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Acute pulmonary embolism: risk stratification.

The death rate from acute pulmonary embolism (PE) exceeds the mortality rate for acute myocardial infarction. Risk stratification helps optimize the selection of those patients who will benefit from more aggressive therapy, such as thrombolysis or embolectomy, in addition to anticoagulation. The classic paradigm was to observe patients deteriorate and to attempt to maintain acceptable hemodynamics by starting vasopressors. If hemodynamics failed to improve or if cardiogenic shock persisted, thrombolysis or surgical embolectomy was considered. Sadly, this "watch and wait" approach often resulted in irreversible cardiogenic shock and multisystem organ failure. The new approach hinges upon rapid and accurate risk stratification. There are four features of this strategy: 1) clinical evaluation, 2) bedside nonimaging tests-electrocardiography and pulse oximetry, 3) imaging tests-echocardiography and chest computed tomography,and 4) cardiac biomarkers-such as the troponin level. When high-risk patients are identified,they can be triaged for urgent or emergent therapy, usually prior to developing overt hypotension and cardiogenic shock.

Acute Disease↗

Risk stratification for long-term outcome after elective coronary angioplasty: a multivariate analysis of 5,000 patients.

OBJECTIVES: We attempted to develop a statistical model to facilitate risk stratification for long-term outcome after elective coronary angioplasty. BACKGROUND: Our understanding of factors related to long-term outcome after coronary angioplasty is limited. Adequate assessment of risk indexes could potentially lead to more appropriate use of percutaneous revascularization. METHODS: We studied 5,000 consecutive patients and assessed 19 clinical and anatomic variables as predictors of long-term event-free survival. Events were defined as death of any cause, myocardial infarction, bypass surgery or repeat percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty. Cox proportional hazards models were used to develop an equation for predicting event-free survival in a subset of 4,000 patients. The equation was validated with the remaining 1,000 patients. Variables that were significantly associated with an adverse outcome in the multivariate model included age > 60 years, extent of disease, Canadian Cardiovascular Society functional class, previous coronary angioplasty, male gender, history of diabetes mellitus, history of hypertension and history of congestive heart failure. RESULTS: The statistical model was used to develop a simplified scoring system, and the patients were assigned to three risk subgroups. Event-free survival curves for the three groups were significantly different (p = 0.0001). High risk patients had worse outcomes for each of the end points compared with low and moderate risk patients (p < 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated that clinical and anatomic variables can be used to risk-stratify long-term outcome after angioplasty, that a simplified scoring system can be used for risk stratification and that high risk patients have a low event-free survival.

Aged↗

N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide on admission for early risk stratification of patients with chest pain and no ST-segment elevation.

OBJECTIVES: The study evaluated the prognostic value of single measurement of N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) obtained on admission in patients with symptoms suggestive of an acute coronary syndrome and no ST-segment elevation. BACKGROUND: Patients with symptoms suggestive of an acute coronary syndrome and no ST-segment elevation constitute a large and heterogeneous population. Early risk stratification has been based on clinical background factors, electrocardiography (ECG) and biochemical markers of myocardial damage. The neurohormonal activation has, so far, received less attention. METHODS: The NT-proBNP was analyzed on admission in 755 patients admitted because of chest pain and no ST-segment elevation. Patients were followed concerning death for 40 months (median). RESULTS: The median NT-proBNP level was 400 (111 to 1646) ng/l. Compared to the lowest quartile, patients in the second, third and fourth quartiles had a relative risk of subsequent death of 4.2 (1.6 to 11.1), 10.7 (4.2 to 26.8) and 26.6 (10.8 to 65.5), respectively. When NT-proBNP was added to a Cox regression model including clinical background factors, ECG and troponin T, the NT-proBNP levels were independently associated with prognosis. CONCLUSIONS: A single measurement of NT-proBNP on admission will substantially improve the early risk stratification of patients with symptoms suggestive of an acute coronary syndrome and no ST-segment elevation. A combination of clinical background factors, ECG, troponin T and NT-proBNP obtained on admission will provide a highly discerning tool for risk stratification and further clinical decisions.

Aged↗

Non-linear heart rate variability and risk stratification in cardiovascular disease.

Traditional time and frequency domain heart rate variability (HRV) have cardiac patients at risk of mortality post-myocardial infarction. More recently, non linear HRV has been applied to risk stratification of cardiac patients. In this review we describe studies of non linear HRV and outcome in cardiac patients. We have included studies that used the three most common non-linear indices: power law slope, the short term fractal scaling exponent and measures based on Poincare plots. We suggest that a combination of traditional and non-linear HRV may be optimal for risk stratification. Considerations in using non linear HRV in a clinical setting are described.

Journal Article↗

Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma: risk stratification and management of relapsed disease.

The clinical factors described by the International Prognostic Index (IPI) provide a model for risk stratification in diffuse large B-cell lymphomas (DLBCLs). However, there is variability in outcome within IPI risk groups, indicating the biological and clinical heterogeneity of these diseases. Studies of gene expression profiling (GEP) in DLBCL are uncovering biological heterogeneity with prognostic significance. Various gene expression signatures with predictive value independent of the IPI are now recognized. Immunophenotypic features of DLBCL have also been shown to have prognostic value. The use of fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) scanning may provide additional predictive information when used at diagnosis or soon after initiation of treatment. Future prognostic models in DLBCL are likely to incorporate functional imaging, immunophenotype and GEPs as well as clinical data in risk stratification and choice of treatment. Treatment of relapsed DLBCL remains a major problem. High-dose therapy (HDT) and stem cell transplantation (SCT) has been shown to produce superior overall survival (OS) compared with conventional dose salvage therapy in patients with relapsed, chemosensitive DLBCL. However, only 20% to 30% of patients are cured by this approach, and the effectiveness of HDT and SCT in patients treated with rituximab-based combinations as first-line therapy is unknown. Although new transplant techniques including non-myeloablative allogeneic SCT are being investigated, their role is unclear. New treatment strategies are needed for these patients. The use of molecular techniques such as GEP is identifying many potential new therapeutic targets in DLBCL including histone deacetylase, HLA-DR, bcl-2, bcl-6, mTOR and TRAIL.

Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols↗

Can risk stratification improve the management of acute upper-gastrointestinal bleeding?

Acute upper-gastrointestinal bleeding is a common indication for emergency admission to hospital. Risk-stratification scores have been devised to identify patients at risk of re-bleeding or death, but these have usually required both clinical and endoscopic assessment. Two recent studies have employed clinical criteria alone to identify low-risk patients that may not require admission or in-patient endoscopy. While each of these studies has individual merit, both are unable to answer the question of whether risk stratification improves health outcomes or resource use in acute gastrointestinal haemorrhage. They will nevertheless help the development of guidelines that enable patients to be managed more efficiently and outcomes to be compared more fairly.

Acute Disease↗

Classification of discordant fetal growth may contribute to risk stratification in monochorionic twin pregnancies.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether classification of discordant growth between fetal twins allows risk stratification in monochorionic twin pregnancies. METHODS: In 12 twin-to-twin transfusion syndrome (TTTS) pregnancies and 12 cases that were suspected of developing the syndrome, fetal growth was determined by serial standard sonography. Fetal growth was expressed as the difference-average-ratio (DAR), defined as the difference in estimated fetal weight between both twins divided by their average weight. In each case, we determined the maximum value of DAR and the rate of change of DAR using a least squares linear fit of the estimated fetal weights. RESULTS: For the TTTS cases the maximum value of DAR was 0.44 +/- 0.21 versus 0.52 +/- 0.13 for the suspected TTTS cases (P = 0.25). The rate of change of DAR was 0.052 +/- 0.034 per week for the TTTS versus 0.0055 +/- 0.0092 for the suspected TTTS cases (P = 0.0004). After laser therapy, DAR decreased in four successful cases, with a rate of change of -0.0146 +/- 0.0093 per week, but increased further in one unsuccessful case, due to patent anastomoses. In the seven TTTS cases treated with amnioreduction, DAR did not decrease; in one of two suspected TTTS cases the DAR decreased slightly. In the nine amnioreduction cases, the average rate of change of DAR was 0.067 +/- 0.083 per week. This was significantly different from the four successful laser cases (P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The rate of change of DAR, but not DAR itself, has prognostic value for the development of suspected TTTS pregnancies, for the onset and severity of TTTS and for the efficacy of therapy. This parameter is derived from routine sonography examination and may contribute to risk stratification in monochorionic twin pregnancies.

Female↗

[Application of risk stratification scores in acute myocardial infarction. Results of RICO (observation of infarction in the Ivory Coast)].

Several risk stratification scores for myocardial infarction have been developed in recent years, based on clinical trials. The object of this study was to assess the application of these scores in an unselected population of myocardial in farction in a French department. One thousand and fifty-four patients with acute myocardial infarction were included in the RICO observatory in the Côte d'Or. Those with ST elevation (SST), N = 746, had 30 day-mortality rates which increased with the TIMI and GUSTO scores (khi2 tendency, p < 0.001). There was a good discriminatory power of both these scores (correlations of 0.71 and 0.69 respectively). Similarly, logistic regression analysis showed a significant relationship between TIMI and GUSTO scores and 30 day mortality (p < 0.001). No correlation was observed between mortality and increased TIMI score in cases of infarction without ST elevation, N = 308, p = 0.344. Moreover, this score had a low discriminatory value in the study population with a correlation of 0.54. On the other hand, regression analysis showed a strong predictive value of the PURSUIT score in infarction without ST elevation for mortality. In addition, there was a correlation between death and the value of this score (p < 0.05). This score also showed a good discriminatory power with a correlation of 0.71. This study shows that, in an unselected population, risk stratification scores may be used as a routine in myocardial infarction, especially in cases with ST elevation.

Aged↗

Use of prognostic factors in risk stratification at diagnosis and time of treatment of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To review risk stratification strategies used in chronic lymphocytic leukemia at diagnosis to predict aggressiveness of disease and, at time of treatment, to predict duration of response. RECENT FINDINGS: Several new prognostic factors can better assist clinicians in predicting the aggressiveness of chronic lymphocytic leukemia at diagnosis and the likelihood of maintaining a prolonged remission with treatment. This article reviews older prognostic factors such as beta2-microglobulin and thymidine kinase activity that have been partially validated by recently completed large studies. New prognostic factors such as interphase cytogenetics, immunoglobulin heavy-chain gene mutational analysis, and relevant secondary surrogate markers of immunoglobulin heavy-chain gene, including methylation of the zeta-associated protein gene, lipoprotein lipase overexpression, telomere length, and telomerase activity are reviewed. Some prognostic factors (interphase cytogenetics) but not others (immunoglobulin heavy-chain gene mutational status, zeta-associated protein expression) predict the duration of response to fludarabine-based combination strategies. SUMMARY: Recent advances in risk stratification provide clinicians with tools to better predict outcome of chronic lymphocytic leukemia at the time of treatment and response to treatment at the time of developing symptomatic disease.

Biomarkers, Tumor↗

Risk stratification of acute pulmonary embolism.

Acute pulmonary embolism (PE) is a potentially life-threatening condition, with an overall 3-month mortality rate of 15% and with right ventricular failure as the most common cause of early death. Risk stratification facilitates identification of high-risk patients and may be helpful in guiding the initial and long-term management. In patients with massive PE and hemodynamic instability, rapid risk assessment is paramount and bedside echocardiography and multislice chest computed tomography (CT) are useful for identifying patients who may benefit from thrombolysis or embolectomy. Cardiac biomarkers, including troponin and the natriuretic peptides, are sensitive markers of right ventricular function. Low levels of troponin, B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP), and NT-terminal proBNP are all highly sensitive assays for identifying patients with an uneventful clinical course. Multislice chest CT is not only useful to diagnose or exclude PE; it also is useful for risk assessment. A right-to-left ventricular dimension ratio > 0.9 on the reconstructed CT four-chamber view identifies patients at increased risk of early death. This article focuses on risk stratification tools, including the clinical examination, electrocardiography, echocardiography, cardiac biomarkers, and chest CT.

Biomarkers↗

Clinical, electrocardiographic, and biochemical data for immediate risk stratification in acute coronary syndromes.

The recent evolution in therapeutic options for acute coronary syndromes (ACS) mandates early risk stratification in order to select the appropriate treatment strategy for individual patients. Simple clinical data derived from the patient's medical history and physical examination, a standard twelve-lead electrocardiogram (ECG), and determinations of biochemical markers of myocardial damage can be obtained in the emergency room and serve as a guide for deciding appropriate medical management and optimal use of available resources. Even the most important classification of the ACS is based upon a simple and dichotomous description of the ECG, where the presence of ST-segment elevation mandates an immediate attempt to restore coronary perfusion (either pharmacologically or mechanically), whereas its absence suggests pharmacological stabilization before further evaluation. Across the whole spectrum of ACS, clinical history data (such as older age, previous coronary events, and diabetes) and clinical variables (such as higher heart rate, lower blood pressure, and higher Killip class) are the most powerful prognostic determinants at multivariate analyses derived from large databases. The ECG adds significant and independent prognostic information using the analysis of qualitative (direction of ST-segment shift, associated T-wave inversion, and presence of conduction disturbances) and quantitative (number of leads involved, amount of ST- segment shifts, duration of QRS) characteristics. Biochemical markers of myocardial damage have also been identified as independent predictors of events. In addition, retrospective analyses of clinical trials have suggested that biochemical markers might serve as a guide to select pharmacological therapy. However, how to best combine electrocardiographic and biochemical data for immediate risk stratification remains to be further elucidated.

Aged↗

Clinical risk stratification correlates with the angiographic extent of coronary artery disease in unstable angina.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine whether clinical risk stratification correlates with the angiographic extent of coronary artery disease (CAD) in patient with unstable angina. BACKGROUND: The Agency for Health Care Policy and Research (AHCPR) guidelines stratify patients with unstable angina according to short-term risk of myocardial infarction or death. Whether these guidelines are useful in predicting the extent of CAD is unknown. METHODS: All residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, undergoing emergency department evaluation from January 1, 1985 through December 31, 1992 for unstable angina without a history of prior coronary artery bypass grafting, and who underwent early angiography (within seven days of presentation) were classified into low, intermediate and high risk subgroups based on AHCPR criteria. RESULTS: Seven hundred ninety-five patients underwent early angiography: 159 high risk, 572 intermediate risk and 64 low risk patients. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that low risk patients had a greater likelihood of normal or mild CAD relative to intermediate risk (odds ratio [OR], 4.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.70-8.06; p < 0.001) and high risk (OR, 11.1; 95% CI, 5.71-22.2; p < 0.001). Significant 1-, 2-, 3-vessel coronary disease or left main coronary disease was more likely in high relative to low risk (OR, 8.09; 95% CI, 4.22-15.5; p < 0.001), intermediate relative to low risk (OR, 4.11; 95% CI, 2.34-7.22; p < 0.001), and high relative to intermediate risk (OR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.31-2.96; p = 0.0012). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with unstable angina undergoing early coronary angiography, risk stratification according to the AHCPR guidelines correlates with the angiographic extent of CAD.

Adult↗

QT dynamics in risk stratification after myocardial infarction.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to compare measures of repolarization dynamics (QT dynamics) with other Holter risk predictors, left ventricular systolic function, and demographic characteristics to establish whether QT dynamics add independent information on risk stratification after myocardial infarction (MI). A novel QT dynamics parameter, the QT/RR variability ratio (VR), was introduced in this study. BACKGROUND: Abnormal repolarization contributes to arrhythmogenesis, and quantification of QT dynamics may have prognostic value after MI. METHODS: A 24-hour Holter recording was performed in 481 consecutive MI patients. Recordings from 311 patients were included in the analysis. QT/RR slope and intercept, mean and standard deviation of all QT, QTc, and RR intervals, and VR (defined as the ratio between the standard deviation of all QT intervals and the standard deviation of all RR interval) were calculated. Ventricular premature beats and ventricular tachycardia were counted. RESULTS: During 3-year follow-up, 70 deaths from all causes occurred. All parameters except mean of all QT intervals and standard deviation of all QTc intervals univariately predicted all-cause mortality. In multivariate Cox analysis, only VR per 0.1 (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.9 [1.5-2.4]), left ventricular ejection fraction per 5% (HR: 1.2 [1.1-1.3]), ventricular premature beats per 10 beats/hour (HR: 1.03 [1.002-1.06]), and age per 10 years (HR: 1.6 [1.3-2.0]) independently predicted all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Measures of QT dynamics univariately predicted total mortality. VR, left ventricular ejection fraction, ventricular premature beats, and age made up the optimal Cox model for risk stratification after MI. VR seems to be a promising risk factor for identifying sudden arrhythmic death.

Aged↗

Circulating IGF2BP3 enables risk stratification and predicts treatment response in Ewing sarcoma.

Ewing sarcoma (EWS), the second most common pediatric bone tumor, presents with a markedly heterogeneous clinical spectrum and optimal risk stratification is therefore crucial for improving treatment outcomes. The RNA-binding protein IGF2BP3 is a critical oncogenic driver of EWS malignancy. This study evaluates the clinical utility of circulating IGF2BP3 as a biomarker to predict treatment response and risk of disease progression in patients with EWS. Plasma samples from 60 patients with EWS diagnosed and treated at the IRCCS Rizzoli Orthopedic Institute (Bologna, Italy) were collected at diagnosis before treatment initiation and/or after induction chemotherapy. For 51 of these patients, blood was collected at diagnosis, prior to any treatments. For 25 patients, blood samples were available at diagnosis and before surgical intervention, allowing longitudinal analysis in the same patient. For 9 patients, blood was collected only after preoperative chemotherapy, before surgical intervention. Circulating IGF2BP3 levels were quantified using a highly specific and sensitive ELISA assay. Plasma samples from healthy donors served as controls. IGF2BP3 plasma levels were correlated with IGF2BP3 tumor tissue expression, established clinical risk factors, and cumulative incidence of relapse using univariable and multivariable analyses. Plasma IGF2BP3 levels were significantly elevated in patients with EWS compared with healthy controls, with a subset of patients (22/51, 43.2%) exhibiting clinically relevant concentrations. Circulating IGF2BP3 levels reflected tumor expression of the molecule and provided additional prognostic information beyond standard clinicopathologic features. The prognostic impact of circulating IGF2BP3 was primarily observed in patients with localized disease, in whom elevated levels were identified as a significant adverse prognostic factor for disease-specific survival (hazard ratio, 10.63; 95% CI, 1.27-88.62; P = 0.029). Longitudinal monitoring demonstrated that persistence of IGF2BP3 in plasma after induction chemotherapy was a strong predictor of poor clinical outcomes. Circulating IGF2BP3 represents a valuable biomarker for early risk stratification in EWS, particularly in patients with localized disease. Although this is single-marker assay, the expression of the molecule may impact on the fate of many mRNAs. We present an accurate, simple, cost-effective and easy clinical applicable tool to support risk-adapted therapeutic interventions. The limited number of employed patients warrants the need of larger cohorts for validation.

Humans↗

Perioperative myocardial infarction after coronary artery bypass surgery. Clinical significance and approach to risk stratification.

The clinical significance of perioperative myocardial infarction (MI) after coronary artery bypass surgery is not known. Therefore, strategies for the risk stratification of these patients do not exist. This study was undertaken to define the effect of perioperative MI on prognosis after discharge from the hospital and to develop an approach to the risk stratification of these patients. Fifty-nine patients with and 115 patients without perioperative MI were observed for 30 months for the development of cardiac events (death, nonfatal MI, and admission to hospital for unstable angina or congestive heart failure). Patients with perioperative MI were significantly more likely than patients without to have a cardiac event (31% versus 12%, p less than 0.01) and multiple events (19% versus 1%, p less than 0.001). Cox regression analysis identified two independent predictors of cardiac events other than perioperative MI (relative risk, 2.7): inadequate revascularization (relative risk, 3.5) and depressed (less than 40%) postoperative ejection fraction (EF) (relative risk, 2.1). Event-free survival rate of patients with perioperative MI varied markedly depending on the number of other negative prognostic variables present. Patients with perioperative MI who were adequately revascularized and had a postoperative EF greater than 40% had an event-free survival rate similar to patients without a perioperative MI (92% versus 87%, p = NS). Patients with perioperative MI who were inadequately revascularized and had depressed postoperative EF had an event-free survival rate of 13% (p less than 0.001 versus all other subsets). Event-free survival rate was intermediate (68%) in patients with perioperative MI and with only one of the other two variables (p less than 0.001 versus other subsets). In conclusion, perioperative MI adversely affects prognosis. Patients can be stratified into low, high, and intermediate risk subsets based on a simple assessment of the adequacy of revascularization and a determination of residual left ventricular function.

Coronary Artery Bypass↗

A three-metabolite microbiota-associated signature for early risk stratification of gestational diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes and long-term metabolic and cardiovascular risk. However, oral glucose tolerance testing at 24-28 gestational weeks limits early risk stratification. Gut microbiota-associated metabolites may reflect early metabolic abnormalities, including those relevant to cardiometabolic health, but robust early-pregnancy biomarkers remain limited. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter nested case-control and prospective study involving 2,693 pregnant women. Untargeted metabolomics and metagenomics were integrated to identify GDM-associated metabolites and gut microbial alterations. Three consistently dysregulated metabolites, 3-hydroxydecanoic acid, &#x3b3;-Glu-Leu, and propionic acid, were quantified by targeted LC-MS/MS. Candidate algorithms were compared using repeated 10-fold cross-validation, and a final generalized linear model was externally and prospectively validated. RESULTS: Women who later developed GDM showed an adverse early-pregnancy metabolic profile, including higher BMI, triglycerides, and platelet count. Untargeted metabolomics identified 14 persistently altered metabolites enriched in energy, oxidative stress, and amino acid metabolism pathways. Metagenomics revealed taxonomic restructuring and coordinated microbiota-metabolite associations. The three-metabolite model achieved AUCs of 0.838 (95% CI, 0.791-0.885) in training, 0.840 (95% CI, 0.769-0.911) in internal validation, 0.955 (95% CI, 0.925-0.985) and 0.917 (95% CI, 0.875-0.958) in two external cohorts, and 0.969 (95% CI, 0.937-1.000) in the prospective cohort. CONCLUSION: Early microbiota-associated metabolic dysregulation is detectable before routine GDM diagnosis. This compact three-metabolite panel may support early GDM risk stratification and provides metabolic evidence relevant to broader cardiometabolic risk assessment in pregnancy.

Humans↗

Risk stratification in non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndromes with special focus on recent guidelines.

Patients with unstable angina or non-ST segment elevation (non-Q-wave) myocardial infarction are a heterogeneous group with respect to their risk of developing clinically significant adverse events such as subsequent myocardial infarction and death. Recent guidelines promote risk stratification of these patients, targeting high-risk patients for maximal antithrombotic and antiischemic therapy and low-risk patients for early discharge. We reviewed current and future modalities for risk stratification of patients and the predictive value of these methods in context with available pharmacologic agents. Unfortunately, most of the data identifying a particular pharmacologic regimen as beneficial in high-risk patients are retrospectively derived from large trials. Until prospective studies that use markers to guide therapy are available, clinicians should be familiar with the use of these risk markers and their application to the role of a given management strategy, including pharmacologic therapy.

Acute Disease↗

Stress echocardiography versus myocardial SPECT for risk stratification of patients with coronary artery disease.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Diagnostic testing using noninvasive imaging has become an integral part of risk stratification in patients with coronary artery disease. It is important to understand the integral strengths and weaknesses between the different modalities of stress testing and to apply accurately the type of test the clinical scenario demands. RECENT FINDINGS: There have been tremendous advances made in the field of cardiac imaging. Both myocardial perfusion imaging and stress echocardiographic techniques continue to evolve and play an important role in the assessment of patients with coronary artery disease. SUMMARY: In this review the authors discuss the relative merits of both stress echocardiography and myocardial single photon emission computed tomographic imaging for diagnosis and risk stratification of patients with coronary artery disease.

Cardiomyopathies↗