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PubMed1984

The demographic transition.

Demographic transition is a set of changes in reproductive behavior that are experienced as a society is transformed from a traditional pre-industrial state to a highly developed, modernized structure. The transformation is the substitution of slow growth achieved with low fertility and mortality for slow growth maintained with relatively high fertility and mortality rates. Contrary to early descriptions of the transition, fertility in pre-modern societies was well below the maximum that might be attained. However, it was kept at moderate levels by customs (such as late marriage or prolonged breastfeeding) not related to the number of children already born. Fertility has been reduced during the demographic transition by the adoption of contraception as a deliberate means of avoiding additional births. An extensive study of the transition in Europe shows the absence of a simple link of fertility with education, proportion urban, infant mortality and other aspects of development. It also suggests the importance of such cultural factors as common customs associated with a common language, and the strength of religious traditions. Sufficient modernization nevertheless seems always to bring the transition to low fertility and mortality.

Birth Rate↗
PubMed1992

Three types of birthrates in the USSR: stages of demographic transition.

"Regional differences in birthrate indicators, which are primarily associated with different stages of the demographic transition, are examined in three typical USSR republics: post-transitional (Estonia), transitional (Azerbaijan), and pre-transitional (Tajikistan). Demographic transition theory in the explanation and forecasting of birthrate trends is discussed. It is concluded that the experience of the USSR supports the universal nature of this theory."

Asia↗
PubMed2002

Policy implications of the next world demographic transition.

Although the world demographic transition from high to low fertility appears to be nearing its completion, observed in perspective, this is the latest in a series of such transitions stretching back into prehistory. A stable new equilibrium is far from inevitable; indeed, it is unlikely. Many countries are experiencing below-replacement-level fertility, and this trend is spreading. Couples are now able to choose their family size, free of the traditional pressures to bear children that was characteristic of most traditional societies. In fact, most societal pressures for the last generation have been distinctly antinatalist, in response to the enormous attention paid by the media to the "population bomb" agenda. This antinatalist attitude is changing, however, and what seems more likely than either a stationary or declining world population is a new growth cycle reflecting a resurgence of fertility as a response to growing material affluence and potential technological mastery of environmental challenges. Societal pressures and policies will play a role in this transition as they did in earlier ones.

Demography↗
PubMed1992

[The demographic transition in Finland and Hungary].

"The study compares demographic transition in Finland and Hungary in the 1881-1986 period. The analysis focuses on the classical two-factor model of demographic transition, i.e. the effect of fertility and mortality on the number and age composition of inhabitants.... The author [also] presents six population projections, prepared with the [cohort] method, covering the period of 1991-2041. By means of these he compares the likely changes in the number and age composition of inhabitants in Finland and Hungary." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)

Age Distribution↗
PubMed2005

Effects of range position, inter-annual variation and density on demographic transition rates of Hornungia petraea populations.

The central-marginal model assumes unfavourable and more variable environmental conditions at the periphery of a species' distribution range to negatively affect demographic transition rates, finally resulting in reduced population sizes and densities. Previous studies on density-dependence as a crucial factor regulating plant population growth have mainly focussed on fecundity and survival. Our objective is to analyse density-dependence in combination with the effect of inter-annual variation and range position on all life stages of an annual plant species, Hornungia petraea, including germination and seed incorporation into the seed bank. As previous studies on H. petraea had revealed a pattern opposite to existing theory with lower population densities at the distribution centre in Italy than at the periphery in Germany, we hypothesised that (1) demographic transition rates are lower, (2) the inter-annual variation in demographic transition rates is higher and (3) the intensity of density-dependence is weaker in Italy than in Germany. To analyse demographic transition rates, we used an autoregressive covariance strategy for repeated measures including density and inter-annual variation. All the three hypotheses were confirmed, but the impact of range position, density-dependence and inter-annual variation differed among the transition steps. All transition rates except fecundity were higher in the German populations than in the Italian populations. Germination rate and incorporation rate into the seed bank were strongly density-dependent. Central populations showed a larger inter-annual variation in fecundity and winter survival rate. Winter survival rate was the only transition step with a stronger density-dependence in peripheral populations. In most cases, these differences between distribution centre and periphery would not have emerged without taking density-dependence and inter-annual variation into account. We conclude that including range position, inter-annual variation and density-dependence in one single statistical model is an important tool for the interpretation of demographic patterns regarding the central-marginal model.

Analysis of Variance↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Effects of consanguinity on pre-reproductive mortality: does demographic transition matter?

The aim of this study was to investigate whether there is an increase on premature deaths due to genetically determined factors at the beginning of a demographic transition. We also analyzed the effects of parental consanguinity on offspring mortality from an epidemiological viewpoint, using parish records for family reconstitution in a Basque population (1800-1990). Among the offspring of unrelated parents, 13.1% died before their first year of life (infant mortality), and 22.8% died before the age of 16 (pre-reproductive mortality). Significant increases in both infant (23.6%) and pre-reproductive (38.5%) deaths were found among the progeny of first cousins or closer relatives, 1C (F > or = 0.0625). The corresponding relative risks of mortality were 1.79 (95% confidence limits: 1.37-2.28) and 1.68 (1.38-2.01), respectively. Estimates of the population attributable risks indicate that 4% of pre-reproductive mortality is ascribable to consanguineous unions, although kinships other than 1C produced only slight increases in offspring mortality. Evidence on the relationship between the demographic transition and the increase in premature deaths due to genetic factors was obtained through a principal component analysis (95.1% of variance accounted for). During the initial stages of the demographic transition, the population experienced substantial elevations in mean family size, natural increase of the population, frequency of close consanguineous matings (1C), and death rate due to congenital anomalies and perinatal diseases. These findings are of interest for the health services of many developing societies in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, which are nowadays immersed in the demographic transition process.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1986

[Demographic transformation in the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy: early fertility decline and the theory of the "demographic transition"].

"The author attempts to expose and explain important elements of the demographic transition in the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy in the last third of the nineteenth century. This is done on the basis of regional differences and time differences of the Coale-Indices (Index of marital fertility, Index of proportion married and Index of overall fertility)." The author considers the differences between marital fertility in rural Hungary and in industrial Austria at the beginning of the demographic transition (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Austria↗
PubMed1985

An econometric test of structural change in the demographic transition.

"The structural change model of the demographic transition developed by Easterlin and others is explored empirically by applying the Brown, Durbin and Evans test of structural change to annual data from the transitions of Sweden, Norway, England and Wales, and Finland. The evidence strongly supports the structural change model over traditional models (based on gradual changes in explanatory variables), indicating a supply response of fertility to declining illness and death during the early stages of transition, and a demand response to the death of children during the latter stages, when families are likely to have achieved desired size."

Demography↗
PubMed1983

Toward a social justice theory of demographic transition: lessons from India's Kerala State.

Recent research evidence, which suggests that observed demographic trends and patterns are largely consequences of broad structural changes in society, has raised serious doubts about the validity of traditional demographic theory and the framework for action it has generated. This theoretical essay 1st recasts classical demographic transition theory in general systems terms in order to make it consistent with the evidence and to place the processes of fertility and mortality in a larger social context. The demographic transition experience of Kerala State, India is then recounted to provide a concrete example of the demographic response in society to structural reforms based primarily on equity considerations.

Asia↗
PubMed1996

Demographic transition theory.

Demography is a science short on theory, rich in quantification. Nevertheless, demography has produced one of the best documented generalizations in the social sciences: the demographic transition. What is the demographic transition? Stripped to its essentials it is the theory that societies progress from a pre-modern regime of high fertility and high mortality to a post-modern regime of low fertility and low mortality. The cause of the transition has been sought in the reduction of the death rate by controlling epidemic and contagious diseases. Then, with modernization, children become more costly. Cultural changes weaken the importance of children. The increasing empowerment of women to make their own reproductive decisions leads to smaller families. Thus there is a change in values, emphasizing the quality of children rather than their quantity. In short, the fertility transition is becoming universal phenomenon, in which every country may be placed on a continuum of progress in the transition.

Demography↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Technological change and the demographic transition model--India, a case study.

The concept of the demographic transition is re-examined in the context of India with particular reference to the demographic impact of technological change. In particular, the author examines whether "the demographic effects of a developing capitalist economy are due to (a) the extent of capitalist transformation of an economy; and (b) the nature and level of imported technological change."

Asia↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Demographic transition in small countries.

Half of the world's 200 countries have less than 3.37 million inhabitants, and many of these small countries are often assumed to experience rapid demographic transition. This is true of many of the small island populations of the developing world, especially those with largely immigrant and pluralistic populations, unusual family structures, and rapid economic development. Smallness of population alone, however, is not sufficient to ensure rapid demographic transition and many small countries of mainland Africa have experienced little transition.

Demography↗
PubMed1988

[Demographic transition in Indonesia: 1971, 1980 and 1985].

Recent population problems in Indonesia include the high growth rate of the population. The government has made efforts to reduce fertility and mortality, such as improving health services and nutrition. In addition, the development programs in the beginning of REPELITA I (in 1970) have influenced the fertility and mortality rate. The consequences of these programs have initiated the demographic transition in Indonesia. However, only 8 provinces have reached 60% demographic transition. The remaining provinces need increased efforts to reduce the fertility and mortality rates.

Asia↗
PubMed2003

Human life histories and the demographic transition: a case study from Finland, 1870-1949.

The life histories of humans who were engaged in reproduction during the demographic transition were investigated. It was discovered that these life histories were subject to great changes during the period involving the birth cohorts from the years 1870-1949. Although the number of all and surviving children decreased during this period, the individual fitness values (lambda) of females remained quite even. The lambda values are sensitive not only to reproductive quantity but also to the timing of reproduction. Therefore, the effective change in female fitness during the demographic transition may not be as dramatic as previously thought. When studying the level of selection (or rather the opportunity for selection), it was found that mortality selection steadily decreased to a very low level. However, fertility selection and total selection, which were relatively low for the cohorts 1870-1889, increased before the steep decrease that was detected for the cohorts 1930-1949. The situation reflects the presence of considerable variance in fertility for the cohorts 1890-1929, when the mean fertility was decreasing. A previously found trade-off between female longevity and reproductive success appeared less significant, apparently due to the presence of more plentiful resources and voluntary limitation of reproduction. The deviation from the potential fitness maximization and the presence of subfertility have become prevalent in human populations.

Adult↗
PubMed1992

[[The theory of demographic transition revisited]].

The author presents a brief discussion of the theory of demographic transition using data for Japan for the 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s. The conclusion is that "cultural differences gave rise to appreciable changes in fertility, but economic status differences did not cause much variation in fertility. This also...[indicates] that cultural factors through which fertility decline has been diffusing [among] classes are important in determining fertility behaviour in Japan." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Asia↗