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PubMed1994

The demographic transition in southern Africa: reviewing the evidence from Botswana and Zimbabwe.

Part, but not all, of the observed decline in the number of children ever born reported in the 1984 CPS and the 1988 DHS in Botswana and Zimbabwe can be attributed to differences in sample composition: women in the 1988 survey appear to be better educated than women of the same cohort in the 1984 survey. Blanc and Rutstein argue that differences in education levels in the pairs of surveys are not significant. However, weighted Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics, a comparison of average years of schooling, and the proportions of women who complete primary school or attend secondary school all indicate that the differences are, in fact, significant. This is true in both Botswana and Zimbabwe. Blanc and Rutstein also claim that these differences do not account for any of the observed decline in fertility between the surveys of women age 15 to 49. Their methodology follows cohorts of women rather than age-groups and thus cannot possibly address this issue. Furthermore, to interpret their results, response error and respondent education must be uncorrelated: this is a key assumption which is violated by the data. We stand by our conclusions and argue for caution when aggregate statistics from the CPS and the DHS are used to make projections about the course of fertility and population growth in Botswana and Zimbabwe.

Adolescent↗
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[Intra-urban mortality differentials in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, 1994: revisiting the debate on demographic and epidemiological transitions].

Demographic and epidemiological transition models have seldom been debated within the Brazilian scientific community. This study aims to critically review the studies based on such transition models, analyzing their contributions and limitations for health research in Brazilian cities. Data from the city of Belo Horizonte were used to illustrate the theoretical issues raised in this paper. A total of 10,558 death certificates from 1994 were classified according to underlying cause of death and place of residence (75 geographical areas). Areas were classified according to the proportion of heads of households with low formal education. Population age structures and age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates in the areas were compared. Mortality rates indicate that Belo Horizonte is experiencing a multiple and unequal epidemiological transition process. In the poorer areas, infectious diseases have been replaced by homicides as cause of death in adulthood. The findings suggest that large Brazilian cities have mortality patterns that vary according to social and economic differentials.

Adolescent↗