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PubMed1979

The effects of demographic transition on the opportunity for selection: changes during the last century in Italy.

The index of opportunity for selection proposed by Crow has been calculated for the Italian population during the last century. The evolution of its two components, the pre-reproductive mortality and the variance in fertility, has been also analysed and compared with similar data for the United States. The results clearly show the relevance of socio-economic changes to the evolution of selective patterns in our species; in particular the relative incidence of mortality and fertility to selection intensity: the total index has in fact been reduced by 75% during the last century, the relative amount due to fertility increasing from 57 to 89%. The probable different relevance of genetic factors in the two components has also been discussed.

Demography↗
PubMed1991

The demographic transition in Kenya: a portent for Africa?

It is contended that issues of population growth will continue to be an important frontier of international health. Kenya's case is examined and its achievements in arresting its population growth are analyzed. The case is made that Kenya's experience is transferable to other countries in Africa.

Adult↗
PubMed2001

Increasing fertility in cohabiting unions: evidence for the second demographic transition in the United States?

As cohabitation becomes increasingly common and accepted, one might expect the meaning of this arrangement to change. In some countries in Europe (e.g., Sweden), as cohabitation became more prevalent, it moved from a deviant status to an acceptable alternative to marriage. Will the same thing happen in the United States? To investigate this question, I examine increases in the proportion of births occurring in cohabiting unions, using data from the 1987-1988 National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH) and the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). The standardization and decomposition procedure shows that most of the growth in the proportion of births to cohabitors is the result of increases in the proportion of women cohabiting, rather than changes in union formation behaviors surrounding pregnancies.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2002

Population momentum for gradual demographic transitions: an alternative approach.

In this article, I derive a simple formula for approximating the ultimate size of a population that undergoes a gradual transition to replacement fertility. I model the fertility transition by specifying a linear frontier on the Lexis surface across which a change in fertility is instantaneous. Gradual transitions result from variations in the slope of this frontier. This framework can be used to reproduce and understand previous studies of population momentum and gradual transitions.

Demography↗