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Effect of declining fertility on population aging in India: an application of Coale's analytical model.

This paper attempts to gauge the effect of constantly declining fertility on population aging in India through the application of an analytical model proposed by Ansley Coale (1972), which employs stable population theory. The author has assumed a linearly constant fertility decline in India to obtain a net reproduction rate equals 1 by the year 2001. The projected age distribution in 2001 shows that the proportions of males and females aged 65+ will be 3.66% and 3.98% respectively. This means that there would be an increase of 7.3% in the proportion of males (65+) from 1971 to 2001. The corresponding increase for females is more, 17.4%. The median age of males increases from 16.59 to 22.92 years during the same period. For females, the increase is from 16.64 to 22.75 years. Although the proportional increase of the aged is not very substantial, the absolute magnitude it implies is very large. It has far reaching implications in the development process in India.

Adult↗

Changes in age at marriage of women in rural north India.

There has been a dramatic increase in age at marriage for women in a rural area of north India. Age at marriage rose from under 12 years before 1930 to about 19 years in 1988, mainly as a result of socioeconomic development and advances in education of women.

Adolescent↗

The treatment of coronary artery disease in the elderly.

Changing population demographics dictate that in the next decade physicians will be increasingly faced with treating coronary artery disease in the elderly. Despite this, there is a paucity of data to guide management decisions in this population. Currently, it appears that "low-risk" or mild coronary artery disease can be treated medically so long as appropriate adjustments are made for aging changes in renal function, hepatic metabolism, noncompliance, multisystem disease, etc. Unfortunately, most elderly patients have "high-risk" or severe coronary artery disease. Balloon dilatation can yield excellent results in certain highly selected "high-risk" patients, but its role in the frequently encountered multivessel disease patient is unclear until current studies are completed. Coronary bypass grafting in selected patients clearly prolongs survival, but careful patient selection and meticulous preoperative and postoperative is required. Finally, the importance of issues such as quality of life, function independence, and cost must be addressed in more detail if physicians are to make rational decisions in treating this expanding population.

Aged↗

Measuring quality of care with an inpatient elderly population. The geriatric resource nurse model.

Nurses provide health services to an increasing number of older adults in acute care settings. Acute care nurses are committed to giving patients the highest quality care while recognizing the importance of delivering care in a cost-effective manner. In this study, a unit-based, nurse-centered geriatric program is evaluated. The program is designed to enhance the knowledge and skill of staff nurses in providing care to elderly patients. Both quantitative and qualitative methods are used to assess geriatric resource nurses' (GRNs) influence on quality and cost outcomes of the elderly participants. Patients age 65 years and older were randomly selected from two general medical units of a major academic tertiary care center in the southeastern United States. Data were collected during an 18-month period in 1996 and 1997. A total of 129 participants provided data for quantitative analysis. A subset of 34 participants (17 from the unit where GRNs were on staff and 17 from a control unit) was interviewed about their experience during hospitalization. This information was analyzed for common themes and trends using appropriate qualitative techniques. Demographic variables and common measures of illness severity and complexity showed comparable patient populations on the two units. However, results of quantitative analyses indicated significant differences between groups on admission for several of the health status measures. Participants on the unit without GRNs were found to have more problems with pain, incontinence, and mobility. Administrative measures showed the number of patients readmitted to the hospital within 31 days of discharge and the length of stay associated with this initial readmission were significantly lower on the unit with GRNs. The use of vest-type physical restraints was also less frequent on this unit. Elderly patients in both groups indicated they have special needs related to normal aging changes and chronic illnesses, resulting in higher levels of fragility and decreased energy reserves. They identified specific functional areas for which help was needed. These include assistance with bathing, eating, sleeping, mobility, and elimination. Fewer participants on the intervention unit reported decline in activities of daily living (ADL) function during hospitalization than did control participants. Participants in both groups stressed the importance of nurses' demonstrating understanding and caring when working with older individuals.

Aged↗

The direct and indirect relationships between alcohol prevention measures and alcoholic liver cirrhosis mortality.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this article is to investigate direct and indirect relationships between prevention measures and alcoholic liver cirrhosis mortality in Canadian provinces from 1968 to 1986. METHOD: The data base that was assembled included alcoholic cirrhosis mortality rates, alcohol availability measures (rate of licensed premises, year in which the legal drinking age was reduced), per capita consumption of alcohol, rates of AA members and groups, and economic and demographic measures. This article develops a two-equation analytic model based on the availability theory of alcohol problems and prevention (Single, 1988). The distinction between direct and indirect effects of prevention measures can be made explicitly with this model. RESULTS: Alcohol availability measures, but not AA measures, had a significant direct potential impact on alcohol consumption. AA measures had a significant direct relationship to cirrhosis mortality rates. Alcohol consumption also had a significant direct relationship to cirrhosis mortality, and alcohol availability measures had an important indirect relationship through their influence on per capita alcohol consumption. CONCLUSIONS: While these observations need to be interpreted cautiously, the two-equation model shows promise as an approach to understanding direct and indirect influences on alcohol problems. As expected, AA measures and per capita alcohol consumption demonstrated significant direct relationship to cirrhosis mortality. In addition, important indirect influences of drinking-age changes and rates of licensed premises on cirrhosis mortality were observed through their relationships to per capita alcohol consumption.

Adult↗

Age at first marriage and fertility in rural Anhui, China.

This paper examines the changing nuptiality pattern of rural China, particularly rural Anhui in relation to the planned social changes since 1949 and their effect on fertility. The data are from the 1/1000 Fertility Survey of China, conducted by the Family Planning Commission in 1982. Before the family planning programme was introduced to rural Anhui (1972), the changing nuptiality pattern was indirectly affected by the planned social changes; after 1972, the substantial increase in age at first marriage was mainly due to the family planning programme. More recently, the centrally controlled social structure is loosening, due to the economic reform and the nuptiality pattern seems to join the 1972 trend, suggesting that the dramatic change of nuptiality pattern during the early 1970s to early 1980s was a temporary one. But its effect on fertility is clear, and the shortening interval between marriage and first birth may bring difficulties for future population control in rural China.

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A view of delayed parenting: some implications of a new trend.

The voluntary postponement of childbearing until after age 30 has become much more common, especially as new opportunities for women have emerged. Little is understood about the psychological impact on parenting and on children of women's reordering of priorities with greater emphasis on work outside the home. The assumption is made and corroborated that older mothers, who have developed competence in the world before childbearing, bring to the mothering experience strengths and shortcomings different from those of their younger counterparts. The same is assumed to be true of fathers. In a study of "on time" and delayed parenting, we found older mothers with established careers to be generally more accepting and less conflicted in the parenting role than were younger professional women. They revealed strengths which were concomitant with their level of maturity and which seemed generally advantageous for their children's development. This study suggests the need for further inquiry into the profound impact on children of parental developmental achievements and indicates that the controversy about working versus nonworking mothers may be of much less importance than an understanding of adult development and its impact on the quality of parenting.

Adult↗

Is worker age a simple demographic variable?

Birth-date-based chronological age is often used as a measure of worker ability. In the near future, employers will be required to improve their ability to assess the impact of aging on workers. The literature suggests a number of ways one might do this. Personal perceived age and work ability assessment are two promising alternative ways to assess worker age changes. In support of these alternatives and as a preface to the other papers presented in this journal, this paper suggests that personal perceived age reports differ from chronological age, are reliable, and appear to be worthy of further consideration.

Aging↗

Education as policy: the impact of education on marriage, contraception, and fertility in Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia.

Using data from the World Fertility and Demographic and Health Surveys of Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia, we model the effects of education on three demographic outcomes: the timing of first sexual union, contraceptive use, and fertility. These effects are examined over time and across geographic areas using a multivariate framework. We find substantial improvements in female educational attainment over the last fifty years and a strong relationship between education and the demographic outcomes. Each successive increment in education is associated with declines in the marriage rate, increased contraceptive use, and lower fertility. Education accounts for some of the changes over time in the demographic outcomes, but the pattern varies by outcome, time period, and geographic area. In support of the social diffusion hypothesis, our results indicate that educational differences in reproductive behavior are reduced as the level of development increases and societies pass through their demographic transition.

Adolescent↗

Predictors of the progression of functional disability in patients with ankylosing spondylitis.

OBJECTIVE: To identify patient characteristics that predict the short term (5 yr) rate of progression of functional disability in ankylosing spondylitis (AS). METHODS: In a prospective longitudinal study, 212 patients with AS reported information on health status on biannual mailed questionnaires. The median duration of followup was 5 yrs (range 1-7.5 yrs). Functional disability was measured using the Health Assessment Questionnaire for the Spondyloarthropathies (HAQ-S; possible range 0-3). Predictors of the rate of change in the HAQ-S over time included demographic characteristics, number of comorbid conditions, age at onset of AS, peripheral arthritis, smoking, body mass index, social support (measured by the Interpersonal Support Evaluation List, ISEL), current and past physical activity at work, current and past recreational activity, severity of pain and stiffness, nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug use, and frequency of back exercise. Associations between the predictors and the rate of progression of functional disability (HAQ-S units/yr) were tested using pooled time series regression analysis. RESULTS: Patients were mostly middle-aged (mean 48 yrs), male (70%), white (86%), and well educated (mean 15.5 yrs), with an average duration of AS of 20 yrs and little functional disability at study entry (mean HAQ-S 0.66). Over a median of 5 yrs, the HAQ-S increased at an average rate of 0.0168 units/yr. In multivariate analyses, older age (change in slope +0.0007 units/yr of age; p = 0.0008) and smoking (change in slope +0.0313 units/yr; p < 0.0001) were associated with more rapid progression, while more frequent back exercise (change in slope -0.0019 units/yr per each additional day/week; p < 0.0001) and better social support (change in slope -0.003 units/yr per 10 point increase in ISEL score; p = 0.05) were associated with improvement in functional disability over time. Smoking and lack of social support were also associated with the progression of functional disability in the subgroup of 58 patients who had AS < 10 yrs at entry. CONCLUSION: Functional disability in AS progresses more rapidly in older patients and smokers, and less rapidly in those who regularly do back exercises and have better social support.

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Birth statistics 1993.

The key birth statistics for 1993, in Table E of the Annual Review on page 7 of this volume, show that: The total number of live births fell for the third consecutive year and was 673 thousand in 1993, 2 per cent fewer than in 1992, and the lowest annual total since 1986. The number of women in reproductive ages changed only marginally, so that the crude birth rate (CBR), the general fertility rate (GFR) and total period fertility rate (TPFR) each decreased. The TPFR was 1.76 in 1993, 2 per cent lower than in 1992. The mean age of women at childbirth continued to rise, and reached 28.1 years. The proportion of births outside marriage increased by a further 1 per cent between 1992 and 1993, to reach 32.2 per cent. There were 105.6 male births for every 100 female births--a higher ratio than in 1992.

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The initiation of adolescent sexual and contraceptive behavior during changing times.

This paper examines changes in the initiation of adolescent sexual and contraceptive behavior in the United States between 1978 and 1988. Since a number of contextual changes occurred during this time period including a focusing of public attention on adolescent pregnancy along with the widespread publicity surrounding AIDS, we expected that the response to these events not only would change over time, but would also vary across social groups. Using data from Cycles III and IV of the National Survey of Family Growth, we find that the overall population patterns of earlier initiation of sexual intercourse and increased use of condoms at first intercourse are not found in all segments of the population. In general, the effects of race, religion, mother's education, and age changed during this time period. The long-term trend of younger age at first intercourse was halted for Blacks, and reversed for White, fundamentalist Protestants, but continued for all other Whites. Overall, patterns throughout the decade suggest that pressures from parents, religious groups, and others either lead to a later age at first intercourse, or use of contraception, but not both. A notable exception is that increased maternal education leads to both a later age at first intercourse and a higher likelihood of using contraception at first intercourse.

Adolescent↗

[Treatment of emergency conditions in the aged--suggestions for solutions].

If it is true that we are living in the era of sure surgery and dangerous medications, then this fact is particularly relevant in the treatment of elderly patients from third age-group. The uncontrollable growth of the number of such people (demographic signs point to an increase of population by 100%), demands complete changes in the medical approach to patients from the third age-group, especially considering the peculiarities of the geriatric medicine: intermingling of involute molecular ageing changes; multimorbidity; especially chronic development of decease; changes in the selection of selection of appropriate medications and medical treatment. Problem of chronic illness is the most outstanding problem of old age, and therefore, within the total health-care system nothing can be right, nor in its place, until major questions of the health protection for elderly in the third age-group are resolved. One of the most important phenomenon associated with these problems is in hospitalisation where, because of a limited hospital capacity, there is usually not enough space for patients from middle age-group, and even more so for elderly from the third age-group. According to presented data, the fact that third-age group constitutes 23.11% of examined patients, points to an obvious urgency and the actuality of these matters. The health problems of patients from third age-group demand special training of physicians and their assistants of all profiles, and a special scientific research in this area.

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