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Bayesian analysis of a dose-response experiment with serial sacrifices.

This paper presents analysis and comments which are believed to be appropriate for certain carcinogenesis studies where sacrifices are performed throughout the experiment. Estimates of the risk probability for each dose level and sacrifice time are found utilizing the sample likelihood as the posterior density. The dose-response relationship is investigated with these estimates as the response. In order to test if the dose is effective and to check the appropriateness of the time-to-incidence model a Bayesian multiple comparisons technique is introduced.

Animals↗

PubMed1977

Bayesian analysis of electrocardiographic exercise stress testing.

We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of exercise-induced ST-segment depression in detecting coronary-artery disease by applying the likelihood-ratio formulation of Bayes's theorem to stress-test data, which were partitioned into half-millimeter ranges of depression. The graphic relation between the predictive value of a given test result and the pretest risk of disease in the test subjects was obtained for each of these half-millimeter intervals. This method reveals that the predictive value of testing depends on the degree of ST-segment depression, and that the pretest risk of coronary-artery disease is an important determinant of the predictive value of any test result in the individual patient. These findings suggest that the use of the terms "positive" and "negative" are inappropriate to describe most stress-test results. Instead, the results should be interpreted in terms of a continuum of risk based on the extent of ST-segment depression.

Adult↗

PubMed1976

Application of step-wise discriminant analysis and Bayesian classification procedure in determining prognosis of acute myocardial infarction.

A retrospective study was carried out to assess the feasibility of computer-assisted prognostication by discriminant analysis and the Bayesian classification procedure based on clinical information collected on patients with acute myocardial infarction. The overall accuracy was 94.2% in predicting hospital death but the prediction of late death after discharge was less accurate. It was found that not all of the 44 variables used for analysis were necessary to reach the same level of predictive accuracy--16 to 20 variables would result in almost the identical prediction. The Bayesian classification procedure was applied to estimate probabilities of individual patients belonging to the different prognostic categories.

Bayes Theorem↗

PubMed2026

Genetic Susceptibility to Incisional Hernia Evaluation of Hernia Polygenic Risk Scores.

OBJECTIVES: Incisional hernia (IH) affects 13-30% of people after abdominal surgery, resulting in substantial morbidity and costs. While clinical risk factors have been studied extensively, genomic risk for IH is incompletely understood. We aimed to evaluate the impact of polygenic risk scores (PRS) on IH risk prediction. METHODS: We created and evaluated three PRS for abdominal hernia, ventral hernia and latent hernia susceptibility for prediction of IH in an institutional biobank. The primary outcome was defined as the diagnosis or repair of an IH based on ICD-9/10-CM/PCS and CPT codes. Clinical covariates included age, sex, body mass index (BMI), smoking status, index procedure type, and perioperative surgical site infection. A phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) was performed to assess clinical associations with increased PRS. We then tested the ability of the PRS to improve prediction for IH by modeling clinical covariates with and without PRS in patients who underwent abdominal surgery. Model performance was assessed using 10 iterations of 5-fold cross-validation to estimate Brier scores and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), which were compared using cross-model Bayesian analysis of variance. RESULTS: In 55,809 subjects, assessed PRS was significantly associated with incisional, umbilical, and ventral hernia on PheWAS, with 1.19 greater odds of developing IH per 1-SD increase in PRS (95% CI: 1.13-1.25, P < 0.001). Of 9,909 subjects who underwent qualifying abdominal surgery, 706 developed IH. In this cohort, the latent hernia susceptibility PRS was associated with a 16% increased hazard of developing IH per 1-SD increase (HR 1.16; 95% CI: 1.07-1.26; P < 0.001). Compared to a predictive model using clinical covariates (Brier score = 0.047, 95% CI: 0.046-0.048; AUROC = 0.660, 95% CI: 0.653-0.666), addition of the PRS showed similar Brier score and AUROC estimates (Brier score = 0.047, 95% CI: 0.046-0.048; AUROC: 0.667, 95% CI: 0.661-0.673) at five years. Cross-model Bayesian analysis demonstrated >99% probability of practical equivalence when trying to detect a difference of ≥ 0.02. CONCLUSION: All three PRS for hernia were independently associated with IH, suggesting that genomic factors contribute significantly to IH development. However, none of the three PRS meaningfully improved clinical IH risk prediction in patients who underwent abdominal surgery. This suggests that clinical comorbidities and surgical techniques may be equally as important as genomic architecture.

Bayesian analysis↗

PubMed1978

Effect of atypical antibiotic resistance on microorganism identification by pattern recognition.

We classified microorganisms from the clinical laboratory by using information provided by the Gram stain and antibiotic sensitivity profiles obtained with the Bauer-Kirby technique. Approximately 4,000 microorganisms, routinely identified and tested for antibiotic sensitivities in a large hospital microbiology laboratory, were used as a data set for several pattern recognition classification methods: K--nearest-neighbor analysis, statistical isolinear multicomponent analysis, Bayesian inference, and linear discriminant analysis. K--nearest-neighbor analysis yielded the highest prospective classification accuracy for gram-negative organisms, 90%. When those organisms displaying an atypical antibiotic resistance pattern were excluded from the data, the gram-negative classification accuracy improved to 95%. These results are inferior to currently accepted biochemical identification methods. Microorganisms with atypical antibiotic resistance patterns are likely to be misidentified and are common enough (17% of our isolates) to limit the feasibility of routine identification of microorganisms from their antibiotic sensitivities.

Anti-Bacterial Agents↗

PubMed2026

Genetic Diversity and Population Structure of Zambian Indigenous Cattle.

A study was conducted to determine the genetic diversity of Zambian indigenous cattle using microsatellites. In Zambia, cattle provide draft power, food, manure and generate income. DNA extraction followed the Qiagen protocol, and Arlequin V3.0 was used for data analysis. 72 unrelated animals from three regions, Eastern (Angoni), Southern (Tonga) and Western (Barotse), were sampled. 315 alleles observed were higher in TGLA 263 (106 bp) with 0.861, 0.824 and 0.753, BMS650 (160 bp) with 0.710 and SPS 115 (248 bp) with 0.581, 0.710 and 0.794 for Angoni, Tonga and Barotse, respectively. Effective allele frequency was 4.521 ± 0.351, 4.246 ± 0.299 and 3.888 ± 0.289 for Angoni, Tonga and Barotse, respectively. Global deficit of heterozygotes across populations (Fit) amounted to 4.2%. Overall mean deficit of heterozygotes (Fis = 1%), genetic differentiation among breeds (Fst = 3.2%),, and genetic flow between populations (Nm = 11.3) ranged from RM 067 (40.564) to BLI (3.016). Analysis of molecular variance revealed 2.7% genetic variation among populations and 97.3% within the cattle population, with a mean genetic diversity of 0.753. Structure analysis (PCoA) demonstrated the presence of two subpopulations in which all three populations are represented and these two groups showed evidence of substructuring. In the Bayesian analysis, Tonga and Barotse populations were clustered together, while the Angoni were separated from the rest of the populations in K = 2. There was no evidence of panmixia and linkage equilibrium; the VD (9.153) value is greater than L (5.929), indicating that the population was in equilibrium. This study presents a comprehensive genetic characterisation of indigenous cattle in Zambia, which is important for further studies.

Animals↗

PubMed2025

Cross-Phenotype Genome-Wide Association Study on the Shared Genetic Susceptibility to Systemic Sclerosis and Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

OBJECTIVE: An increased risk of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has been reported in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). Our study aims to investigate the shared genetic susceptibility between the two disorders and to define candidate causal genes using cross-phenotype genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis. METHODS: We performed cross-phenotype GWAS meta-analysis and Bayesian colocalization analysis for patients with SSc and patients with PBC. We performed both genome-wide and locus-based analysis, including tissue and pathway enrichment analyses, fine-mapping, Bayesian colocalization analyses with expression quantitative trait loci and protein quantitative trait loci (pQTL) datasets, and phenome-wide association studies. Finally, we used an integrative approach to prioritize candidate causal genes from the novel loci. RESULTS: We detected a strong genetic correlation between SSc and PBC (global genetic correlation = 0.84, P = 1.7 × 10-6). In the cross-phenotype GWAS meta-analysis, we identified 44 nonhuman leukocyte antigens loci that reached genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8). Evidence of shared causal variants between patients with SSc and patients with PBC was found for nine loci, five of which were novel. Integrating multiple sources of evidence, we prioritized CD40, ERAP1, PLD4, SPPL3, and CCDC113 as novel candidate causal genes. The CD40 risk locus colocalized with trans-pQTLs of multiple plasma proteins involved in B cell function. CONCLUSION: Our study supports a strong shared genetic susceptibility between SSc and PBC. Using cross-phenotype analyses, we have prioritized several novel candidate causal genes and pathways for these disorders.

Humans↗

PubMed1978

General problems in medical decision making with comments on ROC analysis.

Medical decision-making studies continue to focus on two questions: How do physicians make decisions? How should physicians make decisions? Researchers pursuing the first question emphasize human cognitive processes and the programming of symbol systems to model observed human behavior. Those researchers concentrating on the second question assume that there is a standard of performance against which the physician's decisions can be judged, and to help the physician improve his performance, an array of tools is proposed. These tools include decision trees, Bayesian analysis, decision matrices, receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis, and cost-benefit considerations including utility measures. Medical decision-making questions must be answered in an ethical context where ethics and decision analysis are interviewed.

Bayes Theorem↗

PubMed1977

Alpha1-fetoprotein in the diagnosis of hepatoma: statistical and cost benefit aspects.

A rational comparison of different serum concentrations of alpha1-fetoprotein (S-AFP) in the diagnosis of hepatoma must be made. We took data on the sensitivity and specificity of different diagnostic S-AFP concentrations from the literature and evaluated them statistically and by Bayesian analysis. In our patients (hepatoma prevalence 0.028) a sensitive diagnostic concentration (30-50 ng/ml) will misdiagnose hepatoma so often that a positive test will indicate hepatoma in only 10% of cases. A positive test at a specific diagnostic concentration (500 ng/ml) indicates hepatoma in 100% of cases and is preferable in terms of cost benefit. Although the lower concentration will diagnose a larger proportion of patients with hepatoma (74% compared with 59%) the 'costs' of excluding false positives are considerable (A$2545 per extra case with 2.5% of patients suffering significant morbidity). In western societies, where the prevalence of hepatoma is low, a higher, less sensitive but more specific diagnostic S-AFP concentration is appropriate.

Carcinoma, Hepatocellular↗

PubMed2026

Emergence of two novel HIV-1 Circulating Recombinant Forms (CRF190_0708 and CRF191_0708): molecular characterization and clinical insights from a five-year study in Yunnan, China.

BACKGROUND: To characterize HIV-1 molecular epidemiology and identify novel circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) among antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve heterosexuals in Yunnan, China, and evaluate their clinical impact. METHODS: This study examined 636 HIV-1 pol sequences to analyze genetic diversity, pretreatment drug resistance (PDR), and transmission networks. Near full-length genomes were obtained to identify and characterize novel recombinants, with their evolutionary history inferred by Bayesian analysis. Co-receptor tropism was predicted, and the five-year clinical outcomes (including immune reconstitution and virologic response) of patients infected with the novel CRFs were compared. RESULTS: The most prevalent type identified was CRF08_BC, accounting for 50.16% of cases. The prevalence of drug resistance was 5.97% (38/636), with the K103N mutation being the most common. An analysis of transmission networks revealed that 52.2% (272/521) of clusters were associated with CRF07_BC and CRF08_BC. Two novel second-generation CRFs were identified: CRF190_0708, with an estimated time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of 1998.9, and CRF191_0708, with a more recent tMRCA ranging from 2009.5 to 2011.6. During the five-year follow-up period, viral rebound was observed in 7 patients in the CRF190_0708 group and in 1 patient in the CRF191_0708 group. Drug-resistance mutations (M184V and K103N) were detected in a subset of rebound cases in the CRF190_0708 group. CONCLUSIONS: This study identifies two novel HIV-1 recombinants, CRF190_0708 and CRF191_0708, highlighting ongoing viral evolution in Yunnan. Preliminary findings suggest possible clinical differences, warranting further investigation. Continued molecular surveillance is needed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The clinical study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under the identifier NCT03852849. The date of registration was March 22, 2019.

Adult↗

PubMed2026

The Evolutionary Significance of Leaf Nodulation: Evidence from Ardisia and Its Relatives (Primulaceae: Myrsinoideae).

Interactions between plants and microorganisms have long been a central topic in biological research. Bacterial symbiosis on leaf surfaces represents a distinctive and mutually beneficial system within the phyllosphere microbiome. Leaf nodules are the visible manifestation of the symbiosis and confer ecological advantages to host plants by enhancing host resistance against pathogens and herbivores. It has been hypothesized that these advantages promote higher diversification rates in host lineages, but this remains uncertain. Ardisia subg. Crispardisia and its close relatives (Amblyanthopsis and Amblyanthus) within Primulaceae are typical plant groups with leaf nodule symbiosis, making them an ideal system for testing this hypothesis. In this study, we conducted extensive sampling of "Ardisioids" (Ardisia and its allies) and reconstructed their phylogenetic relationships and evolutionary history using plastid genomes and nuclear datasets (i.e., nuclear ribosomal DNA (nrDNA) and genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)). We clarified the phylogenetic positions of several "Ardisioids" genera (e.g., Sadiria, Tapeinosperma, Amblyanthus, and Amblyanthopsis) and multiple subgenera within Ardisia. We further detected a rapid radiation during the middle Miocene in Ardisia and its allies. Notably, we found that the leaf-nodulated clade appears to have originated during this period, approximately 11-8 Ma. BAMM (Bayesian Analysis of Macroevolutionary Mixtures) analyses revealed elevated diversification rates in leaf-nodulated lineages, while HiSSE (Hidden State Speciation and Extinction) analyses indicated that leaf nodule symbiosis might have increased speciation rates without significantly affecting extinction rates. These results provide strong evidence that leaf nodule symbiosis, together with other abiotic and biotic factors, represents a key evolutionary innovation that has promoted diversification in Ardisia and its close relatives.

diversification rate↗

PubMed1978

The predictive value of myocardial perfusion scintigraphy after stress in patients without previous myocardial infarction.

Seventy-five patients who had chest pain but no history or ECG evidence of myocardial infarction (MI) underwent myocardial-stress perfusion scintigraphy (MSPS) with thallium-201, treadmill-stress testing (TST), and coronary cineangiography (CA). The sensitivities of MSPS and TST for coronary stenosis greater than or equal to 75% were 68% and 71%, respectively; their specificities were 97% and 79%, respectively (0.1 greater than p greater than 0.05). When the character of a patient's chest pain is considered, Bayesian analysis leads to the following conclusions: (a) MSPS can be useful in pre-CA screening of patients with chest pain but no MI if their pain is thought to be of uncertain or nonischemic origin: (b) the sensitivity of Tl-201 MSPS is not sufficient for pre-CA screening of patients without MI who have typical or atypical angina pectoris; (c) the sensitivity of MSPS would have to be approximately 95% in order for the test to be useful in pre-CA screening of patients who have atypical angina pectoris; (d) MSPS may be superior to TST in these applications; and (e) it is not clear that there is any advantage in combining MSPS and TST into a single screening test rather than using MSPS alone.

Cineangiography↗

PubMed2022

Comparison on Major Gene Mutations Related to Rifampicin and Isoniazid Resistance between Beijing and Non-Beijing Strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis: A Systematic Review and Bayesian Meta-Analysis.

Objective: The Beijing strain of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) is controversially presented as the predominant genotype and is more drug resistant to rifampicin and isoniazid compared to the non-Beijing strain. We aimed to compare the major gene mutations related to rifampicin and isoniazid drug resistance between Beijing and non-Beijing genotypes, and to extract the best evidence using the evidence-based methods for improving the service of TB control programs based on genetics of MTB. Method: Literature was searched in Google Scholar, PubMed and CNKI Database. Data analysis was conducted in R software. The conventional and Bayesian random-effects models were employed for meta-analysis, combining the examinations of publication bias and sensitivity. Results: Of the 8785 strains in the pooled studies, 5225 were identified as Beijing strains and 3560 as non-Beijing strains. The maximum and minimum strain sizes were 876 and 55, respectively. The mutations prevalence of rpoB, katG, inhA and oxyR-ahpC in Beijing strains was 52.40% (2738/5225), 57.88% (2781/4805), 12.75% (454/3562) and 6.26% (108/1724), respectively, and that in non-Beijing strains was 26.12% (930/3560), 28.65% (834/2911), 10.67% (157/1472) and 7.21% (33/458), separately. The pooled posterior value of OR for the mutations of rpoB was 2.72 ((95% confidence interval (CI): 1.90, 3.94) times higher in Beijing than in non-Beijing strains. That value for katG was 3.22 (95% CI: 2.12, 4.90) times. The estimate for inhA was 1.41 (95% CI: 0.97, 2.08) times higher in the non-Beijing than in Beijing strains. That for oxyR-ahpC was 1.46 (95% CI: 0.87, 2.48) times. The principal patterns of the variants for the mutations of the four genes were rpoB S531L, katG S315T, inhA-15C > T and oxyR-ahpC intergenic region. Conclusion: The mutations in rpoB and katG genes in Beijing are significantly more common than that in non-Beijing strains of MTB. We do not have sufficient evidence to support that the prevalence of mutations of inhA and oxyR-ahpC is higher in non-Beijing than in Beijing strains, which provides a reference basis for clinical medication selection.

Isoniazid↗

PubMed1979

Microfluorometry analysis II. A Bayesian approach.

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Cell Cycle↗

PubMed2026

Suction-assisted ureteroscopy compared with traditional ureteroscopy for renal stones ≤ 2 cm: a systematic review, Bayesian network meta-analysis and meta-regression.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE: Suction-enhanced flexible ureteroscopy (URS) aims to improve stone clearance and reduce complications. We performed a Bayesian network meta-analysis to compare the efficacy and safety of flexible aspiration navigable sheaths (FANS) and direct in-scope suction (DISS) for renal calculi ≤ 2 cm. METHODS: A systematic search of PubMed, MEDLINE, Scopus, Web of Science, and Google Scholar was conducted through June 2026. Comparative studies of FANS, DISS, or conventional access sheaths for renal stones ≤ 2 cm were included. The primary outcome was 30-day stone-free rate (SFR). Secondary outcomes included operative time, fever, sepsis, and complications. A Bayesian random-effects network meta-analysis synthesized direct and indirect evidence. RESULTS: Seventeen studies including 3,657 patients (1,677 FANS, 56 DISS, 1,924 control) were included. FANS showed higher SFR (OR 2.5, 95% CrI 2.0-3.1), while grouped DISS had a similar but less precise effect (OR 3.1, 95% CrI 1.0-8.8). Calyxo V2 had the highest SFR (OR 5.4, 95% CrI 1.0-29.0), whereas PUSEN showed no significant difference (OR 1.6, 95% CrI 0.41-6.3). FANS reduced postoperative fever and complications. FANS also showed lower odds of postoperative sepsis (OR 0.40, 95% CrI 0.12-0.97). CONCLUSIONS: Suction-assisted ureteroscopy improves SFR for renal calculi ≤ 2 cm. FANS was associated with shorter operative time, fever, and complications. DISS systems show promising but limited results, with performance differing by technology configuration. Larger prospective trials are needed.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Ventriculostomy-Related Infections by Country-Income Level: A Systematic Review and Bayesian Hierarchical Meta-analysis.

Our objective was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of published literature on ventriculostomy-related infection (VRI) and evaluate temporal and global trends. We conducted a systematic review and Bayesian hierarchical random-effects meta-analysis of VRI rates in adults, stratified by country-income level (high-income countries [HIC]; low- or middle-income countries [LMIC]), study design, sample size, enrollment period, VRI intervention, and VRI definition. We identified 159 articles published between 1989 and 2025 that included 523,704 patients with 7293 VRIs. The pooled VRI rate was 8.64% [95% CI: 7.44-9.97], with moderate heterogeneity and good model fit. The leave-one-out sensitivity analysis showed a mean absolute change of 0.06% and a maximum change of 0.2%, indicating robust analysis. Five of the 33 represented countries had VRI rates below the global pooled rate of 8.64%. Four were HICs: Singapore (VRI rate 3.3% [0.8-7]), the United States (VRI rate 4.6% [3.4-5.9]), Germany (VRI rate 6.1% [1.1-18.9]), Norway (8.3% [0.3-68.4]), with 1 LMIC: China (8.5% [5.4-12.4]). VRI was significantly higher in studies using definitions beyond CSF culture alone for VRI (+3.16% [0.11- 6.52]) and in those from Europe (+7.29% [4.62-10.10]) and the Western Pacific (+4.09% [1.55-6.98]). No other subgroup demonstrated significant differences. This Bayesian meta-analysis provides global estimates and factors associated with VRI. Standardization of VRI definitions is critical for future benchmarking of VRI rates.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Comparative effectiveness of game-based learning modalities in nursing and medical education: a systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Game-based learning (GBL) is increasingly used in healthcare education, but educators must choose among diverse modalities (e.g., quiz platforms, apps, serious games and metaverse environments). Comparative evidence on which modalities perform best across learning domains (knowledge, attitudes, and practice) remains limited. AIM: To compare the effects of distinct GBL modalities on knowledge, attitudes, and practice outcomes in nursing and medical education and to explore whether comparative effects differ by learner group (pre-licensure students and in-service professionals). DESIGN: PRISMA-NMA-aligned systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis. METHODS: We searched eight databases and trial registries through September 2, 2024, for randomized controlled trials comparing GBL with traditional teaching (TT). Outcomes were transformed to a 0-100 scale and analysed as change from baseline in Bayesian consistency models; random-effects models were selected using deviance information criterion (DIC). Risk of bias was assessed using RoB 2. We report mean differences (MDs) with 95% credible intervals (CrIs) versus TT, ranking probabilities, and subgroup NMAs by learner group. RESULTS: Thirty-one RCTs (n = 3439) were included; 15 contributed complete data to the network. Risk of bias was low in 15 trials and raised some concerns in 16. The network was modest for knowledge (11 trials) and sparse for attitudes (3) and practice (4). Compared with TT, metaverse-based learning showed improved attitudes (MD 15; 95% CrI 12 to 18), based on a single trial. For knowledge and practice, Kahoot-based quizzes (MD 9.1; 95% CrI -8.9 to 27) and app-based learning (MD 4.6; 95% CrI -4.4 to 14) had the highest estimated mean improvements, but credible intervals were wide and included the null for most comparisons. Subgroup rankings differed by learner group, but several comparisons were imprecise and uncertainty was substantial, particularly in sparse networks. CONCLUSIONS: GBL modalities may improve learning outcomes compared with TT, but relative effects appear domain-specific and the certainty of rankings is limited by sparse evidence and imprecision. Future trials should prioritise head-to-head comparisons, robust outcome measurement, and longer-term retention and transfer outcomes in both student and in-service populations.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Machine learning vs. traditional methods for predicting postoperative cardiac complications after non-cardiac surgery: a systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Accurate prediction of peri-operative cardiac complications is critical to optimise pre-operative decision-making. Traditional risk prediction scores, such as the Revised Cardiac Risk Index, show only modest discrimination. Machine learning can model complex, non-linear relationships but their predictive performance compared with traditional scores remains unclear. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis. The primary outcome was postoperative adverse cardiac events following non-cardiac surgery. Prediction models were assessed relative to the Revised Cardiac Risk Index. As many studies evaluated multiple versions of each model type, the highest performing ('best version') and lowest performing ('worst version') results were analysed. Models were ranked using the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA). RESULTS: Thirteen studies evaluating 54 models and 927,113 patients were included. Machine learning approaches generally outperformed traditional risk scores. Automated machine learning ranked highest (SUCRA 96.6) showed the greatest improvement in the best version analysis (mean difference (MD) 0.28 (95%CrI 0.16-0.40)) and remained superior in the sensitivity analysis (MD 0.30 (95%CrI 0.14-0.45)). Gradient boosting models showed superior performance over the Revised Cardiac Risk Index across analysis (best version: MD 0.20 (95%CrI 0.14-0.26), worst version: MD 0.18 (95%CrI 0.12-0.25), SUCRA 82.4). The Gupta Perioperative Risk for Myocardial Infarction or Cardiac Arrest score outperformed the Revised Cardiac Risk Index in the best version analysis (MD 0.16 (95%CrI 0.01-0.32)). Between-study heterogeneity was low. None of the included studies externally validated their machine learning models and only six were judged to be at low risk of bias. DISCUSSION: Most machine learning models showed better discrimination than traditional risk scores, with automated machine learning and gradient boosting models ranking highest. However, study quality, calibration reporting and absence of external validation limit immediate clinical adoption. Prospective, multicentre evaluation is required before integration of these models into peri-operative practice.

Humans↗