[Survival functions and life tables at the origins of actuarial mathematics].
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"This paper introduces general methods for quantitative analysis of the role of population in environmental change. The approach is applicable over a wide range of environmental issues, and arbitrary regions and time periods. First, a single region is considered, appropriate formulae derived, and the limitations to quantitative approaches discussed. The approach is contrasted to earlier formulations, and shown to avoid weaknesses in a common approximation. Next, the analysis is extended to the multiple region problem. An apparent paradox in aggregating regional estimates is illuminated, and the risk of misleading results is underscored. The methods are applied to the problem of climate change with two case studies, an historical period and a future scenario, used to illustrate the results. The contribution of change in population to change in green house gas emissions is shown to be significant, but not dominant in both industrialized and developing regions."
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"This paper makes use of a recently established comparative series of period and cohort life tables for the Netherlands for the period 1850-1991. Trends in period and cohort life expectancy at birth for males and females are discussed. A simple spline function is used to identify turning points in these trends. Trends in the contribution of specific age groups to the changes in life expectancy and to male excess mortality were studied using the Arriaga method. For this purpose, the results of period and cohort analysis were compared." (SUMMARY IN ITA AND FRE)
Historical demography, surname concordance (isonymy), migration, and genealogy give a consistent description of population structure. The census size has averaged about 1400 over the last five centuries. Conjoined with an effective migration rate of 3-05 per generation as estimated by three different methods, this gives an evolutionary size of 638, random kinship of 0-008 and inbreeding of 0-007 relative to the rest of Britain. The population structure of Barra is similar to other British isolates in the recent past, but an order of magnitude less inbred than slash-and-burn agriculturalists and Pacific Islanders. Some consequences for rare genes and polymorphisms are discussed.
A review of urban change in Hungary in the twentieth century is presented. Both the traditional approach to studying urban change, involving changes in the percentage of those residing in urban areas, and the newly developed approach, focusing on regional aspects of urbanization, are used in the analysis. "In sharp contrast to most European countries Hungary is shown to evidence continued centralization of urban development, but the recent experience of Budapest and other indicators are said to portend future decentralization." (summary in FRE, GER)
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"This work sketches the main stages in the evolution of medical thought and their effect upon the creation of systems intended to classify illness....[It analyzes] the influence of the three stages of the creation of the laboratory medicine in the 19th century....Lastly, it makes a proposal and a plan for a retrospective terminological glossary that should include the nosological lexicon and death causes by means of the integration of the existing empirical material." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE)
A nonparametric statistical methodology is used for the analysis of biochemical frequency data observed on a series of nine Jewish and six non-Jewish populations. Two categories of statistics are used: heterogeneity indices and various distance measures with respect to a standard. The latter are more discriminating in exploiting historical, geographical and culturally relevant information. A number of partial orderings and distance relationships among the populations are determined. Our concern in this study is to analyze similarities and differences among the Jewish populations, in terms of the gene frequency distributions for a number of genetic markers. Typical questions discussed are as follows: These Jewish populations differ in certain morphological and anthropometric traits. Are there corresponding differences in biochemical genetic constitution? How can we assess the extent of heterogeneity between and within groupings? Which class of markers (blood typings or protein loci) discriminates better among the separate populations? The results are quite surprising. For example, we found the Ashkenazi, Sephardi and Iraqi Jewish populations to be consistently close in genetic constitution and distant from all the other populations, namely the Yemenite and Cochin Jews, the Arabs, and the non-Jewish German and Russian populations. We found the Polish Jewish community the most heterogeneous among all Jewish populations. The blood loci discriminate better than the protein loci. A number of possible interpretations and hypotheses for these and other results are offered. The method devised for this analysis should prove useful in studying similarities and differences for other groups of populations for which substantial biochemical polymorphic data are available.
"This work places the production of death causes statistics and its problems in the 19th century, with the appearance of modern statistics....[The author discusses ways] to make the most of the information being analyzed (studies of multiple causes), to improve the quality of medical performance, and to eliminate the variability produced by the codification process." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE)
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The materials of this article were collected in the 1980s at the Archives of Szentes and of Hódmezovásárhely, both affiliated to the Csongrád County Archives. They are documents of 408 trials related with sexuality from the south region of the Great Hungarian Plane and from the period between 1723-1843. More specifically, they are partly from the Csongrád county and also from the estates of the Károlyi family. However, since the witnesses of the trials came from a larger area, the documents give information also from cities like Szeged, Szabadka (now Subotica-Vojvodina), Zombor (now Sombor-Vojvodina), Kecskemét, Félegyháza, Makó and some other places. The shelfmarks of the original manuscripts are as follows: Fond IV.A.1006. protocollum judiciale (Vásárhely), Fond IV.A.53. sedes dominalis Károlyiensis (Szentes) and Fond IV.A.21. sedria (i.e. sedes judicaris) (Szentes). Although these documents may attract the attention of scholars, no one has elaborated them yet, probably owing to their sexual character, no matter that their value could be compared to those documents of the witch-trials published by A. Komaromy, F. Schram and E. Pócs. Any kind of monographical elaboration may only be carried out by using different methods of a number of sciences. The author had to apply the methodology of history, demography, law, sociology, folklore, and in the aspect of medicine the accomplishments of diagnostics, folk-medicine and ethnology as well. These different approaches altogether provided a clue for a comprehensive presentation of the culture-historical characteristics, features of the way of life of Hungarian peasants in this period. ...
"What was the population of able-bodied men and the overall population of China in the eighteenth century? This paper first investigates the statistical methods to determine the population of able-bodied men of China in the eighteenth century. Next, this paper corrects some data for the population of able-bodied men which were obviously incorrect. Finally, the relationship between the number of able-bodied men to the number of total families, and the ratio of the population of able-bodied men to the overall population [are] investigated...."
"The article [provides] examples of error in the censuses and surveys and questions the reliability of age specific sex ratios in the 1990 Census of Turkey...[and derives] sex ratio at birth from census and survey results as well as from hospital records. Finally the 1990 population is reconstructed by surviving birth cohorts [from] 1900 until 1990 using historical trends of birth rates and cohort, age and time specific survival rates using the East Family of Coale-Demeny Model Life Tables." (SUMMARY IN ENG)