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Combining tabular, rule-based, and procedural knowledge in computer-based guidelines for childhood immunization.

IMM/Serve is a computer program which implements the clinical guidelines for childhood immunization. IMM/Serve accepts as input a child's immunization history. It then indicates which vaccinations are due and which vaccinations should be scheduled next. The clinical guidelines for immunization are quite complex and are modified quite frequently. As a result, it is important that IMM/Serve's knowledge be represented in a format that facilitates the maintenance of that knowledge as the field evolves over time. To achieve this goal, IMM/Serve uses four representations for different parts of its knowledge base: (1) Immunization forecasting parameters that specify the minimum ages and wait-intervals for each dose are stored in tabular form. (2) The clinical logic that determines which set of forecasting parameters applies for a particular patient in each vaccine series is represented using if-then rules. (3) The temporal logic that combines dates, ages, and intervals to calculate recommended dates, is expressed procedurally. (4) The screening logic that checks each previous dose for validity is performed using a decision table that combines minimum ages and wait intervals with a small amount of clinical logic. A knowledge maintenance tool, IMM/Def, has been developed to help maintain the rule-based logic. The paper describes the design of IMM/Serve and the rationale and role of the different forms of knowledge used.

Age Factors↗

A heuristic expert system for forest fire guidance in Greece.

Forests and forestlands are common inheritance for all Greeks and a piece of the national wealth that must be handed over to the next generations in the best possible condition. After 1974, Greece faces a severe forest fire problem and forest fire forecasting is the process that will enable the Greek ministry of Agriculture to reduce the destruction. This paper describes the basic design principles of an Expert System that performs forest fire forecasting (for the following fire season) and classification of the prefectures of Greece into forest fire risk zones. The Expert system handles uncertainty and uses heuristics in order to produce scenarios based on the presence or absence of various qualitative factors. The initial research focused on the construction of a mathematical model which attempted to describe the annual number of forest fires and burnt area in Greece based on historical data. However this has proven to be impossible using regression analysis and time series. A closer analysis of the fire data revealed that two qualitative factors dramatically affect the number of forest fires and the hectares of burnt areas annually. The first is political stability and national elections and the other is drought cycles. Heuristics were constructed that use political stability and drought cycles, to provide forest fire guidance. Fuzzy logic was applied to produce a fuzzy expected interval for each prefecture of Greece. A fuzzy expected interval is a narrow interval of values that best describes the situation in the country or a part of the country for a certain time period. A successful classification of the prefectures of Greece in forest fire risk zones was done by the system, by comparing the fuzzy expected intervals to each other. The system was tested for the years 1994 and 1995. The testing has clearly shown that the system can predict accurately, the number of forest fires for each prefecture for the following year. The average accuracy was as high as 85.25% for 1995 and 80.89% for 1994. This makes the Expert System a very important tool for forest fire prevention planning.

Conservation of Natural Resources↗

Predicting daily visits to a walk-in clinic and emergency department using calendar and weather data.

We studied the association between calendar and weather variables and daily unscheduled patient volume in a walk-in clinic and emergency department. Calendar variables (season, week of month, day of week, holidays, and federal check-delivery days) and weather variables (high temperature and snowfall) forecasted clinic volume, explaining 84% of daily variance and 44% of weekday variance. Staffing according to predicted volume could have decreased overstaffing from 59% to 15% of days, but would have increased understaffing from 2% to 18% of days. Models using calendar and weather data that forecast local utilization may help to schedule staffing for walk-in clinics and emergency departments more efficiently.

Emergency Service, Hospital↗

Soluble CD4 concentrations predict relapse of post-partum thyroiditis.

Post-partum thyroiditis (PPT) is a common autoimmune thyroid disorder which results in significant morbidity at a critical time of a woman's life. The presence of anti-thyroglobulin (anti-TG) and, more so, anti-thryroperoxidase (anti-TPO) antibodies in the first trimester of pregnancy has been reported to forecast subsequent PPT. Despite their predictive value, these tests lack in specificity. We have sought to find an alternative that is more specific and, ideally, which could be tested immediately proximate to the event. We have taken advantage of the high recurrence rate of PPT in subsequent pregnancies to perform a prospective study of serum soluble CD4 (sCD4) and CD8 (sCD8) levels in 22 pregnant women who had at least one previous episode of PPT. This group was matched with 21 pregnant women of comparable age with no evidence of thyroid disease. Both groups of women were sampled in each of the three trimesters of pregnancy, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months post-partum for sCD4, sCD8, thyroid function parameters and antibodies. Twelve of the 22 women with previous PPT had recurrent disease; they were more likely to be cigarette smokers and to have a family history of autoimmune disorders (p<0.05, for both) than those who did not. Half of these women had high anti-TG or anti-TPO each in the first trimester compared to none among those without recurrent PPT and 2/21 controls. Serum sCD8 levels showed no changes over the observation points among the two PPT patient subsets and were comparable to those of the controls. By contrast, serum sCD4 concentrations showed divergent changes in the group with recurrent PPT in the course of pregnancy and postpartum period compared to those without disease recurrence and controls: sCD4 failed to show the physiological fall in the third trimester of pregnancy [19.0+/-1.7 (+/-SD) U/ml vs 15.6+/-2.3 U/ml in controls, NS]. This trend was continued into the first month post-partum when sCD4 levels were clearly higher than in controls (22.1+/-2.6 U/ml compared to 17.9+/-1.9 U/ml in controls, p<0.001) and well before the episode of PPT. An sCD4 serum level outside the 95% reference range at 1 month post-partum (9/12 in recurrent PPT, 1/21 in controls) yields a relative risk of 6.9 (chi2=14.67, p<0.001) compared to 3.3 for first trimester thyroid antibody positivity (p=0.029). In summary, we describe a reliable test for forecasting PPT that can be obtained immediately proximate to the possible event. If our findings are verified in larger studies, the measurement of serum sCD4 concentration drawn in the first month post-partum may prove an ideal test for population screening for impending PPT.

Adult↗

Artificial neural networks as a useful tool to predict the risk level of Betula pollen in the air.

An increasing percentage of the European population suffers from allergies to pollen. The study of the evolution of air pollen concentration supplies prior knowledge of the levels of pollen in the air, which can be useful for the prevention and treatment of allergic symptoms, and the management of medical resources. The symptoms of Betula pollinosis can be associated with certain levels of pollen in the air. The aim of this study was to predict the risk of the concentration of pollen exceeding a given level, using previous pollen and meteorological information, by applying neural network techniques. Neural networks are a widespread statistical tool useful for the study of problems associated with complex or poorly understood phenomena. The binary response variable associated with each level requires a careful selection of the neural network and the error function associated with the learning algorithm used during the training phase. The performance of the neural network with the validation set showed that the risk of the pollen level exceeding a certain threshold can be successfully forecasted using artificial neural networks. This prediction tool may be implemented to create an automatic system that forecasts the risk of suffering allergic symptoms.

Air Pollutants↗

Changes in hip fracture epidemiology: redistribution between ages, genders and fracture types.

After several reports of increasing hip fracture incidence some studies have suggested a trend-break. In a previous study of hip fractures we forecast a 70% increase in the total number of fractures from 1985 up to year 2000. We therefore studied the incidence trend for the last 15 years and supply a new prognosis up to year 2010. We recorded all incident hip fractures treated in the county of Ostergötland, Sweden (approximately 400,000 inhabitants) 1982-96. A total of 11,517 hip fractures in men and women aged 50 years and above were included in the study after cross-validation between a computerized register of radiologic investigations and the hospital records. The projected number of fractures up to year 2010 was estimated by a Poisson regression model, considering both age and year of fracture in every single year 1982-96 for the respective fracture type and gender, and applied to the projected population. The annual number of hip fractures increased by 39% in men and 25% in women during the study period. Amongst men, the age-adjusted incidence of cervical fractures increased from 188 to 220/100,000 and of trochanteric fractures from 138 to 170/100,000. In women the incidence of cervical fractures decreased from 462/100,000 to 418/100,000 and of trochanteric fractures from 407/100,000 to 361/100,000. Cervical/trochanteric fracture incidence rate ratio leveled off, and also the female/male fracture rate ratio declined. A prognosis assuming that the incidence development will continue as during 1982-96, and a population in agreement with the forecast, predicts that the total age- and sex-adjusted number of hip fractures will decrease by 11% up to year 2010 compared with 1996. In women and men, however, a decrease of 19% and an increase of 7% respectively were projected. If the age- and sex-specific incidence remains at the same level as at the end of the study period, no significant change in the total numbers will occur. A trend-break was thus found in hip fracture incidence for women but not for men. Whether this is due to therapeutic and/or preventive measures in women is unknown. According to the most probable scenario a substantial increase in male trochanteric fractures (36%) is expected up to 2010, while all other hip fractures in both genders will decrease by 4-32% resulting in a total reduction of 11%.

Age Distribution↗

The economy as a factor in motor vehicle fatalities, suicides, and homicides.

The effect of the economy as reflected by employment and unemployment rates on motor vehicle fatalities, suicides, and homicides is examined using several national databases. First, regression models are fit to these fatality data-overall as well as for a variety of age-race-gender subgroups. Then time series models-autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and structural time series analysis-were fit to the data, both with and without the economic indicators, to examine the relative ability of the models to forecast subsequent fatalities. No evidence was found using any of the modeling techniques that knowledge of yearly values of rates of employment, unemployment, and nonlabor force leads to improved forecasts of the level of motor vehicle fatalities, suicides, or homicides in the total U.S. population or within various subpopulations of interest.

Accidents, Traffic↗

Prediction of mandibular incisor and canine crowding changes in the mixed dentition.

To test the hypothesis that preeruptive tooth positions and dental arch parameters might forecast crowding changes, a sample of 47 aboriginal children (26 males, 21 females) was selected stringently on the basis of Class 1 characteristics and an untreated dentition unaffected by caries or attrition. Crowding scores, radiographic relationships of 765E, and dental arch dimensions were evaluated for the mixed dentition (Stage 1, 8.91 +/- 1.05 years) and earliest emergence of the permanent dentition (Stage 2, 12.48 +/- 0.97 years). Changes between the stages were calculated and the sample was divided into two groups, according to an increase (Group 1) or decrease (Group 2) in incisor and canine crowding. Multivariate and multiple regression analyses were used to identify predictors (Stage 1 radiographic and dental arch parameters) of incisor and canine crowding behavior. Dental arch form and tooth size were important factors in measuring the amount of incisor or canine crowding at Stage 1 and Stage 2. Neither the radiographic nor the dental arch predictors proved useful in forecasting crowding changes. Group 2 dental arches tended to be initially narrower, shallower, and more crowded; however, they showed greater molar and canine width expansion and lessened arch depth reduction than Group 1 cases. Many cases showed a reduction in canine crowding from mixed to permanent dentition. This appeared to be largely independent of the observed incisor crowding. Sexual, racial, and individual variations in dentofacial pattern reinforce the need to carefully consider interceptive extraction or space-regaining therapy for each patient because of the unpredictability of crowding behavior during the transition from mixed to permanent dentition.

Australia↗

Quantitative estimates for the effects of AIDS public education on HIV infections.

Previous projections of HIV infection have not accounted explicitly for AIDS public information. The present analysis does so, using computer content analysis of AIDS news stories to make time trend forecasts of both HIV infection and knowledge, attitudes, and sexual behaviors relevant to AIDS. The data show that there was a rapid rise in infections before public information took effect. Then news about AIDS, its modes of transmission and high risk groups led to a 3-4-fold decrease in high risk sex among gay/bisexual men by the late 1980s. The result was a diminished infection rate saving 580,000 to 1.9 million lives. In more recent times, rates of HIV infection are forecast to increase again, although slowly, in small part because people are less prudent and in large part because the pool of infected individuals has greatly expanded.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

Are environmental scanning units effective?

Many authorities have urged companies to set up environmental scanning to assist corporate planning. Some advocates have recommended a unit at corporate level. This would give breadth of view and penetration into the future. It would arm decision makers with accurate forecasts. The information would be broad in scope and future directed. It could provide also assumptions for long-range planning. The Fahey and King study produced a model of corporate scanning types. The data showed that environmental information was built into the plan. Though the political environment was important, scanning was inadequate. The best location for scanning was not at corporate level and most firms used irregular methods. The Thomas study concluded that effective environmental scanning was permanent and multi level and that 'best practice' was continuous scanning. In 1978 the sample organizations were revisited. Five of the twelve have not changed their practice. The factors which encouraged a continuous model were the attitudes of academics and business media, demonstrated success of the units, the right kind of personnel. Contrary influences were changes in top management, decentralization moves, resource cuts, defining the environment and its significance, the availability of scanning competent personnel, surprise itself, and the availability of alternatives e.g. external forecasts.

Forecasting↗

The propagation of uncertainty in human mortality processes operating in stochastic environments.

This paper presents a model describing how the uncertainty due to influential exogenous processes combines with stochasticity intrinsic to physiological aging processes and propagates through time to generate uncertainty about the future physiological state of the population. Variance expressions are derived for (a) the future values of the physiological variables under the assumption that external factors evolve under a linear stochastic diffusion process, and (b) the cohort survival functions and cohort life expectancies which reflect the uncertainty in the future values of the physiological variables. The model implies that a major component of uncertainty in forecasts of the physiological characteristics of a closed cohort is due to differential rates of survival associated with different realizations of the external process. This suggests that the limits to forecasting may be different in physiological systems subject to systematic mortality than in physical systems such as weather where the concepts of closed cohorts and of mortality selection have no simple analog.

Aging↗

Conceptual issues in assessing the economic effects of the HIV epidemic.

Estimating the economic effects of the HIV epidemic presents some remarkably difficult challenges. Forecasting the number of cases is complicated by virological and statistical uncertainties and by the peculiar demographics of its victims. The effects of prevention strategies are unclear while rapidly changing approaches to treatment make forecasting the costs of care hazardous. Use of the human capital model for assessing social costs (foregone national product) is hampered by lack of data on the earnings and consumption of people infected with HIV. Policy changes are likely and will significantly affect the cost burden and its distribution across payers.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

The epidemiological future.

Forecasting the epidemiological future of industrialized countries for about thirty or maybe fifty years has been attempted. This will be determined by the future condition of relevant factors of the physical-biological, socio-economic and cultural environment of the population in question and by the socio-demographic structures of the population itself. It is highly probable that substantial development in prevention and curing of diseases, and in a few cases even breakthroughs will occur in the next three decades or so. Also public awareness with respect to health promotion can be expected to rise substantially in the future. Under these circumstances health conscious behaviour and sophisticated medical technology will have a much more serious impact on the health of the population in the future than at present. The aging of the population will become faster as fertility is expected to remain constant at very low levels and mortality will become the major cause of aging. Consequently general mortality will eventually increase, yet infant mortality will further decrease and will be as low as 6.0 per thousand live births by the 2020's. Lifespan prolongation by selective dietary restrictions would become a feasible human option. If some chronic degenerative diseases will be eliminated or will be put at least under control then life expectancy at birth can be as high as 84.3 years. However, it has been suggested that delaying the progression of chronic diseases is more realistic than eliminating them. Consequently the prevalence of chronic disease in the population will increase, along with the associated costs of treatment and care. Yet another school of thinking forecasts the 'compression of morbidity'. It is an open question whether inequalities in health will increase or decrease. AIDS infection will spread dramatically, but mainly in the third world and prevention strategies will use general information, education and counselling in order to increase public awareness with respect to the chances of avoiding infection.

Chronic Disease↗

Double quantization of the regressor space for long-term time series prediction: method and proof of stability.

The Kohonen self-organization map is usually considered as a classification or clustering tool, with only a few applications in time series prediction. In this paper, a particular time series forecasting method based on Kohonen maps is described. This method has been specifically designed for the prediction of long-term trends. The proof of the stability of the method for long-term forecasting is given, as well as illustrations of the utilization of the method both in the scalar and vectorial cases.

Forecasting↗

Evaluation of the ability of an artificial neural network model to assess the variation of groundwater quality in an area of blackfoot disease in Taiwan.

The back-propagation (BP) artificial neural network (ANN) is applied to forecast the variation of the quality of groundwater in the blackfoot disease area in Taiwan. Three types of BP ANN models were established to evaluate their learning performance. Model A included five concentration parameters as input variables for seawater intrusion and three concentration parameters as input variables for arsenic pollutant, respectively, whereas models B and C used only one concentration parameter for each. Furthermore, model C used seasonal data from two seasons to train the ANN, whereas models A and C used only data from one season. The results indicate that model C outperforms models A and B. Model C can describe complex variation of groundwater quality and be used to perform reliable forecasting. Moreover, the number of hidden nodes does not significantly influence the performance of the ANN model in training or testing.

Arsenic Poisoning↗

Analysis and prediction of traffic fatalities resulting from angle collisions including the effect of vehicles' configuration and compatibility.

Although the rapid growth in light truck vehicle (LTV) sales, including minivans, sports utility vehicles (SUVs), and light-duty trucks, has not been associated with an overall increase in collisions or traffic deaths in the US, there is a need for a research program to determine whether particular types of collisions have become more frequent or injurious because of the increase in the percent of LTVs in traffic. This paper presents an analysis of the effect of the increasing number of LTV registrations on fatal angle collision trends in the US. The analysis investigates the number of annual fatalities that result from angle collisions as well as collision configuration (car-car, car-LTV, LTV-car, and LTV-LTV). The analysis uses the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) crash databases covering the period 1975-2000. Results showed that death rates differ based on the collision configuration. Time series modeling results showed that fatalities in angle collisions will increase in the next 10 years, and that they are affected by the expected increase in the percentage of LTVs in traffic. Forecast showed that the total number of annual deaths is expected to reach 6300 deaths by the year 2010 (an increase of 12% over 2000). Analysis into the configuration of the collision indicated the seriousness of angle collisions involving an LTV striking a common passenger car (LTV-car). A time series model illustrated the significance of time lag and percent of LTVs in traffic on the increase of this type of fatal collisions. Forecasts from the time series model indicated a 32% increase in deaths due to this type of collisions in the next 10 years.

Accidents, Traffic↗

Traffic fatalities, Peltzman's model, and directed graphs.

We show how statistical methods based on directed graphs may be useful in modeling traffic fatalities by comparing models specified using directed graphs to a model originally developed by Peltzman. The comparison uses Peltzman's original data, as well as up-dated data (and coefficients) through 1993. Out-of-sample forecasts of traffic fatalities from Peltzman's model are compared with those from a model constructed using directed graphs over data for the more recent period. The directed graphs model outperforms Peltzman's model in root mean squared forecast error.

Accidents, Traffic↗

Taking advice, using information and knowing what you are doing.

Subjective descriptions of judgment policies have been found to be imperfect. This could be because subjective weights are obtained on just a single occasion after all judgments have been completed. It could also be because people have tended to state their perception of an ideal way of responding rather than their perception of how they actually responded. Finally, it could be because they experience difficulty in relating variation in stimulus dimensions to variation in quite different response dimensions. In our task, people made sales forecasts on the basis of four pieces of information. They also stated the weight they placed on each one and the weight they should have placed on it. The means of weights stated on each trial were more appropriate than those stated at the end of all trials. Stated actual weights were very similar to stated ideal weights. Weights were more appropriate when forecasts and cues varied along the same dimension than when they did not. Thus, our results are consistent with the view that all three factors affect people's ability to provide subjective descriptions of their judgment policies.

Adult↗