Unveiling the BMI Risk Threshold for Osteoarthritis: Multi-Database Causal and Nonlinear Evidence.
OBJECTIVE: To characterize the nonlinear relationship between BMI and osteoarthritis (OA), and to identify BMI thresholds that inform precise prevention strategies. METHODS: This multi-database study integrated Global burden of disease 2021, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2007-2018, and Genome-Wide Association Studies. A generalized additive model was performed to visualize the BMI-OA relationship, adjusting for multiple confounders. We applied segmented logistic regression models to identify potential threshold effects and used Mendelian randomization to estimate the causal effects of BMI on OA subtypes. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized prevalence and years lived with disability rates for OA were highest in regions with high SDI. OA prevalence rose nonlinearly with BMI, with breakpoints at 24.00 and 41.58 kg/m2. Each unit increase in BMI was associated with higher odds of OA between 24.00 and 41.58 kg/m2 (OR = 1.022, 95% CI: 1.003-1.041) and above 41.58 kg/m2 (OR = 1.055, 95% CI: 1.022-1.090). Women and individuals aged ≥ 45 years exhibited a higher susceptibility to knee osteoarthritis. BMI was causally associated with knee osteoarthritis (OR = 1.63, 95% CI 1.50-1.77) and hip osteoarthritis (OR = 1.54, 95% CI 1.40-1.70). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that OA risk awareness and weight-management strategies should begin before BMI reaches the high range, particularly among individuals with BMI exceeding 24.00 kg/m2.