Expert judgment about uncertainty: Bayesian decision making in realistic settings.
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Militarism is a rapidly growing factor in that complex network of social, political and economic causes of ill health among the world's poor. This complex of causes is driving a spiral of class inequality, political instability, and military repression in many less developed nations. These nations share a uniform security doctrine, which has major health impacts. Here five impacts are noted: diversion of resources, suppression of dissent, military classism, environment damage, and crime and terrorism. The demand stimulated by the recent Persian Gulf War for expensive, high-technology weapons may deepen Third World debt and fuel the cycle of poverty, ill health, social unrest, and military oppression. International health workers need to take account of the causes and effects of militarism in their studies of health problems. Their work could be aided by organizations that promote disarmament and environment preservation.
Halons have been used for decades by the Air Force for a variety of fire protection applications. Their unique combination of effectiveness, low toxicity, ease of use, cleanliness, and low manufacturing cost appear to make them ideal for many situations. Unfortunately, they also deplete the earth's protective ozone layer and, consequently, their production is being phased out globally under the Montreal Protocol. United States legislation implementing the terms of the Protocol required an end to production of ozone depleting chemicals (ODCs) by the year 2000. In November 1991, the Air Force issued a policy requiring an end to ODC purchases by the end of 1997. In February 1992, President Bush announced an even more accelerated phaseout to 1995. The Montreal Protocol is expected to be amended to reflect the more aggressive US phaseout date. This accelerated date increases the urgency of the Air Force's search for ODC alternatives, especially for mission critical uses for which no alternatives have yet been identified. The search is complicated by the fact that the requirements an alternative must meet are unique to their specific application. This paper will provide an overview of the most important Air Force halon uses and review Air Force strategies for ensuring mission continuity until alternatives can be developed.
Finding safe, environmentally acceptable, and effective replacements for Halon fire-extinguishing agents and other chemicals banned by the Montreal Protocol is a formidable task for Air Force research and development organizations. One factor that makes this task a challenge is the uncertainty in relating toxicology studies in laboratory animals to the human situation. This uncertainty from toxicology studies affects the risk assessment process by calling for very conservative decisions. Because of this uncertainty, public pressure and politics also impact the regulatory process. The Air Force approach to assessing health hazards for Halon replacements is to provide scientific information that directly applies to the parts of the extrapolation process that are responsible for the most uncertainty. Most regulatory agencies readily incorporate scientific information, when it is available, which can reduce uncertainty. These Air Force studies will be used to provide realistic exposure levels for replacement chemicals which will allow mission accomplishment and provide safety for the worker and the populace.
Military toxicology evolved from needs identified during the World Wars. The Army, Navy and Air Force developed toxicological capabilities in response to their respective operational needs. These 3 previously separate military toxicology efforts have been integrated into Tri-Service Toxicology in response to the continually changing and growing operational needs of the military. The continual process of program development must be initiated in order for Tri-Service Toxicology to improve, grow and better serve its customers. Program development entails developing and maintaining good customer relationships and cooperative relationships with other governmental agencies, industry and academia. The benefits of identifying and obtaining customers and collaborators will substantially outweigh the costs incurred by committing to the implementation of program development within Tri-Service Toxicology.
Naphthoquine phosphate and artemisinine are two antimalarials developed in China. Both drugs have proven to be efficacious and well tolerated as monotherapy as well as in combination in patients suffering from malaria. The Co-naphthoquine, a novel antimalarial combination, is an oral fixed combination tablet of the naphthoquine phosphate and artemisinine. Artemisinin is characterised by a rapid onset of schizonticidal action and a short half-life. Parasite clearance is, however, often incomplete when it is employed as a single agent unless high dosages are used over several days, but such a regimen may reduce patient compliance and increase the danger of toxicity. Naphthoquine phosphate, by contrast, has a slower onset of action and a longer half-life, associated with a low recrudescence rate. The two components act synergistically in animal, and clinically provide more rapid relief of symptoms and a higher cure rate than either component alone. The combination tablet was initially developed by the Academy of Military Medical Sciences (AMMS), Beijing, China.
Phytoextraction techniques utilizing a sterile strain of Vetiver grass (Vetiveria zizanoides) along with soil amendments were evaluated for removing lead and other elements such as Zn, Cu, and Fe from the soil of a 50-year old active firing range at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Lead-contaminated soil (300-4500 ppm/kg) was collected, dried, placed in pots, fertilized, and used as a medium for growing transplanted Vetiver grass plants in a greenhouse. The uptake of metals by the plants was evaluated in response to various fertilization and pre-harvest treatment schemes. Baseline metal concentrations in the soil of all pots were measured prior to planting and when the plants were harvested. Plants grew better when fertilized with Osmocote fertilizer in comparison to plants fertilized with 10-10-10 (NPK) fertilizer. Application of a chelating agent, EDTA, one week prior to harvest significantly increased the amount of lead that was phytoextracted. Lead concentrations of up to 1390-1450 ppm/kg in tissue samples were detected. Maximum Pb levels were observed in root tissues. The addition of non-lethal doses of a slow-release herbicide in combination with EDTA did not appear to further enhance phytoextraction or the translocation of Pb into shoots. The study indicated that the use of Vetiver grass coupled with the use of chelating soil amendments has considerable potential for use as a remedial strategy for lead-contaminated soils such as those associated with firing ranges.
Explosives are released into the environment at production and processing facilities, as well as through field use. These compounds may be toxic at relatively low concentrations to a number of ecological receptors. A toxicity assessment was carried out on soils from an explosive-contaminated site at a Canadian Forces Area Training Center. Toxicity studies on soil organisms using endpoints such as microbial processes (potential nitrification activity, dehydrogenase activity, substrate-induced respiration, basal respiration), plant seedling and growth (Lactuca sativa and Hordeum vulgare), and earthworm (Eisenia andrei) growth and reproduction were carried out. Results showed that 1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazacyclooctane (HMX) was the principal polynitro-organic compound measured in soils. Soils from the contaminated site decreased microbial processes and earthworm reproduction; whereas plant growth was not significantly reduced. Toxicity to aquatic organisms and genotoxicity were also assessed on soil elutriates using Microtox (Vibrio fischeri), growth inhibition of algae (Selenastrum capricornutum), and SOS Chromotest (Escherichia coli). Results indicated that soil elutriates were generally not toxic to bacteria (Microtox) and algae. However, genotoxicity was found in a number of soil elutriate samples. Thus, the explosive-contaminated soils from the antitank firing range may represent a hazard for the soil organisms. Nevertheless, the global toxicity might have partially resulted from HMX as well as from other (not identified) contaminants such as heavy metals.
Sustainable use of military training lands requires understanding and prediction of the effects of military vehicles on vegetation. We examined the initial impacts of an 8-wheeled, light armored vehicle (LAV) on grassland vegetation at Fort Lewis, Washington. The LAV drove replicate spiral paths at two starting velocities, 10.3 and 5.1 m s(-1). The disturbed width (width of ground impacted by the tires) increased as turning radius decreased, but was unaffected by vehicle velocity. An inverse-exponential model predicted disturbed width (r(2)=0.68) at all turning radii for both velocities combined. In low-velocity spirals, and for straight tracking (turning radius>40 m) and moderate turns (radius 20-40 m) in high-velocity spirals, all vegetation damage was imprint (plants flattened by wheels). During sharp (radius <20 m), high-velocity turns, most or all of the disturbed width was scraped free of surface vegetation and soil, which was piled to the outside of each tire track. Total plant cover (all species) was not affected by track curvature in low-velocity spirals, but decreased in the order straight tracking>moderate turns>sharp turns in high-velocity spirals. In low-velocity spirals, post-tracking cover of several plant growth forms (non-native species, perennial species, sod-forming grasses) was similar to pre-tracking cover, but in high-velocity spirals, post-tracking cover of these growth forms decreased in the order straight > or =moderate=sharp. Cover of native species and forbs decreased more in high- than in low-velocity spirals, but was unaffected by curvature. Pre- and post-tracking cover of annual species, bunchgrasses, and shrubs was < or =3%. The most severe vegetation damage caused by operation of wheeled LAVs on grasslands is associated with sharp, high-velocity turns.
This paper describes a prototype of a compact environmental radiation surveillance instrument designed for a Ranger unmanned aerial vehicle. The instrument, which can be used for tracking a radioactive plume, mapping fallout and searching for point sources, consists of three different detector types (GM, NaI(Tl) and CZT) and an air sampling unit. In addition to the standard electronics for data acquisition, the system contains an onboard computer, a GPS receiver and environmental sensors, all enclosed in a single housing manufactured of fiberglass-reinforced composite material. The data collected during the flight is transmitted in real-time to the ground station via a TETRA radio network. The radiation surveillance unit is an independent module and as such can be used in, for example, airplanes, helicopters and cars.
Energetic materials used extensively both for civil and military applications. There are continuous research programmes worldwide to develop new materials with higher performance and enhanced insensitivity to thermal or shock insults than the existing ones in order to meet the requirements of future military and space applications. This review concentrates on recent advances in syntheses, potential formulations and space applications of potential compounds with respect to safety, performance and stability.
Recent improvements in the LC-MS interface have increased the sensitivity and selectivity of this instrument in the analysis of polar and thermally-labile aqueous constituents. Determination of RDX, nitroso-RDX metabolites, and other munitions was enhanced using LC-MS with solid-phase extraction, 15N3-RDX internal standard, and electrospray ionization (ESI) in negative ion mode. ESI produced a five-fold increase in detector response over atmospheric pressure chemical ionization (APCI) for the nitramine compounds, while the more energetic APCI produced more than twenty times the ESI response for nitroaromatics. Method detection limits in ESI for nitramines varied from 0.03 microgram l-1 for MNX to 0.05 microgram l-1 for RDX.
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In a previous paper, the author described a hypothetical development path of technical civilisations which has the following stages: planet dwellers, asteroid dwellers, interstellar travellers, interstellar space dwellers. In this paper, several scenarios are described which may cause the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation. Before such a transition may take place, certain space technologies must be developed fully (now these exist only in very preliminary forms): closed-cycle biological life support systems, space manufacturing systems, electrical propulsion systems. After mastering these technologies, certain events may provide the necessary financial means and social impetus for the foundation of the first asteroid-based colonies. In the first scenario, a rich minority group becomes persecuted and they decide to leave the Earth. In the second scenario, a "cold war"-like situation exists and the leaders of the superpowers order the creation of asteroid-based colonies to show off their empires' technological (and financial) grandiosity. In the third scenario, the basic situation is similar to the second one, but in this case the asteroids are not just occupied by the colonists. With several decades of hard work, an asteroid can be turned into a kinetic energy weapon which can provide the same (or greater) threat as the nuclear arsenal of a present superpower. In the fourth scenario, some military asteroids are moved to Earth-centred orbits and utilised as "solar power satellites" (SPS). This would be a quite economical solution because a "military asteroid" already contains most of the important components of an SPS (large solar collector arrays, power distribution devices, orbit modifying rocket engine), one should add only a large microwave transmitter.