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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2004

Fuzzy differential inclusions in atmospheric and medical cybernetics.

Uncertainty management in dynamical systems is receiving attention in artificial intelligence, particularly in the fields of qualitative and model based reasoning. Fuzzy dynamical systems occupy a very important position in the class of uncertain systems. It is well established that the fuzzy dynamical systems represented by a set of fuzzy differential inclusions (FDI) are very convenient tools for modeling and simulation of various uncertain systems. In this paper, we discuss about the mathematical modeling of two very complex natural phenomena by means of FDIs. One of them belongs to the atmospheric cybernetics (the term has been used in a broad sense) of the genesis of a cyclonic storm (cyclogenesis), and the other belongs to the bio-medical cybernetics of the evolution of tumor in a human body. Since a discussion of the former already appears in a previous paper by the first author, here, we present very briefly a theoretical formalism of cyclone formation. On the other hand, we treat the latter system more elaborately. We solve the FDIs with the help of an algorithm developed in this paper to numerically simulate the mathematical models. From the simulation results thus obtained, we have drawn a number of interesting conclusions, which have been verified, and this vindicates the validity of our models.

Algorithms↗

PubMed1999

Water and sodium requirements of field populations of house mice (Mus domesticus) and short-tailed mice (Leggadina lakedownensis) on Thevenard Island, in the arid Pilbara region of Western Australia.

The coexistence of the Lakeland Downs short-tailed mouse Leggadina lakedownensis and house mouse Mus domesticus on Thevenard Island, in the arid north of Western Australia, prompted a study to compare their seasonal water and sodium metabolism using tritiated water and sodium-22 as tracers. Fractional water influx rates for M. domesticus (40.3 +/- 1.6% total body-water day-1) were significantly higher than those for L. lakedownensis (25.3 +/- 1.2% total body-water day-1). Water effluxes were higher in both species of mouse after the passage of a cyclonic storm near the study site. Water flux differences remained significant between species when turnover rates were scaled with body mass. A comparison of water influx rates of M. domesticus with those predicted for field populations of other eutherian rodents showed that rates for M. domesticus on Thevenard Island were higher than expected. In contrast, water influx rates for L. lakedownensis did not differ significantly from expected values for a desert rodent. Rates of sodium influx for M. domesticus (41.7 +/- 3.6 mmol kg-1 day-1) were over twice those of L. lakedownensis (19.7 +/- 4.8 mmol kg-1 day-1), and were reflected in the significantly higher concentrations of sodium ingested in the diet, and excreted in the urine, of M. domesticus. Furthermore, the rate of water influx was positively correlated with the rate of sodium influx in M. domesticus, suggesting that they were obtaining both water and sodium from the one dietary source. There was no evidence to suggest that mice of either species were experiencing water or sodium stress, because water and sodium influxes and effluxes remained in balance. These results suggest that M. domesticus on Thevenard Island had a higher-than-expected daily water requirement, and may represent a mesic deme of house mice that have yet to adapt to the island environment.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Preparation and response in case of natural disasters: Cuban programs and experience.

Inadequate preparation for national disasters is frequently particularly devastating in lower income countries. The Cuba's location has a diversity of potential natural disasters, including hurricanes, non-tropical depressions, tropical storms, tropical cyclones, and severe local storms, all with intense rains and winds, earthquakes and droughts. Cuban preparation, at all levels, is geared to these predominant threats. Planning for natural disasters is integral to the political and economic life of Cuba, nationally and locally. On several occasions, United Nations (UN) officials have pointed to Cuba as a model for developing countries preparing for hurricanes and other natural disasters. A global policy for managing the risks of natural disasters could improve continuity of assistance for development and reduce the necessity of humanitarian aid. Planning in advance of disasters is a feasible way of helping people, by reducing expenses of emergencies, recuperation, and reconstruction. As climate changes accelerate, many researchers fear a period of irreversible and uncontrollable change. While the atmosphere continues to warm, it generates more intense rains, more frequent heat waves, and more ferocious storms. Thus, achieving better protection of developing countries from an increasing onslaught of natural disasters will only grow in importance. Even though Cuba's contribution to know-how has been recognized by United Nations' officials, progress toward more adequate preparation worldwide has been slow. To support other countries beyond conveying the lessons, Cuba now offers specially trained personnel to cooperate immediately with any country suffering a natural disaster.

Cuba↗

PubMed2026

Direct and spillover hospitalisation patterns during climate hazards across regions of different health-system resilience levels in China: a nationwide retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Health-system resilience serves as a key contributor in mitigating adverse health impacts during climate hazards. However, quantitative insights into resilience-associated health-care utilisation patterns and targeted adaptation policies remain scarce. We aimed to capture the spatiotemporal health impacts in disaster-exposed counties and their neighbouring counties in China during storms, floods, tropical cyclones, and blizzards or winter storms; understand the association between health-system resilience metrics and hazard-attributable hospitalisations; and develop evidence-based adaptation policies towards climate extremes. METHODS: In this retrospective, observational analysis of county-level aggregated hospitalisation data, we used a propensity score matching-difference-in-differences framework to assess the spatiotemporal changes of nine types of disease-specific hospitalisations in both disaster-exposed and neighbouring regions during storms, floods, tropical cyclones, and blizzards in China. We quantified the relative importance and health gains of health-system metrics during such hazards through random forest approach with interpretable partial dependence plots to derive evidence-based adaptation recommendations. FINDINGS: We included hospitalisation data from Jan 1, 2016 to Dec 31, 2023. In this period, 3241 county-hazard event combinations and 41 747 482 hospitalisations were recorded across 955 Chinese counties. The disaster-exposed regions experienced an initial decline in hospitalisation rates, followed by admission surges after disasters. For example, infectious disease admissions decreased by 11·92% (95% CI -10·53 to -13·31) during the flood-active period but increased by 7·68% (6·46-8·91) after 1-2 weeks of floods. Neighbouring zones were also affected through spillover effects, with infectious disease admissions increasing by 3·18% (1·76-4·61) after 1-2 weeks of the floods. Cardiovascular disease, injuries, infectious, respiratory, and mental disorders were more sensitive across all regions. Particularly for disaster-exposed counties, cardiovascular hospitalisations increased by 14·31% (7·34-21·29) during the tropical cyclone-active period. Notably, compared with low-resilience counties, high-resilience counties were associated with 19·48-30·03% smaller hazard-related relative changes in hospitalisation rates during the hazard-active period and 27·07-31·08% smaller hazard-related relative changes in hospitalisation rates in post-hazard periods. For instance, during the storm-active period, the increase in respiratory hospitalisations was 7·21% (0·67-13·75) in high-resilience counties versus 12·13% (5·20-19·05) in low-resilience counties. Health workforce (relative importance 14·58% during the hazard-active period and 13·80% during the post-hazard period) and service delivery (14·10% during the hazard-active period and 14·17% during the post-hazard period) were identified as key contributors of health-system resilience. Empirical synergistic effects were observed when combining interventions during the post-hazard period, with the combined effect of service delivery (individual contribution 8%) and workforce (individual contribution 4%) exceeding the sum of their individual contributions (16% reduction in cumulative excess admissions) by 33%. INTERPRETATION: Climate hazards are associated with substantial changes in hospitalisation rates in both disaster-exposed and neighbouring regions. Health-system resilience is essential in addressing disaster-health challenges. Targeted adaptation interventions should be context-appropriate and threshold-aware, thereby maximising the public health benefits relative to resilience-oriented investments in health systems. FUNDING: Gates Foundation and the National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2005

Sediment deposition rate in the Falefa River basin, Upolu Island, Samoa.

The (137)Cs method was employed to investigate the recent historical rate of sediment deposition on a lowland alluvial floodplain in the Falefa River basin, Upolu Island, Samoa. Caesium stratigraphy in the floodplain sediment profile was clearly defined, with a broad peak at 145-175 cm depth. The measured rate of vertical accretion over the last 40 years is 4.0+/-0.4 cm per year. This rate exceeds observations in humid environments elsewhere, but is similar to that recorded on other tropical Pacific Islands. Available flow data for the Vaisigano River in Samoa give a 'near-catastrophic' index value of 0.6 for flood variability. This is associated with the occurrence of tropical cyclones and storms in the Samoa area. Large floods therefore probably contribute to the high rate of floodplain sedimentation on Upolu Island. A small but growing body of evidence suggests that fluvial sedimentation rates on tropical Pacific islands are some of the highest in the world.

Cesium Radioisotopes↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Global climate changes, natural disasters, and travel health risks.

Whether the result of cyclical atmospheric changes, anthropogenic activities, or combinations of both, authorities now agree that the earth is warming from a variety of climatic effects, including the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions to support human activities. To date, most reports of the public health outcomes of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on heat stroke deaths following heat waves, drowning deaths in floods and tsunamis, and mosquito-borne infectious disease outbreaks following tropical storms and cyclones. Accurate predictions of the true public health outcomes of global climate change are confounded by several effect modifiers including human acclimatization and adaptation, the contributions of natural climatic changes, and many conflicting atmospheric models of climate change. Nevertheless, temporal relationships between environmental factors and human health outcomes have been identified and may be used as criteria to judge the causality of associations between the human health outcomes of climate changes and climate-driven natural disasters. Travel medicine physicians are obligated to educate their patients about the known public health outcomes of climate changes, about the disease and injury risk factors their patients may face from climate-spawned natural disasters, and about the best preventive measures to reduce infectious diseases and injuries following natural disasters throughout the world.

Disasters↗

PubMed2026

Epigenome-wide analysis of DNA-methylation signatures following climate-related disasters.

BACKGROUND: Floods and tropical cyclones (TCs), two of the most frequent and costliest climate-related disasters worldwide, have been linked to sustained health risks extending beyond acute hazards. However, evidence on the underlying epigenetic mechanisms remains scarce. We aimed to characterize DNA methylation patterns associated with exposure to floods and TCs of varying intensities. METHODS: We collected peripheral blood samples from 479 women (132 twin pairs and 215 of their sisters) across Australia. Blood-derived DNA methylation profiles were assessed using the Illumina HumanMethylation450 BeadChip array. Daily flood and TC exposure data for the 6 years preceding each blood draw were obtained from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory and the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship, respectively, and linked to participants based on residential addresses. Using a within-sibship analytical framework that accounted for shared familial factors and other relevant covariates, we examined associations between flood and TC exposures of varying intensities and site-specific methylation at each cytosine-guanine dinucleotide (CpG). Differentially methylated regions (DMRs) were identified using a combination of the comb-p and DMRcate algorithms. RESULTS: There were 164 CpGs and 219 DMRs associated with flood and TC exposures (Bonferroni-adjusted p value < 0.05), mapping to 242 genes enriched in pathways related to inflammation and immune regulation. These genes have been implicated in a wide range of human diseases or phenotypes. The number of differentially methylated CpGs increased with more recent and higher-intensity exposures. Intensity-dependent gene regulation was observed, with genes such as AMT and C22orf45 consistently implicated across various exposure levels, whereas RNF39 and ACY3 emerged only at higher intensities. CONCLUSIONS: Exposures to floods and TCs were associated with differentially DNA methylated signals across the human genome, exhibiting intensity-dependent patterns. The identified signals and related gene pathways may shed light on the biological mechanism underlying the profound health effects of climate-related disasters.

Humans↗

PubMed1955