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At least 163 records · Page 9Linked to original sources
PubMed1993

Summary evaluations of risk factors related to infant mortality.

The authors discuss risk factors related to infant mortality. "The size and magnitude of these risk factors vary across different countries and regions. In order to more accurately describe the relationship between risk factors and infant mortality, risk factors should be quantified, making it possible to estimate the degree of risk associated with infant deaths. This article introduces some risk factors and their evaluation method."

Biology↗
PubMed2006

An examination of ecological risk assessment and management practices.

Ecological risk assessment has grown and evolved since the 1980s, as have new challenges (e.g. global climate change, loss of habitat and biodiversity and the effects of multiple anthropogenic chemicals on ecological systems) that need to be factored into the risk assessment processes. There is also an on-going shift from evaluating adverse health impacts on particular, often small scale, environments to undertaking more complex ecological assessments of whole populations and communities across ecologically meaningful landscapes. These trends are generating an increased demand for much more complex ecological assessments, making it increasingly clear that to achieve its potential as a management tool, methods must be developed to apply ecological risk assessment to larger and more complex scales. This paper reviews the development of the ecological risk assessment paradigm in the United States, identifies ways it is being applied and adapted in other countries, explores future research needs and practice improvements, and examines current issues that need to be considered in taking forward the scientific development of ecological risk assessment as a useful environmental management tool.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Extinction risk, coloured noise and the scaling of variance.

The impact of temporally correlated fluctuating environments (coloured noise) on the extinction risk of populations has become a main focus in theoretical population ecology. In this study we particularly focus on the extinction risk in strongly correlated environments. Here, we found that, in contrast to moderate auto-correlation, the extinction risk was highly dependent on the process of noise generation, in particular on the method of variance scaling. Such scaling is commonly applied to avoid variance-driven biases when comparing the extinction risk under white and coloured noise. We show that for strong auto-correlation often-used scaling techniques lead to a high variability in the variances of the resulting time series and thus to deviations in the subsequent extinction risk. Therefore, we present an alternative scaling method that always delivers the target variance, even in the case of strong auto-correlation. In contrast to earlier techniques, our very intuitive method is not bound to auto-regressive processes but can be applied to all types of coloured noises. We strongly recommend our method to generate time series when the target of interest is the effect of noise colour on extinction risk not obscured by any variance effects.

Animals↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[Risk assessment of bluetongue disease incursion into Germany using geographic information system (GIS)].

Using a geographic information system (GIS), by analysis of the relationship between the spatial distribution of cattle density and the risk factors temperature, altitude and rainfall, we defined geographical habitats enabling optimal development and competence of Culicoides spp. to transmit Bluetongue-Virus (BTV): Risk zones (low, high, highest risk) were identified mainly in Baden-Württemberg, Hessen and Rheinland-Pfalz if persistently infected ruminants are imported into these zones in summer (June to August mainly), based on the current climatic conditions, BTD outbreaks are considered a real possibility. Overwintering of the virus seems unlikely. However, global warming will lead to a steady increase of the size of the risk zones. In addition, the possibility of primary outbreaks increases. The reason for this is not only the expected northern shift of Culicoides imicola, but in addition an increasing vector competence of domestic Culicoides species. We therefore recommend the storage of vaccines as well as conducting ecological studies analysing the presence of Culicoides vectors. Using the data from these studies, it will be possible to produce updated quantitative risk assessment via GIS.

Animals↗
PubMed1999

Impact of changing societal trends on the spread of infections in American and Canadian homes.

Infectious diseases continue to exert a heavy toll on human health even in industrialized countries. Recent data from the World Health Organization suggests that infectious diseases are the leading cause of death in the world. Many changing trends in our society have a known or potential impact on infectious disease spread and may have an impact on the normal routine of home hygiene. Important amongst these societal trends are increasing population and life expectancy, changes in urbanization, grouping of susceptibles, increased ambulatory and home care, increased immunosuppression, increased and faster travel, changes in technology, increasing antibiotic resistance as a result of misuse of antibiotics, changes in food and water consumption, and changes in personal cleaning, washing, and laundry practices. This review will highlight these factors and their impact on home hygiene and steps that may be needed to reduce the risk from infections.

Canada↗
PubMed2006

Assessing risks of releasing exotic biological control agents of arthropod pests.

More than 5000 introductions of about 2000 species of exotic arthropod agents for control of arthropod pests in 196 countries or islands during the past 120 years rarely have resulted in negative environmental effects. Yet, risks of environmental effects caused by releases of exotics are of growing concern. Twenty countries have implemented regulations for release of biological control agents. Soon, the International Standard for Phytosanitary Measures (ISPM3) will become the standard for all biological control introductions worldwide, but this standard does not provide methods by which to assess environmental risks. This review summarizes documented nontarget effects and discusses the development and application of comprehensive and quick-scan environmental risk assessment methods.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

Extinction risk to herring gull populations from DDT exposure.

The impact of toxic chemicals on wild animals and plants can be quantified in terms of the enhanced risk of population extinction. To illustrate the method, we estimated it for herring gull (Larus argentatus) populations in Long Island (NY, USA) exposed to DDT (p,p'-dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) and its metabolites (abbreviated as DDTs) with a strong biomagnification effect. The method is based on a formula of the mean time to population extinction derived for a stochastic differential equation (the canonical model). The intrinsic rate of natural population growth was estimated from the doubling time of an exponentially growing population and the intensity of the environmental fluctuation from the magnitude of population size fluctuation. The effect of exposure to DDTs in reducing the population growth rate was evaluated based on an age-structured population model by assuming that age-specific fertilities (including chick survivorship) are density dependent and sensitive to DDTs exposure but age-specific survivorships are not. The results are expressed in terms of the risk equivalent-the decrease in the carrying capacity K that causes the same enhancement of extinction risk as chemical exposure at a given level. The high concentration reported in Long Island in the 1960s corresponds to the equivalent loss of carrying capacity by 42.5% when K is 100 (the number of breeding females), and coefficient of variation (CV) = 0.2 (sigma2 = 0.0298) [corrected]. Risk equivalent allows us to compare different risk factors and is useful in mitigation banking.

Animals↗
PubMed2002

QT interval dynamics predict mortality in high-risk patients after myocardial infarction.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prognostic properties of the QT/RR relationship in survivors of myocardial infarction with severe left ventricular dysfunction. DESIGN: The QT/RR interval slope was assessed from 24-h electrocardiographic recordings obtained from 241 patients representative of survivors of an acute myocardial infarction with an ejection fraction < or =35%. During a median follow-up of 752 days, 63 patients died. RESULTS: In a multivariate analysis QT/RR at night-time was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality. A linear all-cause mortality predictor score was calculated from age, ejection fraction, QRS duration and QT/RR night, allowing identification of a high-risk one-third of the patients with a relative risk of death at 4.0. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates independent prognostic information of night-time QT/RR dynamics in patients at high risk after myocardial infarction. A linear predictor score calculated from age, ejection fraction, QRS duration and QT/RR night identifies a high-risk one-third of the patients with a 1-year mortality of 36% vs 9% in the remaining patients.

Adrenergic beta-Antagonists↗
PubMed1999

A longitudinal study of Bancroftian filariasis in the Nile Delta of Egypt: baseline data and one-year follow-up.

We initiated a longitudinal study of Bancroftian filariasis to improve understanding of dynamics and risk factors for infection in villages near Cairo, Egypt. Baseline prevalence rates for microfilaremia and filarial antigenemia for 1,853 subjects more than 9 years of age were 7.7% and 11.2%, respectively. Microfilaria counts, antigen levels, and microfilaremia incidence over a 1-year period were all significantly lower in older people. These findings suggest that humans develop partial immunity to Wuchereria bancrofti over time. One-year incidence rates for microfilaremia and antigenemia were 1.8% and 3.1%, respectively. Filarial antigenemia, IgG4 antibody to recombinant antigen BmM14, and household infection were all significant risk factors for microfilaremia incidence. Microfilaria counts and parasite antigen levels were significantly reduced by diethylcarbamazine therapy, but many infected subjects refused treatment, and most treated people were still infected one year later. Incident infections approximately balanced infections lost to produce an apparent state of dynamic equilibrium.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2003

Response of the zooplankton community and environmental fate of perfluorooctane sulfonic acid in aquatic microcosms.

Little is known regarding perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) toxicity to freshwater organisms. This field evaluation aims to assess the toxicological risk associated with exposure to PFOS across levels of biological organization. The analysis of variance study was conducted in replicate (n = 3) 12,000 L outdoor microcosms. Multivariate techniques were used to assess the response of zooplankton community structure and dynamics, as well as a floating macrophyte, Lemna gibba. The zooplankton community was significantly affected (p < 0.05) by the treatment regime given by the Monte Carlo permutations for all sampling times. A community-level no-observable-effect concentration ([NOEC]community) of 3.0 mg/L was determined for the 35-day study, however, longer term studies are recommended. The most sensitive taxonomic groups, Cladocera and Copepoda, were virtually eliminated in 30 mg/L treatments after 7 d. The 42-d 50% inhibition concentration (IC50) for L. gibba frond number was 19.1 mg/L and the NOEC was 0.2 mg/L. Furthermore, we investigated the persistence of PFOS over 285 d in microcosms under natural conditions. Perfluorooctane sulfonic acid concentration showed no drastic reduction in any treatment microcosm over the entire study period, confirming that this compound undergoes little degradation in aquatic systems. Presently, there appears to be little hazard to these freshwater organisms at reported environmental concentrations.

Alkanesulfonic Acids↗
PubMed2000

Head restraints--the neglected countermeasure.

In a rear-end crash, if an occupant's head is unsupported it lags behind as the torso is accelerated forward. This causes the neck to change shape, first taking an s-shape and then bending backward in a 'whiplash' motion. This sudden differential movement of the head and torso can cause 'whiplash' injuries to the neck. This paper reviews methods to minimize the differential head/torso movement and reduce the resulting injuries, focusing on the necessary first step for prevention, which is a head restraint that is behind and close to the back of an occupant's head during the crash. The history of head restraints since the 1950s is reviewed, with particular attention to advanced restraint designs that are proving effective in reducing whiplash injury risk in dynamic tests using a new crash test dummy neck and a new neck injury criterion.

Accidents, Traffic↗
PubMed2002

The effects of migration on the detection of geographic differences in disease risk.

Human migration can make it more difficult to detect geographic differences in disease risk because of the spatial diffusion of people originally exposed in a given geographic area. There are also situations where migration can facilitate the detection of disease attributable to environmental hazards. This paper assesses the effects that migration has on the ability to detect regional variability in disease risk. Several characteristics of migration are discussed, including some that are not widely known. Because of regional variations in mobility rates and other characteristics of the migration process, there is substantial regional variation in the ability to detect spatial variation in risk.

Employment↗
PubMed2006

Quantifying relative extinction risks and targeting intervention for the orchid flora of a natural park in the European preAlps.

Conservation currently relies largely on hindsight because demographic studies identify population decline after the event. Nevertheless, the degree of aggregation within a population is an "instantaneous" characteristic with the potential to identify populations presently at greatest risk of genetic impoverishment (via Allee effects and in-breeding depression) and local decline. We sought to determine the relative extinction risk for sympatric orchid species throughout Monte Barro natural park (Lecco, Italy), based on an index of dispersion (I) calculated from the size and location of subpopulations (recorded with GPS and mapped with GIS). Three population dispersion types were identified: (1) highly aggregated and locally abundant (large subpopulations restricted to particular sites; e.g., Gymnadenia conopsea [L.] R.Br.; I=54.5); (2) widespread and moderately aggregated (opportunistic throughout the elevational range of the mountain; e.g., Listera ovata[L.] R.Br.; I=18.9); and (3) weakly aggregated and locally rare (small, highly diffuse subpopulations; e.g., endemic Ophrys benacensis [Reisigl] O. & E. Danesch & Ehrend.; I=4.4). Type 1 populations are more likely to respond to in situ intervention, whereas type 2 are relatively invasive species for which conservation intervention is not necessary, and type 3 are rare species that are least likely to respond to habitat management, for which ex situ conservation and population reinforcement would be most appropriate. Although our methodology provides only a "snapshot" of aboveground patterns of population dispersion, it can help target the application of in situ and ex situ conservation activities proactively and is of particular utility for parks for which a rapid assessment of local extinction risks is needed.

Biodiversity↗
PubMed2000

Predator and Prey Models with Flexible Individual Behavior and Imperfect Information.

To begin identifying what behavioral details might be needed to characterize community dynamics and stability, we examined the effect of prey behavioral responses to predation risk on community dynamics and stability. We considered the case of prey altering their foraging effort to trade off energy gain and predation risk. We used state-dependent dynamic optimization to calculate the optimal trade-off for four models of prey behaviorally responding to predation risk. We consider a fixed behavior model in which prey use constant levels of foraging effort and three flexible behavior models in which prey change their foraging effort according to their physiological state and their perceived level of predation risk. Flexible behavior was destabilizing at the community level as evidenced by higher predator-prey oscillations and lower community persistence times. The mechanisms by which prey estimated predation risk also affected community stability. We found that community dynamics resulting from prey with flexible behavior and fixed perception of risk approximated community dynamics resulting from prey with flexible behavior and perfect information about predation risk, however neither approximated the community dynamics resulting from prey with flexible behavior and flexible perception of risk. Thus, whether it might be possible to abstract complex behavior with simpler rules when modeling community dynamics depends on the prey's behavioral mechanisms, which are empirically poorly known.

Bayesian updating↗
PubMed1997

Derivation of the linear-logistic model and Cox's proportional hazard model from a canonical system description.

The linear-logistic regression model and Cox's proportional hazard model are widely used in epidemiology. Their successful application leaves no doubt that they are accurate reflections of observed disease processes and their associated risks or incidence rates. In spite of their prominence, it is not a priori evident why these models work. This article presents a derivation of the two models from the framework of canonical modeling. It begins with a general description of the dynamics between risk sources and disease development, formulates this description in the canonical representation of an S-system, and shows how the linear-logistic model and Cox's proportional hazard model follow naturally from this representation. The article interprets the model parameters in terms of epidemiological concepts as well as in terms of general systems theory and explains the assumptions and limitations generally accepted in the application of these epidemiological models.

Communicable Diseases↗
PubMed2003

Trends in productive years of life lost to premature mortality due to coronary heart disease.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the number of productive years of life lost to premature death due to coronary heart disease in Brazil and to report their trends over a 20-year period. METHODS: The Brazilian Ministry of Health raw database on death due to coronary heart disease from 1979-1998 was used. The productive years of life lost to premature death were estimated using 20 and 59 years of age as the cut points for the productive years, replacing the potential years of 1 and 70 of the original formula. A descriptive analysis was provided with adjustments, means, proportions, ratios, percentages of increase or reduction, and mobile means. RESULTS: A 35.8% increase in death for males and 51.3% for females was observed, +43.3% being the relative difference for females. The annual means of the productive years of life prematurely lost were analyzed in 140,865 males and 58,559 females, with the differential ratio between the age groups ranging from 2.3 to 2.5. The annual means were less favorable for males. Within each group (intragroup), the ratios decreased with the increase in age, and the age means at the time of death remained constant. The raw tendencies decreased in the 20- to 29-year age group and increased in the 40- to 59-year age group for females and the 40- to 49-year age group for males. When adjusted, the raw tendencies decreased. CONCLUSION: The 43.3% increase in the number of female deaths as compared with that of males and the ascending tendency in the productive years of life lost in the 40- to 59-year age group point to the influence of unfavorable changes in female lifestyles and suggest a deficiency in programs for prevention and control of risk factors and in their treatment in both sexes.

Adult↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[Universal character of induction of cytogenetic aberrations by low intensity radiation, and estimation of genetic risk].

The analysis of contemporary state of the problem in quantitative estimation of cytogenetic effects within the low dose range is given. Experimentally derived modern data led to a conclusion that the relationship between radiation induced cytogenetic damage and dose within the low dose range is non-linear and universal (concerning test-objects) in nature. Consequences of the received results for biological dosimetry and the estimation of genetic and carcinogenic risk of low dose exposure are discussed.

Animals↗