by age, years since menopause, height and weight, but the independent effect of each variables was nonlinear over the whole age range studied here; All subjects were classfied into three groups according to their age, and predictive models for each bone site were developed. These models were tested and found that the predictive values of bone mass density, obtained by these predictive model, were similar to their actual values. CONCLUSION: Our result showed that BMD values can be predicted by some easily measure variables based on the predictive models provided in this study, which provides a simple method to diagnose Osteoporosis for rural female.

Adolescent↗

[Efficacy of artificial urination in forecasting patient's ability to urinate after acute urinary retention].

74 patients aged 50-85 years with acute urinary retention caused by benign prostate hyperplasia have been examined. On admission to clinic, the patients were catheterized with a three-way catheter 20 Ch and assigned doxazosine 2 mg/day orally. On the third day of drainage a complex examination including 6 tests was carried out. Before each of the test the bladder was filled up with a saline (37 degrees C) to a maximum cystometric volume. Artificial voiding in patients presented itself an emptying of a bladder via a specially prolonged urethral catheter with consequent uplifting to the height of 40, 80 and 120 cm from the pubis level (in standing position). Ability and efficacy of artificial voiding were considered.

Acute Disease↗

In vitro simulated pharmacokinetics profiles: forecasting antibiotic optimal dosage.

Sisomicin (SMN) and cefotaxime (CTX) antimicrobial effect (AME) kinetics were studied under in vitro stimulation the drug monoexponential pharmacokinetic profiles mimicking normal and impaired elimination of SMN or CTX administered in various doses to humans. Similar general shape of the AME intensity or duration vs the SMN and CTX AUC curves, i.e. the appearance of the "bacteriostatic" and "bactericidal" phases, was established irrespective of the antibiotic elimination rate. At the same time the AME vs AUC curves simulated normal and delayed drug elimination did not match. Thus, AME is defined not only the AUC value but also the peculiarities of the pharmacokinetic profile and, subsequently, the term of "antibiotic efficient concentration" is unseparable of the pharmacokinetic profile.

Anti-Bacterial Agents↗