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Validation techniques for logistic regression models.

This paper presents a comprehensive approach to the validation of logistic prediction models. It reviews measures of overall goodness-of-fit, and indices of calibration and refinement. Using a model-based approach developed by Cox, we adapt logistic regression diagnostic techniques for use in model validation. This allows identification of problematic predictor variables in the prediction model as well as influential observations in the validation data that adversely affect the fit of the model. In appropriate situations, recommendations are made for correction of models that provide poor fit.

Benzothiadiazines

Effect of acute and daily cocaine treatment on extracellular dopamine in the nucleus accumbens.

The behavioral stimulant effect of peripheral cocaine injection into rats is augmented following daily administration. In vivo dialysis in the nucleus accumbens of conscious rats was used to determine if the increased behavioral response following daily cocaine administration is associated with an increase in extracellular dopamine concentration. Acute injection of cocaine (15 mg/kg, ip) produced an elevation in extracellular dopamine concentration in the nucleus accumbens. Following daily pretreatment with cocaine (15 mg/kg, ip X 4 days), a subsequent acute injection of cocaine (15 mg/kg, ip) significantly elevated the extracellular dopamine levels compared to that produced by a single acute injection. Although the levels of extracellular dopamine metabolites was significantly lowered by both acute cocaine and daily cocaine, no difference between these two groups of animals was measured. The increase in extracellular dopamine following a single acute injection of cocaine was not correlated to the motor stimulant response. However, after daily pretreatment with cocaine the motor stimulant response to acute cocaine was positively correlated with the increased extracellular concentration of dopamine in the nucleus accumbens. These data demonstrate that enhanced dopamine release into the nucleus accumbens may mediate the behavioral sensitization produced by daily injections of cocaine, but that other neural systems are influential in mediating the acute motor stimulant effect of cocaine.

3,4-Dihydroxyphenylacetic Acid

Caffeine effects on cyclic AMP levels in the mouse embryonic limb and palate in vitro.

Caffeine is a teratogen that causes limb and palate malformations in rodents. Since the ability to raise cyclic nucleotide levels is a known biological action of caffeine, cyclic AMP levels were measured in CD-1 mouse embryonic forelimb from whole embryo culture and embryonic limb and palate cells grown in primary culture following treatment with various concentrations of caffeine (0, 1, 3, or 10 mM). In forelimb buds from whole embryo culture, a dose-dependent response was observed. Caffeine at 1 mM concentration stimulated cyclic AMP levels to 151% of control value at 60 min. Even greater stimulation of cyclic AMP occurred at higher caffeine concentrations. A dose-dependent response was seen in both limb and palate cell culture. In limb cell culture, all caffeine concentrations significantly stimulated cyclic AMP after 10 min compared to control. In palate cell culture, there was a twofold increase in cyclic AMP at the 1-mM caffeine concentration. At higher caffeine concentrations, cyclic AMP was significantly increased after 60 min. In addition, stimulation of cyclic AMP in cultured limb and palate cells by isoproterenol, a beta-adrenergic agonist, was used as a positive control. Isoproterenol stimulated a 2.5-fold greater response in the palate cells than in the limb bud cells at isoproterenol levels of 10(-5) or 10(-4) M. The increase of cyclic AMP may be influential in the process of abnormal limb or palate development.

Animals

Transplacental distribution of weak acids in mice: accumulation in compartments of high pH.

The transplacental distribution of three weak acids was measured in mice on gestational day 11. The ratio of drug concentration in maternal, embryonic, and extraembryonic compartments compared to maternal plasma followed a consistent hierarchy such that amniotic fluid greater than or equal to exocoelomic fluid greater than embryo greater than embryo plasma greater than maternal skeletal muscle. This distribution pattern correlates well with pH in these compartments and suggests that pH gradients between compartments are an influential factor in determining weak acid drug disposition during pregnancy.

Acids

Mathematical model of antiviral immune response. III. Influenza A virus infection.

We present an approach to studying theoretically the regularities and the kinetic characteristics of influenza A virus (IAV) infection in man. The estimates of the "numbers" (Zinkernagel et al., 1985) characterizing evolutionary established interferon and immune responses in uncomplicated IAV infection are explored by developing a multiparameter mathematical model which allows direct quantitative references to the biological reality. The system of equations of the mathematical model of antiviral immune response, applied earlier to acute hepatitis B virus infection (Marchuk et al., 1991a, b), is modified and extended to describe the joint reaction of the interferon and immune systems in IAV infection. Macrophages infiltrating the airway's epithelium are considered to be the principal source of interferon that induces antiviral resistance in lung epithelial cells. The model is formulated as a delay-differential system with about 60 parameters characterizing the rates of various processes contributing to the typical course of IAV infection. The key aspect of the adjustment between the model and various data on the immunity to influenza is the derivation of a consistent data set--the generalized picture of uncomplicated IAV infection. It serves as a consistent theoretical definition of the structure of the normal course of the infection and the antiviral immune response suitable for model fitting. The parameter estimates for the processes considered in the model are carefully discussed. The quantitative model is used to study the organization and dynamic properties of the processes contributing to IAV infection. The threshold condition for immune protection of virus-free host to infection with IAV is analyzed. The relative roles of humoral, cellular and interferon reactions for the kinetics of the uncomplicated IAV infection are studied. The contribution of parameters of virus-sensitive tissue, interferon and IAV-specific immune processes to the variations of duration and severity of the infection is quantitatively estimated by sensitivity studies. It is shown that the variations in the parameters of a virus-epithelial cell system are more influential on the severity of the infection rather than that of the antiviral immune response. The need for fine co-ordination of the kinetics of the non-specific interferon response and the adaptive antigen-specific immune reactions to provide recovery from the infection is illustrated.

Humans

Will neuroscience explain consciousness?

This paper is a defence of a pragmatic version of mind-brain reductionism from a neuroscientist's point of view. It is claimed that there are good reasons to believe that future neuroscience will be able to explain (in a weak and pragmatic sense) the puzzling aspects of mind and consciousness. Opposition to reductionism comes from both philosophical and empirical quarters. It is argued here that philosophical arguments, such as semantic problems with the concept of identity, are unconvincing and should be regarded with the greatest suspicion. The most influential empirical result that has been claimed to constitute a problem for reductionism is the temporal delay and mental antedating of consciousness found by Benjamin Libet. It is argued that these results, far from being a problem for reductionism, constitute evidence for a particular view of the physiological origins of consciousness. Finally, it is argued that many subjective aspects of experience can already be given satisfactory scientific explanations and that scientific progress is likely to rob the mind and subjective experience of their mystery.

Brain

Social drinking as a health and psychosocial risk factor. Anstie's limit revisited.

This chapter reviews empirical evidence dealing with the risk of using beverage alcohol in quantities generally considered to be within the range of moderate or social drinking. It begins with a discussion of terms and concepts typically employed to define the limits of moderate and social drinking. The historical debate over moderate drinking is considered next, using Francis Anstie's daily limit of 1.5 oz of absolute ethanol as an example of an influential and enduring approach to this issue. The scientific evidence relevant to the association between moderate drinking and damage is reviewed in sections dealing with the risks of acute ingestion of alcohol and the hazards of chronic drinking. In a final section, a multidimensional model of risk is developed to serve as a basis for early intervention and prevention planning. It is concluded that both social and moderate drinking entail risk of health hazards and psychosocial consequences. These risks are not always a direct function of the amount of ethanol consumed but rather reflect complex interactions among a host of antecedent and mediating variables. When these are taken into account, a better estimate of the relative risk of different consequences of drinking can be made.

Alcohol Drinking

Significance of esophageal manometry and long-term pH monitoring for the evaluation of gastroesophageal reflux in infancy and childhood.

From examinations and clinical observations of 40 infants and a varying number of children from 2 to 11 years who all had characteristic symptoms of gastroesophageal reflux (GER), an attempt was made to establish the diagnostic contribution of esophageal manometry and long-term pH monitoring. A correlation between decreased resting pressure (less than or equal to 12 mmHg), or a sphincter insufficiency, and the degree of reflux symptoms was completely absent in infancy and increased only very slightly in young children. The most influential pH monitoring parameters were reflux during sleep, beyond 2 h postprandial, and during crying. These correlated most with the symptoms in infants. On the other hand, clinical developments were independent of the extent of the pH monitoring findings.

Child

Chronic cardiac reactions. III. Factors involved in the development of structural dilatation.

The significance of various factors for the development of structural dilatation in the chronically pressure-loaded and failing heart were evaluated. The investigations were performed on male rats with renal (Goldblatt II) and spontaneous (Aoki-Okamoto) hypertension at different stages of haemodynamic overload. Two groups of SHR were submitted to intermittent feeding (SHR IF); one group received additionally the beta-blocking agent atenolol (50 mg/kg b.w.; SHR IF + beta Bl.). Haemodynamic measurements were carried out under open chest conditions. Myosin isoenzyme pattern, hydroxyproline concentration and circulating blood volume were determined. Transformation to slower myocardium per se, induced by IF, did not lead to significant change in ventricular configuration. After additional blockade of beta-adrenergic receptors there were indications of unfavourable development of left ventricular configuration. Inhibition of hypertrophic mass increase due to curtailed adrenergic stimulation could be an influential factor in the development of dilatation. Further investigations, however, are required to establish the relationship between the adrenergic system, on the one hand, and degree of hypertrophy as well as structural dilatation of the ventricle, on the other hand. The established marked increase in hydroxyproline concentration of the dilated ventricle of SHR in congestive failure is consistent with the assumption of a causal link between the degree of fibrosis and structural dilatation. Observations on rats with aorto-caval shunt and Goldblatt II rats with eccentric hypertrophy and corresponding increase in filling potential or circulating blood volume indicate a correlation between the latter and ventricular size. Thus, we assume that curtailed protein synthesis, fibrosis and regulatory processes related to water and electrolyte balance, but not myocardial transformation per se, play a role in the development of structural dilatation. The relative contribution of each factor, however, may depend on the experimental model that is used.

Animals

The regulation of subcortical dopamine systems by the prefrontal cortex: interactions of central dopamine systems and the pathogenesis of schizophrenia.

A recent hypothesis of the pathogenesis of schizophrenia posits a developmentally-specific dysfunction of the dopaminergic innervation of the prefrontal cortex (PFC; Weinberger, 1987; Berman and Weinberger, 1990). It has been difficult to reconcile this hypothesis with the observation that all clinically effective antipsychotic drugs used for the treatment of schizophrenia block dopamine D2 receptors (see Deutch et al., 1991a). A resolution between the suggestion of functional dopamine (DA) "depletion" in the PFC and enhanced subcortical DA function was offered by studies of Carter, Pycock, and associates (Carter and Pycock, 1980; Pycock et al., 1980a, b). These investigators reported that depletion of DA in the rat PFC enhanced DA utilization in subcortical sites such as the nucleus accumbens septi (NAS) and striatum. Thus, a functional deficit in DA neurotransmission in the PFC would increase subcortical DA turnover, and the D2 receptor blockade induced by antipsychotic drugs would counteract the increase in dopaminergic tone in subcortical sites. This hypothesis has been particularly influential because it incorporates both an explanation for negative symptoms, which are thought to reflect cortical dysfunction (a derangement in DA transmission in the PFC), and the efficacy of antipsychotic drugs in the treatment of positive symptoms (arising from increases in subcortical DA tone). As attractive as this hypothesis has been, the physiological underpinnings that subserve such system interactions have remained elusive. Pycock, Carter, and colleagues (Carter and Pycock, 1980; Pycock et al., 1980a, b) reported that 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA) lesions of the PFC increase DA levels and DA turnover in the striatum; certain aspects of their findings have been confirmed (Martin-Iversen et al., 1986; Leccese and Lyness, 1987; Haroutounian et al., 1988). However, other groups have been unable to confirm either the biochemical or behavioral findings of Pycock and associates (Joyce et al., 1983; Oades et al., 1986; Deutch et al., 1990). Moreover, Pycock and colleagues did not observe consistent effects of PFC DA deafferentation on various indices of subcortical DA function (Carter and Pycock, 1980; Pycock et al., 1980a, b). In light of the importance that such DA system interactions may have in the pathogenesis of schizophrenia, we have reinvestigated the effects of cortical DA lesions on subcortical DA function.

Cerebral Cortex

Cellular interactions in metastasis.

The metastatic cascade is a sequence of events that must be completed for metastases to be established. The realization that tumors are heterogeneous, consisting of many different subpopulations differing in many characteristics, and the belief that there are selective events in the metastatic process have led several laboratories to isolate and characterize variants with both high and low metastatic potential. Typically, the highly metastatic variants have been able to form distant metastases when implanted into the subcutis. Such lines have been popular for studies of metastatic mechanisms and anti-metastatic therapy, but they may be atypical examples, and thus not the best experimental models. Recent studies indicate that normal tissue influences metastasis such that many tumors metastasize only if placed in the orthotopic site. Furthermore, some cells that do not metastasize individually are able to do so in conjunction with other variant subpopulations. Thus, mixtures of tumor cells in the tissue of origin can express a more malignant character. We review possible mechanisms for such influential interactions, as well as the role of cellular interactions in generating heterogeneity and stabilizing tumor characteristics.

Animals

Limited regions of the alpha 2-domain alpha-helix control anti-A2 allorecognition: an analysis using a panel of A2 mutants.

The regions of the HLA-A2 molecule controlling anti-A2 alloreactivity were explored using naturally occurring allelic variants of HLA-A, and a panel of transfectants expressing the products of A2.1 genes that had been mutated at multiple positions encoding residues in the alpha 2 domain alpha-helix. As a means of detecting distant conformational effects, these altered A2.1 molecules were also examined serologically. Amino acid substitutions at the carboxy-terminal end of the alpha 2 domain alpha-helix led to diminished staining with the monoclonal antibody (mAb) MA2.1. The epitope for this antibody has previously been mapped to the alpha 1 domain alpha-helix (residues 62-65). This suggests that interdomain contacts may cause conformational alteration, and that mutants can have distant, as well as local effects. Of the 24 positions where substitutions were made, only six led to loss of the anti-A2 alloresponse by the three clones and three lines that were tested. In addition, the mutations that altered the MA2.1 epitope, located on the alpha 1 domain alpha-helix, did not inhibit allorecognition. This suggests that a limited number of regions on the A2.1 molecule are responsible for allodeterminant expression. The most influential substitutions were those at positions 152, 154, 162, and 166. It is notable that three of these are predicted to be T-cell receptor (Tcr)-contacting residues, and one (152) to contribute to peptide binding. These results suggest that the specificity of alloreactive T cells is determined by exposed polymorphisms, directly contacted by the Tcr, and by concealed polymorphisms which influence peptide binding.

Cell Line

Mercury concentrations in seabirds from colonies in the northeast Atlantic.

Total mercury concentrations were determined in samples of body feathers from a range of common seabird species breeding at Låtrabjarg, northwest Iceland, St. Kilda, Foula and the Firth of Forth, Scotland and Bleiksøy, Syltefjord, and Hornøy, Norway. Seabirds from Låtrabjarg generally exhibited the highest mercury concentrations, with a trend of decreasing mercury concentrations in a southwest to northeast direction in seabirds at the other colonies; seabirds at Hornøy were generally found to have the lowest mercury concentrations. Some species at the Firth of Forth exhibited relatively elevated mercury concentrations compared to those at Foula and Norwegian sites. Inter-colony differences in diet were thought to be relatively small for most species and unlikely to account for the range of mercury concentrations measured in the seabirds (Låtrabjarg: lowest arithmetic mean mercury concentration in common guillemots Uria aalge, 1.6 micrograms/g, s.d. = 0.6, n = 45; highest arithmetic mean mercury concentration in kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla, 5.5 micrograms/g, s.d. = 1.7, n = 36). The oceanic transport of mercury, together with the effects of anthropogenic inputs of mercury to the northeast Atlantic, and the removal of mercury from the water column via biological activity are discussed as influential factors determining the observed patterns of mercury concentration in seabirds.

Animals

Processing vibratory stimuli in isolated frog muscle spindle.

Experiments were performed on isolated frog muscle spindle receptors to study the particular transducer and encoder mechanisms involved in the signal transfer of high frequency sinusoids (vibration). In order to systematically investigate the signal transfer over the entire dynamic range of the receptor, vibration stimuli were applied to the intrafusal muscle bundle at different prestretch levels, so that the isolated receptor potential or the afferent impulse train were recorded at different operating points. The vibration-induced receptor potential displayed severe distortion, because the depolarization during stretch rose steeply, whereas the repolarization transient during release of stretch declined more slowly. The positive peak velocity values of the depolarization transient increased with increasing stimulus frequency, although the ac-component of the receptor potential decreased. The negative peak velocity values of the repolarization transient remained constant throughout the frequency range. The amplitude of the receptor potential grew larger when vibration of constant amplitude was applied at increasing levels of prestretch, revealing another non-linearity of the transducer. These two types of non-linearity were influential in determining the afferent discharge pattern. Each fast depolarization transient facilitated the generation of a single action potential, which therefore could be firmly phase-locked to a small segment of the vibratory movement. Due to its short rise-time, the depolarization transient tended to prevent multiple firing during one stimulus cycle. The prolonged depolarizing afterpotential of the evoked action potential operated in the same direction. Increasing prestretch greatly enhanced the responsiveness of the spindle to vibration. Thus, under appropriate conditions, the afferent discharge was driven in 1:1 synchrony with the vibration. An analysis is given of the after-effects of repetitive activity at the receptor site. The progressive decline of the mean membrane voltage during long lasting stimulation and the "post-tetanic" hyperpolarization ("off-effect") on termination of the vibration suggest the action of an electrogenic pumping mechanism. As a consequence, the afferent impulse train possessed a complex structure segmented into several transient and steady states, which differed in impulse rate, phase response, and in the degree of phase-locking.

Action Potentials

Visual and vestibular contributions to prelanding EMG during jump-downs in cats.

Prelanding EMG responses in elbow flexors and extensors were assessed during landing from jump-downs (0.6, 0.8, and 1.0 m) in normal blindfolded cats and labyrinthectomized cats with and without vision occluded. Jump-down conditions determined the strategy of response elicited in the normal cat. When the height could be anticipated by the blindfolded animals, a response typical of a jump in the presence of visual cues occurred; extensor activity began an average of 73 +/- 12 ms before landing, while flexor activity was minimal. When the animal was 'tricked' by an unexpected change in jump height, it displayed a pattern of EMG activity appropriate for the jump height just previously experienced, not for the actual height. If the jump height was uncertain, the cat commonly exhibited continuous extensor activity that began soon (100-150 ms) after both forepaws left the platform. In the presence of visual cues, labyrinthectomized cats were able to execute jump-downs at 0.6 m. Onset of extensor EMG activity was normal during the first postoperative jumps, although the typical two-burst pattern was absent, and average prelanding extensor IEMG was less than that of the control jumps. In addition, landing was usually awkward, as the forelimbs collapsed and the ventral surface of the trunk contacted the landing pad. During subsequent sessions, the two-burst pattern reappeared, average prelanding extensor IEMG increased, and flight position improved, so that landing occurred without the forelimbs collapsing. Without visual cues, the labyrinthectomized cats were unable to execute a jump-down. These results suggest that visual input may normally regulate timing of the extensor prelanding motor program; however, without visual input, prelanding responses can be preprogrammed. When visual input is present, vestibular input during the flight phase may be primarily manifested as gain in extensor activity rather than in the temporal sequencing. When visual input is absent and jump height is uncertain, vestibular input may become more influential in determining the pattern of prelanding activity.

Animals

Control of feeding movements in the freshwater snail Planorbis corneus. III. Organization of the feeding rhythm generator.

(1) Neurons of different groups (for group classification, see Arshavsky et al. 1988a) have been polarized through an intracellular recording microelectrode in Planorbis corneus buccal ganglia during feeding rhythm generation. Group 1 neurons, active in the quiescence (Q) and in the protractor (P) phases of the cycle, and also group 2 and 4 neurons, active in the retractor (R) phase, have proved to be "influential", i.e., altering the rhythm generator operation. (2) Injection of a depolarizing current into group 1 neurons caused an increase of the rate of depolarization that neurons of this group exhibit in the Q- and P-phases of the feeding cycle. As a result, Q-phase shortened, the P-phase became longer, and the feeding rhythm accelerated. Opposite effects occurred when a hyperpolarizing current was injected into group 1 neurons. In some of the experiments, the hyperpolarization of group 1 neurons resulted in cessation of both their activity and the activity of all other protractor neurons. As a result, the P-phase of the cycle disappeared, i.e., the rhythm generator transited from A mode of operation to B mode. (3) With hyperpolarization of individual group 2 or 4 neurons, excitation of the R-phase neurons was delayed and the feeding rhythm phase shifted. This delay was accompanied by the enhanced activity of protractor neurons. (4) A generator model is considered in which two groups (1 and 2) of endogeneously active neurons are coordinated by the excitatory effect of group 1 on group 2 and the inhibitory action of group 2 on group 1. (5) Evidence is given that the different modes of rhythm generator operation (A, B and C, see Arshavsky et al. 1988a) are determined by different tonic inflow to group 1 neurons.

Action Potentials

Vomiting in children following head injury.

The criteria for hospital admission of children who have suffered a minor head injury are highly subjective. Often the presence of post-traumatic emesis becomes an influential factor, but the mechanisms that trigger emesis following minor head injuries are not known. From a prospective study of 96 consecutive children with their first mild head injury (GCS 13-15) and a retrospective study of 29 consecutive more seriously injured children (GCS 8-12), we conclude that post-traumatic emesis is more common: (1) following minor head injuries than following more severe head injuries (P less than 0.05); (2) in children over 2 years old; (P less than 0.001); (3) in children injured within an hour of a meal or snack (p less than 0.001). The presence of a skull fracture or the site of the impact does not influence the incidence or duration of post-traumatic emesis. Retching and vomiting generally subside within 3 h in children injured within an hour of a meal or snack. When vomiting appears in children injured more than an hour after a meal or a snack, it may be quite protracted (mean = 7.5 h). Children over 2 years of age with post-traumatic emesis who are neurologically stable following a mild head injury that occurred within an hour of a meal or snack can be expected to improve quickly. Their counterparts injured more than an hour after a meal or snack are likely to remain distressed much longer and are best admitted to hospital.

Age Factors

How variations in the composition of urine influence urease-induced crystallization.

To Study how the composition of urine influences urease-induced crystallization, human urine samples were incubated with urease and the subsequent precipitation measured. Beside the pH increase, the urinary content of magnesium and calcium had profound effects on the precipitation of magnesium ammonium phosphate and calcium phosphate, respectively. Urine phosphate, ammonium and osmolarity had no direct effects on the precipitation. Among the urine components with potential inhibitory properties, only albumin was found to be correlated with such an effect. This inhibitory activity was especially influential in urines with high calcium and magnesium levels. These findings suggest that the composition of urine could also influence the formation of stones consisting of magnesium ammonium phosphate and calcium phosphate.

Calcium Oxalate