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Predicting ammonia losses following the application of livestock manure to land.
A series of experiments was conducted using small wind tunnels to assess the influence of a range of environmental, manure and management variables on ammonia emissions following application of different manure types to grassland and arable land. Wind speed and dry matter content (for cattle slurry in particular) were identified as the parameters with greatest influence on ammonia emissions from slurries. For solid manures, rainfall was identified as the parameter with most influence on ammonia emissions. A Michaelis-Menten function was used to describe emission rates following manure application. Linear regression was then used to develop statistical models relating the Michaelis-Menten function parameters to the experimental variables for each manure type/land use combination. The fitted models accounted for between 62% and 94% of the variation in the data. Validation of the models for cattle slurry to grassland and pig slurry to arable land against independent data sets obtained from experiments using the micrometeorological mass balance measurement technique showed that the models overestimated losses, which was most probably due to inherent differences between the wind tunnel and the micrometerological mass balance measurement techniques.
Developing indicators for European birds.
The global pledge to deliver 'a significant reduction in the current rate of biodiversity loss by 2010' is echoed in a number of regional and national level targets. There is broad consensus, however, that in the absence of conservation action, biodiversity will continue to be lost at a rate unprecedented in the recent era. Remarkably, we lack a basic system to measure progress towards these targets and, in particular, we lack standard measures of biodiversity and procedures to construct and assess summary statistics. Here, we develop a simple classification of biodiversity indicators to assist their development and clarify purpose. We use European birds, as example taxa, to show how robust indicators can be constructed and how they can be interpreted. We have developed statistical methods to calculate supranational, multi-species indices using population data from national annual breeding bird surveys in Europe. Skilled volunteers using standardized field methods undertake data collection where methods and survey designs differ slightly across countries. Survey plots tend to be widely distributed at a national level, covering many bird species and habitats with reasonable representation. National species' indices are calculated using log-linear regression, which allows for plot turnover. Supranational species' indices are constructed by combining the national species' indices weighted by national population sizes of each species. Supranational, multi-species indicators are calculated by averaging the resulting indices. We show that common farmland birds in Europe have declined steeply over the last two decades, whereas woodland birds have not. Evidence elsewhere shows that the main driver of farmland bird declines is increased agricultural intensification. We argue that the farmland bird indicator is a useful surrogate for trends in other elements of biodiversity in this habitat.