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PubMed1995

Estimates of early twentieth-century U.S. homicide rates: an econometric forecasting approach.

Bureau of the Census death registration records, as reported in Mortality Statistics, are a primary source for early twentieth-century U.S. homicide statistics. Those data appear to show a massive rise in homicide during the first decade of the century, with a continuing increase through 1933. This increase is quite at variance with the trend away from violence in other industrialized societies. During the first one-third of the century, however, death registration was incomplete; it occurred only in an expanding "registration area" that was composed, in the earlier years, primarily of states with typically low rates of homicide. Further, in the first decade of the century homicides within the registration area often were reported as accidental deaths. As a result, apparent increases in rates of homicide in the United States between 1900 and 1933 may be illusory. I use a two-step process to address these problems. Drawing on internal evidence and commentaries in early volumes of Mortality Statistics, I use GLS regression to estimate the prevalence of undercounts. Then I create a series of GLS models that use registration area data to estimate early twentieth-century national rates. These estimates call into question the extent of homicide change early in the century.

Bias↗
PubMed1993

[The forecasting of the time of calving using a rapid progesterone test].

The rectal temperature and any alterations in eight different external signs of parturition were investigated twice daily in 22 "Deutsche Schwarzbunte" cows during the last 10 days of gestation. There was great variation in the externally detectable signs of parturition during the preparatory stages and short before labour. During the same time period, plasma progesterone and total oestrogens were determined using radioimmunology. From 60 hours to 12 hours prior to calving the progesterone levels fell rapidly to 0.77 +/- 0.22 ng/ml. Additionally, the plasma progesterone was determined semi-quantitatively in 31 cows using a rapid progesterone assay in order to predict the commencement of parturition within 36 hours. This allowed a more objective and reliable assessment of calving time than the evaluation of external signs of labour.

Animals↗
PubMed1977

[Forecasting of the effects of lumbar sympathectomy by the radiothermometry with pentothal (author's transl)].

This test has been previously described and is used routinely by the authors since 1960. The method is based on the alternate arterial blood distribution between skin and muscle of a limb, depending on modifications in the vasomotor tone. Skin temperature, arteriography and progression speed of the contrast medium are measured simultaneously. The test shows the morphology of the arterial lesion. It measures vasomotor reserve by these parameters, especially the skin temperature, before and after administration of pentothal. Results are rated as good, average and poor. The authors have compared this test, performed before surgery, to the results of lumbar sympathectomy and found an excellent correlation. Late result of lumbar sympathectomy can thus be foreseen by means of this test provided no new organic lesion interferes with the hemodynamics of the limb.

Angiography↗
PubMed1978

Stormy forecast.

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Fee Schedules↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Trends in registered psychiatric morbidity and forecasting psychotropic drug needs in Bulgarian hospitals.

Registered psychiatric morbidity in Bulgaria as a whole and particularly in Plovdiv, the second largest region of the country, was assessed. Three aspects of psychotropic drug usage were analysed, namely, changes in registered psychotropic drugs, the prescribed daily dose (PDD) values for 2 years, and the preferred therapeutic schemes, and drug usage and needs in a psychiatric hospital with 365 beds. This was done by time series analysis for evaluation of psychiatric morbidity and drug consumption data, calculation of PDD for psychotropic medicines, and, based on a modification of the World Health Organization's morbidity method, assessment and prediction of drug use and needs in Plovdiv hospital. The results indicated that the registered morbidity had increased by 4% over the period 1989-93 to 2,427 psychiatric patients per 100,000 people. The increased consumption of especially benzodiazepines and sedative medicines was analyzed. Diazepam was prescribed the most often (91.1%), followed by levomepromazine (86.4%), haloperidol (82.7%), etc. Future drug consumption in Plovdiv hospital is expected to decrease because therapeutic practice in hospitals has been revised and improved on the basis of the World Health Organization's recommendations.

Bulgaria↗
PubMed1998

Forecasted state-specific estimates of self-reported asthma prevalence--United States, 1998.

Asthma is a chronic inflammatory disorder of the lungs characterized by episodic and reversible symptoms of airflow obstruction. During 1993-1994, an estimated 13.7 million persons in the United States reported having asthma, and from 1980 to 1994 the prevalence of self-reported asthma in the United States increased 75%. Despite this increase, surveillance data are limited for asthma at the state and local levels. To estimate the 1998 prevalence rate of asthma for each state, CDC analyzed national self-reported asthma prevalence data from 1995. This report summarizes the results of the analyses, which project that approximately 17 million persons in the United States have asthma.

Asthma↗