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Results for “Bootstrap resampling”

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PubMed1992

A bootstrap resampling procedure for model building: application to the Cox regression model.

A common problem in the statistical analysis of clinical studies is the selection of those variables in the framework of a regression model which might influence the outcome variable. Stepwise methods have been available for a long time, but as with many other possible strategies, there is a lot of criticism of their use. Investigations of the stability of a selected model are often called for, but usually are not carried out in a systematic way. Since analytical approaches are extremely difficult, data-dependent methods might be an useful alternative. Based on a bootstrap resampling procedure, Chen and George investigated the stability of a stepwise selection procedure in the framework of the Cox proportional hazard regression model. We extend their proposal and develop a bootstrap-model selection procedure, combining the bootstrap method with existing selection techniques such as stepwise methods. We illustrate the proposed strategy in the process of model building by using data from two cancer clinical trials featuring two different situations commonly arising in clinical research. In a brain tumour study the adjustment for covariates in an overall treatment comparison is of primary interest calling for the selection of even 'mild' effects. In a prostate cancer study we concentrate on the analysis of treatment-covariate interactions demanding that only 'strong' effects should be selected. Both variants of the strategy will be demonstrated analysing the clinical trials with a Cox model, but they can be applied in other types of regression with obvious and straightforward modifications.

Brain Neoplasms↗

PubMed2025

S-GMAS: Genome-Wide Mediation Analysis With Brain Subcortical Shape Mediators.

Mediation analysis is widely utilized in neuroscience to investigate the role of brain image phenotypes in the neurological pathways from genetic exposures to clinical outcomes. However, it is still difficult to conduct mediation analyses with whole genome-wide exposures and brain subcortical shape mediators due to several challenges including (i) large-scale genetic exposures, that is, millions of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs); (ii) nonlinear Hilbert space for shape mediators; and (iii) statistical inference on the direct and indirect effects. To tackle these challenges, this paper proposes a genome-wide mediation analysis framework with brain subcortical shape mediators. First, to address the issue caused by the high dimensionality in genetic exposures, a fast genome-wide association analysis is conducted to discover potential genetic variants with significant genetic effects on the clinical outcome. Second, the square-root velocity function representations are extracted from the brain subcortical shapes, which fall in an unconstrained linear Hilbert subspace. Third, to identify the underlying causal pathways from the detected SNPs to the clinical outcome implicitly through the shape mediators, we utilize a shape mediation analysis framework consisting of a shape-on-scalar model and a scalar-on-shape model. Furthermore, the bootstrap resampling approach is adopted to investigate both global and spatial significant mediation effects. Finally, our framework is applied to the corpus callosum shape data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative.

Humans↗

PubMed1992

The nucleotide sequence of the small subunit ribosomal RNA gene from Symbiodinium pilosum, a symbiotic dinoflagellate.

The complete sequence of the small subunit ribosomal RNA (SSU rRNA) gene was determined for the symbiotic dinoflagellate Symbiodinium pilosum. This sequence was compared with sequences from two other dinoflagellates (Prorocentrum micans and Crypthecodinium cohnii), five Apicomplexa, five Ciliata, five other eukaryotes and one archaebacterium. The corresponding structurally conserved regions of the molecule were used to determine which portions of the sequences could be unambiguously aligned. Phylogenetic relationships were inferred from an analysis of distance matrices, where pair-wise distances were determined using a maximum likelihood model for transition and transversion ratios, and from maximum parsimony analysis, with bootstrap resampling. By either analytical approach, the dinoflagellates appear distantly related to prokaryotes, and are most closely related to two of the Apicomplexa, Sarcocystis muris and Theileria annulata. Among the dinoflagellates, C. cohnii was found to be more closely affiliated with the Apicomplexa than either P. micans or S. pilosum.

Animals↗

PubMed2026

Protamine gene expression is associated with sperm motility in rams: An integrative experimental and gene network analysis.

Protamine 1 (PRM1) and protamine 2 (PRM2) are essential regulators of sperm chromatin condensation and genome integrity, and their dysregulation has been associated with impaired male fertility. However, their role in rams remains insufficiently characterized. This study investigated the relationship between protamine gene expression and semen quality in rams and explored their potential upstream regulatory mechanisms using gene regulatory network (GRN) analysis. Fifteen ejaculates from five rams were analyzed. Based on total sperm motility using computer-assisted sperm analysis (CASA), ejaculates were classified into a high-motility group (n = 8) and a low-motility group (n = 7). PRM1 and PRM2 expression levels were quantified by RT-qPCR. Following normality confirmation (p > 0.05), parametric tests were applied using the ejaculate as the biological experimental unit. Samples with reduced motility showed significantly lower expression of both protamines (p < 0.01). Moreover, progressive sperm motility was strongly correlated with both PRM1 (r = 0.71, p = 0.019) and PRM2 (r = 0.69, p = 0.03) transcript levels. Cross-species GRN inference using scGeneRAI and a reference human spermatogenesis dataset identified several hypothesis-generating candidate transcription factors, including HMGB4, HMGB1, H2AFZ, NKX6-1, and SMC3, consistently supported across multiple bootstrap resampling runs. These findings demonstrate a strong association between protamine expression and sperm motility in rams. While the identified candidate regulators provide a valuable framework for future species-specific validation, they also highlight promising candidate molecular biomarkers of male fertility in livestock.

Gene regulatory networks↗

PubMed2026

Systemic biomarkers of treatment response to methotrexate in people with painful knee osteoarthritis: A biological substudy of the PROMOTE randomised controlled clinical trial.

OBJECTIVE: Stratification of therapeutic responses may help identify efficacious therapies for osteoarthritis (OA). In the PROMOTE randomised trial, participants with elevated baseline high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) showed greater pain reduction after methotrexate treatment. We set out to interrogate a broader panel of serum/plasma inflammatory response markers relevant to methotrexate actions as potential biomarkers of therapeutic effect. Our objectives were to: (i) characterize changes in these systemic markers during methotrexate treatment; determine whether (ii) baseline levels or (iii) changes in any marker during treatment were associated with treatment response; and (iv) compare these findings with the more established clinical inflammatory marker, hs-CRP. DESIGN: Plasma/serum samples from participants in PROMOTE's biological substudy were analysed for 35 inflammatory markers at baseline (pre-treatment) and at 6-months (post-treatment), by MesoScale V-plex multiplex assay. Those with paired biological and clinical data at both baseline and 6-months were included in the substudy analysis set. Relationships between markers and overall data structure were assessed by Pearson correlation and Principal Component analysis. Associations between markers (baseline levels or change over time) and change in average knee pain severity in past week (numerical rating scale, NRS) were evaluated by univariable linear regression, adjusting for baseline age, sex, and body mass index. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression with bootstrap resampling enabled marker selection. Benjamini-Hochberg correction adjusted for multiple testing (Padj). RESULTS: 87 participants with paired blood marker and clinical data were eligible for substudy analysis. 18/35 markers were quantifiable and analysed. Systemic IL-8 and TNF-α levels decreased (Padj=0.015, 0.048 respectively) while IL-15 increased (Padj=0.033) with methotrexate treatment over 6-months. Analysing within this active treatment randomised arm, higher baseline IFN-γ was associated with greater reduction in NRS pain change (0.66 [0.01, 1.31], P=0.047), as was decreasing TNF-α over 6-months (2.25 [0.00, 4.5], P=0.049). LASSO identified higher IFN-γ, lower plasma IL-15 and IL-16, and younger age as the most important baseline predictors of pain improvement. hs-CRP was highly selected by LASSO for treatment response in both arms. In a secondary univariate treatment arm-by-biomarker interaction analysis, of the 19 markers, only hs-CRP showed consistent effects in adjusted models (at baseline, coeffic. 2.34 [0.53, 4.15], P=0.001; change over 6-months, (0.36 [0.06, 0.66], P=0.018). CONCLUSIONS: Blood measurement of IFN-γ, TNF-α, IL-15 and IL-16 as well as hs-CRP could act as potential markers to stratify the treatment response by average knee pain to methotrexate in knee osteoarthritis.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Association of time-averaged systemic immune-inflammation indices with in-hospital mortality after intracerebral hemorrhage: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Systemic inflammation plays a central role in secondary brain injury following intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Although inflammatory indices such as the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), and systemic inflammation response index (SIRI) are linked to poor outcomes, their associations with mortality are commonly assumed to be linear, potentially overlooking nonlinear patterns where mortality risk rises steeply at higher levels. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study using the MIMIC-IV database, including 440 patients with non-traumatic ICH who were alive and remained in the ICU for at least 72 h after admission. Mean NLR, SII, and SIRI were calculated from measurements obtained during this period. Multivariable logistic regression and restricted cubic spline (RCS) analyses were applied to assess their independent and nonlinear associations with in-hospital mortality. Model discrimination and calibration were internally validated using 1,000 bootstrap resamples. RESULTS: The in-hospital mortality rate was 26.1%. After multivariable adjustment, NLR and SIRI remained independently associated with mortality. Patients in the highest SIRI quartile had the highest risk of death (aOR = 5.12; 95% CI: 2.57-12.24; p < 0.001). RCS analysis revealed a significant nonlinear association between SIRI and mortality (p-nonlinearity < 0.05), showing a steep risk increase at higher SIRI levels. Adding SIRI to the base model provided a modest improvement in discrimination (AUC 0.762 to 0.785, p = 0.045) and significantly improved risk reclassification (cNRI = 0.4778, p < 0.001; IDI = 0.0240, p = 0.0151). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with ICH who met the 72-hour eligibility criterion, higher 72-hour average SIRI was independently associated with in-hospital mortality. As a time-averaged measure, SIRI should be interpreted as a dynamic marker integrating the initial inflammatory state and the early clinical course rather than as a purely baseline prognostic factor. Although adding SIRI to the base model modestly improved discrimination and risk reclassification, it should be considered a candidate prognostic marker requiring external validation before clinical application.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Factors associated with additional intervention requirement following ESWL in pediatric patients with urolithiasis.

OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of additional intervention following extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) in pediatric patients and to develop a clinically applicable predictive model. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 647 pediatric patients who underwent ESWL between 2015 and 2025. Demographic, clinical, and radiological variables were analyzed. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of additional intervention. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. RESULTS: Additional intervention was required in 65 patients (10.0%). On multivariable analysis, stone size 10-20 mm (OR: 3.04, p = 0.003), moderate (OR: 2.16, p = 0.049) and severe hydronephrosis (OR: 6.05, p < 0.001), and multiple stones (OR: 3.52, p = 0.030) were identified as independent risk factors. Increasing age (OR: 0.84, p = 0.026), history of urolithiasis (OR: 0.41, p = 0.006), and lower calyx location (OR: 0.14, p = 0.034) were associated with a reduced risk. The model demonstrated good discriminative performance (AUC: 0.794), with a sensitivity of 72% and specificity of 75%. Internal validation using bootstrap resampling demonstrated stable model performance, yielding a corrected AUC of 0.732. CONCLUSION: Stone burden, hydronephrosis severity, and stone multiplicity are key determinants of additional intervention after ESWL in pediatric patients. The proposed model shows good predictive performance and may support individualized risk stratification and clinical decision-making.

Humans↗

PubMed1992

Phylogeny of some ascaridoid nematodes, inferred from comparison of 18S and 28S rRNA sequences.

Reverse transcription of cellular RNA was used to obtain sequences from regions of 18S and 26/28S ribosomal RNA for eight species of ascaridoid nematodes. Phylogenetic relationships among these species were inferred from the aligned sequences by maximum-parsimony and maximum-likelihood methods. Seventy-nine of the 168 sites that varied were phylogenetically informative in parsimony analysis. Phylogenetic inference based on maximum-likelihood analysis of all sequence sites yielded a tree of topology similar to that of the parsimony result. Monophyletic groups that were strongly supported by bootstrap resampling of these data included species constituting the Ascaridinae, as well as those representing the Toxocarinae. Alternative topologies that included a member of the Ascaridinae with the Toxocarinae were rejected statistically on the basis of analysis of the mean and variance of parsimony step differences between trees. The conformance of these sequence data to a molecular-clock model of evolution was evaluated statistically by a maximum-likelihood approach. The inferred rate of rRNA sequence change along the branch leading to Parascaris equorum is not consistent with a clocklike model of evolution.

Animals↗

PubMed1992

Evolution of the capsid protein genes of foot-and-mouth disease virus: antigenic variation without accumulation of amino acid substitutions over six decades.

The genetic diversification of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) of serotype C over a 6-decade period was studied by comparing nucleotide sequences of the capsid protein-coding regions of viruses isolated in Europe, South America, and The Philippines. Phylogenetic trees were derived for VP1 and P1 (VP1, VP2, VP3, and VP4) RNAs by using the least-squares method. Confidence intervals of the derived phylogeny (significance levels of nodes and standard deviations of branch lengths) were placed by application of the bootstrap resampling method. These procedures defined six highly significant major evolutionary lineages and a complex network of sublines for the isolates from South America. In contrast, European isolates are considerably more homogeneous, probably because of the vaccine origin of several of them. The phylogenetic analysis suggests that FMDV CGC Ger/26 (one of the earliest FMDV isolates available) belonged to an evolutionary line which is now apparently extinct. Attempts to date the origin (ancestor) of the FMDVs analyzed met with considerable uncertainty, mainly owing to the stasis noted in European viruses. Remarkably, the evolution of the capsid genes of FMDV was essentially associated with linear accumulation of silent mutations but continuous accumulation of amino acid substitutions was not observed. Thus, the antigenic variation attained by FMDV type C over 6 decades was due to fluctuations among limited combinations of amino acid residues without net accumulation of amino acid replacements over time.

Amino Acid Sequence↗

PubMed2026

Development and internal validation of a six-gene prognostic model based on galactose metabolism for overall survival in lung adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer remains a leading cause of cancer incidence and mortality globally. Metabolic reprogramming promotes tumor progression and shapes an immunosuppressive tumor microenvironment. Galactose metabolism is involved in multiple malignancies, but its prognostic value in lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) remains unclear. This study aimed to develop and internally validate a galactose metabolism-related multigene prognostic model for LUAD. METHODS: A retrospective prognostic model development and internal validation study was performed using RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) and clinical data from 585 LUAD patients in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Differential expression, functional enrichment, univariate and multivariate Cox regression were applied to construct a prognostic gene signature. Internal validation was performed using bootstrap resampling. Model performance was evaluated by time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC), C-index, calibration, and Kaplan-Meier analysis. Associations between the model and immune infiltration, immunotherapy responsiveness, and tumor stemness were also analyzed. RESULTS: A six-gene prognostic model (GALT, GANC, PGM1, GALM, B4GALT1, PGM2) was developed. The model showed good discrimination with 1-, 3-, and 5-year area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.719, 0.693, and 0.684, respectively. The low-risk group exhibited significantly longer survival, increased antitumor immune infiltration (CD8+ T cells, M1 macrophages, activated CD4+ memory T cells), higher expression of T cell proliferation-related genes, lower immune checkpoint expression, better predicted immunotherapy response, and lower tumor stemness compared with the high-risk group. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and internally validated a six-gene prognostic model for LUAD based on galactose metabolism. The model shows moderate prognostic performance and is associated with antitumor immunity and tumor stemness. It may be used for prognostic risk stratification and to guide personalized immunotherapy in LUAD.

Galactose metabolism↗

PubMed2026

Coagulation activation is associated with genomic-instability-related features in TP53-mutated AML and MDS: routine laboratory patterns beyond classical disseminated intravascular coagulation.

BACKGROUND: Disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) is a serious complication of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) associated with poor prognosis. In TP53-mutated AML and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS), however, the classical ISTH criteria rarely identify overt DIC, although bleeding and thrombotic complications are well documented in acute leukaemia. We hypothesized that these patients exhibit a lower-grade, subclinical coagulation activation that is associated with the underlying genomic-instability-related features of TP53-mutant disease. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 107 consecutive patients with TP53-mutated AML (n = 52) or high-risk MDS (MDS, n = 55), median age 65 years, diagnosed and initially evaluated at our centre between 2018 and 2025. Seven routine coagulation markers and 46 co-mutated genes were evaluated for associations with overall survival (OS) using univariate and multivariable Cox regression, continuous dose-response modeling, and unsupervised k-means clustering. Internal validity was assessed by 1000 bootstrap resamples. RESULTS: Overt DIC according to ISTH criteria was rare (15%). Subclinical activation was common: 50% of patients had a D-dimer ≥1 μg/mL, 41% a fibrinogen ≥4 g/L, and 29% an INR ≥1.2. In univariate analysis, D-dimer, fibrinogen, INR, prothrombin time, and activated partial thromboplastin time were each associated with OS (HR 1.33-1.38 per SD; all p < 0.05). Complex karyotype correlated with higher D-dimer (median 1.39 vs. 0.60 μg/mL, p = 0.022) and fibrinogen (3.91 vs. 2.53 g/L, p = 0.007), while TP53 variant allele frequency (VAF) showed modest positive correlations with D-dimer (ρ = 0.21), INR (ρ = 0.27), and PT (ρ = 0.27; all p < 0.05). Clustering identified three coagulation phenotypes: Silent (51%), Thrombo-inflammatory (31%), and Consumption-like (18%), showing a graded but statistically non-significant gradient in molecular features and a stepwise decline in median OS (14, 10 and 8 months; log-rank p = 0.041). After adjustment for complex karyotype, TP53 VAF, and favorable co-mutation count, the Consumption-like phenotype was associated with a non-significant increased risk (HR 1.83, 95% CI 0.92-3.65, p = 0.084), whereas favorable co-mutation pathways remained independently protective (HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.35-0.90, p = 0.016). CONCLUSION: In TP53-mutated AML/MDS, coagulation activation intensity is associated with the degree of genomic instability. The three phenotypes may add biological resolution beyond classical DIC and cytogenetic risk groups, but represent laboratory patterns rather than validated bleeding or thrombosis prediction tools. However, after accounting for genomic features, phenotypes were not independent predictors of outcome, with complex karyotype, TP53 VAF, and favorable co-mutation count driving prognosis. Because treatment intensity and other clinical confounders were not available, these survival associations are hypothesis-generating. Coagulation profiling remains inexpensive, widely accessible, and offers a practical window into disease biology that warrants prospective validation.

TP53↗

PubMed2026

Machine learning-guided risk stratification in elderly AML based on genomic, immunophenotypic and therapeutic profiles.

BACKGROUND: Elderly patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) exhibit considerable biological and clinical heterogeneity, hindering precise prognosis. Existing prognostic systems inadequately capture the complexity of elderly AML due to their reliance on data from younger cohorts and omission of key factors like immunophenotypic markers and therapeutic profiles. This study aimed to develop and internally validate a machine learning-based prognostic model specifically tailored to elderly AML patients. METHODS: A total of 156 patients were analyzed using a two-stage modeling strategy. Clinical and genomic variables were modeled first, followed by independent analysis of immunophenotypic features. Feature selection was performed using multilayer perceptron (MLP) and random forest (RF), while multivariate Cox regression was used for final model construction. Internal validation was conducted using 1000 bootstrap iterations to assess model stability and performance. RESULTS: The model demonstrated strong predictive performance, with a concordance index (C-index) of 0.702. Time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) and calibration plots confirmed accurate prediction of 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival. Decision curve analysis indicated favorable net benefit across a range of threshold probabilities. Key independent prognostic factors identified included TP53 mutations, high CD13 expression, and IDH2 mutations. CONCLUSION: This model provides a robust and interpretable tool for individualized risk stratification in elderly AML. By integrating genomic, immunophenotypic, and therapeutic variables, it may help optimize treatment decisions and improve outcomes for this vulnerable population. Future efforts should focus on external validation and integration of dynamic biomarkers.

Humans↗

PubMed1992

Statistical properties of bootstrap estimation of phylogenetic variability from nucleotide sequences. I. Four taxa with a molecular clock.

The statistical properties of sample estimation and bootstrap estimation of phylogenetic variability from a sample of nucleotide sequences are studied by using model trees of three taxa with an outgroup and by assuming a constant rate of nucleotide substitution. The maximum-parsimony method of tree reconstruction is used. An analytic formula is derived for estimating the sequence length that is required if P, the probability of obtaining the true tree from the sampled sequences, is to be equal to or higher than a given value. Bootstrap estimation is formulated as a two-step sampling procedure: (1) sampling of sequences from the evolutionary process and (2) resampling of the original sequence sample. The probability that a bootstrap resampling of an original sequence sample will support the true tree is found to depend on the model tree, the sequence length, and the probability that a randomly chosen nucleotide site is an informative site. When a trifurcating tree is used as the model tree, the probability that one of the three bifurcating trees will appear in > or = 95% of the bootstrap replicates is < 5%, even if the number of bootstrap replicates is only 50; therefore, the probability of accepting an erroneous tree as the true tree is < 5% if that tree appears in > or = 95% of the bootstrap replicates and if more than 50 bootstrap replications are conducted. However, if a particular bifurcating tree is observed in, say, < 75% of the bootstrap replicates, then it cannot be claimed to be better than the trifurcating tree even if > or = 1,000 bootstrap replications are conducted. When a bifurcating tree is used as the model tree, the bootstrap approach tends to overestimate P when the sequences are very short, but it tends to underestimate that probability when the sequences are long. Moreover, simulation results show that, if a tree is accepted as the true tree only if it has appeared in > or = 95% of the bootstrap replicates, then the probability of failing to accept any bifurcating tree can be as large as 58% even when P = 95%, i.e., even when 95% of the samples from the evolutionary process will support the true tree. Thus, if the rate-constancy assumption holds, bootstrapping is a conservative approach for estimating the reliability of an inferred phylogeny for four taxa.

Phylogeny↗

PubMed2026

An individualized nomogram for predicting progression-free survival in systemic anaplastic large cell lymphoma: a multicenter, retrospective, and internally validated study.

OBJECTIVES: To develop an individualized nomogram for predicting disease progression risk in systemic anaplastic large cell lymphoma (sALCL). METHODS: Independent predictors of progression-free survival (PFS) were identified using Cox regression in a multicenter retrospective cohort of 109 sALCL patients (2010-2022). These were incorporated into a three-factor nomogram, evaluated via bootstrapped internal validation (1000 resamples), ROC analysis, C-index, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve (CIC). RESULTS: A total of 29 PFS events occurred during a median follow-up of 31 months. Multivariable modelling selected serum β2-microglobulin elevation, extranodal disease, and front-line chemotherapy choice (CHOP versus CHOPE or BV+CHP) as autonomous progression drivers. Upon internal bootstrap validation, the nomogram yielded strong prognostic accuracy, achieving AUCs of 0.81, 0.85 and 0.87 for 1-, 3- and 5-year progression-free survival, alongside a corrected C-index of 0.779 (95% CI: 0.699 - 0.861). Calibration plots showed close agreement between predicted and observed outcomes, while DCA confirmed superior net clinical benefit versus conventional IPI or Ann Arbor stratification across multiple decision thresholds. CONCLUSION: This first sALCL-specific nomogram integrates clinical and treatment variables to provide personalized PFS risk estimation. While internally validated, this exploratory, observation-based tool requires external validation and recalibration in prospective cohorts before clinical implementation.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

iMTSS: an integrated framework for biology- and patient-driven prognosis in myelofibrosis undergoing transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation is the only curative treatment for myelofibrosis, but failure occurs by two mechanistically distinct routes: relapse of the neoplasm, which reflects its underlying genetics, and non-relapse mortality, which reflects whether the patient and graft tolerate the procedure. Established prognostic systems either lack molecular granularity or were derived in the non-transplant setting, and all collapse these two routes into a single survival estimate. None can indicate why an individual patient is at risk, or which class of intervention might reduce that risk. OBJECTIVE: To determine why an individual patient is at risk and to develop and validate an integrated framework that quantifies biology- and patient-driven prognosis. STUDY DESIGN: We analyzed 1,550 adults undergoing first allogeneic transplantation for primary or secondary myelofibrosis across international centers, the largest genomically annotated transplant cohort in this disease. The cohort was split into development (n=930) and validation (n=620) sets. Overall survival was modeled by Cox regression; relapse and non-relapse mortality were modeled as competing events by Fine-Gray subdistribution-hazard regression at 2 years. Discrimination was assessed by the concordance index with bootstrap confidence intervals. The molecular contribution was quantified by variance decomposition of, and robustness to the analytic choices was examined by resampling. RESULTS: A genetically defined disease-intrinsic axis, including TP53 allelic state, RAS pathway mutations, ASXL1 and driver genotype, blasts and blood counts, predicted 2 year relapse incidence (validation concordance 0.69, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.74), whereas a non-overlapping host and structural axis, including portal vein thrombosis, donor type, patients' performance status, and age predicted 2-year non-relapse mortality (0.63, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.68). The two scores shared only 3.4% of their variance, indicating that a patient's disease genetics carried almost no information about non-relapse mortality. Variance decomposition showed that TP53 allelic state alone accounted for 30% of the relapse score. Recombined, the framework discriminated overall survival (concordance 0.640, 95% CI 0.616 to 0.662) better than every established prognostic system. For proof of concept, 3 risk groups separated in the validation cohort, with 5 year survival of 72%, 58%, and 39% (P<0.001), and the models were well calibrated. CONCLUSIONS: Relapse and non-relapse mortality after transplantation for myelofibrosis are governed by distinct dimensions. Estimating both outcomes independently with genetic and clinical information, in addition to overall survival, establishes an individualized basis for transplant decision-making. The calculator is openly available (https://imtss-calculator.com).

mortality↗