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Results for “Demographic modelling”

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PubMed2003

Modelling the impact of colonisation on genetic diversity and differentiation of forest trees: interaction of life cycle, pollen flow and seed long-distance dispersal.

It was shown previously that the long lifespan and juvenile phase of trees strongly attenuate founder effects during colonisation in a diffusive dispersal model. However, this model yielded too slow a colonisation rate in comparison with palynological data for temperate forest trees. Since rare long-distance dispersal events have been shown to increase considerably colonisation rates in population dynamics models, we investigate here the impact of long-distance dispersal on within-population diversity (H(S)) and among-population differentiation (F(ST)) during the colonisation process. We use a stochastic approach and compare several dispersal strategies, ranging from very rare dispersal events of large amplitude to more frequent events of smaller amplitude. Using a simulation approach, which takes into account tree life-history traits, we show that long-distance dispersal events increase colonisation speed, and yield much larger founder effects in comparison with the diffusive model. The two models that include intermediate- and long-distance dispersal events show stronger deviations from experimental F(ST) values during and at the end of the colonisation process than the model with more frequent events of smaller dispersal variance. Furthermore, the introduction of a high level of pollen flow has a much more limited impact on models that include long-distance dispersal than on a diffusive dispersal model. The relatively high H(S) values that were obtained in all models are discussed according to the assumed mutation rate and effective population size. This study is an example of how observed genetic data can provide additional evidence on the best demographic model for a given species or group of species.

Computer Simulation↗

PubMed1995

Using INS border apprehension data to measure the flow of undocumented migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico frontier.

"This article examines how data on INS [Immigration and Naturalization Service] border apprehensions are related to the flow of undocumented migrants crossing the southern U.S. border. Its centerpiece is a demographic model of the process of unauthorized migration across the Mexico-U.S. frontier. This model is both a conceptual framework that allows us to see theoretical linkages between apprehensions and illegal migrant flows, and a methodological device that yields estimates of the gross number of undocumented migrants. One implication of the model is that, for the first time, the relation between apprehensions and illegal flows can be examined empirically. We show that the ratio in each period between apprehensions and the undocumented flow is simply the odds of being located and arrested on any given attempt to enter the United States clandestinely."

Americas↗

PubMed2006

Genetic signature of anthropogenic population collapse in orang-utans.

Great ape populations are undergoing a dramatic decline, which is predicted to result in their extinction in the wild from entire regions in the near future. Recent findings have particularly focused on African apes, and have implicated multiple factors contributing to this decline, such as deforestation, hunting, and disease. Less well-publicised, but equally dramatic, has been the decline in orang-utans, whose distribution is limited to parts of Sumatra and Borneo. Using the largest-ever genetic sample from wild orang-utan populations, we show strong evidence for a recent demographic collapse in North Eastern Borneo and demonstrate that this signature is independent of the mutation and demographic models used. This is the first demonstration that genetic data can detect and quantify the effect of recent, human-induced deforestation and habitat fragmentation on an endangered species. Because current demographic collapses are usually confounded by ancient events, this suggests a much more dramatic decline than demographic data alone and emphasises the need for major conservation efforts.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

Extinction in relation to demographic and environmental stochasticity in age-structured models.

The demographic variance of an age-structured population is defined. This parameter is further split into components generated by demographic stochasticity in each vital rate. The applicability of these parameters are investigated by checking how an age-structured population process can be approximated by a diffusion with only three parameters. These are the deterministic growth rate computed from the expected projection matrix and the environmental and demographic variances. We also consider age-structured populations where the fecundity at any stage is either zero or one, and there is neither environmental stochasticity nor dependence between individual fecundity and survival. In this case the demographic variance is uniquely determined by the vital rates defining the projection matrix. The demographic variance for a long-lived bird species, the wandering albatross in the southwestern part of the Indian Ocean, is estimated. We also compute estimates of the age-specific contributions to the total demographic variance from survival, fecundity and the covariance between survival and fecundity.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2006

Predictors of use and consumption of public drinking water among pregnant women.

Disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water may be associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. However, the results from previous epidemiological studies are not consistent, perhaps in part due to individual variation in water use and consumption. This study was performed to evaluate and describe demographic and behavioral characteristics as predictors of ingested water, showering, bathing, and swimming among pregnant women. Water use and consumption data were collected through telephone interviews with 2297 pregnant women from three geographical sites in the southern United States. The data were analyzed according to demographic, health, and behavioral variables expected to be predictors of water use and thus potential confounding factors relating water use to pregnancy outcome. The candidate predictors were evaluated using backward elimination in regression models. Demographic variables tended to be more strongly predictive of the use and consumption of water than health and behavior-related factors. Non-Hispanic white women drank 0.4 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.2; 0.7) liters more cold tap water per day than Hispanic women and 0.3 (95% CI 0.1; 0.4) liters more than non-Hispanic black women. Non-Hispanic white women also reported drinking a higher proportion of filtered tap water, whereas Hispanic women replaced more of their tap water with bottled water. Lower socioeconomic groups reported spending a longer time showering and bathing, but were less likely to use swimming pools. The results of this study should help researchers to anticipate and better control for confounding and misclassification in studies of exposure to DBPs and pregnancy outcomes.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2025

SimHumanity: Using SLiM 5.0 to run whole-genome simulations of human evolution.

The reconstruction of human evolutionary history has undergone repeated advances, each made possible by methodological innovations. In recent decades, genetic and genomic data played a central role in the reconstruction of major evolutionary events such as the out-of-Africa migration, and genetic simulations of human evolutionary history have come to play a major role in testing more specific hypotheses including proposed patterns of migration and admixture with archaic hominins. Increasing computational power has allowed human evolutionary history to be modeled at ever-larger scales, but simulations that encompass the complete human genome, including sex chromosomes and mitochondrial DNA, have been difficult due to the lack of support for whole-genome models in commonly used evolutionary simulation frameworks. With the recent introduction of SLiM 5 such simulations are now straightforward to construct, allowing the easy simulation of humans at whole-genome scale under different demographic models and evolutionary dynamics. We here present three versions of a reusable, customizable, open-source SLiM 5 model for simulating the molecular evolution of the full human genome. We also show some simple analyses of results from the model, to illustrate its utility. We hope this model, which we have nicknamed "SimHumanity" in jest, will facilitate further progress in the field of human evolutionary simulations.

SLiM↗

PubMed1999

Detecting population expansion and decline using microsatellites.

This article considers a demographic model where a population varies in size either linearly or exponentially. The genealogical history of microsatellite data sampled from this population can be described using coalescent theory. A method is presented whereby the posterior probability distribution of the genealogical and demographic parameters can be estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The likelihood surface for the demographic parameters is complicated and its general features are described. The method is then applied to published microsatellite data from two populations. Data from the northern hairy-nosed wombat show strong evidence of decline. Data from European humans show weak evidence of expansion.

Demography↗

PubMed2005

Baseline factors that influence ASAS 20 response in patients with ankylosing spondylitis treated with etanercept.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the baseline demographic and disease characteristics that might influence improvement as measured by the Assessment in Ankylosing Spondylitis Response Criteria (ASAS 20) in patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS). METHODS: A multicenter Phase 3 study was performed to compare the safety and efficacy of 24 weeks of etanercept 25 mg subcutaneous injection twice weekly (n = 138) and placebo (n = 139) in patients with AS. The ASAS 20 was measured at multiple time points. Using a significance level of 0.05, a repeated measures logistic regression model was used to determine which baseline factors influenced response in the etanercept-treated patients during the 24-week double blind portion of the trial. The following baseline factors were used in the model: demographic and disease severity variables, concomitant medications, extra-articular manifestations, and HLA-B27 status. The predictive capability of the model was then tested on the patients receiving placebo after they had received open-label etanercept treatment. RESULTS: Baseline factors that were significant predictors of an ASAS 20 response in etanercept-treated patients were C-reactive protein (CRP), back pain score, and Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index (BASFI) score. Although clinical response to etanercept was seen at all levels of baseline disease activity, responses were consistently more likely with higher CRP levels or back pain scores and less likely with increased BASFI scores at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Higher CRP values and back pain scores and lower BASFI scores at baseline were significant predictors of a higher ASAS 20 response in patients with AS receiving etanercept but predictive value was of insufficient magnitude to determine treatment in individual patients.

Adult↗

PubMed2003

Quantifying copper and cadmium impacts on intrinsic rate of population increase in the terrestrial oligochaete Lumbricus rubellus.

Demographic methods can translate toxicant effects on individuals into consequences for populations. To date few such studies have been conducted with longer-lived invertebrates. This is because full life-cycle experiments are difficult with such species. Here we report the effects of copper and cadmium on the key demographic parameter intrinsic rate of population increase (r) in a long-lived invertebrate (an earthworm). The approach used to derive r was based on robust measurement of effects on life-cycle traits in three specifically designed toxicity tests and integration of this data within a demographic model. The three laboratory tests used to generate values for specific life-cycle parameters under copper and cadmium exposure were suited to the task. Significant effects on a range of separate adult and juvenile life-cycle parameters were seen. Integration of parameter values within the demographic equation indicated that for copper, r was reduced only at a concentration that also caused adult mortality. For cadmium, a more graded exposure-dependent effect on fitness was seen, with r reduced at sublethal concentrations. The concentration response patterns for r found for the two metals suggest significantly different consequences for earthworm populations exposed to sublethal levels of copper and cadmium.

Animals↗

PubMed1987

Measuring the accuracy of population forecasts.

The accuracy of population projections is discussed, with specific reference to population forecasts for development planning purposes. The author notes that errors in making population forecasts depend on the parameter values used in the calculations, and that such errors can be avoided if the demographic models used are seen not as stochastic but as models with random parameters. "For such models the present article derives estimations of the covariance matrices of forecasts of the social and age composition of the population."

Age Distribution↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Taking health status into account when setting capitation rates: a comparison of risk-adjustment methods.

OBJECTIVE: To compare performance of different health status measures for risk-adjusting capitation rates. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. Health status measures derived from 1 year were used to predict resources for that year and the next. SETTING: Group-network health maintenance organization in Minnesota. PARTICIPANTS: Sample of 18- to 64-year-old (n=3825) and elderly (aged > or = 65 years; n=1955) members enrolled in a network-model health maintenance organization in Minnesota. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Total expenditures in the year concurrent with the health status survey (July 1991 through June 1992) and total expenditures in the year following the survey (July 1992 through June 1993). RESULTS: Capitation adjustment based on demographic measures performed least well. Both self-reported health status measures and diagnoses predicted future expenditures twice as well as demographics. When predicting costs for groups of patients rather than individuals, the demographic model worked well for average groups but tended to overpredict healthier groups and underpredict sicker groups. Ambulatory Care Groups based on diagnoses performed better than self-reported health status both in the retrospective models and across healthier and sicker groups. CONCLUSIONS: Without risk adjustment, capitation rates are likely to overpay or underpay physicians for certain patient groups. It is possible to improve prediction using health status measures for risk adjustment. When selection bias is suspected and administrative data are available, we recommend a risk-adjustment method based on diagnostic information. If diagnostic data are not available, we recommend a system based on simple self-reported measures, such as chronic conditions, rather than complex functional status measures.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

Modeling biodiversity dynamics in countryside landscapes.

The future of biodiversity hinges to a great extent on the conservation value of countryside, the growing fraction of Earth's surface heavily influenced by human activities. How many species, and which species, can persist in such landscapes (and analogous seascapes) are open questions. Here we explore two complementary theoretical frameworks to address these questions: species-area relationships and demographic models. We use the terrestrial mammal fauna of Central America to illustrate the application of both frameworks. We begin by proposing a multi-habitat species-area relationship, the countryside species-area relationship, to forecast species extinction rates. To apply it, we classify the mammal fauna by affinity to native and human-dominated habitats. We show how considering the conservation value of countryside habitats changes estimates derived from the classic species-area approach We also examine how the z value of the species-area relationship affects extinction estimates. Next, we present a framework for assessing the relative vulnerability of species to extinction in the countryside, based on the Skellam model of population dynamics. This model predicts the minimum area of contiguous native habitat required for persistence of a species, which we use as an indicator of vulnerability to habitat change. To apply the model, we use our habitat affinity classification of mammals and we estimate life-history parameters by species and habitat type. The resulting ranking of vulnerabilities is significantly correlated with the World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List assessment.

Animals↗

PubMed2003

Insulin and longevity: antidiabetic biguanides as geroprotectors.

The results of previous experimental studies of effects of antidiabetic biguanides (phenformin and buformin) on life span and spontaneous tumor incidence in mice and rats were recalculated and reanalyzed using standard demographic models of mortality. The chronic treatment of female C3H/Sn mice with phenformin prolonged the mean life span by 21.1% (P < 0.05), the mean life span of the last 10% survivors by 28.4% and the maximum life span by 5.5 months (by 26%) in comparison with the control. The demographic aging rate represented by the estimate of respective Gompertz's parameter decreased by 31.2% and MRDT increased 1.45-fold. The treatment significantly inhibited (4.0-fold, P < 0.01) the incidence of mammary adenocarcinomas in mice. Administration of phenformin to female LIO rats failed to influence the mean life span. At the same time, the mean life span of the last 10% survivors increased by 10.1% (P < 0.05), and maximum life span increased by 3 months (+9.8%). Phenformin attenuated the development of spontaneous tumors in comparison to the control. The treatment of female rats with another antidiabetic biguanide, buformin, slightly increased their mean life span (by 7.3%; P > 0.05). The mean life span of the last 10% survivors increased by 12% (P < 0.05) and the maximum life span increased by 2 months (+5.5%) as compared with controls. The population aging rate decreased by 18.1% (P < 0.05) and MRDT increased 1.22-fold under the influence of buformin (P < 0.05). The total tumor incidence decreased by 49.5% in buformin-treated rats. Both antidiabetic biguanides slightly decreased the body weight, slowed down the age-related decline of the reproductive function in female rats. The results of our experiments provide evidence that antidiabetic biguanides are promising geroprotectors as well as drugs which can be used in the prevention of cancer.

Aging↗

PubMed2005

A comparison of persistence-time estimation for discrete and continuous stochastic population models that include demographic and environmental variability.

A discrete-time Markov chain model, a continuous-time Markov chain model, and a stochastic differential equation model are compared for a population experiencing demographic and environmental variability. It is assumed that the environment produces random changes in the per capita birth and death rates, which are independent from the inherent random (demographic) variations in the number of births and deaths for any time interval. An existence and uniqueness result is proved for the stochastic differential equation system. Similarities between the models are demonstrated analytically and computational results are provided to show that estimated persistence times for the three stochastic models are generally in good agreement when the models satisfy certain consistency conditions.

Animals↗

PubMed1998

The estimation of population microdata by using data from small area statistics and samples of anonymised records.

"Traditionally, estimates of the number of people in small areas (the smallest geographical units for which data are available) have been disaggregated only by age and sex. More recently, much research effort has been directed towards developing some form of enhanced small-area population estimation, in which the population in a small area is disaggregated not only by age and sex, but also by a wide range of additional economic and social characteristics. Solutions to this problem currently include account-based demographic models, often used by local authorities."

Age Factors↗

PubMed1999

Pharmacy costs groups: a risk-adjuster for capitation payments based on the use of prescribed drugs.

BACKGROUND: Adequate risk-adjustment is critical to the success of market-oriented health care reforms in many countries. A common element of these reforms is that consumers may choose among competing health insurers, which are largely financed through premium-replacing capitation payments mostly based on demographic variables. These very crude health indicators do not reflect expected costs accurately. OBJECTIVE: This study examines whether the demographic capitation model can be improved by incorporating information on the presence of chronic conditions deduced from the use of prescribed drugs. The revised Chronic Disease Score was used to incorporate this information in the model. METHODS: A panel data set comprising annual costs and information on prescribed drugs for 3 successive years from Dutch sickness fund members of all ages, is used for the empirical analyses (N = 55,907). The predictive performance of the demographic model is compared with that of a chronic conditions and a Pharmacy Costs Groups (PCG) model, which is a demographic model extended with information on clustered chronic conditions. RESULTS: The predictive accuracy of the demographic model substantially improved when the model was extended with dummy variables for chronic conditions. The 23 chronic conditions could be clustered into six PCGs without affecting the predictive accuracy. Based on these PCGs 17% of the members were bad risks with a mean predictable loss that exceeds the overall average expenditures. CONCLUSIONS: The use of information on chronic conditions derived from claims for prescribed drugs is a promising option for improving the system of risk-adjusted capitation payments.

Capitation Fee↗

PubMed1996

Model of the impact of HIV infection on the size of future hemophilia and carrier birth cohorts.

The introduction of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in almost half of the U.S. hemophilia population during the late 1970s and early to mid-1980s has resulted in significant mortality and morbidity. The predict the quantitative impact of HIV infection through HIV-contaminated clotting factor on the size of future hemophilia and hemophilia carrier populations in the United States, a demographic model was developed for hemophilia and hemophilia carrier birth cohorts for the 200 years between 1980 and 2180. Mortality and fertility rates were estimated from databases of the Hemophilia Malignancy Study (HMS), NHLBI Blood Resources Studies, and Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Minimal Data Set. According to the model, the HIV epidemic will produce small reductions in the expected numbers of hemophilic (1.79%) and carrier (2.63%) births in the next 2 centuries. More substantial reductions in the numbers of hemophilic and carrier births required extreme assumptions regarding the fertility of hemophilic men, the extent of HIV infection among hemophilic men, and the proportion of hemophilic births that arise from spontaneous mutation.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2002

The evolution of self-fertilization in density-regulated populations.

The evolution of selfing in hermaphrodites has been studied to reveal the demographic conditions that lead to intermediate selfing rates. Using a demographic model based on Ricker-type density regulation, we assume first that, independent of population density, inbred individuals survive less well than outbred individuals and second, that inbred and outbred individuals differ in their competitive abilities in density-regulated populations. The evolution of selfing, driven by inbreeding depression and the cost of outcrossing, is then analysed for three fundamentally different demographic scenarios: stable population densities, deterministically varying population densities (resulting from cyclical or chaotic population dynamics) and stochastic fluctuations of carrying capacities (resulting from environmental noise). We show that even under stable demographic conditions evolutionary outcomes are not confined to either complete selfing or full outcrossing. Instead, intermediate selfing rates arise under a wide range of conditions, depending on the nature of competitive interactions between inbred and outbred individuals. We also explore the evolution of selfing under deterministic and stochastic density fluctuations to demonstrate that such environmental conditions can evolutionarily stabilize intermediate selfing rates. This is the first study, to our knowledge, to consider in detail the effect of density regulation on the evolution of selfing rates.

Adaptation, Physiological↗