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PubMed1999

[The prediction of the magnitude and structure of the health losses in the catastrophic flooding of the area of a large city].

Using the developed methodological approaches a multivariant forecast has been worked out of a possible magnitude and structure of sanitary losses in a disastrous flood in the territory of a large city. It is shown that forecast-related materials can become the basis on which preparation might be initiated of force and means of the health system towards work under such conditions, with its functioning being ensured under swiftly changing conditions of an emergency situation.

Cities↗

PubMed2000

[Population projections: goals, methods, hypotheses].

Population projections generally use the component method which consists in adapting sample size by age and sex from mortality, fertility and migration hypotheses. This exercise is not always aimed a providing projection data, but may also serve to analyze factors changing in the population. Comparatively long-term demographic forecasts, particularly for mortality, can be made due to the major inertia of demographic phenomena. However, the quality of such predictions depends on the quality of knowledge of past evolution in the demographic factors and on the capacity to forecast their future evolution.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2000

[An analysis on need and demand for dental service in urban residents of Beijing].

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the needs and demands for dental services in urban residents of Beijing, and to forecast developmental trends of dental demand in the future. METHODS: There were 1,517 subjects examined by a stratified, clustering, random sampling, and a questionnaire survey were completed. RESULTS: The prevalence of oral diseases was 97.6%, but only 31.5% of subjects visited the dentist in a year, the total number of residents who had need of dental care were 4,412,010 more than that of demand level. Potential demand was mainly due to the negative awareness of people and problem from service provider. It was predicted that, if the potential demand caused by awareness and service provider were satisfied, the demand for dental care would increase by 69.4% and 13.2%, respectively. By the year of 2005, the demand will increase by 1.14%, and the value will be 3.76% in 2010. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial discrepancy is found between oral disease presence and demand for dental service. The levels of demand are also irrational. The large potential demand is caused by both receiver and provider's factors. At last, the future demand for dental care is forecasted under three hypothesis.

China↗

PubMed2002

A letter to the chief executive.

Beyond the recent accounting scandals, something is wrong with the way most companies are managed today. That's the message of this fictional letter from a board member to a CEO, written by Joseph Fuller, CEO of strategy consulting firm the Monitor Group. The letter highlights the challenges and complexities of running a business in today's uncertain environment. And while it avoids the facile bashing of U.S. executives so common these days, the missive nonetheless casts a harsh light on the flaws that have recently been exposed in the American management model. The letter addresses a single CEO and company, yet it is intended to speak to executives and boards everywhere: "It wasn't the recession that caused us to make three acquisitions in two years at very, very high prices; the need to fuel [unreasonable] growth did. Nor was it the recession that caused us to expand our capacity in anticipation of gaining market share; rather, it was our own overly optimistic sales forecasts that led us to that decision. Where did those forecasts originate? From line managers trying to fulfill profit goals that we created after meeting with the analysts. "The root cause of many of the problems that became apparent in the last 24 months lies not with the economy, not with September 11, and not with the dot-com bubble. Rather, it lies with that willingness to be led by outside forces-indeed, our own lack of conviction about setting a course." Restoring sound, strategic decision making--thinking that looks beyond tomorrow's analyst reports--will go a long way toward keeping those outside forces at bay, according to Fuller.

Administrative Personnel↗

PubMed2003

[Creation and validation of the SPRING Internet site].

The Internet SPRING site has been created by five pollen european nets in relation with the spanish telephony firm: SADIEL. The aim of this project is to propose different services for persons concerned by pollen allergy (patients, scientists, pharmaceutical firms...) and to provide forecasts across Europe. The project validation was done during four months, comparing forecasts, announced on the site, with the real data obtained weekly by the analysts. Each country was divided in several zones and each zone controlled by three or four analysis sites. For France, six zones were identified and controlled. Others european nets want to joint now the SPRING project and everybody concerned by pollens could be informed daily (by phone or wap) of the pollen concentrations and the allergenic risk in each part of Europe.

Cell Phone↗

PubMed2004

Trends in laryngeal cancer incidence in Lithuania: a future perspective.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the present study was to assess the incidence of larynx cancer in Lithuania in the years 1978-2001 and to outline possible future trends. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The number of new laryngeal cancer cases in 1978-2001 was obtained from the Lithuanian Cancer Registry. The Lithuanian Department of Statistics provided data on the population being at the same age in the same years. The data were adjusted for age, using the direct method in accordance with the European standard; a linear regression analysis of trends in the larynx cancer incidence was performed. RESULTS: After standardization of data for the period of 1978-2001, an upward trend was registered for both men and women: in 1978 the incidence was 10.73 for men and 0.26 for women per 100000 population, in 2001 the corresponding data were 11.6 and 0.7. Throughout the study period the incidence was higher in men than in women and the mean age of male and female larynx cancer patients was increasing: mean age for men was annually increasing by 0.1566 years and for women by 0.0602 years. The forecast for men in 2006 is 13.88 and for women 0.54 cases per 100000 population. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in larynx cancer incidence is growing more rapidly among women than among men, and the mean age of the patients is also increasing. The forecast is that in 2006 the incidence rate will be increasing, and both men and women will get ill at an older age.

Adolescent↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Turning great strategy into great performance.

Despite the enormous time and energy that goes into strategy development, many companies have little to show for their efforts. Indeed, research by the consultancy Marakon Associates suggests that companies on average deliver only 63% of the financial performance their strategies promise. In this article, Michael Mankins and Richard Steele of Marakon present the findings of this research. They draw on their experience with high-performing companies like Barclays, Cisco, Dow Chemical, 3M, and Roche to establish some basic rules for setting and delivering strategy: Keep it simple, make it concrete. Avoid long, drawn-out descriptions of lofty goals and instead stick to clear language describing what your company will and won't do. Debate assumptions, not forecasts. Create cross-functional teams drawn from strategy, marketing, and finance to ensure the assumptions underlying your long-term plans reflect both the real economics of your company's markets and its actual performance relative to competitors. Use a rigorous analytic framework. Ensure that the dialogue between the corporate center and the business units about market trends and assumptions is conducted within a rigorous framework, such as that of "profit pools". Discuss resource deployments early. Create more realistic forecasts and more executable plans by discussing up front the level and timing of critical deployments. Clearly identify priorities. Prioritize tactics so that employees have a clear sense of where to direct their efforts. Continuously monitor performance. Track resource deployment and results against plan, using continuous feedback to reset assumptions and reallocate resources. Reward and develop execution capabilities. Motivate and develop staff. Following these rules strictly can help narrow the strategy-to-performance gap.

Benchmarking↗

PubMed2005

Model based hydropower gate operation for mitigation of CSO impacts by means of river base flow increase.

In river stretches being subjected to flow regulation, usually for the purpose of energy production (e.g. Hydropower) or flood protection (river barrage), a special measure can be taken against the effect of combined sewer overflows (CSOs). The basic idea is the temporal increase of the river base flow (during storm weather) as an in-stream measure for mitigation of CSO spilling. The focus is the mitigation of the negative effect of acute pollution of substances. The measure developed can be seen as an application of the classic real time control (RTC) concept onto the river system. Upstream gate operation is to be based on real time monitoring and forecasting of precipitation. The main objective is the development of a model based predictive control system for the gate operation, by modelling of the overall wastewater system (incl. the receiving water). The main emphasis is put on the operational strategy and the appropriate short-term forecast of spilling events. The potential of the measure is tested for the application of the operational strategy and its ecological and economic feasibility. The implementation of such an in-stream measure into the hydropower's operational scheme is unique. Advantages are (a) the additional in-stream dilution of acute pollutants entering the receiving water and (b) the resulting minimization of the required CSO storage volume.

Conservation of Natural Resources↗

PubMedDate not supplied

The Barcelona International Symposium (21-23 April 2005). Synthesis reports.

The Symposium was held in Barcelona, Spain, with the Institut d'Estudis de la Salut acting as host. It gathered 51 participants working in 34 institutions based in 18 countries. The main objective of the Symposium was to create an opportunity for assessing the past trends and forecasting the future developments of health workforce within the various national health systems. The Symposium was composed of 5 sessions devoted to presentations of the papers freely contributed by the participants and 5 discussion sessions devoted to the following themes : (i) Supply of and demand for health workforce, (ii) Future trends and forecasting methods ; (iii) Strategies for managing and planning health workforce ; (iv) Health workforce in underserved areas; (v) International migration of health workers. Each discussion session was conducted by a discussion leader whose the synthesis report is displayed here below.

Adult↗

PubMedDate not supplied

A note regarding the projections of some major health indicators.

There are various methods to get some projections of health indicators that do not always produce satisfactory results. Our aim is to establish the rules for obtaining reliable projections, using simple models. In the procedure proposed here, there is no need, as in many other techniques, to directly connect the levels of the indicator under consideration with other social, behavioral, economic, medical, and environmental determinants, to get future projections. For this purpose, we will consider an indicator that seems to have a trajectory that is rather difficult to simulate. This indicator refers to the causes of mortality from cerebrovascular diseases (deaths per 100,000 population) in Greece and Portugal. Both series are not stationary, but they are integrated in the sense that they produce a stationary series by differencing them. The application of the techniques proposed here is based on the identification of the variables used, that is, whether they are I(1) (integrated of order 1), or I(0) (ie, stationary), to get acceptable projections using simple models, which can be easily estimated. It is also necessary to perform ex post forecasting tests, to select the most suitable model. Detailed results are graphically presented, to better anticipate the forecasting power of the models used, in combination with the status of each series considered, that is, whether it is I(1) or I(0).

Aged↗

PubMed2006

Supply, demand, and equilibrium in the market for CRNAs.

This study determined the current trends in supply, demand, and equilibrium (ie, the level of employment where supply equals demand) in the market for Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists (CRNAs). It also forecasts future needs for CRNAs given different possible scenarios. The impact of the current availability of CRNAs, projected retirements, and changes in the demand for surgeries are considered in relation to CRNAs needed for the future. The study used data from many sources to estimate models associated with the supply and demand for CRNAs and the relationship to relevant community and policy characteristics such as per capita income of the community and managed care. These models were used to forecast changes in surgeries and in the supply of CRNAs in the future. The supply of CRNAs has increased in recent years, stimulated by shortages of CRNAs and subsequent increases in the number of CRNAs trained. However, the increases have not offset the number of retiring CRNAs to maintain a constant age in the CRNA population. The average age will continue to increase for CRNAs in the near future despite increases in CRNAs trained. The supply of CRNAs in relation to surgeries will increase in the near future.

Adult↗

PubMed1992

Pharmaceutical prices continue to drive up supply costs.

The 1992 purchasing outlook from the Joint Purchasing Corp. (JPC), New York City, forecasts a difficult winter followed by a mild economic recovery beginning in the spring or early summer. Pharmaceuticals, however, are forecast to undergo significant price increases, due in part to hospital pharmaceutical price hikes associated with the ramifications of the 1990 Medicaid drug rebate legislation passed by Congress.

Costs and Cost Analysis↗

PubMed1990

Short-term predictions of the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus infection among the black population in South Africa.

After a brief methodological review of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome/human immunodeficiency virus (AIDS/HIV) forecasting methods, some of these methods were applied to the South African situation and short-term predictions of the prevalence of HIV infection among the black population in South Africa were obtained. At present, the prevalence of HIV infection increases exponentially, with a doubling time of 8,5 months (95% confidence interval 7,6-9,6 months). By the end of 1989 the number of HIV-infected black South Africans aged 15-49 years was estimated to be between 45,000 and 63,000, and it is predicted that these numbers will rise to between 119,000 and 168,000 by the end of 1990, and to between 317,000 and 446,000 by the end of 1991. Because of the lack of basic data, these forecasts are tentative, but they nevertheless indicate the great seriousness of the HIV epidemic in South Africa.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Predicting postoperative arterial pressure in renovascular hypertensive patients.

The authors have developed a method for forecasting the degree of the hypotensive effect of surgery for renovascular hypertension. Fifteen digital parameters were determined in 36 patients with unilateral lesions of the renal arteries by the following methods of preoperative examination: the establishment of the duration of hypertension, radio-isotope renography, determination of renin activity in the peripheral and renovascular (venous) blood, rheonephrography. The obtained set of characteristics was used for the prediction of postoperative arterial pressure values by means of one of the methods of mathematical statistics, the regression analysis in an "SM-4" electronic computer according to a specially created multivariate regression program in the "Fortran-4" language. The high accuracy of predicting the arterial pressure by this method was confirmed by clinical trials. Forecasting postoperative arterial pressure by this method allows us to substantiate with a high degree of fidelity the advisability of reconstructive surgery and opens up realistic prospects for improving its results.

Adult↗

PubMed1987

The linkage of health status changes and disability.

Forecasting health and functional status changes in elderly populations is a difficult task because forecasting must describe the linkage of chronic morbidity, and its progression, with different levels and types of disability. In this paper we present a model which links morbidity and disability and, with the use of multiple survey and epidemiological data sources, provide estimates of the long-term reduction in chronic disability that would result from changing the prevalence of specific chronic diseases by the control of major risk factors. The results show that many of the diseases which are currently the principal target of primary prevention have more impact upon mortality, and overall life expectancy, than they do on the age at onset of chronic disability. Thus, in order to increase the average number of years that elderly persons can expect to live with less disability, or less severe forms of disability, new prevention strategies and techniques may have to be developed.

Adult↗

PubMed1986

Accounting for migration in cohort-component projections of state and local populations.

Migration is the most difficult component of state and local population growth to forecast accurately because it is more volatile than either births or deaths, and subject to much larger fluctuations within a short period of time. In addition, migration rates can be based on several different measures of migration and the base population. The choice of the appropriate base population has received little attention from demographic researchers, but can have a tremendous impact on population projections. In this article, I develop three different models for projecting migration, each using a different denominator for migration rates. Population projections for ten states are made, using identical data and cohort component techniques, except for the different formulations of migration rates. Differences among the three sets of projections are noted, and conclusions are drawn regarding their usefulness as forecasts of population growth.

Emigration and Immigration↗

PubMedDate not supplied

The impending Canadian prostate cancer epidemic.

PURPOSE: To model and forecast prostate cancer incidence and mortality in Canada to the year 2016. METHODS: Bivariate multiplicative models of prostate cancer incidence and mortality for Canadian men aged 45 years or older, linear in time and Weibull in age, were fitted using weighted non-linear regression. RESULTS: The number of incident cases of prostate cancer is forecast to increase from 11,355, observed in 1990, to 26,900 by the year 2010 and to 35,200 by the year 2016. The number of deaths are estimated to climb from 3,424, observed in 1991, to an estimated 6,300 by the year 2010, and to 7,800 by the year 2016. CONCLUSIONS: The dramatic increase in prostate cancer rates with age, coupled with the expected large increase in the elderly Canadian male population and steadily increasing prostate cancer incidence rates will produce very large increases in the number of men who will have prostate cancer over the next 20 years. This has important implications for health care delivery in the future.

Age Distribution↗

PubMed1995

Physician-workforce and educational planning in Canada: has the pendulum swung too far?

Since the early '80s, and especially since the publication in 1991 of Toward Integrated Medical Resource Policies for Canada (the Barer-Stoddart Report), received wisdom has been that there is an oversupply of physicians in Canada and that medical school enrollment should be cut. In a CMAJ article published July 1, 1994, that described a computer program to forecast the supply and demand of health care resources, Denton, Gafni and Spencer projected a substantial physician surplus in Ontario in the years 2000 and 2010, despite substantial cuts in Ontario medical school enrollment. The author questions the data used in the forecasts and reaches different conclusions. She advances an alternative hypothesis that current medical school admission levels are, in fact, too low.

Education, Medical↗