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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed1989

The demographics of macro-economic-demographic models.

A number of macro-economic-demographic models have been created for developing countries during the decades of the 1970s and 1980s. Such models purport to simulate relationships between demographic variables and the process of socioeconomic development in the particular country, with the dual purposes of enhancing our knowledge of the process in particular settings and, by examining alternative scenarios, providing useful information to policy makers on the selection of demographic and economic policies to enhance economic development and improve human welfare. This paper 1st reviews the antecedents and then focuses on assessing the demographic functions (fertility, mortality, and internal migration rates) used in the 2 families of models which have had perhaps the largest number of applications in developing countries--the Bachue models, originating at the International Labour Office (Geneva), and the ESCAP models, originating at the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (Bangkok). Each has been applied, with significant variations, in at least 3 countries. Economic-demographic functions are defined as endogenous (and substantively meaningful, from the points of view of this paper) whenever there is an effect of economic growth or change in economic structure on the particular demographic function. The bulk of this paper assesses the realism and endogeneity of the fertility, mortality, and migration functions used in the Bachue and ESCAP models, noting, where possible, both the apparent and prima facie behavioral relationships and those that are actually important on the dynamic simulation. Shortcomings are described, including the lack of government expenditure functions with effects on demographic variables. The paper concludes more positively, noting areas of congruence and appealing endogenous relationships and functional forms specified in certain country models. It also suggests further development of, on the 1 hand, both simpler and more realistic planning models (focusing on particular behavioral relationships or sectors of importance to the country), which will be easier for country planners to understand and hence use, and, on the other hand, more complex research models aimed at enhancing our understanding of fundamental, dynamic relationships between economic factors, government policies and fertility, mortality and migration rates during the course of socioeconomic change.

Demography↗
PubMed2006

Levels and trends of demographic indices in southern rural Mozambique: evidence from demographic surveillance in Manhiça district.

BACKGROUND: In Mozambique most of demographic data are obtained using census or sample survey including indirect estimations. A method of collecting longitudinal demographic data was introduced in southern Mozambique since 1996 (DSS -Demographic Surveillance System in Manhiça district, Maputo province), but the extent to which it yields demographic measures that are typical of southern rural Mozambique has not been evaluated yet. METHODS: Data from the DSS were used to estimate the levels and trends of fertility, mortality and migration in Manhiça, between 1998 and 2005. The estimates from Manhiça were compared with estimates from Maputo province using the 1997 National census and 1997 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). The DHS data were used to estimate levels and trends of adult mortality using the siblings' histories and the orphanhood methods. RESULTS: The populations in Manhiça and in Maputo province are young (44% <15 years in Manhiça and 42% in Maputo); with reduced adult males when compared to females (all ages sex ratio of 78.7 in Manhiça and 89 in Maputo). Fertility in Manhiça is at a similar level as in Maputo province and has remained around 5 children per woman, during the eight years of surveillance in Manhiça. Although the infant mortality rate (IMR) in Mozambique has decreased during the last two decades (from 148 deaths per 1000 live births in 1980 to 101 in 2003), it has remained stable around 80 in Manhiça during the surveillance period. Adult mortality has increased both in Manhiça (probability of dying from ages 15 to 60 increased from 0.4 in 1998 to 0.6 in 2005 in Manhiça, from 0.3 in 1992 to 0.4 in 1997 in Maputo province and from 0.1 in 1980 to 0.6 in 2000 in Mozambique). Consequently, the life expectancy decreased from 53 to 46 in Manhiça and from 42 years in 1997 to 38 in 2004 in Mozambique. Migration is high in Manhiça but tends to stabilise after the movements of resettlement that followed the end of the civil war in 1992. CONCLUSION: The population under demographic surveillance in Manhiça district presents characteristics that are typical of southern rural Mozambique, with predominance of young people and reduction of adult males. Labour migration and excess adult male mortality are the major factors for the reduction of adult males. Mortality is high and only infant mortality has started to stabilise while adult mortality has increased, and as consequence, life expectancy has decreased. The Manhiça DSS is an adequate tool to report demographic measures for southern rural Mozambique.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2006

Risk factors for childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. A comparison of data from a Demographic and Health Survey and from a Demographic Surveillance System.

OBJECTS: In a comparative analysis, the effect of risk factors for childhood mortality in Burkina Faso, sub-Saharan Africa, were computed from Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and Demographic Surveillance System (DSS), two very different sources. While most analyses so far determined levels of risk factors, this analysis focuses on the effects of those risk factors. METHODS: Mortality levels are often calculated by strata of risk factor levels separately for each factor. In this publication, their effect was modelled jointly by survival analysis, using all-cause childhood mortality as outcome variable. All live births in rural Burkina Faso in the period of 1994-1998 recorded by the DHS survey Burkina Faso 1998-1999 (5018 births) and the Demographic Surveillance System based in Nouna, western Burkina Faso (6196 births) were included. RESULTS: A simultaneous estimation of hazard rate ratios by a Cox regression model yielded similar estimates for the DHS and DSS data, in line with previous findings based on the Nouna DSS alone. Although DHS surveys do not include children whose mothers had died, ignoring the strong risk factor "death of the mother" does not strongly affect DHS-based results. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the different nature of survey (DHS) and longitudinal (DSS) data, these findings demonstrate that, despite some limitations, results derived from DHS surveys are broadly comparable to DSS data. Both are valuable tools for assessing the importance of risk factors for childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, and they could be combined for better predictions.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1990

Statistico-demographic investigations on the longevity of the Romanian population. II. Longevity and the process of demographic aging.

This is the second part of a two-part paper concerning longevity in Romania. In this part the authors examine "the extent to which levels of longevity reached in the Romanian counties over the period 1966 and 1968 were the result of...demographic aging; to this aim the nature and intensity of the relationship between the dynamics of longevity and demographic aging indices by county, sex and social background [were] correlatively analysed." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND RUM)

Adult↗
PubMed1986

[Demographic transformation in the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy: early fertility decline and the theory of the "demographic transition"].

"The author attempts to expose and explain important elements of the demographic transition in the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy in the last third of the nineteenth century. This is done on the basis of regional differences and time differences of the Coale-Indices (Index of marital fertility, Index of proportion married and Index of overall fertility)." The author considers the differences between marital fertility in rural Hungary and in industrial Austria at the beginning of the demographic transition (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Austria↗
PubMed1988

Demographics in demographic-economic models: a note on the basic activity-commodity framework.

The authors present a critique of an early basic formulation for the development of demographic-economic models by M. Madden and P. W. J. Batey in 1980. They assert that more attention needs to be paid to the demographic components of these models and that "distinctions between household types must be treated more adequately, and mechanisms for changes in household type must be articulated and refined." A reply by M. Madden (pp. 1,537-42) is included, as well as a response by the authors (pp. 1,543-5).

Demography↗
PubMed2006

[Socio-demographic identification of anxiety-depression types (socio-demographic specification and prediction of types)].

In the article "Identification of Types in Small Samples with the help of Bootstrap Simulation" we could show how anxiety-depression types could be explored in small samples. We used the two sub-scales (anxiety and depression) in accordance with the indications of the HAD manual of Zigmond, A.S. & Snaith R.P. . The extraction of types will be repeated with the data of n=168 homeless people. Then the socio-demographic homogeneity of the extracted types will be tested. With this procedure we want to answer the question, whether in the sub-group of homeless people, the knowledge the degree of expression of some significant socio-demographic traits will allow us assigning them to specific anxiety-depression types.

Anxiety↗
PubMed1980

Demographic responses and demographic transitions: a case study of Sweden.

An important study by Friedlander investigated some of the effects of different demographic responses on national demographic transitions. England and Sweden were advanced as cases that approximated the suggested hypothetical models of transitions. His argument implied that the rural population of a country (in this case Sweden) experiencing mortality decline but little industrialization would reduce its fertility rates if our-migration from agricultural areas were not possible. This present study, using more complete data and better measures, concludes that this did not occur in Sweden--it did not conform to Friedlander's hypothesized model. Because the potential implications of these findings could be profound and wide-ranging, there is a need for more studies of individual countries using better data and giving more careful attention to Davis's theory on which the Friedlander hypothesis is based.

Birth Rate↗
PubMed1997

Brief communication: estimates of some demographic parameters in a Neolithic rock-cut chamber (approximately 2000 BC) using iterative techniques for aging and demographic estimators.

Two new techniques-one anthropological, which estimates the mean age at death for adult skeletons, the other demographic, which gives main survivorship curve parameters-are used on a sample of skeletons (N approximately 170) discovered in a Neolithic rock-cut chamber (Loisy-en-Brie, France). The iterative technique for aging used a stochastic sampled F matrix derived from the trabecular involution of the femoral head observed in the reference collection of Coimbra (Portugal; N = 421). The results, obtained from techniques and data, independent of each other, are strongly consistent. Overall, they give a life expectancy at birth of about 25-28 years and the probability of death at 1 and 5 years, respectively, of about .271-.249 and .429-.380.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1984

Demographic and clinical data associated with acute necrotizing ulcerative gingivitis in a dental school population (ANUG-demographic and clinical data).

This study was undertaken to determine the prevalence of demographic and clinical factors of patients diagnosed as having ANUG as determined by the presence of painful, bleeding, necrotic and ulcerated interproximal gingival papillae. Results showed that ANUG patients were evenly divided between males and females relative to the general clinic population. 58% of the patients with ANUG were under 25 years of age as compared to 31% under 25 in the general clinic population. Overall, the ANUG group accounted for 1.4% of the under 34 age group in the general clinic population. 76% of the ANUG group had a high school education or less with 67% having less than $5,000 annual income. Only 20% presented with elevated temperature. Only 6% of the patients with ANUG were non-smokers as compared to 63% in a matched control group. Of great significance was the fact that only 1 patient with ANUG was black as compared to a 41% black population in the clinic population.

Adolescent↗