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PubMed2002

The challenge of predicting flash floods from thunderstorm rainfall.

A major characteristic of the hydrometeorology of semi-arid regions is the occurrence of intense thunderstorms that develop very rapidly and cause severe flooding. In summer, monsoon air mass is often of subtropical origin and is characterized by convective instability. The existing observational network has major deficiencies for those regions in providing information that is important to run-off generation. Further, because of the complex interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere, mesoscale atmospheric models are currently able to reproduce only general features of the initiation and development of convective systems. In our research, several interrelated components including the use of satellite data to monitor precipitation, data assimilation of a mesoscale regional atmospheric model, modification of the land component of the mesoscale model to better represent the semi-arid region surface processes that control run-off generation, and the use of ensemble forecasting techniques to improve forecasts of precipitation and run-off potential are investigated. This presentation discusses our ongoing research in this area; preliminary results including an investigation related to the unprecedented flash floods that occurred across the Las Vegas valley (Nevada, USA) in July of 1999 are discussed.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2005

Multi-agent modelling of climate outlooks and food security on a community garden scheme in Limpopo, South Africa.

Seasonal climate outlooks provide one tool to help decision-makers allocate resources in anticipation of poor, fair or good seasons. The aim of the 'Climate Outlooks and Agent-Based Simulation of Adaptation in South Africa' project has been to investigate whether individuals, who adapt gradually to annual climate variability, are better equipped to respond to longer-term climate variability and change in a sustainable manner. Seasonal climate outlooks provide information on expected annual rainfall and thus can be used to adjust seasonal agricultural strategies to respond to expected climate conditions. A case study of smallholder farmers in a village in Vhembe district, Limpopo Province, South Africa has been used to examine how such climate outlooks might influence agricultural strategies and how this climate information can be improved to be more useful to farmers. Empirical field data has been collected using surveys, participatory approaches and computer-based knowledge elicitation tools to investigate the drivers of decision-making with a focus on the role of climate, market and livelihood needs. This data is used in an agent-based social simulation which incorporates household agents with varying adaptation options which result in differing impacts on crop yields and thus food security, as a result of using or ignoring the seasonal outlook. Key variables are the skill of the forecast, the social communication of the forecast and the range of available household and community-based risk coping strategies. This research provides a novel approach for exploring adaptation within the context of climate change.

Agriculture↗

PubMed2004

Managing finances for a fulfilled Canadian retirement.

Finances play an important, if not pivotal, role in a healthy retirement. Managing money, knowing where one stands financially, forecasting needs for the lifestyle of choice, are all necessary activities to leading a fulfilling happy retirement. Until the basic needs of life are met, the greater joys of socializing, esteem, and fulfillment cannot be achieved. In Canada there are pensions for seniors available according to certain requirements. Knowledge of these pensions is essential before retiring. Knowing how to evaluate one's worth and forecast future needs is necessary to achieve the anticipated retirement so frequently cherished. By planning early and managing decisions and actions effectively, an individual can ensure the best possible retirement.

Aged↗

PubMed2000

Solar Particle Events from a risk management perspective.

Solar Particle Events pose a health risk to astronauts in space. Today, SPE forecasts are inadequate to provide advance warning with sufficient credibility to lead operators to initiate protective measures. However, research on SPEs and Coronal Mass Ejections suggests that the space weather community is on the verge of substantial improvements in understanding solar energetic particle acceleration and propagation. This paper describes the impact of SPEs, reviews the physics of SPEs, discusses current SPE forecast tools, and describes an approach to provide the comprehensive space weather data necessary to implement physics-based SPE risk management.

Algorithms↗

PubMed1995

The 1994 Australian Radiology Workforce Committee Report.

The task assigned to the College Workforce Subcommittee by the RACR Federal Council is to define current radiologist and trainee numbers, analyse professional demographics, and attempt to forecast radiologist numbers and the medical demand for radiological services. The period of this forecast is for 7 years leading up to 2001. This time course has been chosen on the basis of a 2 year period before any recommendation by Council could be instituted by the Educational Board and 5 years before any change in trainee numbers would be reflected in radiologist numbers. By necessity, assumptions have been made in formulating the final calculations and recommendations; the most difficult being the designation of an 'optimum' number of radiologists for our population. This assignment is an ongoing review and prediction process. The results and conclusions should be compared and contrasted to previous reports, in particular the 1992 Manpower Study.

Australia↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Predictability of surface mine spoil hydrologic properties in the Appalachian Plateau.

Prevention of acid mine drainage at surface coal mines in the Appalachian region relies to an extent on minimizing ground water contact with acid-forming materials, and maximizing ground water contact with alkalinity-yielding materials. Acid-forming materials are often selectively handled to minimize or prevent contact with ground water. Controlling ground water contact with acidic or alkaline materials depends on forecasting the level and range of fluctuation of the postmining water table within the mine backfill. Physical measurements and aquifer testing of more than 120 wells from 18 reclaimed mines in Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia have led to improved forecasting of the postmining ground water system. Factors that influence the ground water regime include spoil lithology and particle size, age of reclamation, spoil thickness, distance from the final highwall, and pit floor dip angle and direction. Spoil hydraulic conductivity (K) exhibits a 95% confidence interval range of six orders of magnitude about a mean K of 1.7 x 10(-5) m/sec. Spoil aquifer saturated thickness is related to the overall thickness of the spoil, the lithology of the spoil, dip of the pit floor, and distance to the highwall. Saturated spoil thickness has a 95% confidence interval of 2.2 to 3.6 m about the mean of 2.9 m. The predicted saturated zone averages 19% of the total spoil thickness.

Appalachian Region↗

PubMed1995

Dynamical recurrent neural networks--towards environmental time series prediction.

Dynamical Recurrent Neural Networks (DRNN) (Aussem 1995a) are a class of fully recurrent networks obtained by modeling synapses as autoregressive filters. By virtue of their internal dynamic, these networks approximate the underlying law governing the time series by a system of nonlinear difference equations of internal variables. They therefore provide history-sensitive forecasts without having to be explicitly fed with external memory. The model is trained by a local and recursive error propagation algorithm called temporal-recurrent-backpropagation. The efficiency of the procedure benefits from the exponential decay of the gradient terms backpropagated through the adjoint network. We assess the predictive ability of the DRNN model with meterological and astronomical time series recorded around the candidate observation sites for the future VLT telescope. The hope is that reliable environmental forecasts provided with the model will allow the modern telescopes to be preset, a few hours in advance, in the most suited instrumental mode. In this perspective, the model is first appraised on precipitation measurements with traditional nonlinear AR and ARMA techniques using feedforward networks. Then we tackle a complex problem, namely the prediction of astronomical seeing, known to be a very erratic time series. A fuzzy coding approach is used to reduce the complexity of the underlying laws governing the seeing. Then, a fuzzy correspondence analysis is carried out to explore the internal relationships in the data. Based on a carefully selected set of meteorological variables at the same time-point, a nonlinear multiple regression, termed nowcasting (Murtagh et al. 1993, 1995), is carried out on the fuzzily coded seeing records. The DRNN is shown to outperform the fuzzy k-nearest neighbors method.

Environmental Monitoring↗

PubMed1988

Multifactor prediction of hospital service workload.

Prediction of workload for hospital departments is a forecasting problem. Most forecasting techniques use time series methods. However, the unpredictability of hospital utilization which occurs because of environmental turbulence requires that predictions be based on strategic plans. Regression models developed from cross-sectional data can provide a methodology for linking predictions of service workload to strategic plans. The methodology is illustrated and evaluated in a pilot study, which produced models predicting measures of workload such as laboratory tests (R2 = .85), doses of medication given to inpatients (R2 = .43), outpatient prescriptions (R2 = .79), and x-rays (R2 = .86).

Forecasting↗

PubMed2000

Too few dentists? Workforce planning 1996-2036.

The development and use of forecasting models can stimulate the debate on workforce planning for dentists by improving the quality of the data available, by providing a framework within which the debate can be conducted and by providing a means whereby the effects of different trends and policy options can be measured in a consistent way. The number of dentists on the Dentists Register aged under 60 years may well fall over the 40 years between 1996-2036, while the proportion of female dentists is likely to grow from under 30% to almost 50%. If the present gender differences in dentists' output persist, the effective 'whole-time equivalent' (WTE) size of the dentist workforce could fall by 15%. While future patterns of disease and the efficacy of future treatments are difficult to predict, the demand for dentistry is very likely to increase, given the forecast ageing of the UK population. The number of people aged 65-74 years could increase by 50% to eight million and those over 75 years by 70% towards seven million. Further, almost of all of this greatly increased older population will have retained some of their own teeth. The edentulous adult population was 37% in 1968 and might fall to less than 5% by 2036. These trends taken together could increase the number of courses of treatment per WTE dentist by as much as 40% over these 40 years. Such modelling can help to reduce the degree of uncertainty in future workforce planning.

Adult↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Better late than never: workforce supply implications of later entry into nursing.

Although the number of people entering nursing in their early to mid-twenties remains at its lowest point in forty years, large numbers of people are entering the profession in their late twenties and early thirties. And although it remains unclear why people are becoming nurses later, there is evidence that nursing is attracting interest from different segments of the potential workforce than it was in the 1970s and 1980s. We analyze these trends using data through 2005 and a revised forecast model that still predicts a nurse shortage by 2020, but a smaller one than previously forecast.

Adult↗

PubMed1994

Estimating clinical morbidity due to ischemic heart disease and congestive heart failure: the future rise of heart failure.

OBJECTIVES: Many developed countries have seen declining mortality rates for heart disease, together with an alleged decline in incidence and a seemingly paradoxical increase in health care demands. This paper presents a model for forecasting the plausible evolution of heart disease morbidity. METHODS: The simulation model combines data from different sources. It generates acute coronary event and mortality rates from published data on incidences, recurrences, and lethalities of different heart disease conditions and interventions. Forecasts are based on plausible scenarios for declining incidence and increasing survival. RESULTS: Mortality is postponed more than incidence. Prevalence rates of morbidity will decrease among the young and middle-aged but increase among the elderly. As the milder disease states act as risk factors for the more severe states, effects will culminate in the most severe disease states with a disproportionate increase in older people. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing health care needs in the face of declining mortality rates are no contradiction, but reflect a tradeoff of mortality for morbidity. The aging of the population will accentuate this morbidity increase.

Female↗

PubMed1995

Infant mortality in the United States: trends, differentials, and projections, 1950 through 2010.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined long-term trends and differences in infant mortality in the United States from 1950 through 1991 according to race and ethnicity, education, family income, and cause of death. Forecasts are made through the year 2010. METHODS: Log-linear regression models were applied to data from the National Vital Statistics System, National Linked Birth and Infant Death files, the National Maternal and Infant Health Survey, the National Natality Survey, and the National Infant Mortality Survey to model and forecast infant mortality. RESULTS: Dramatic declines in the US infant mortality rate have occurred in the past 4 decades, largely as a result of declines in mortality from pneumonia and influenza, respiratory distress syndrome, prematurity and low birthweight, congenital anomalies, and accidents. Despite the overall reductions, however, substantial racial/ethnic, educational, and income differences in infant mortality still exist. CONCLUSIONS: The long-term downward trend in US infant mortality has not benefited Blacks and Whites equally. The Black/White disparity in infant mortality has not only persisted but increased over time and is not expected to diminish in the near future. Educational inequalities have also widened, and racial disparities have generally increased across all educational levels.

Adult↗

PubMed1992

Challenging official health cost estimates: an alternative view that incorporates the behavioural and economic effects of policy changes.

Cost estimates of health care policy changes are extremely important. Historically, however, the US government has done a poor job in projecting the actual cost of new health care programmes. These projections have been inaccurate primarily because government forecasters use 'static' methods that fail to incorporate the change in people's behaviour as a direct result of a new policy. In contrast, 'dynamic' forecasts incorporate the behavioural effects of policy changes on individuals and the economy. Static and dynamic estimates can lead to different results for 4 areas of US health policy: (a) the Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act; (b) mandated health benefits; (c) health insurance tax subsidies; and (d) national health insurance. Improving health care policy requires the adoption of dynamic estimation practices, periodic appraisals evaluating the accuracy of official estimates in relation to actual experience, and clear presentation of proposed policy changes and estimates to policymakers and the general public.

Financing, Government↗

PubMed2006

Academic food-supply veterinarians: future demand and likely shortages.

The future demand for and potential shortages of food-supply veterinarians have been the subject of much concern. Using the Delphi forecasting method in a three-phase Web-based survey process, a panel of experts identified the trends and issues shaping the demand for and supply of academic food-animal veterinarians, then forecasted the likely future demand and shortages of food-supply veterinarians employed in academic institutions in the United States and Canada through 2016. The results indicate that there will be increasing future demand and persistent shortages of academic food-supply veterinarians unless current trends are countered with targeted, strategic action. The Delphi panel also evaluated the effectiveness of several strategies for reversing current trends and increasing the number of food-supply veterinarians entering into academic careers. Academic food-supply veterinarians are a key link in the system that produces food-supply veterinarians for all sectors (private practice, government service, etc.); shortages in the academic sector will amplify shortages wherever food-supply veterinarians are needed. Even fairly small shortages have significant public-health, food-safety, animal-welfare, and bio-security implications. Recent events demonstrate that in an increasingly interconnected global economic food supply system, national economies and public health are at risk unless an adequate supply of appropriately trained food-supply veterinarians is available to counter a wide variety of threats ranging from animal and zoonotic diseases to bioterrorism.

Animals↗

PubMed2002

Estimation of cancer deaths in Korea for the upcoming years.

Since the cancer has been the leading cause of deaths in Korea, estimation of the cancer deaths for the upcoming years in the population using the vital statistics is considered to be necessary. The aim of this study was to estimate the number and trends of cancer deaths in Korea. The expected numbers of cancer deaths were calculated by a time series model fitting the actual numbers of cancer deaths for each of the years 1983 through 2000 reported by Korea National Statistical Office. The options selected for the time series model included a quadratic time trend, which incorporated long-term information into the model and an autoregressive component which incorporated information about short-term fluctuations. The forecasting numbers of cancer deaths and their 95% confidence intervals were estimated for both genders and primary sites. The forecasting number of deaths from all cancers is increasing so that the cumulative number of expected cancer deaths between 2001 and 2005 would be about 309 thousand persons. Cancers of the lung, stomach, liver, and colorectum continue to be the most common causes of cancer deaths. While the numbers of expected cancer deaths in the stomach and liver show a decreasing trend, the cancer in the lung, colorectum, pancreas, breast, and oral cavity have an increasing trend. These observations indicate that cancer deaths in the near future would be increasing through the early 2000s, and there should be some urgent government's policy on the cancer management.

Colorectal Neoplasms↗

PubMed2005

[Models for calculating the cost of operational expenditure for a health centre in Senegal].

The transformation of a health post into a health centre generates new services which mobilise different resources. The objective of this work is to propose a budgetary forecasting model for this specific type of case, one which is recurrent although seldom documented. As a preliminary step, the quarterly operational costs were determined, and the "complete costs method" (or the homogeneous sections method) was utilised for this purpose. In the second phase, the "pre-established costs method" was used to set the budget forecasts. The amount to be recovered by the health committee for a three month period of operation is estimated at 1,574,967 F CFA (equivalent to approximately 2,400 Euros), representing 42% of the total cost. The states assures the contribution of public funds to cover 54.2% of the cost, and the commune of Kanel furnishes 3.8% of the total cost, however only in the form of in-kind contributions or other material resources. The overall estimated budget for the year 2004 is estimated at 14,835,425 F CFA (about 22,615 Euros) of which 57.6% is expected to be received from the state.

Costs and Cost Analysis↗

PubMed2004

Weighing the evidence for expanding physician supply.

For 2 decades, health planners have forecasted impending physician surpluses, and policy decisions related to medical schools and residency programs have been based on such expectations. However, these much-heralded surpluses never materialized, and a growing body of data and opinion now point in the other direction. The question at the forefront is whether the United States is instead headed for a physician shortage. What is the evidence? This paper reviews the trends that link economic growth to health care spending and to the demand for physicians. It assesses the current environment by examining trends in the characteristics of clinical practice, signals from the medical market, and recent experiences of physician shortages in other English-speaking countries; it also discusses why past forecasting approaches may have failed. Taken together, this body of information indicates that physician shortages are emerging and that they will probably worsen over the next 2 decades. By 2020 or 2025, the deficit could be as great as 200,000 physicians--20% of the needed workforce. If remedies are to be found, the nature of the problem must be appreciated, and a consensus to solve it must be reached.

Allied Health Personnel↗

PubMed1979

National hospital input price index.

The national community hospital input price index presented here isolates the effects of prices of goods and services required to produce hospital care and measures the average percent change in prices for a fixed market basket of hospital inputs. Using the methodology described in this article, weights for various expenditure categories were estimated and proxy price variables associated with each were selected. The index is calculated for the historical period 1970 through 1978 and forecast for 1979 through 1981. During the historical period, the input price index increased an average of 8.0 percent a year, compared with an average rate of increase of 6.6 percent for overall consumer prices. For the period 1979 through 1981, the average annual increase is forecast at between 8.5 and 9.0 per cent. Using the index to deflate growth in expenses, the level of real growth in expenditures per inpatient day (net service intensity growth) averaged 4.5 percent per year with considerable annual variation related to government and hospital industry policies.

Accounts Payable and Receivable↗