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Respiratory pandemic risk in the Anthropocene: A One Health framework and GISRS+ agenda.

Recent epidemics and pandemics caused by respiratory viruses, alongside the animal panzootic spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5Nx), have become a structural feature of the Anthropocene, yet responses remain largely reactive. This review integrates findings from WHO's Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS) and related surveillance data (2000-2024), epidemiological studies of influenza A virus, SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, and H5Nx, and One Health literature. We examine major groups of respiratory viruses and identify mismatches between risk and surveillance by focusing on spillover potential from animal hosts, human-to-human transmission and its controllability, and Anthropocene characteristics that increase epidemic risk. The analysis indicated that SARS-related coronaviruses and influenza A viruses, particularly H5Nx, are among the leading candidates based on currently available evidence because they have large reservoirs in animal hosts and spillover to humans is highly probable. The previous presymptomatic spread of SARS-CoV-2 and recent mammalian adaptation in H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b highlight limitations of the traditional symptom-based and pathogen-specific surveillance system. Spillover events tend to occur in tropical and subtropical regions in low- and middle-income countries, but most genomic surveillance is in high-income countries. We propose interventions that address the upstream, midstream, downstream processes of epidemics. Upstream interventions are primary prevention measures related to land use, livestock, wildlife, and urban environments; midstream interventions are GISRS+-based pathogen-agnostic genomic and metagenomic early warning systems triggered by One Health; and downstream interventions include vaccines, antivirals, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and engineering with equity-centred global governance and sustainable financing.

Anthropocene

Sedimentary Ancient DNA Tracks Multi-Kingdom Ecosystem Reorganizations Following Sequential Human Land Use at Crawford Lake.

Crawford Lake has an exceptional stratigraphic record that began recording biannual (varved) sedimentation in the lake basin ~750 years ago, preserving evidence of shifting cultural zones and agricultural practices, from Late Woodland Period Indigenous agriculturalists to the impacts of industrialization during the late 19th century. It was selected as the candidate site for the proposed 'Anthropocene' epoch in 2023-a proposal ultimately rejected in 2024-but the lake's significance extends beyond a formal stratigraphic boundary. Its sediments preserve a long record of human-ecosystem entanglement that captures the cumulative, reverberating nature of local human impacts and global change. While many proxies have been studied at the site, the lake's sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) record has yet to be investigated. Here, we report on sedaDNA preserved at Crawford Lake over the last ~1300 years. Sedentism and agriculture clearly impacted the entire lake ecosystem, with corresponding shifts observable in the sedaDNA of plants, animals, algae, fungi and bacteria. Canada goose (Branta canadensis) roosting on the lake-likely drawn by foraging opportunities in fields cleared for Three/Four Sisters agriculture and sedentism-contributed to repeated eutrophications and algal blooms that permanently shifted the lake's ecological structure. Subsequent impacts during the Euro-Canadian zone furthered anthropogenic succession, although local impacts have been minimal since closure of the sawmill in 1900 ce, allowing for sensitivity to global change. Beyond the molecular ecological history of the lake, we also evaluate the effectiveness of an Arctic/Subarctic bait-set for palaeoecological reconstructions of the Eastern Woodlands, and the preservation of lake sedaDNA.

Lakes

Genome sequence analysis provides evidence that a boreal crustacean colonised Svalbard well before the ongoing Atlantification of the Arctic.

The study of present-day species distributions often raises questions about historical demography. A particularly interesting phenomenon to put in historical context is contemporary human-induced atlantification and its role in reshaping Arctic ecosystems. Despite this, the colonisation history of the Arctic remains generally understudied. In this study, we investigated the demographic history of the northern acorn barnacle, Semibalanus balanoides, a typically boreal species on the Svalbard Archipelago. Our focus was to determine the source and timing of its colonisation of this Arctic archipelago. Using low-coverage whole-genome sequence data, we evaluated two competing hypotheses: whether S. balanoides populations colonised Svalbard through ancient natural processes before the Anthropocene, or if their appearance is more recent, either natural or a consequence of growing anthropogenic influences, such as increased connectivity and global warming. Our results suggest that this boreal species expanded into the Arctic during the later phase of the Holocene Thermal Optimum, well before human-induced climate change.

Animals

Temporal Genomics Reveal a Century of Genomic Diversity Shifts Across a Biodiversity Hotspot Avian Assemblage.

Biodiversity has experienced tremendous shifts in community, species, and genetic diversity during the Anthropocene. Understanding temporal diversity shifts is especially critical in biodiversity hotspots, i.e., regions that are exceptionally biodiverse and threatened. Here, we use museomics and temporal genomics approaches to quantify temporal shifts in genomic diversity in an assemblage of eight generalist highland bird species from the Ethiopian Highlands (part of the Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot). With genomic data from contemporary and historical samples, we demonstrate an assemblage-wide trend of increased genomic diversity through time, potentially due to improved habitat connectivity within highland regions. Genomic diversity shifts in these generalist species contrast with general trends of genomic diversity declines in specialist or imperiled species. In addition to genetic diversity shifts, we found an assemblage-wide trend of decreased realized mutational load, indicative of overall trends for potentially deleterious variation to be masked or selectively purged. Across this avian assemblage, we also show that shifts in population genomic structure are idiosyncratic, with species-specific trends. These results are in contrast with other charismatic and imperiled African taxa that have largely shown strong increases in population genetic structure over the recent past. This study highlights that not all taxa respond the same to environmental change, and generalists, in some cases, may even respond positively. Future comparative conservation genomics assessments on species groups or assemblages with varied natural history characteristics would help us better understand how diverse taxa respond to anthropogenic landscape changes.

Animals