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PubMed2005

[Analysis of oral mucositis risk factors during radiotherapy for nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients and establishment of a discriminant model].

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE: Oral mucositis caused by radiotherapy is the most familiar complication of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), and it has strong impact on the patients. This study was to screen high risk factors of oral mucositis, and establish a mathematical model for forecasting its incidence probability in NPC patients. METHODS: Clinical and experimental factors of 102 NPC patients with oral mucositis were analyzed by univariate analysis, multifactorial Logistic regression, and discriminant analysis. RESULTS: Multifactorial Logistic regression showed that chemotherapy, bad oral hygiene status, not using antibiotic at early stage mucositis, smoking history were high risk factors of serious mucositis. A discriminant function was set up using these 4 factors, with positive forecast value of 75.9%, negative forecast value of 79.5%, sensitivity of 83.0%, and specificity of 71.4%. CONCLUSIONS: Chemotherapy, bad oral hygiene status, not using antibiotic at early stage mucositis, smoking history are high risk factors of serious mucositis after radiotherapy for NPC; early treatment has some preventive effect on it. The discriminant function may help to predict the incidence of serious oral mucositis.

Adult↗

PubMed2006

[A study on dental manpower distribution in Shanghai Pudong new district].

PURPOSE: A study of dental manpower distribution was made in Shanghai Pudong new district in order to analyze the needs and demands for dental services in Shanghai Pudong new district, to forecast the developmental trends of dental demand in the future and to provide basis for regional programs of dental manpower in the urban areas of China. METHODS: An analysis was made in 601 subjects taken from all age groups in Shanghai Pudong new district by stratified and cluster random sampling and in 83 medical institutions of stomatology in Shanghai Pudong new district by mass examination. The amount of dental manpower need and demand was computed and forecasted by means of health care need and demand and proportional analogy methods. RESULTS: The total amounts needed were 755-834 dentists. The total amounts demanded were 285-314 dentists. It was forecasted that the figures would be 392-1041 in the year of 2010. The prevalence of oral disease was 90.18%, but only 37.66% of subjects visited dentist in a year. The ratio of dentists to the population was 1:9375. CONCLUSION: The unbalance between demand for and supply of dental manpower was mainly due to negative awareness of people, the irrationalness of demand levels, problems from service provider and the irrationalness of dental manpower levels.

China↗

PubMed1991

[Methods in individualized pharmacotherapy of diseases of the digestive and the respiratory systems in children].

The possibility to forecast pharmacotherapeutic effect in children with chronic diseases of breathing and digestion was studied. It was established that the use of pathogenic and associative markers, characteristic of the background state of a child as compared to individual peculiarities of pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of a certain drug, will allow to forecast the efficiency of drug treatment of chronic diseases of breathing organs (bronchitis, pneumonia, asthmatic bronchitis) and digestion (gastritis, cholecystocholangitis). The use of aminophenazone marker in children with above mentioned pathology became the basis of research into efficiency of spasmolytics with similar type of metabolism (papaverini hydrochloridum, aminophyllinum, drotaverinum). Mathematic models of spasmolytics efficiency forecast was developed by many factor computer analysis.

Aminopyrine↗

PubMed1990

[Elaboration and use of the methods of computer-assisted diagnosis of cerebrovascular pathology].

The purpose of the work was to analyze the experience with the trial of diagnostic algorithms to specify possibilities of differential diagnosis and forecasting the course or outcome of cerebrovascular diseases. Detailed study of 922 clinico-anatomic cases (547 with hemorrhagic brain stroke, 157 with ischemic, 218 with pseudostroke) enabled revealing differential-diagnostic criteria for the pathological patterns under study bearing in mind disease pathomorphism. Analysis was made of the tabular diagnosis of cerebrovascular pathology and of the experience gained with the trail of diverse diagnostic algorithms for staged diagnosis of brain stroke and pseudostroke, different varieties of cerebral hemorrhages (10 varieties). The results of the use of four algorithms for forecasting hemorrhagic brain stroke were studied and compared. The accuracy of the diagnosis and forecasting amounts from 55 to 82.3% depending on the problem to be solved and the algorithm used. The data show the necessity of the careful providing of the algorithm choice as dependent on the problem raised.

Adult↗

PubMed1990

[The use of Bayes' theorem in controlling the coming epidemic peak of epidemic meningitis in the 1980s].

To control the coming epidemic peak of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis (ECM) in the 1980s in the regions with 100 million population in China, the mathematical models based upon Bayes' theorem (BT) were established and used respectively in provincial, regional and county's level. Reports of ECM from each ten-day's period or each month during the meningitis season were analysed to create forecast models. Records of ECM vaccinating rate in previous years were fully taken into account to modify the theoretical values. Calibration, split-sample, random-sample selection, as well as actual forecast tests, were used to check the efficiency of the models. The distribution of meningitis vaccine was planned according to the final predictive results. The incidence rates of ECM of above regions decreased obviously faster than other areas in China. Attributing the application of BT forecast research, it was estimated only in Henan province 79795 ECM cases; 4388 deaths and 21 million Yuan economic damage were avoided during the 4 years period, from 1985 to 1988.

Bayes Theorem↗

PubMed1997

A prototype Web site for immunization knowledge maintenance.

IMM/Web is a prototype Web site designed to assist in the maintenance of the knowledge required to perform computer-based forecasting for childhood immunization. IMM/Web operates in conjunction with IMM/Serve, a immunization forecasting program that takes a child's immunization history and produces recommendations as to which vaccinations are due, and which should be scheduled next. IMM/Serve's domain knowledge is expressed in both tabular and rule-based form. Using IMM/Web, the various tabular forecasting parameters can be modified via the Web. Test cases can then be generated automatically which can be used to help verify the new version of logic. Finally, the test cases can be automatically passed for IMM/Serve to analyze using the newly defined parameters. The IMM/Web project is exploring how the process of updating, customizing, and testing new versions of a computer-based clinical guideline might be performed and guided in an organized fashion via the World-Wide Web.

Child↗

PubMed1991

Analysis and prediction of the population in Spain: 1910-2000.

"The starting hypothesis of this paper was the actual occurrence of important interactions between demographic and socio-economic factors when trying to reach population forecasts that may be more efficient than those obtained by mere extrapolative methods. In order to be able to implement this approach to the Spanish case it has been necessary to reconstruct first the Spanish population series by age and sex groups from 1910 to 1980. Later, we proceed to obtain population forecasts using alternative modeling strategies and comment on the potential problems that the new demographic situation may have for future public policy."

Age Distribution↗

PubMed1997

Further thoughts on simplicity and complexity in population projection models.

"This article is a review of--and response to--a special issue of Mathematical Population Studies that focused on the relative performance of simpler vs. more complex population projection models. I do not attempt to summarize or comment on each of the articles in the special issue, but rather present an additional perspective on several points: definitions of simplicity and complexity, empirical evidence regarding population forecast accuracy, the costs and benefits of disaggregation, the potential benefits of combining forecasts, criteria for evaluating projection models, and issues of economic efficiency in the production of population projections."

Cost-Benefit Analysis↗

PubMed1991

Effect of aggregation on the estimation of trend in mortality.

"There are three approaches to analyzing and forecasting age-specific mortality: (1) analyze age-specific data directly, (2) analyze each cause-specific mortality series separately and add the results, (3) analyze cause-specific mortality series jointly and add the results. We show that if linear models are used for cause-specific mortality, then the three approaches often give close results even when cause-specific series are correlated. This result holds for cross-correlations arising from random misclassification of deaths by cause, and also for certain patterns of systematic misclassification.... The results are illustrated with U.S. age-specific mortality: (1) analyse age-specific mortality data from 1968-1985. In some cases the aggregate forecasts appear to be the more credible ones." This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1990 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 56, No. 3, Fall 1990, p. 407).

Americas↗

PubMed1995

Predictability, complexity, and catastrophe in a collapsible model of population, development, and environmental interactions.

"More and more population forecasts are being produced with associated 95 percent confidence intervals. How confident are we of those confidence intervals? In this paper, we produce a simulated dataset in which we know both past and future population sizes, and the true 95 percent confidence intervals at various future dates. We use the past data to produce population forecasts and estimated 95 percent confidence intervals using various functional forms. We, then, compare the true 95 percent confidence intervals with the estimated ones. This comparison shows that we are not at all confident of the estimated 95 percent confidence intervals." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Evaluation Studies as Topic↗

PubMed1995

Simple versus complex models: evaluation, accuracy, and combining.

"This paper argues that it is premature to decide whether simple forecasting models in demography are more (or less) accurate than complex models and whether causal models are more (or less) accurate than noncausal models. It is also too early to say under what conditions one type of model can outperform another. The paper also questions the wisdom of searching for a single best model or approach. It suggests that combining forecasts may improve accuracy." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Evaluation Studies as Topic↗

PubMed1980

Future changes in the size and composition of the British labour force: a regional projection exercise.

"The main purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for generating parallel projections of regional population and labour force which not only incorporates expected age/sex/marital-status/regional differences in the economic activity rates but at the same time takes account of demographic factors such as fertility, mortality and interregional migration in the overall projections." A model is developed and adapted to project the British regional population and labor force for 1976 and 1981. These forecasts are then evaluated by comparing them with Office of Population Censuses and Surveys forecasts for the same years (SUMMARY IN FRE, GER)

Developed Countries↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Births and cohort size.

Ahlburg (1983, 1986) tested a simple version of Easterlin's relative-cohort-size model of fertility on the basis of U.S. and Canadian post-war data. His conclusion was that the Easterlin model fits the data very well and can therefore be used for calculating forecasts. However, the model he estimated is oversimplified. In this paper an alternative specification is presented. The model is applied to Dutch fertility data. The Easterlin effect is found to affect the movement of births in the Netherlands during the period 1950-85, but a declining long-term trend in average family size proves far more important in explaining post-war births. The model forecasts a rise of births until 2000.

Adult↗

PubMed1984

Regional economic-demographic modelling and projection: review of an international conference.

A review of the papers presented at the International Conference on Forecasting Regional Population Change and Its Economic Determinants and Consequences, held at Airlie House, Virginia, from May 26 to 29, 1982, is provided. "This review...concludes that [regional economic-demographic] modelling is at an early stage of development and currently provides only an adjunct to more conventional methods of regional forecasting. Given expected future improvements in the theory, data and techniques of economic-demographic modelling, such models could soon provide a worthwhile alternative."

Congresses as Topic↗

PubMed1997

Bayesian demography: projecting the Iraqi Kurdish population, 1977-1990.

"Projecting populations that have sparse or unreliable data, such as those of many developing countries, presents a challenge to demographers. The assumptions that they make to project data-poor populations frequently fall into the realm of ¿educated guesses', and the resulting projections, often regarded as forecasts, are valid only to the extent that the assumptions on which they are based reasonably represent the past or future, as the case may be. These traditional projection techniques do not incorporate a demographer's assessment of uncertainty in the assumptions. Addressing the challenges of forecasting a data-poor population, we project the Iraqi Kurdish population using a Bayesian approach. This approach incorporates a demographer's uncertainty about past and future characteristics of the population in the form of elicited prior distributions."

Asia↗

PubMed1994

[Modeling and projecting mortality in Chile].

"In a recent paper, Lee and Carter developed a new method for analyzing and forecasting time series of age specific mortality, and applied it to the U.S. population. In this paper, we extend that method to deal with various problems of incomplete data common in Third World populations, and then apply the method to forecast mortality in Chile." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Americas↗

PubMed1996

[Migration in the countries of the European Economic Area].

"During the last decade the number of migrants entering the European Economic Area has increased considerably. The governments in many countries have responded to this increase by implementing restrictive immigration policies. Most countries forecast a decline in net migration." Information is provided on push and pull factors, net migration, asylum applications, and forecasts are made for the years 2000 to 2010. (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Demography↗

PubMed1992

[The PRIMOS household model].

The PRIMOS model, developed to forecast changes in household composition in the Netherlands, is applied to official data for the period 1977-1990. "The forecast results in an increasing number of households in the Netherlands, from 5.95 million in 1990 to 7.37 million in 2015." Projections by region are also included. (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Developed Countries↗