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Results for “Demographic Transition”

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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed1978

Social justice and the demographic transition: lessons from India's Kerala State.

Kerala is a small, densely crowded state in South India. It is a poor state, even by Indian standards. Its per capita income of US$80 lies well below the all-India average of US$120, and it suffers from the lowest per capita caloric intake in India. Nevertheless, Kerala has managed to achieve the demographic transition from high (premodern) to low (modern) birth and death rates-something no other Indian state has been able to attain. Indeed, the magnitude of Kerala's fertility decline-the birth rate fell from 39 in 1961 to 26.5 in 1974-has never before been observed in a nation with comparable levels of income and undernutrition. Other indices of Kerala's soical development are equally surprising: levels of literacy, life expectancy, female education, and age at marriage are the highest in India, while mortality rates, including infant and child mortality, are the lowest among Indian states. But Kerala's anomalous and unexpected demographic trends and levels are not the result of the direct interventions designed to influence health and fertility levels elsewhere in India-conventional strategies of population control and health services delivery that thus far are notable for their failure to generate such positive results. Instead, Kerala's demographic levels evidently reflect a broad social response to structural reforms in its political economy.

Birth Rate↗
PubMed1979

The effects of demographic transition on the opportunity for selection: changes during the last century in Italy.

The index of opportunity for selection proposed by Crow has been calculated for the Italian population during the last century. The evolution of its two components, the pre-reproductive mortality and the variance in fertility, has been also analysed and compared with similar data for the United States. The results clearly show the relevance of socio-economic changes to the evolution of selective patterns in our species; in particular the relative incidence of mortality and fertility to selection intensity: the total index has in fact been reduced by 75% during the last century, the relative amount due to fertility increasing from 57 to 89%. The probable different relevance of genetic factors in the two components has also been discussed.

Demography↗
PubMed1991

The demographic transition in Kenya: a portent for Africa?

It is contended that issues of population growth will continue to be an important frontier of international health. Kenya's case is examined and its achievements in arresting its population growth are analyzed. The case is made that Kenya's experience is transferable to other countries in Africa.

Adult↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[Local health systems: a transition of the organized social response].

This paper discusses the transition of the organized social response in health with emphasis on local health systems. After reviewing a few basic definitions (health system, local health system, health care system, institutional system of health services), the author discusses the health transition (transition of the concept health-disease, technological transition, epidemiological transition, demographic transition, health care system transition) and the importance attributed to local health systems in Mexico.

Delivery of Health Care↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Women's status and fertility: successive cross-sectional evidence from Tamil Nadu, India, 1970-80.

This study explores linkages between the status of women and fertility over time in Tamil Nadu, India, using sample survey data for currently married women aged 35-44 in 1970 and 1980. The effects of individual indicators of the status of women on fertility are decomposed into effects through each of the proximate variables, notably those affecting marriage duration, marital fertility, and contraception. There is considerable variation in the direction and magnitude of the relationships between the status indicators and fertility behavior and in the relationship to the underlying mechanisms at the two points in time. On balance, the evidence suggests improvements in the status of women come to exert an increasingly negative effect on fertility over the course of demographic transition.

Adult↗
PubMed1991

Changing sex ratio of mortality in the Semai Senoi, 1969-1987.

An excess of male over female deaths is characteristic of modern national populations, whereas in some high-mortality societies female mortality exceeds that of males. Among the Semai Senoi, a Malaysian Orang Asli ("aboriginal") population, women experienced higher mortality than males in the decades before 1969. This differential occurred in all age classes older than 15 years so that the sex ratio progressively increased with age. A recent (1987) restudy of the Semai population found that sex-specific differential mortality is much reduced. A comparison of the 1969 and 1987 life tables shows a sharp shift in the sex ratios of mortality for the post-15-year-old age classes (the geometric means of age classes 15-44 were 0.768 in 1969 and 0.997 in 1987) so that male and female expectations of further life at age 15 are now nearly identical. In contrast to the best-known cases of high female mortality (mostly in South Asia), Semai sex differential mortality does not include the childhood ages. The Semai have traditionally been relatively sexually egalitarian, and sex bias in care has not occurred. Analysis of sex-specific causes of death for the pre-1969 population suggests that maternal mortality is the major cause of the excess female deaths. The reduced number of maternal deaths seems largely due to better health care, particularly the availability of hospital services. Interestingly, the reduction in female mortality has occurred simultaneously with increased fertility, and overall mortality has continued at relatively high levels (eO less than 36). Thus, rather than forming a component of a unitary demographic transition, declining sex differences in mortality can be accounted for by a specific factor, better maternal care.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1991

Paths for future population aging.

Developed countries with low fertility and mortality rates are already experiencing population aging and will continue to do so. Some developing countries undergoing demographic transitions are beginning to acknowledge the issues of population aging. The projected declines in fertility in other developing countries will mean substantial population aging in the future. Alternative measures for population aging can clarify issues that arise with this process. Because population aging is inevitable, all countries need to incorporate aging policies with population policies.

Adolescent↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Anticipated child loss to migration and sustained high fertility in an east Caribbean population.

Development today is commonly accompanied by rapid urbanization and, where possible, high rates of migration to industrialized countries. At the same time, the expected demographic transition has often not materialized despite decreases in death rates. Child-to-woman ratios in St. Vincent and the Grenadines are related to the educational attainment of women in a census district, the percentage of men engaged in agriculture, whether the district has direct access to the outside world through a port or airport, and, when the other variables are controlled, the stability of a district's population. Those districts with the greatest stability of population had the lowest child-to-woman ratios, suggesting that the anticipated loss of children to migration may be an important factor in maintaining high reproductive rates.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1977

Toward stationary populations and beyond.

The world's rate of population growth is declining. Most industrialized societies have achieved or are moving rapidly toward stationary populations, but while birth rates are also declining in many developing countries, continued growth must be expected because of the large proportions of young people in these populations. New evidence of exceptions to the classical demographic transition theory indicate that declining fertility is compatible with high mortality or low socioeconomic development if acceptable means of fertility control are readily available. "Fertility silhouettes" showing differing age-specific fertility rates indicate that present family planning programs have had a demographic impact. A review of the economic and ecologic consequences of rapid population growth justifies the conclusion that considerable effort will be required to again bring the world's population into balance with these systems. The author outlines priorities for this effort, with emphasis on the need to devise acceptable means of fertility control that will not tax the frail health care infrastructures of developing countries.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1992

Oral contraceptive marketing in Ibadan, Nigeria.

The demographic transition in Nigeria is gradually moving towards the second stage. There is clear evidence of a declining mortality but the fertility rate remains exceptionally high. A realistic approach towards reducing fertility rate is the use of oral contraceptive. This study assesses the distribution system of oral contraceptive in Ibadan, the second largest city in Nigeria. The findings revealed that the people are aware of modern oral contraceptives as they purchase them freely at chemist shops. But effective distribution is hampered by existing channels and high costs. A local source recommended is the proprietary medicine stores, often at convenient locations to the potential users of contraceptives. The current cost which is between $1.3 and $19.5 per couple-years of protection is exorbitant, consuming 0.5-7.8% of the gross annual income of the average individual. Therefore, the government should subsidize the prices of oral contraceptives, to facilitate freedom from the tyranny of excessive fertility.

Contraception↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[Evolution and revolution in health].

For the past several years, Mexico has experienced vast transitions which have had an effect on the state of health and the form in which its inhabitants are adequately cared for. The transitions--demographic, epidemiological, cultural/educational, economic, social, and political--show us how changes in the area of health come about. These can be grouped into two categories: (1) a new look at health care and (2) the accelerated progress in biomedical investigation. With regard to health care, the changes are directed towards a preventative emphasis rather than a curative one. This leads us to structural and functional redefinitions of health services. The government, since the past century, has put several experiments into practice (for the purpose of protecting vulnerable groups) by establishing institutions that have served as a foundation for the National Health System. These efforts intend to offer to everyone equal opportunities for the enjoyment of health. The second category shows the accelerated pace of biomedical research and its resulting beneficial achievements. It is now possible to offer better attention with more specific diagnosis and more efficient therapeutic measures.

Culture↗
PubMed1992

A stochastic model for medium-term estimation of the prevalence of HIV infection in a South African heterosexual population.

This paper describes the development of a micro-simulation model to estimate the extent of HIV infection among black heterosexual South Africans and attempts to predict the number of newly acquired cases of HIV infection for the period 1985-2000. Owing to the lack of key data inputs, many assumptions are made. The inputs used are estimated demographic transition, HIV-positive immigrants, probability of being HIV-positive, probability of acquisition of infection upon at-risk contact by gender, time to AIDS distribution, average number of new sexual partners over time by age and gender, average number of sexual contacts per partner by gender and age group, and probability of sexual contact by age group between genders. Paediatric, homosexual and intravenous HIV cases are excluded from the model. The results indicate a fairly rapid increase in HIV infection from 1988 until the year 2000, when 5,664,487 adults, i.e. approximately 27% of the total adult (15-60 years) black population, could have become HIV-positive. This first phase of the model does not include the effect of a change in behaviour or the possible effect of effective drugs or vaccines and is therefore a worst-case scenario, maximum-potential estimate. The results are very similar to previously published South African actuarial and macro-simulation models.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗